STATE OF ISRAEL MINISTRY OF FINANCE Chief Economist Department – Research, State Revenue & International Affairs Economic Highlights Presentation 2nd Quarter 2014 (As of July 21st) In any case of information derived from sources external to the Ministry of Finance, such sources are mentioned at the bottom of each item www.financeisrael.mof.gov.il Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 2 Economic Figures Criteria 2012 2013 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 GDP (Current prices in $B)* 257.5 291.5 68.2 73.0 74.9 75.5 75.8 Real GDP growth rate (% change) 3.4% 3.3% 2.1% 4.4% 2.0% 3.3% 2.9% $32,565 $36,187 $8,521 $9,080 $9,272 $9,308 $9,303 GDP per capita growth rate (%, constant prices) 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% Exports (goods & services), $B* 93.1 95.1 23.3 24.7 21.8 25.2 25.1 GDP per capita (Current $) (As % of GDP) Imports (goods & services), $B* 36.2% 92.6 32.6% 91.4 34.2% 22.0 33.8% 22.6 29.2% 23.6 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 33.4% 23.2 33.2% 23.3 (As % of GDP) 36.0% 31.4% 32.2% 31.0% 31.5% 30.8% 30.7% Unemployment rate 6.9% 6.2% 6.6% 6.7% 6.0% 5.8% 5.8% *Using a periodic average exchange rate Sources: CBS, IMF 3 Economic Figures Criteria 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public debt (As % of GDP) 74.7% 73.2% 75.3% 71.7% 69.8% 68.4% 67.3% General government expenditure (As % of GDP) 42.6% 41.6% 41.8% 41.0% 40.4% 40.2% 40.3% Current account surplus (As % of GDP) 3.2% 1.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2.5% Inflation rate (CPI, yearly average, % change) 0.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.7% 3.5% 1.7% 1.5% Budget deficit (Central) (As % of GDP) 0.0% 2.1% 4.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.9% 3.2% Sources: CBS, IMF 4 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 5 GDP and Business GDP Annual rate of change, constant prices, 2005 6 GDP Growth Israel compared to advanced economies, annual rate of change, constant prices Since 2004, Israel’s growth rate has exceeded the average growth rate of advanced economies. In 2009, as most of the world experienced a decline in GDP, Israel experienced a 1.2% growth in it’s GDP. Data source: OECD, Euro Area and US – OECD database. Israel - CBS, MoF * Forecast Source: CBS, OECD, Eurostat, BEA 7 GDP Components Real Annual Percentage Change Effects of the global economic crisis Source: CBS 8 GDP per Capita $ U.S, Current prices, Current PPP, 2013 (or last available data) Source: OECD 9 Output Gap As percentage of Potential GDP, 2013 The actual - potential GDP Difference. Positive index means that actual output is higher than potential. Additional Sources: OECD Estimates 10 Stock Exchange Indices Percentage Change, the change since the beginning of period till the end of period Additional Sources: TASE, Bloomberg 11 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 12 Exports of Goods and Services As a share of GDP Effects of the global economic crisis 13 Main Export Destinations As a share of total exports Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 14 Main Trading Partners $ US Billions, 2013 * The data on trade with Hong-Kong is added to the data regarding China Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 15 Current Account Surplus As % of GDP Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 16 Foreign Investments $ US Billions * In 2006, a large acquisition by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. was included in the data. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 17 Exchange Rates 30 June 2014 vs 31 December 2013 The change in the specified currency relative to the $ US. A decrease means an appreciation of the specified currency relative to the $ US. Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service 18 Terms of Trade 2005 average = 100 Terms of Trade = Export Prices to Import Prices Ratio Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 19 Israel’s Free Trade Agreements 1985 1992 USA 2013 Colombia* QIZ Agreements 1998 Jordan 2004 Egypt EFTA 1997 Turkey 1997 Canada 1999 Mexico 2000 European Union (Association Agreement) 2007 MERCOSUR * Yet to be ratified More comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 20 Bilateral Investment Treaties Albania Cyprus Hungary* Argentina Czech Republic India Armenia El Salvador Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Estonia South Korea Belarus Ethiopia Latvia Bulgaria Georgia Lithuania China Germany Moldova Croatia* Guatemala Macedonia* *Comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 21 Bilateral Investment Treaties Thailand Montenegro Turkey Myanmar** Turkmenistan Poland Ukraine Romania Uruguay Serbia Uzbekistan Slovakia Slovenia* South Africa** *Comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website ** Yet to be ratified 22 Economic Organizations Membership in main international economic organizations Israel is a member of leading international economic organizations: • United Nations Organizations • United Nations Agencies • World Bank Group • International Monetary Fund • OECD • WTO • Regional Organizations • Inter-Governmental Organizations • Pacific Alliance (observer) More comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 23 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 24 Unemployment and Participation As % of total labor force Since the 2nd quarter of 2009 unemployment is relatively decreasing, with a gradual increase in the participation rate since the beginning of 2010. * April and May average. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 25 Unemployment Rate Latest available data Additional Sources: OECD 26 Job Creation Change in the number of employees Effects of the global economic crisis Annual average relative to previous year average. * January to May average seasonally adjusted and annualised. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 27 Employment Rate People aged over 15, latest available quarterly data Additional Sources: OECD, Euro Stat 28 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 29 General Government Expenditure As % of GDP Source: CBS 30 General Government Tax Burden As % of GDP Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, OECD 31 General and Central Budget Deficit As % of GDP Source: CBS, MoF 32 Public Debt As % of GDP Effects of the global economic crisis Source: CBS, MoF 33 Public Debt As % of GDP, international comparison Source: CBS, MoF, OECD 34 Avoidance of Double Taxation Austria Denmark India Belarus Estonia Ireland Belgium Ethiopia Italy Brazil Finland Jamaica Bulgaria France Japan Canada Georgia Latvia China Germany Lithuania Croatia Greece Luxembourg Czech Republic Hungary Malta More comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 35 Avoidance of Double Taxation Mexico Russia Taiwan Moldova Singapore Thailand Netherlands Slovak Republic Turkey Norway Slovenia UK Panama South Africa Ukraine Philippines South Korea USA Poland Spain Uzbekistan Portugal Sweden Vietnam Romania Switzerland More comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 36 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payment 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 37 Inflation Rate Rate of change in consumer price index Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 38 Interest Rate Source: Bank of Israel 39 Central Bank’s Interest Rates International Comparison Source: Specified Countries’ Central Banks 40 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 41 Industrial Production Average Annual Growth - 2014 average relative to 2004 average Total industrial production grew by 3.6% Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 42 Industrial Export Current U.S. $ Billions, and the share of high tech and mid high tech sectors in the Israeli goods exports 80% 80.4% 77.4% 76.6% 79.5% 81% 83.6% 80.9% 76.3% 75.4% 73.2% 75.4% 72.5% * January to June data seasonally adjusted and annualised Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 43 Israel is a World Leader in Science, Technology, and Innovation Civilian R&D as % of GDP, 2012 (or latest available data) 1st in quality of scientific research institutions** 1st in public expenditure on education* 1st for innovative capacity* 2nd for entrepreneurship being widespread amongst its managers* 5th in PCT patents applications per million population** 6th for strength of investor protection** 6th for Nobel Prizes per capita in the fields of physics, chemistry, physiology, medicine and economics since 1950* Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014 “The country’s main strengths remain its world-class capacity for innovation (4th), which rests on highly innovative businesses that benefit from the presence of the world’s best research institutions geared toward the needs of the business sector. Israel’s excellent innovation capacity, which is supported by the government’s public procurement policies, is reflected in the country’s high number of patents (5th). Its favorable financial environment, particularly evident in the ease of access to venture capital (8th), has contributed to making Israel an innovation powerhouse..” Source: OECD. * International Institute for Management Development (IMD) Global Competitiveness Yearbook 2013. ** World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014. *** Calculated by SNA 2008 44 Israel in IMD Rankings IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013 (2) USA 1 (3) Switzerland 2 (1) Hong Kong 3 (5) Sweden 4 (4) Singapore 5 (8) Norway 6 (6) Canada 7 (16) UAE 8 (9) Germany 9 (10) Qatar 10 (7) Taiwan 11 (13) Denmark 12 (12) Luxemburg 13 (11) Netherlands 14 (14) Malaysia 15 The Institute for Management Development ranked Israel 19th out of 60 countries for 2013. Israel has been ranked 1st innovative capacity and 4th at economy resilience. (15) Australia 16 (20) Ireland 17 (18) United Kingdom 18 (19) Israel 19 (17) Finland 20 Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013 for 45 Israel in IMD Rankings Israel’s ranking compared to other IMD countries, Business Efficiency and Infrastructure Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013 Israel’s ranking compared to other IMD countries, Economic Performance and Government Efficiency 46 Israel in WEF Rankings World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014 The World Economic Forum ranked Israel 27th out of 148 countries for 2013-2014 in terms of competitiveness. The Forum also ranked Israel: 1st in Quality of scientific research institutions 4th in Capacity for Innovation 5th in Firm-level technology absorption 6th in Strength of investor protection 6th in Nature of competitive advantage 6th in Company spending on R&D 5th in PCT patents, applications/million pop. And 8th in Venture Capital Availability Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014 47 Cooperation in Industrial R&D North America New York Massachusetts Maryland Virginia Wisconsin Colorado Illinois Oregon BIRD (Foundation) Ontario CIIRDF (Foundation) South America Argentina Uruguay Brazil Europe France Russia Italy ( and Trento county) Asia Germany China (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Greece Shenzhen, Federal) Czech Republic India Bulgaria Lithuania Slovenia SIIRD-Singapore (Foundation) Denmark KORIL-RDF-Korea (Foundation) Hungary Turkey Portugal Finland Sweden Australia Ireland (Victoria) Spain Cyprus Netherlands * Through EUREKA (40 country Multilateral Initiative) More comprehensive information is available on the Israel Ministry of Finance website 48 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payment 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 49 Learn More Visit the Israel Ministry of Finance English website for more information: About the Ministry Economic Overview of Israel Ministry of Finance publications and reports Other publications and reports on the Israeli economy Ministry press releases 50 Learn More Click to open: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Bank of Israel Ministry of Economy Ministry of Foreign Affairs Israel Government Portal 51 Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payment 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative Economy 8 Learn More 9 Contact 52 Contact Mr. Oded Keneresh, CPA Mr. Daniel Hadow Ericson Dr. Amichai Fishler Overseas Economic Information Chief Economist Department Ministry of Finance State of Israel Follow us on Twitter Send us an email: odedk@mof.gov.il danielh-e@mof.gov.il amichai@mof.gov.il Follow us on Flickr Visit our Website Follow us on Linkedin Follow us on YouTube Subscribe to our RSS Feeds Subscribe to our Newsletters 53