1-1 What is Statistics? Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2 When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: 1. Explain what is meant by statistics. 2. Identify the role of statistics in the development of knowledge and everyday life. 3. Explain what is meant by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. 4. Distinguish between a qualitative variable and a quantitative variable. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-3 5. Distinguish between a discrete variable and a continuous variable. 6. Collect data from published and unpublished sources. 7. Distinguish among the nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio levels of measurement. 8. Identify abuses of statistics. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4 9. Gain an overview of the art and science of statistics. We recommend that you read this chapter at least twice, once at the beginning and once at the end of your course! Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5 …it is the art and science of… collecting What is Meant by Statistics? organizing presenting data drawing inferences from a sample of information about an entire population as well as predicting and developing policy analysis Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6 in everyday life Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Who uses Statistics? 1-7 Those using Statistical techniques include : Marketers Accountants Hospitals Investors Sports people Statisticians Economists Consumers Quality Controllers Educators Politicians Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Physicians Who uses Statistics? Weather Forecasters Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-8 Who uses Statistics? Sports Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-9 1 - 10 Types of Statistics Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Types of Statistics Descriptive Methods of… collecting organizing presenting and analyzing data Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 11 Inferential Science of… making inferences about a population, based on sample information. Identify the following… Descriptive A. A Gallup poll found that 83% of the people in a survey knew which country won the gold medal in Men’s Hockey in 2002. B. The accounting department of a firm will select a sample of invoices to check for accuracy of all the invoices of the company. C. Wine tasters sip a few drops of wine to make a decision with respect to all the wine waiting to be released for sale. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 12 Inferential The Method of Experimentation 1 - 13 We start off with particular observations from the real world and draw conclusions about the general patterns in the real world! 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Define the experimental goal or a working hypothesis Design an experiment Chapters 8 and 12 Collect data Estimate the values/relations Chapters 3 and 4 Draw inferences Chapters 5,7,8 and 9 Predict and prepare policy analysis Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Inductive Method The Method of Experimentation Statistical Techniques Experimental Design & Data Collection Objective or WorkingHypothesis Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 14 Deductive Method Definitions & Assumptions Rules of Logic Implications or Hypotheses 1 - 15 A study was undertaken to estimate the average height of penguins in Antarctica. Let’s review the steps they would take to prepare the estimate. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 16 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 17 A population is a collection of all possible individuals, objects, or measurements of interest Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 18 From Take a …which are deemed to be representative of the What we now need is… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 19 Take a Measurement for each one in the sample Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Record 1 - 20 …to put the data into a readable and understandable format! Displaying Data Results Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 21 Two methods that can be used to ‘see’ what the data conveys are Tables and Graphs/Charts More on these in chapter 2… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 22 Tables … are an efficient method of displaying data and depicting data accurately. e.g. More on these in chapter 2… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 23 Line Pie Bar More on these in chapter 2… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 24 Why take a sample instead of studying every member of the population? Costs of surveying the entire population may be too large or prohibitive Destruction of elements during investigation Accuracy of results More in chapter 8 … Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 25 Data are everywhere Statistical techniques are used to make many decision that affect our lives No matter what your future line of work, you will make decisions that involve data. An understanding of statistical methods will help you make these decisions more effectively. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 26 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Types of Data A Variable a characteristic of a population or sample that is of interest to us Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 27 Types of Data Variables Qualitative Categorical Observations Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Quantitative Numerical Observations 1 - 28 Variables Qualitative – or Attribute Country of Birth U.K. Eye Colour Germany Blue Gender Taiwan Brown Male China Hazel India Female Green Japan Red Russia Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 29 Variables 1 - 30 Quantitative – Numeric Minutes to end of Class 55 Number of 45 Children in 30 a Family 5 0 1 2 3 4 … Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Number of Two-Door Number of Garages Satisfied in a Street Maple Leafs Fans 10 20 30 40 ... 0 20 30 40 … Variables 1 - 31 Quantitative … can be classified as either Numerical Observations Discrete Discrete or Continuous Characteristics … can only assume certain values and there are usually “gaps” between values e.g. - Number of bedrooms in a house - Number of hammers sold (1,2,3,…etc) Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Variables 1 - 32 Quantitative … can be classified as either Discrete or Continuous Numerical Observations Characteristics Continuous … can assume any value within a specified range! e.g. - Pressure in a tire - Weight of a pork chop - Height of students in a class Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary of Types of Variables 1 - 33 Data Qualitative Quantitative Categorical Observations Numerical Observations Discrete Continuous (number of children) (time used for an exam) Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 34 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources of Statistical Information Published Data Statistical Abstracts Weather Sports Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 35 Sources of Statistical Information 1 - 36 www.strategis.gc.ca www.bankofcanada.ca Internet Government of Canada & Provinces www.gc.ca www.theweathernetwork.com www.mcgrawhill.ca/college/lind Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources of Statistical Information 1 - 37 www.census.gov www.bls.gov/ International www.un.org Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development www.oecd.org IMF www.imf.org www.worldbank.org/ Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources of Statistical Information 1 - 38 Commissioned surveys: To develop information for the survey that they are doing, pollsters often contact the selected ‘sample population’. For Example…At home, over the telephone, by mail, by email, in the street, and at shopping malls! How to collect data… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 39 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 40 Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 41 Nominal Data can only be classified into categories or counted and cannot be arranged in any particular order Example M & Ms Category: Candy Classification: By Colour only (No natural order) Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 42 Nominal Example M & Ms Mutually Exclusive: …where an individual, object, or measurement is included in ONLY ONE CATEGORY Exhaustive: …where each individual, object, or measurement MUST APPEAR in one of the categories Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 43 Ordinal …involves data arranged in some order, but the differences between data values cannot be determined or are meaningless! Example During a taste test of 4 soft drinks: Mello Yello was ranked number……..…. 1. Sprite number……………………………. 2. Seven Up number..…………………..…... 3. Orange Crush number ….……………….4. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 44 Interval …similar to the Ordinal Level, with the additional property that meaningful amounts of differences between data values can be determined. There is no natural zero point Example Temperature on the Celsius scale. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 45 Ratio …the Interval Level with an inherent zero starting point. Differences and ratios are meaningful for this level of measurement. Examples Monthly income Distance of surgeons travelled by manufacturer’s representatives per month Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 46 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Benjamin Disraeli said… 1 - 47 “There are three kinds of lies… Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 48 Figures don’t lie. Liars figure! Caution Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Caution 1 - 49 As you begin to study statistical methods, you are cautioned to take what you see published as “statistical facts” with a healthy grain of skepticism! … an average may not be representative of all the data … graphs can also be misleading … be sure to study the sampling methods For Example Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Caution Review the following three slides and notice the effect that the different scales have on your interpretation of the pattern between Crime and Unemployment Rates. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 50 1 - 51 Chart 1-11A 1986 - 1999 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 52 Chart 1-11B 1986 -1999 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 7 8 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 10 11 12 1 - 53 Chart 1-11C 1986 -1999 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 7 8 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 10 11 12 Test your learning… www.mcgrawhill.ca/college/lind Online Learning Centre for quizzes extra content data sets searchable glossary access to Statistics Canada’s E-Stat data …and much more! Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 - 54 1 - 55 This completes Chapter 1. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.