Assignment 2: Project Topic Interests
Disaster Risk Reduction and Conflict Mitigation in Programming, Kenya Case Study
Summary
In many countries and international organizations, disaster risk reduction and conflict
prevention/conflict resolution/peace building have been handled quite separately, even though both
are related to incidence of humanitarian emergencies and the requirement for response. Kenya faces
multiple hazards: widespread droughts have affected large parts of the country in 2000, 2006 and 2010,
and floods and other natural disasters have been a frequent occurrence in some parts of the country.
Conflict and human-made crises are also common: conflict in pastoral areas is frequently associated
with resource competition during droughts. Pastoral conflict has been exacerbated by proximity to
national boundaries and the flow of small arms from neighboring countries.
Kenya has a well-organized drought management system in place and another government body, the
National Steering Committee on Peace Building and Conflict Management fulfills a similar function with
regard to conflict. The structure of many international organizations working in Kenya (as elsewhere) is
similar: organizations often have units or teams working on conflict resolution or peace building, on
humanitarian response, and on disaster risk reduction—but these groups are often organizationally
separated and working relatively autonomously from each other—not necessarily working towards
common objectives in the same place. Similar language is used to describe similar activities, but the
activities themselves are often not joined up or part of the same strategic plan. The negative
consequences of the interface between conflict and disaster can be worsened by separate
organizational responses to the situation, either blind to the prevailing environment of conflict or the
natural disaster risk.1
Where disaster and conflict intersect, future risks of crisis are increased, mitigating capacities
undermined, and recovery efforts hampered. A self-reinforcing spiral of insecurity can increase
vulnerability and set the scene for a disaster, which can then fuel more conflict, further eroding
household resilience. Given the varied degrees of complexity found in conflict and disaster situations,
integration is not an easy solution, however given their cyclical impact as well as the similarities in root
causes and objectives it is no longer possible to effectively address disaster issues without also
addressing those associated with conflict. Contexts in which conflicts and disasters overlap are daily
realities for affected communities as well as the government, and the local and international
organizations that serve them. The goal of this project would be to analyze the geographical overlap
(likely lagged by several months or years depending on the length of the natural disaster) and therefore
the correlation between incidences of natural disasters and conflict; specifically pastoral conflict, given
its shared root causes with environmental degradation and natural disasters. The aim would be to
influence NGO, government, and other institutional policy towards more integrated DRR programming,
with a focus on both conflict and disaster risk.
Question 1: What is the geospatial relationship between natural disasters, pastoral conflict, and
humanitarian emergencies in Kenya (maybe focus on Arid and Semi Arid Areas (ASAL) region only)?
Vulnerabilities are highly dynamic in the context of conflict as well as natural disaster, and this, in turn,
affects exposure to the threats associated with both, and are exacerbated in contexts where the two
1
UNDP (2011) Disaster Conflict Interface Comparative Experiences. United Nations Development Program, Bureau
for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, pg 23
overlap. Interventions that do not account for this complex interplay have the potential to worsen
tensions and increase risk. Furthermore, it is not enough for projects concerned with disaster and
conflict risk reduction to run parallel of each other; instead interventions and analysis need to consider
combined effects. A clearer realization about the cyclical and self-reinforcing nature of conflicts and
natural disasters could lead to programming that would not accidentally exacerbate the risk of one while
trying to reduce the risk of the other in areas prone to both.
Question 2: What are some of the underlying and shared causes of natural disasters and pastoral conflict
in Kenya (maybe focus on Arid and Semi-Arid Areas (ASAL) region only)?
There are several cross-cutting issues that increase both conflict and natural disaster risk. Politicaleconomic factors can lie at the root of conflict, such as limited government investments, high youth
unemployment, and migration. Similarly, inadequate legislation and enforcement as well as poor
communal land management systems can lie at the root of the intersection between disaster and
conflict. A lack of cooperation over shared resources and poor environmental management, a poorly
regulated private sector or unabated illegal activity, poverty, weak institutions with limited capacity, and
low trust levels can prolong conflicts and degrade the environment, increasing natural disaster and
conflict risk. A better understanding of shared root causes could translate into more effective
prevention programming that simultaneously address conflict and natural disaster risk.
References:
1. Raleigh, Clionadh (2007) Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Political
Geography, Vol 26, Issue 6, pg 674 – 694
This paper uses GIS data and small geographical, rather than political, units of analysis to think through
and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and internal armed conflict. It looks at
issues of land degradation, freshwater availability, and population density. Their methodology of testing
the correlation between these factors and internal conflict could be applied to my project (particularly
Q2), except I would also include natural disaster variables, such as incidence of drought and flooding.
2. UNDP (2011) Disaster Conflict Interface Comparative Experiences. United Nations Development
Program, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery
This report looks at nine country case studies, of which Kenya is one, where conflict and natural
disasters are both present. It discusses how programming can further exacerbate the risk of either
conflict or natural disasters, as well as provides examples of effective integrated programming. Though
this paper does not have a specific geospatial focus, its discussion is centered on programming where
conflict and disaster geographically overlap and some of their shared causal variables.
Existing Data Sources:
FAO Food Security and Vulnerability Mapping
Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Set
Kenya Census
But I would have to look for additional information that would map the geographical extent of droughts
and flooding, as well as some of the mitigating variables such as land degradation, Moran population,
pastoral livestock migratory paths, flow of small arms?, pastoral versus agricultural livelihoods, etc.