Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate 16 September 2014 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Contents Glossary ...........................................................................................................................................i Key findings .....................................................................................................................................i Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... iii 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Purpose of the report ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Structure of the report ........................................................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Colocation .............................................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Urban renewal ....................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Framework for analysis .......................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Stakeholder consultations ..................................................................................................... 8 Approach ........................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Colocation options ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Urban renewal ..................................................................................................................... 16 Strategic assessment......................................................................................................... 20 4.1 Qualitative cost-benefit assessment .................................................................................... 20 4.2 Risk assessment ................................................................................................................... 24 Economic environment ..................................................................................................... 28 5.1 Economic trends .................................................................................................................. 28 5.2 Demographic trends ............................................................................................................ 31 Financial assessment......................................................................................................... 33 6.1 Methodology........................................................................................................................ 33 6.2 Costs and Benefits................................................................................................................ 35 6.3 Results .................................................................................................................................. 35 Options assessment .......................................................................................................... 38 7.1 Strategic alignment .............................................................................................................. 38 7.2 Risk versus strategic alignment ............................................................................................ 41 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 43 8.1 Next steps ............................................................................................................................ 43 References................................................................................................................................... 44 Appendix A : Consultations ......................................................................................................... 45 Record of stakeholder consultations .............................................................................................. 45 Appendix B : Stakeholder views .................................................................................................. 50 Canberra Racing Club ...................................................................................................................... 50 Canberra Harness Racing Club ........................................................................................................ 52 Canberra Greyhound Racing Club ................................................................................................... 54 Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2014 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Exhibition Park in Canberra ............................................................................................................. 56 Appendix C : Requirements for a new facility ............................................................................. 58 Limitation of our work..................................................................................................................... 69 Charts Chart 5.1 : Australian interest rates ............................................................................................ 28 Chart 5.2 : Housing investment as a share of GDP ..................................................................... 29 Chart 5.3 : ACT share of national population and output .......................................................... 30 Chart 5.4 : Total population in the ACT, 2044 ............................................................................. 31 Chart 5.5 : Long run annual population growth in the ACT ....................................................... 32 Chart 5.6 : Changing age demographics in the ACT to 2043 ...................................................... 32 Chart 6.1 : Projected BCR Ranges (ACT Government)................................................................. 36 Tables Table 2.1 : ACT Government dwelling sites 2013-14 to 2017-18.................................................. 6 Table 3.1 : Colocation options for analysis ................................................................................. 10 Table 3.2 : Estimate of relocation costs by category of cost ($ million) ..................................... 14 Table 4.1 : Qualitative cost-benefit assessment ......................................................................... 20 Table 4.2 : High-level risk assessment - colocation options ........................................................ 25 Table 4.3 : Options categorised by risk ....................................................................................... 26 Table 6.1 : Colocation Options and Corresponding Development Scenarios ............................. 33 Table 6.2 : Key Parameters.......................................................................................................... 34 Table 6.3 : Assumed Nominal Indexation Rates .......................................................................... 34 Table 6.4 : Key Costs and Benefits Considered ........................................................................... 35 Table 6.5 : Projected BCRs........................................................................................................... 37 Table 7.1 : Options categorised by alignment with objectives ................................................... 40 Figures Figure 3.1 : EPIC site .................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3.2 : Thoroughbred Park site ............................................................................................ 17 Figure 7.1 : Alignment of colocation options to objectives ........................................................ 39 Figure 7.2 : Risk versus strategic alignment for colocation options ........................................... 42 Deloitte Access Economics ii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Glossary ACT Australian Capital Territory CRC Canberra Racing Club CHRC Canberra Harness Racing Club CGRC Canberra Greyhound Racing Club EPC Exhibition Park Corporation EPIC Exhibition Park in Canberra ICRC Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission Deloitte Access Economics Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Key findings The ACT Government committed in the 2012 election to undertake a feasibility study into the colocation of the ACT racing codes. Colocation of the exhibition facilities with the racing codes is also being considered, given the proximity of Exhibition Park in Canberra (EPIC) to Thoroughbred Park and because the Canberra Harness Racing Club (CHRC) is currently located on the EPIC site. Deloitte Access Economics has assessed ten colocation options for the Canberra Racing Club (CRC), CHRC, the Canberra Greyhound Racing Club (CGRC) and EPIC. Colocation options considered Colocation option Land made available Option 1 - CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidation on site Part of EPIC site Option 1a - CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC at a greenfield site Full EPIC site Option 2 - CRC, CHRC and CGRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidation on site Part of EPIC site Option 3 - CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park Full EPIC site Option 4 - CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 5 - CRC, CHRC and CGRC at a greenfield site, EPIC at a separate greenfield site EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 6 - CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Full EPIC site Option 7 - CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Full EPIC site Option 8 - CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC consolidation on site Option 8a - CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC at a greenfield site Part of EPIC site Full EPIC site The analysis considered the strategic and financial viability of each colocation option. The strategic analysis considered the qualitative costs and benefits of each of the options for the ACT racing codes, EPIC and the ACT Government. For the ACT racing industry, the benefits of colocation are increased scale of operations, shared facilities and reduced administration and maintenance costs. Colocation also provides the opportunity for the racing industry to develop a racing entertainment precinct, beyond what each code can achieve independently. Deloitte Access Economics i Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities These benefits would need to be balanced against increased governance and operational complexity that may result from colocation. The potential short-term disruption to activities at Thoroughbred Park or Symonston to allow for construction work and consolidation of existing infrastructure would also need to be considered. Similarly, for EPIC the key trade-off is between the synergies from colocation, balanced against the increased governance and operational complexity. For the ACT Government, the key trade-off is between the costs of the colocation and the benefits from urban renewal. The relocation costs for the colocation options are estimated to be between approximately $20 million and $220 million depending on the option, thus in order for colocation to work, the ACT Government would need to explore urban renewal options to finance the colocation options. Our analysis suggests that there are a number of colocation options that are align with the strategic and financial considerations for the ACT Government and are worthy of further consideration: • Option 4 or 5 – colocate the racing codes and EPIC at a greenfield site, with an option for EPIC to be at a separate greenfield site; • Option 6 or 7 – colocate the CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site, with or without CGRC; • Option 8 or 8a – colocate CHRC and CGRC at Symonston with EPIC either consolidated on its existing site or at a greenfield site. This option is more complicated than colocation at a greenfield site but could be pursued if a suitable greenfield site cannot be identified; and • Staged approach – implement Option 6 or 7 in the first instance, with a long-term plan to achieve colocation of all the racing codes and EPIC (i.e. Option 4 or 5). The ACT Racing Clubs were also given the opportunity to review and provide comments on our findings. In summary, their views were: • The Canberra Racing Club has firmly resolved that it is not in the best interests of the Canberra Racing Club to proceed further with any future relocation. • The Canberra Harness Racing Club is comfortable with the preferred options and would welcome the opportunity to be part of the first stage of development, if the project was to proceed. • The Canberra Greyhound Racing Club is content to stay at Symonston. However, if further analysis of the cost and benefits of a move to a greenfields site was positive, the Canberra Greyhound Racing Club would be supportive of a move. We would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the ACT racing clubs and EPIC in the preparation of this report. Their assistance was essential to the analysis of the options and we thank them for their time and contributions to the study. Deloitte Access Economics ii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Executive Summary Deloitte Access Economics has been engaged by the ACT Government to consider the feasibility of colocating the three ACT racing clubs – the Canberra Racing Club, the Canberra Harness Racing Club and the Canberra Greyhound Racing Club – onto a single site. The potential to colocate Exhibition Park in Canberra (EPIC) with the racing codes has also been assessed. In addition to providing benefits for the racing industry and EPIC, the potential colocation could also provide opportunities for urban renewal along Flemington Road. This report is Stage 1 of the ACT Government’s analysis of the colocation options for the racing codes and EPIC. The outcomes of Stage 1 will determine the second stage of work on possible colocation and whether or not the Territory will pursue these options further. Background The ACT racing industry consists of the Canberra Racing Club (CRC) located at Thoroughbred Park, the Canberra Harness Racing Club (CHRC) located on the EPIC site and the Canberra Greyhound Racing Club (CGRC) located in Symonston. EPIC is a Territory-owned exhibition centre and is the largest of its kind in the ACT and surrounding region. Colocation options In consultation with the ACT Government, Deloitte Access Economics has identified ten options for colocation of the racing clubs and EPIC (as shown in Table i). These can be grouped into three broad categories, whereby some or all of the clubs and EPIC are colocated at: the CRC’s existing site at Thoroughbred Park; a yet to be determined greenfield location; or the CGRC’s existing site at Symonston. Deloitte Access Economics iii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table i: Colocation options for analysis CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Land made available Option 1 Option 1a Option 2 Option 3 EPIC site Thoroughbred Park Part of EPIC site1 * EPIC site Part of EPIC site Greenfield site (to be determined) Option 4 EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 5 * EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 6 EPIC site Option 7 EPIC site Symonston (current Greyhound track) Option 8 Option 8a Part of EPIC site * EPIC site * Under these options, EPIC is located at a separate greenfield site. Colocating some or all of the clubs and EPIC will require new facilities to be built or existing facilities to be upgraded, which is estimated to cost between $22.2 million and $223.1 million depending on the colocation option. These costs are presented in Table ii. Table ii: Estimate of colocation costs Colocation option Minimum range of facilities Full range of facilities 1 $54.0m $75.5m 1a $92.1m $125.0m 2 $89.6m $122.6m 3 $163.8m $223.1m 4 $125.6m $165.3m 5 $128.7m $169.5m 6 $68.6m $91.5m 7 $60.0m $80.3m 8 $22.2m $31.8m 8a $63.7m $85.2m The costs were developed based on consultations with the racing clubs and EPIC, who were asked to identify the minimum range of facilities that they would require at a new location, 1 The CHRC is currently a tenant on the EPIC site. If they are relocated some of the EPIC site would become available for development. Deloitte Access Economics iv Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities and the full range of facilities that would enable them to achieve the strategic and commercial goals for their businesses. Our analysis assumes that the ACT Government will bear the costs of relocation. The highest costs occur under Option 3, when all of the racing clubs and EPIC are colocated at Thoroughbred Park. The high cost of this option is driven by the complexity of colocation at Thoroughbred Park. We have assumed it will require most of the current facilities to be rebuilt to accommodate the additional racing codes and EPIC. We have also assumed that a multi-story carpark will need to be built due to space constraints. The feasibility of this option could increase if neighbouring blocks of land could be used, which would increase the size of the sites. However, this is yet to be analysed and would require negotiation with relevant stakeholders. The lowest costs arise for Option 8, where the CHRC is colocated with the CGRC at Symonston. This is due to the lower costs required to build facilities for CHRC and CGRC compared to the CRC and EPIC. Urban renewal In order for the ACT Government to make the colocation options a reality, it needs to explore options for urban renewal of the land made available under the colocation options. Without the proceeds from redevelopment, the ACT Government will be unable to finance the colocation options. The colocation options deliver three potential parcels of land for redevelopment2. Scenario 1 - the full EPIC site; Scenario 2 - the full EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites; and Scenario 3 - part of the EPIC site. The redevelopment scenarios also need to be considered in light of Deloitte Access Economics’ research into the ACT property market. In recent years, the ACT property market has bucked the national trend and there has been a surge in residential housing construction. However, the ACT property market is expected to contract in the future, and this will likely be driven by further reductions in the Australian Public Service, and a reduction in the population growth rate driven by demographic ageing. Strategic considerations The report identified the qualitative costs and benefits of each of the options which provide an indication of the trade-offs for the ACT Government in deciding which option to pursue. There are different trade-offs for the racing industry, EPIC and the ACT Government, which are summarised below. For the racing industry, the key trade-off is between the benefits that colocation will bring in terms of increased scale of operations, shared facilities and reduced administration and maintenance costs, balanced against the increased governance and operational complexity 2 Note that the redevelopment of the CGRC’s site at Symonston was not considered as its location limits its suitability for residential development. Deloitte Access Economics v Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities that may result. Colocation also provides the opportunity for the racing industry to develop a racing entertainment precinct, beyond what each code could achieve independently. The potential short-term disruption to current activities at Thoroughbred Park or Symonston to allow for construction work and consolidation of existing infrastructure would also need to be considered, depending on the option chosen. For EPIC, the potential benefits would include reduced operational costs through a smaller footprint or colocation with the racing industry. The opportunities offered by a new site would include new purpose built facilities and, depending on the location, no longer being subject to noise constraints. These would have to be balanced against potential relocation costs and disruption to other tenants on the EPIC site, a loss of revenue from CHRC (depending on the option) and potential scheduling conflicts with the racing clubs. This is likely to be complex given the range of activities on the EPIC site. For the ACT Government, the key trade-off is between the benefits that redevelopment would bring, beyond the financial return, such as urban renewal and improving the entrance to the ACT, compared to the complexity and costs of the colocation. This includes negotiations with the racing industry, acquisition of land and possible new transport infrastructure (e.g. access roads or public transport routes) to a new site. This study also assessed the viability of the colocation options which would be financed by redevelopment scenarios and the result are included below. A potential greenfield site for the colocation has not yet been identified. If the ACT Government wishes to pursue colocation to a greenfield site, it will need to consider the costs of access and the opportunity cost of allocating this land for colocation. Risk assessment For colocation to work and to enable the benefits of colocation to be achieved, the ACT Government and the racing industry would need to work together. However, there remain risks associated with the colocation options that the ACT Government will need to be mindful of in deciding which option to pursue. Deloitte Access Economics undertook a high-level risk assessment of each of the colocation options. The colocation options were assessed against the following risks: Achievability risk – can the option be implemented? Will it require significant changes to current legislative or planning processes? Commercial risk – what is the risk that the option will not be commercially viable? Operational risk – what is the risk that the option will negatively impact on the operations of the racing industry or EPIC? Will the option disrupt the operation of the industry while construction occurs? Financial risk – does the option expose the ACT Government to financial risks? Governance risk – does the option create risks for the governance structure of the new facility? Stakeholder risk – how are stakeholders likely to respond to the option? The summary of Deloitte Access Economics’ risk analysis is contained in Table iii. Deloitte Access Economics vi Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table iii: Colocation options categorised by risk Low risk Medium risk Medium-high risk High risk Options 6 and 7 Options 1, 1a and 2 Options 4 and 5 Option 3 CHRC and EPIC (with and without CGRC) at a greenfield site CHRC located at Thoroughbred Park with and without CGRC (EPIC consolidated or moved to greenfield site) Relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site (option for EPIC to be on a separate site) Locating all of the racing clubs and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park Options 8 and 8a CHRC and CGRC at Symonston (EPIC consolidated or moved to greenfield site) Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis. The low-risk options represent the most straightforward colocation options. These options are low risk because they are less complex for the racing codes and the ACT Government as they involve construction on a greenfield site and would not disrupt operations at existing facilities. There is also a lower governance risk and stakeholder risk as the options involve fewer parties and the governance processes can be determined from an equal starting point between all parties as the new site does not have any existing arrangements to take into account. Colocating CHRC at Thoroughbred Park is achievable and does not raise risks about having to separate different types of animals. If CGRC is also relocated to Thoroughbred Park, this would be more complex due to the requirement to fit additional facilities onto the site and provide appropriate physical separation between horses and dogs. The operational risk is manageable as there would be some disruption to the operations at CRC but it should not require CRC to significantly alter its racing or training schedule. These options would require negotiation with CRC to allow CHRC and CGRC to colocate at Thoroughbred Park. Relocating CHRC to Symonston is also assessed as medium risk but has a different profile of risks. This option has a high operational risk as it would likely require the full redevelopment of the site to fit all of the colocated facilities on the current Symonston site. The medium-high risk options have a higher risk rating because they involve all four parties. However, moving to a greenfield site makes the option more achievable as the new sites would be able to be designed without having to account for existing infrastructure. These options have the highest commercial risk because they involve the redevelopment and sale of the full EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites. The options would require negotiation with CRC about the ACT Government acquiring Thoroughbred Park. The high-risk option would require substantial redesign of the Thoroughbred Park site to fit all of the parties on the site and would likely require Thoroughbred Park to cease racing and training operations while the site is redeveloped. The financial risk is also high as there is significant uncertainty around how the option would be made to work (for example, fitting all of the tracks onto the site may require the tracks to be fitted one inside the other and to access the middle tracks may require construction of tunnels, which would be costly), which Deloitte Access Economics vii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities may further increase costs. This option would also require all parties to agree to new governance arrangements and requires CRC to agree to lease its land to the other parties. Cost-benefit assessment To realise the benefits from the colocation options, the options need to be financially viable for the ACT Government. Table iv presents the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of each of the three development scenarios for the ACT Government, under the different colocation options. The net impact on the ACT Government reflects the relocation costs, development cost and proceeds from urban renewal. As can be seen, most of the scenarios generate a positive BCR for the ACT Government, with the highest net benefits occurring under redevelopment scenario 2 (colocation of all parties to a greenfield site(s) and the redevelopment of the full EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites). The net benefit for the ACT Government is typically higher under a low density scenario due to the higher stamp duty rates which are levied on detached dwellings. Table iv: Benefit-cost ratio of options for the ACT Government Development Scenario Scenario 1: Full EPIC site, Low Density Scenario 2: Thoroughbred Park and EPIC, Low Density Scenario 3: Part EPIC site, Low Density Scenario 1: Full EPIC site, High Density Scenario 2: Thoroughbred Park and EPIC, High Density Scenario 3: Part EPIC site, High Density Colocation Option Low High Option 1a Option 3 Option 6 Option 7 Option 8a Option 4 Option 5 Option 1 Option 2 Option 8 Option 1a Option 3 Option 6 Option 7 Option 8a Option 4 Option 5 Option 1 Option 2 Option 8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 2.0 Estimates are in current prices with all cash flows indexed over time. Cash flows are discounted at a nominal discount rate of 9% p.a. over a 30 year evaluation period. A BCR that is greater than 1 is favourable and means the benefits are greater than the costs, a BCR that is less than one means the costs are greater than the benefits. Deloitte Access Economics viii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Assessment against objectives In 2011, the Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) released its report into the future of the ACT racing industry. It recommended that the ACT Government undertake a detailed investigation into the feasibility of colocating the three different racing codes at the one location. The ICRC concluded that the potential benefits for the racing industry from colocation are more efficient use of shared facilities, the better utilisation of capital across the three codes and increased standards of the facilities. Drawing on the findings of the ICRC’s report and the requirement for the ACT Government to benefit from urban renewal to deliver the colocation options, our analysis has been guided by two core objectives: Optimising investment and leveraging synergies for the racing industry and EPIC; and Optimising urban renewal in the ACT to enable financing of colocation alternatives. We have disaggregated these objectives into the following elements which provide detailed criteria against which to assess each of the options: Deliver a practical and achievable colocation solution. Increase operational efficiency and synergies for the racing industry and EPIC. Improve the financial sustainability of EPIC and the racing industry through enabling additional revenue opportunities. Address constraints at current sites (e.g. noise and governance constraints). Ensure financial viability of the colocation options for the ACT Government. Deliver colocation by undertaking urban renewal. The results of this analysis are contained in Table v. As can be seen, the assessment determined that options 4 and 5 (relocation of all of the racing codes and EPIC at a greenfield site) had the highest alignment with the overall objectives of the project. Table v: Overall alignment with objectives Low alignment Medium alignment High alignment Options 1, 1a, 2 and 3 Options 6 and 7 Options 4 and 5 These options involve colocating a mix of CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park. CHRC and EPIC (with and without CGRC) at a greenfield site Relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site (option for EPIC to be on a separate site) Options 8 and 8a CHRC and CGRC at Symonston (EPIC consolidated or moved to greenfield site) The options with the lowest alignment to the objectives for the colocation are the options that would involve moving the other racing codes and EPIC to Thoroughbred Park. These options would provide some synergies and operational efficiencies, however the complexity of colocation on an existing site mean the efficiencies are lower than they would be at a at a greenfield site. These options provide some opportunities for urban infill, but fewer than the other options as they would not involve developing the Thoroughbred Park site. Our analysis also shows that Options 2 and 3 are financially prohibitive and Deloitte Access Economics ix Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities unaffordable for the ACT Government, and while Options 1 and 1a are within the Government’s means, the net benefit to the ACT Government would be lower than under the other options. The options with a medium alignment would provide synergies and operational efficiencies for the racing industry and EPIC. Additional revenue opportunities would be possible and could be further enhanced through the design of a new site. These options may also address the current noise restrictions and could increase autonomy for CHRC. These options all provide an opportunity for urban renewal although not as much as the options including Thoroughbred Park. All of these options appear to be affordable for the ACT Government. However, the revenue to the ACT Government is lower because they do not involve developing Thoroughbred Park, although this is partly offset by lower relocation costs. The colocation of EPIC and CHRC at a greenfield site would not prevent the future colocation of CRC, and could be undertaken as a first step. The options with the highest alignment to the objectives for the colocation are the options that involve moving all of the racing codes and EPIC to a greenfield site or sites. These options would provide operational efficiencies and additional revenue opportunities, which could be included as part of the design of the new facilities. These options would also address the constraints of the current sites. They also provide the greatest opportunity for the ACT Government for urban renewal opportunities, and the ability to finance colocation. However, these options have a medium-high risk rating, which needs to be considered in deciding whether the comparative benefits of these options are worth the additional risk. Deloitte Access Economics x Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Risk versus strategic alignment In addition to the strategic alignment of each of the options, it is also important to consider the relative risks of each option. This is shown in the figure below. At this stage, the risk assessment has not considered what actions the ACT Government could take to mitigate or ameliorate the identified risks. Consideration of risk mitigation strategies would need to be undertaken as part of the next stage of analysis. Figure i: Risk versus strategic alignment for colocation options High strategic alignment Option 4 Option 5 Option 7 Option 8a Option 6 Option 8 High risk Low risk Option 1 Option 1a Option 3 Proposed colocation site Thoroughbred Park Option 2 Greenfield site Symonston Low strategic aligment Source: Deloitte Access Economics. Figure i shows that while Options 4 and 5 (relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site) have the highest strategic alignment, they also have a relatively higher risk profile than the options with a medium strategic alignment. Options 8 and 8a (relocating CHRC to Symonston, with EPIC remaining on site or moving to a greenfield site) have a lower strategic alignment but are also lower risk, compared to Options 4 and 5. Noting that these options would require CGRC to cease operations while new facilities were constructed and the CGRC are uncertain that this option would be able to be easily implemented due to concerns around topography of the current site. Options 6 and 7 (EPIC and CHRC relocated to a greenfield site, with and without CGRC), have a lower risk and only a slightly reduced strategic alignment compared with Options 4 and 5. Deloitte Access Economics xi Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Options 2 and 3 are not financially viable. Furthermore, all the options to colocate at Thoroughbred Park have a lower strategic alignment, with generally higher risk. Given that they also generate a lower (or negative) financial benefit, we consider that these options are not worth pursuing further. Conclusion Our analysis suggests that there are a number of colocation options that are feasible and align with the objectives for this project. Further, our analysis suggests that these options are also financially viable for the ACT Government. The colocation options that we have assessed as worthy of further consideration are: Option 4 or 5 – colocate the racing codes and EPIC at a greenfield site, with an option for EPIC to be at a separate greenfield site; Option 6 or 7 – colocate the CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site, with or without CGRC; Option 8 or 8a – colocate CHRC and CGRC at Symonston with EPIC either consolidated on its existing site or at a greenfield site. This option is more complicated than colocation at a greenfield site but could be pursued if a suitable greenfield site cannot be identified; and Staged approach – implement Option 6 or 7 in the first instance, with a long-term plan to achieve colocation of all the racing codes and EPIC (i.e. Option 4 or 5). Next steps The ACT Government may now wish to undertake further investigation of some of these options with the racing industry. There are two elements to the further work that is required to progress these options: Engagement with the racing industry; and Detailed analysis of the colocation options and urban renewal possibilities. Acknowledgments Deloitte Access Economics would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the ACT racing clubs and EPIC in the preparation of this report. Their assistance was essential to understanding how the options would operate, the facilities required under the different colocation options and providing the context and background for the report. We thank the ACT racing industry and EPIC for their time and contribution to the report. Deloitte Access Economics Deloitte Access Economics xii Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 1 Introduction The ACT Government is currently assessing the feasibility of colocating the three ACT racing clubs – the Canberra Racing Club, the Canberra Harness Racing Club and the Canberra Greyhound Racing Club – onto a single site. Colocation of Exhibition Park in Canberra (EPIC) with the racing codes is also being considered in light of the proximity of EPIC to Thoroughbred Park (the current site of the Canberra Racing Club) and because the Harness Racing Club is currently located at EPIC. The options for the new colocated site are either at Thoroughbred Park or a greenfield site that has yet to be identified. Economic Development within the Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate engaged Deloitte Access Economics to undertake a feasibility study of the colocation options for the three racing clubs and EPIC. The study includes three main sections: As assessment of the strategic benefits, costs and risks of each option to determine the nature of the benefits that could be realised, the likely costs for the ACT Government, racing codes, EPIC and users of the facility and to identify the risks of each option for these parties. An overview of the economic environment in the ACT to support the financial assessment of the colocation options. A cost-benefit analysis for each of the options to determine the impact of the options on the ACT Government. 1.1 Purpose of the report The purpose of this report is to assess the different options for the potential colocation of the racing codes and EPIC. This report is the first stage of the ACT Government’s analysis of the options for the racing codes and EPIC. The outcomes of Stage 1 will determine the second stage of work on possible colocation and whether or not the Territory will pursue these options further. Stage 1 does not include a detailed design of a colocated site, an assessment of the location of a potential greenfield site or the governance and operating arrangements for a colocated site. Further analysis would be required to understand these elements as part of a second stage of work, if the ACT Government chose to investigate this further. 1.2 Structure of the report The remainder of the report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 – outline of the broader ACT Government priorities that are relevant to this study and the framework for analysis for the report; Chapter 3 – our approach for the study, including the options that we have assessed and the key assumptions underpinning our analysis Deloitte Access Economics 1 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Chapter 4 – qualitative cost-benefit analysis and a high-level risk assessment of each of the colocation options; Chapter 5 – assessment of the economic and demographic trends in the ACT; Chapter 6 – cost-benefit analysis of each of the colocation options from the ACT Government’s perspective; Chapter 7 – overarching assessment of the colocation options; and Chapter 8 – key considerations and next steps for the ACT Government. The report also contains two appendices: Appendix A – summary of stakeholder consultations and the feedback from the ACT Racing Codes on the report. Appendix B – provides details of the views on the colocation from the racing industry and EPIC; and Appendix C – provides the requirements for a new facility for the racing industry and EPIC. Deloitte Access Economics 2 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 2 Background In 2010, the ACT Government directed the Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) to undertake a review of the ACT racing industry. The review was requested to consider an appropriate system of product payments; an appropriate funding outcome for the ACT racing industry; an appropriate allocation of ACT budget funding among the three racing clubs; and the future structure of the ACT racing industry. In 2011, the ICRC released its final Report into the future of racing in the ACT. The ICRC recommended that the ACT Government and the three racing clubs undertake a detailed investigation into the costs and benefits of replacing existing administrative structures and establishing a single independent administrative body to oversee the management of the three racing codes. Following this, the ICRC recommended that there should also be a detailed investigation into the feasibility of colocating the three different racing codes at one location, which the ACT Government committed to do in the 2012 election. This report considers the feasibility of the colocating the racing codes but does not consider changes to the governance structures of the racing clubs. The colocation of the racing industry may also provide additional vacant land along Flemington Road that will provide opportunities for urban renewal. This chapter provides details of the broader context that feeds into the analysis in this report in terms of colocation, urban renewal and the framework we have used to assess the colocation options. 2.1 Colocation 2.1.1 ACT racing industry The ACT racing industry consists of three clubs that represent the three racing codes: thoroughbred, harness and greyhound racing. The clubs are located at separate venues and are run independently. The Canberra Racing Club is located at Thoroughbred Park and the Club has a 99-year lease on the land that terminates in 2100. The facilities at Thoroughbred Park include two turf tracks, a synthetic track and a sand track, a grandstand with function facilities, a betting ring and offices for both race days and the general operation of the club, stables and training facilities, including an equine pool and horse walkers. The Club holds 25 races per year, with two big race days on Melbourne Cup day and Black Opal Stakes day. It is the largest training venue in New South Wales outside of Sydney, there are around 250 horses stabled at Thoroughbred Park and they train every day of the year. The Canberra Harness Racing Club is located at EPIC and the facilities are rented by the Club. They have access to a race track and a training track, a grand stand and stables. The Club holds 20 races per year and horses train every day of the year in the morning and evening. The Club is constrained in what other services it can offer because it leases the facilities from EPIC and does not own or have the right to build additional facilities. CHRC would support moving to a greenfield site where they have greater autonomy over the use Deloitte Access Economics 3 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities of the site, whereas moving to Thoroughbred Park would not address this concern. The Club is also constrained when it can hold races due to other events held at EPIC, for example, it cannot use the track when the Canberra Show is on. The Canberra Greyhound Racing Club is located at Symonston. It rents the land from the ACT Government at a rate of $14,000 per annum. The facilities at Symonston include a race track, kennels, a grandstand and administration buildings. The Club holds 44 races per year and trials twice per week. The land is also used for some additional purposes unrelated to greyhound racing, such as an outdoor fitness club which provides an additional source of revenue. The Club also allows Club Members to access the enclosed, off the leash, dog exercise areas to encourage responsible dog ownership, exercise and play. 2.1.2 Exhibition Park in Canberra Given the proximity of EPIC to Thoroughbred Park and the potential for synergies between EPIC and the racing codes, the investigation has been broadened to consider possible options to relocate EPIC. EPIC is a Territory-owned exhibition centre and is the largest of its kind in the ACT and surrounding region. EPIC hosts indoor and outdoor events for businesses and the community. Principal events include the Royal Canberra Show, Summernats Street Machine Car Festival, the National Folk Festival, the Capital Region Farmers’ Market, the Home and Leisure Show, Ski Expo and the National Wine Show. There are many other events that use part of the site for shorter periods each year, including trade fairs, warehouse sales and community events. There are also a number of long-term tenants that use the EPIC site, including the Royal National Capital Agricultural Society, the organisers of Summernats, the ACT Canine Association, the Canberra Harness Racing Club and the ACT German Shepherd Dog Association. EPIC is managed by the Exhibition Park Corporation (EPC). EPC’s mission as set out in its Annual Report (EPC 2013) is: “To provide an economic and environmentally sustainable venue facility, enriching the economic and cultural development of Canberra and the region by providing indoor and outdoor opportunities for entertainment, recreation and commercial interests.” In 2012-13, EPIC received the majority of its funding from user charges, $3,534,000 or 84% of total income. This included $202,000 or 5% from the ACT Government through user charges. EPIC also receives a small proportion of income from the Government as payments for outputs, $412,000 or 10% of total income in 2012-13 (EPC 2013). One of the objectives for the EPC is to become self-sufficient. Looking forward, EPC expects the estimated income for 2013-14 to increase with anticipated increases in events, camping revenue and additional income streams, such as the low cost tourist accommodation development. Deloitte Access Economics 4 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 2.2 Urban renewal In order for the colocation options to be implemented, it will require the ACT Government to realise benefits from urban renewal. Any urban renewal options will need to be considered in the context of the current planning policies and the other ACT Government urban renewal priorities. 2.2.1 Planning considerations The development of the EPIC and Thoroughbred sites will require consideration of the ACT land supply strategy, the Territory Plan and the National Capital Plan, because the EPIC site is located on the Federal Highway. The areas will also require rezoning from broad acre to allow for residential and commercial development. For the purposes of this report it is assumed that the ACT Government will rezone the land as appropriate. ACT Land Release Programs Each year the ACT Government prepares four-year Indicative Land Release Programs setting out the Government’s intended program of residential, commercial, industrial, community and non-urban land releases. The Programs are indicative and are subject to change as market conditions alter or as Government priorities are adjusted. The ACT Government has set out a number of objectives that the land release program seeks to fulfil. The objectives as set out in the Land Supply Strategy (EDD 2013) are: promoting the economic and social development of the Territory, including contributing to the vision set out in the Canberra Plan of a city representing the best in Australian creativity, community living and sustainable development; meeting the ongoing demand for residential land in the Territory; establishing an appropriate inventory of serviced land; facilitating the provision of affordable housing; maintaining flexibility of land releases to ensure they reflect market conditions and do not contribute to rapid land price changes; providing a variety of land and housing options; addressing the locational objectives set out in key Government documents such as the Territory Plan and the ACT Planning Strategy; achieving satisfactory returns to the Territory from the sale of unleased Territory land; and assisting in the operation of a competitive private sector land development market. The ACT Government released the current Indicative Residential Land Release Programs in June 2013 for the period 2013-14 to 2016-17. Since then, the estimated number of dwellings that will be released has been reduced. Table 2.1 shows the revised target number of dwellings for release over this period. The reduction in dwelling sites over the four years reflects the ACT Government’s expectation that the ACT economy will slow over the period. This level of supply is expected to maintain stable land prices, improve housing affordability and allow the Government to establish an inventory of unsold sites. Deloitte Access Economics 5 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 2.1: ACT Government dwelling sites 2013-14 to 2017-18 Dwelling sites 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Total 4,000 3,600 3,300 3,300 3,300 17,500 Source: Economic Development Directorate estimates, March 2014. The ACT Government through the ACT Planning Strategy has set a target to deliver 50 per cent or more of new housing through urban intensification. This objective is designed to support greater urban sustainability and increase the focus for development on Canberra's town centres and along the major public transport corridors. The Territory Plan The Territory Plan sets out the ACT Government’s vision for the development of the Territory. The objectives of the Plan are to: “ensure, in a manner not inconsistent with the national capital plan, the planning and development of the ACT provide the people of ACT with an attractive, safe and efficient environment in which to live, work and have their recreation.” (ACT Government 2008). The Territory Plan also sets out the current zoning for land in the ACT. The EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites are currently zoned as broadacre. For the purposes of this analysis, we have assumed that the ACT Government would agree to change the zoning to residential, if it decided to pursue further development of the sites. The National Capital Plan The objective of the National Capital Plan (2013) is: “to ensure that Canberra and the Australian Capital Territory are planned and developed in accordance with their national significance.” The National Capital Plan provides a framework determined by the Commonwealth for land use and development throughout the Territory. Areas of land that have the special characteristics of the National Capital are labelled Designated Areas. This includes the main approach routes and avenues. The Plan may set out detailed conditions of planning, design and development in Designated Areas. The National Capital Plan covers some of the EPIC site as it is located on one of the main approach routes, along the Federal Highway. The area covered by the Plan is a 200m zone from the centre line of the main approach route and it runs the full length of the Federal Highway barrier. There are special requirements for developments in this zone that are set out in a Development Control Plan that was developed by the National Capital Authority in 2010. It covers requirements such as the height, width and quality of any buildings, landscaping, lighting and the visual impact of car parking. Deloitte Access Economics 6 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 2.2.2 Related ACT Government urban renewal priorities The ACT Government is concurrently pursuing large-scale projects in the central Canberra area, including City to the Lake and the Northbourne Avenue redevelopment. The potential redevelopment of the EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites would complement these projects and could be an important part of the ACT Government’s strategy to revitalise the city from Lake Burley Griffin as far as the Gungahlin Town Centre. City to the Lake City to the Lake is the ACT Government's long term planning initiative for Central Canberra, which aims to bring more lifestyle and residential facilities closer to Lake Burley Griffin. The plan features a number of distinct elements: Residential apartments catering for 15,000 to 20,000 new residents; Commercial, retail and cultural facilities; The Australia Forum, which encompasses a new convention and exhibition centre; and A 30,000 seat stadium. Any development at the EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites is outside of the areas that will be developed for City to the Lake. Plus, the City to the Lake development will be focused on apartments whereas the potential redevelopment at EPIC and Thoroughbred Park is more likely to be houses and townhouses. However, the interaction between construction and release of land for these two projects would need to be considered. Northbourne Avenue redevelopment The ACT Government is also planning to release government land along Northbourne Avenue for residential and other developments to increase density along the corridor. The impact of the development along the Northbourne corridor will need to be considered alongside the potential development at the EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites. The timing of these developments is likely to be different with the ACT Government likely to release the land along Northbourne Avenue earlier than our estimated timeline for development at EPIC or Thoroughbred Park. The dwelling types are also likely to be different, with more apartments likely to be built along Northbourne Avenue, and will cater for a different market. Gungahlin Town Centre In 2010, the ACT Government released its Master Plan for the Gungahlin Town Centre. Gungahlin is expected to grow from 32,500 residents to 55,000 by 2019, and ultimately is expected to have between 90,000 and 100,000 residents by the time Gungahlin is fully developed (ACT Planning Authority 2010, p9). In light of the increased development in Gungahlin, it is prudent to consider the opportunities along the entirety of the City to Gungahlin corridor. Capital Metro The ACT Government has committed to constructing Stage 1 of the Capital Metro light rail project between Gungahlin and Canberra City, with construction due to begin in 2016, and Deloitte Access Economics 7 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities expected to take two to three years. The land currently occupied by EPIC and Thoroughbred Park is an important component of this corridor and consideration of the future uses of this land will be critical to the Territory’s broader land supply program, transport strategy and land use policies. 2.3 Framework for analysis The focus of this report is on the potential colocation options for the ACT racing clubs and EPIC and the resulting opportunities for urban renewal. Our analysis has been guided by two core objectives: Optimising investment and leveraging synergies for the racing industry and EPIC; and Optimising urban renewal in the ACT, including revenue potential and broader community benefits. In order to provide a more detailed assessment of the options and a high-level ranking of the extent that each option addresses these objectives, we have disaggregated the objectives into elements that are used to assess the relative merit of each option. Each of these elements is assessed at different stages of the report and a consolidated assessment is provided in Chapter 7. Detailed objectives Assessment method Deliver a practical and achievable colocation solution. Risk assessment (Chapter 4) Increase operational efficiency and synergies for racing industry and EPIC. Strategic assessment (Chapter 4) Improve racing industry and EPIC financial sustainability through enabling additional revenue opportunities. Strategic assessment (Chapter 4) Address constraints at current sites (e.g. noise and governance constraints). Strategic assessment (Chapter 4) Ensure financial viability of the colocation options for the ACT Government. Financial assessment (Chapter 6) Deliver colocation by undertaking urban renewal. Strategic assessment (Chapter 4) 2.4 Stakeholder consultations Deloitte Access Economics undertook a series of stakeholder consultations, including site visits, with the three ACT racing codes and EPIC as part of the analysis. Through the stakeholder consultations, we were able to gather information on: the facilities that the racing codes and EPIC would require at a new site; issues that would need to be addressed before colocation or relocation could occur; possible benefits and opportunities from colocation or relocation; and the views of each of the racing codes and EPIC on the proposed options. Deloitte Access Economics 8 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities A summary of the consultations undertaken is included in Appendix A. A detailed explanation of the issues that the racing industry and EPIC have raised in relation to the colocation options and a list of their requirements for a new site are included in Appendices B and C respectively. Deloitte Access Economics 9 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 3 Approach The following chapter outlines the approach taken in this feasibility study. It sets out the options and scenarios for the analysis, the assumptions we have used and the stakeholder consultations that we have undertaken throughout the course of the project. 3.1 Colocation options There are a variety of permutations of the colocation options that could be considered. We have identified ten options that cover the breadth of the permutations available. These are set out in Table 3.1. Table 3.1: Colocation options for analysis CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Land made available Option 1 Option 1a Option 2 Option 3 EPIC site Thoroughbred Park Part of EPIC site * EPIC site Part of EPIC site Greenfield site (to be determined) Option 4 EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 5 * EPIC and Thoroughbred Park Option 6 EPIC site Option 7 EPIC site Symonston (current Greyhound track) Option 8 Option 8a Part of EPIC site * EPIC site * Under options 1a, 5 and 8a, EPIC would be located to a separate greenfield site. This analysis considers three options for the Thoroughbred Park site. The simplest option would be to move the Harness Racing Club onto Thoroughbred Park. This option would provide a significant parcel of land for development and some of the facilities at Thoroughbred Park would be able to be adapted easily for harness racing. The next option would be to include the Greyhound Racing Club as well. This would be a bit more difficult in terms of configuration and providing space for each code. The final option would be to colocate all of the racing codes and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park. This would involve significant reconfiguration of the site and would result in the Racing Club having to stop using the site while this development was underway and requiring the ACT Government to compensate the Racing Club. Other options, such as only moving EPIC or the Greyhound Racing Club to Thoroughbred Park, were not considered as they would not provide benefits to the same scale as making Deloitte Access Economics 10 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities the land used by the Harness Racing Club available and would not have the same synergies between the codes. This analysis considers two options for a greenfield site (which is yet to be identified). The first is to colocate all of the racing clubs and EPIC on a greenfield site. This option makes available the largest parcel of land. The other option is to move EPIC, the Harness Racing Club and the Greyhound Racing Club to a greenfield site. The benefits of relocating racing facilities and using this land for development have been seen in other parts of Australia, for example the redevelopment of Harold Park and the relocation of the NSW Harness Racing Club. This example provided benefits for both the racing industry and for urban renewal. The NSW Harness Racing Club was able to increase prize money and improve its facilities and the City of Sydney was able to increase residential dwellings in the inner city and provide additional open public space. Case study: Harold Park Paceway Harold Park Paceway was previously owned and administered by the NSW Harness Racing Club, acting as a raceway since 1902. In 2008, the NSW Harness Racing Club moved its home from Harold Park to Tabcorp Park Menangle. In late 2010, Harold Park was sold for $187 million to property developers Mirvac. The site is 10.6 hectares. The NSW Harness Racing Club Board made the decision to sell Harold Park in order to increase the competiveness of the harness racing industry by generating funds to increase prize money and commence substantial developments to Tabcorp Park Menangle. As a result of the park’s sale, $25 million has been provided for the redevelopment of Tabcorp Menangle Park. NSW Harness Racing Club believes the redevelopment will make Tabcorp Park the finest harness racing complex in Australasia. In addition to the redevelopment, a further $100 million will be invested into securing the financial future of the industry and prize money will also double across the state. The redeveloped Harold Park features 1,250 new apartments and terraces, a new retail quarter and ten acres of parklands which are open for public usage. The Rozelle Tram Depot which served as an overnight servicing and garaging of electric tram cars will transform into the centrepiece of the site’s retail quarter. The depot had stood derelict and essentially empty since the 1960s. More than 180 buyers have already committed to the development, with prices starting at $490,000 for a studio apartment and $1.6 million for a terrace. Source: City of Sydney, http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/vision/major-developments/ harold-park, accessed 4 March 2014. There is only one feasible new option for the greyhound race track and that is to move the Harness Racing Club to Symonston as the current site is not large enough for the Racing Deloitte Access Economics 11 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Club or EPIC. However, further investigation of this option could include consideration of using the vacant land around the current Symonston site, which could make colocation with CRC and EPIC feasible. The options were chosen as they provide a solid basis for the ACT Government to be able to make an informed decision about a way forward. The key information required for the ACT Government to make a decision will be an understanding of the costs and benefits of each option for the racing industry and the ACT Government, the costs of relocating the racing clubs and EPIC, and whether the colocation options are financially viable for the ACT Government. 3.1.1 Costs of colocation The colocation costs are influenced by the new location and the other users of the site. There are three proposed locations for colocating the racing codes and EPIC. They are Thoroughbred Park, a greenfield site or the current greyhound race track in Symonston. There are a larger number of options that could be considered in terms of which parties are colocated on the sites. The permutations that will be covered in the options are: the Racing Club and the Harness Racing Club; the Harness Racing Club and the Greyhound Racing Club; the Racing Club, the Harness Racing Club and the Greyhound Racing Club; the Harness Racing Club, the Greyhound Racing Club and EPIC; the Harness Racing Club and EPIC; and the Racing Club, the Harness Racing Club, the Greyhound Racing Club and EPIC. The other options that are not included above such as EPIC and the Greyhound Racing Club, or EPIC and the Racing Club, are not considered likely to proceed as this would leave the Harness Racing Club without a site, given the leasing arrangements with EPIC. There are also fewer synergies between EPIC and Greyhound Racing Club. 3.1.2 Sensitivity analysis We have assessed the impact of a high-cost and a low-cost capital build for each of the colocation options. The low-cost option is the cost required to meet the minimum standards required and the high-cost represents the cost of the additional facilities that are required to meet the strategic and business aims of the racing codes and EPIC. 3.1.3 Assumptions To inform the modelling of relocation costs for the racing clubs and EPIC, Deloitte Access Economics undertook consultations with these organisations to determine their requirements for a new facility. It is assumed that any new or colocated site would meet all the racing clubs minimum operating requirements and would not impact the ongoing financial viability of the ACT Racing Clubs. As part of the consultation, each organisation was asked to identify the minimum facilities they would require at a new facility, typically their current range of facilities. In addition, Deloitte Access Economics 12 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities the organisations were asked to identify a hypothetical ‘full range’ of facilities that would allow the organisations to meet all of the strategic and business plans for their operation. The facilities identified by the organisations under each scenario are detailed in Appendix C. The costs (contained in Table 3.2) are presented in the following categories: Race track: this includes racing infrastructure such as the track, race day kennels/stables, track lighting, track rails, steward facilities, big screens, and jockey rooms. The costs of EPIC’s infrastructure such as the EPIC and Acton Arenas, the dog rings, and the Go to Whoa Strip and burn out track for Summernats, are also included. Buildings: this includes buildings on site such as administration blocks, storage facilities, function rooms, and licensed premises. Training facilities: this includes any training tracks, long term kennels/stables, sand rolls, horse walkers, and equine/canine pools. Other: this includes any infrastructure which is not included in the other categories, such as perimeter fencing, roads, and water. EPIC’s campgrounds and other outdoor areas such as Central Park and Drover Square are included in this category. Carpark: the cost for the carpark depends on the option chosen. • If an additional club colocates at Thoroughbred Park, and in the absence of a modified ACT Government public transport strategy, it was considered necessary that a multistorey carpark be constructed. The carpark costs could be reduced if nearby land could be utilised as ‘overflow’ space when required. • The cost estimates are based on data sourced from Rider Levett Bucknall for a 1,500 space carpark, which is proportionately scaled down based on the number and scale of clubs operating under each option. • For the non-Thoroughbred Park options, the cost estimate is based on regular surface parking, which is significantly cheaper than a multistorey carpark. Grandstand: this is based on a 1,500 seat grandstand when all clubs are colocated, and is proportionately scaled down based on the number and scale of clubs operating under each option. For a small number of days each year, this facility would be inadequate for CRC and EPIC. On these days, temporary structures such as marquees and pavilions will be used to accommodate larger crowds. • Note that the grandstand represents total seating capacity at each venue. The grandstand will likely be split into several smaller sections, each of which is directed at a separate piece of infrastructure, for example a horse racing track and a greyhound racing track. Site works: estimated costs are based on subject matter expertise and similar costing engagements undertaking by Deloitte Access Economics. The site work estimates for EPIC assume a consolidation of EPIC’s existing footprint to approximately 20 hectares. Project management, design and planning, and contingency: these were added on as percentages to the cost of the project at a rate of 5%, 10%, and 20% respectively. The high cost estimates reflect the improved facilities sought by each club under the 'full range' option, which is assumed to cost an additional 30% compared to the cost of constructing the minimum range facilities. Deloitte Access Economics 13 Stage 1: Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 3.2: Estimate of relocation costs by category of cost ($ million) Category Race track Buildings Training Other Carpark Grandstand Site works Project management Design and planning Contingency Total Option 1 Min. Max. Option 1a Min. Max. Option 2 Min. Max. Option 3 Min. Max. Option 4 Min. Max. Option 5 Min. Max. Option 6 Min. Max. Option 7 Min. Max. Option 8 Min. Max. Option 8a Min. Max. 7.8 10.7 8.7 11.9 11.5 15.5 17.7 23.6 20.3 27.0 20.3 27.0 7.2 9.9 5.4 7.7 5.9 8.2 6.8 9.5 3.9 5.3 16.6 21.9 9.8 13.0 19.0 24.9 13.9 18.3 18.8 24.7 12.9 17.0 12.8 16.9 1.1 1.6 13.8 18.2 3.5 5.2 4.4 6.3 4.9 7.1 6.2 8.8 6.5 9.1 6.5 9.1 5.3 7.8 4.1 6.1 4.2 6.3 5.1 7.5 4.6 6.0 7.3 9.5 7.7 10.1 17.3 22.5 20.2 26.2 20.2 26.2 2.9 3.8 2.8 3.7 0.1 0.2 2.8 3.7 12.0 18.0 14.1 20.8 15.0 22.5 30.0 45.0 4.3 5.6 4.3 5.6 3.0 3.9 2.6 3.3 0.4 0.6 2.6 3.3 4.4 5.7 10.6 13.8 11.3 14.6 18.8 24.4 12.5 16.3 12.5 16.3 8.8 11.4 7.5 9.8 1.3 1.6 7.5 9.8 3.9 5.0 6.4 8.3 6.2 8.0 12.3 16.0 15.4 20.0 12.8 16.7 10.8 14.0 9.2 12.0 3.5 5.0 8.6 11.2 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.6 3.3 4.5 6.1 8.3 4.7 6.1 4.8 6.3 2.5 3.4 2.2 3.0 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.2 4.0 5.6 6.8 9.3 6.6 9.1 12.1 16.5 9.3 12.2 9.5 12.6 5.1 6.8 4.4 5.9 1.6 2.4 4.7 6.3 8.0 11.2 13.6 18.5 13.3 18.2 24.3 33.1 18.6 24.5 19.1 25.1 10.2 13.6 8.9 11.9 3.3 4.7 9.4 12.6 80.3 22.2 31.8 63.7 85.2 54.0 75.5 92.1 125.0 89.6 122.6 163.8 223.1 125.6 165.3 128.7 169.5 68.6 91.5 60.0 Note: minimum cost refers to the cost of constructing the minimum range of facilities requested by clubs. Maximum cost refers to the cost of constructing the full range of facilities requested by clubs. Deloitte Access Economics 14 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities The specific assumptions for each option are presented below. Options 1, 2 and 3 - Costs for replicating each club's existing facilities in their entirety were included, with the exception of CRC. While CRC already has facilities on Thoroughbred Park, due to space restrictions it was assumed that some of these facilities would need to be moved, consolidated, re-structured and/or re-built to accommodate new tenants. To calculate the impact on CRC, we assumed that a proportion of CRC's assets will need to be redeveloped: 25% under Option 1, 40% under Option 2, and 80% under Option 3. Option 1a - The same assumptions for Options 1, 2 and 3 were used for this option, with two key exceptions: A multistorey carpark was used for Thoroughbred Park, while a (cheaper) single level carpark was used for the greenfield site. The cost of replicating EPIC's existing infrastructure in its entirety was used for the greenfield site. Options 4, 6 and 7 - The cost of replicating each club's existing infrastructure in its entirety was included. It was assumed that EPIC's existing infrastructure for functions and licensed premises was sufficient for accommodating the needs of the other tenants. Option 5 - The cost of replicating each club's existing infrastructure in its entirety was included. Option 8 and 8a - The cost of replicating CHRC's existing facilities in their entirety was included. As the site does not have the same space restrictions that exist at Thoroughbred Park, no allowance was made for moving, consolidating, re-structuring and/or re-building CGRC's existing infrastructure on the site. For 8a, the cost of replicating EPIC's existing facilities in their entirety was included. Shared costs - Within each option, some facilities can be shared between the clubs. These include facilities such as function rooms and licensed premises, grandstand, car park, some training facilities, office buildings, and a dam. As with the carpark and grandstand costs, there is an upper cost for the options where all clubs are colocated, which is proportionately scaled down based on the number and scale of clubs operating under each option. There are a few areas of costs that were not included in the analysis. For example: Other cost synergies that may arise under various options, such as shared administration and maintenance costs, were not included as estimating them would require substantial additional analysis beyond the scope of the engagement. These potential cost reductions were also considered to be immaterial to the overall cost-benefit analysis. The modelling does not consider any potential change to the costs that would result from an increased scale or scope of operations if the ‘full range’ of facilities was constructed. The cost of building additional infrastructure to cope with an increased scale or scope of operations has also not been included. The model does not include the cost of constructing facilities that would not be borne by the ACT Government, such a colocated hotel, or on-site accommodation for trainers and other facility staff. Deloitte Access Economics 15 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 3.2 Urban renewal In order for the ACT Government to make the colocation options a reality, it needs to explore options for urban renewal at the vacated sites. Without the proceeds from redevelopment, the ACT Government will be unable to finance the colocation options. 3.2.1 Development scenarios There are three primary parcels of land that could be made available under the proposed options that we have considered for our analysis (the potential development sites are shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2). Figure 3.1: EPIC site Source: Economic Development Directorate, 2014. Under the options where EPIC is to remain on site, we have assumed that EPIC would be consolidated in the southern corner of the site. This is where the majority of the exhibition space is and would not require construction of new facilities. Deloitte Access Economics 16 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Figure 3.2: Thoroughbred Park site Source: Economic Development Directorate, 2014. The three development scenarios that we have assessed for this study are: Scenario 1 - the full EPIC site; Scenario 2 - the full EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites; and Scenario 3 - part of the EPIC site. The first scenario is to relocate the Harness Racing Club and EPIC, which would make the full EPIC site available for development (74 hectares). The EPIC site is owned by the ACT Government and both parties are supportive of moving to a new location. As moving the Canberra Racing Club is more complex than moving either EPIC or the Harness Racing Club, moving only the racing club has not been assessed. The second scenario is to relocate the Harness Racing Club, EPIC and the Canberra Racing Club. Under this option, the full EPIC site and Thoroughbred Park would be available for development (a total of 138 hectares). The third scenario is to develop the land made available by relocating the Harness Racing Club and consolidating EPIC on the existing EPIC site. The land required for EPIC is 20 hectares, which would provide approximately 54 hectares of land for development. Given the location of the current facilities on the EPIC site, it would make most sense under this option for EPIC to be located in the southern part of the site where the existing buildings are located. This sort of consolidation is consistent with trends in other jurisdictions. For example, consolidation of the Melbourne Showgrounds was undertaken in 2006. This project was successful as the upgraded facilities, while smaller, were able to attract additional visitors Deloitte Access Economics 17 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities and the project was also able to leverage investment from the private sector. Further details are provided in the following case study. Case study: Melbourne Showgrounds In August 2006, the Royal Agricultural Society of Victoria (RASV) formed a joint venture with the Victorian Government in order to commence a $108 million redevelopment of the iconic Melbourne Showgrounds. Prior to the redevelopment the site was a total of 27 hectares with a holding capacity of approximately 43,000 attendees. The redevelopment of the showgrounds revitalised existing structures and included the construction of the Grand Pavilion, Town Square, new exhibition space and outdoor animal competition areas. Nine hectares of the existing site was dedicated to commercial development known as Showground Village, including a $40 million Coles Group shopping centre just 5.3km from Melbourne’s CBD. Keys reasons for the site’s redevelopment included: enhancing the Royal Melbourne Show, building on the link between urban and rural Victoria and creating a flexible, multipurpose event and exhibition precinct. The Showgrounds had become rundown over time and needed enhancements to remain competitive with similar venues such as the newly built Sydney Showgrounds located in Homebush. As a result of the redevelopment, the site decreased by nearly a third in size, however capacity increased by 16.3%, through upgraded facilities and state of the art infrastructure. In the first year of operation the redeveloped site increased visitation by 27% on the previous year. Significantly, RASV’s total equity increased by $50 million in 2008 following the redevelopment. In 2012, the showgrounds had more than 950,000 visitors, hosted 800 events and meetings including the Royal Melbourne Show and 90 other large scale exhibitions. The National 4X4 & Outdoor Show and Fishing & Boating Exhibition held its annual show for the 4th consecutive time in 2012 at the showgrounds, hosting in excess of 10,000 people each day. Source: Royal Agricultural Society of Victoria 2009, 2008-09 Annual Report. Moving the Greyhound Racing Club would also provide approximately 11 hectares of additional vacant land in Symonston. However, the location of this land under the current planning and strategy for land development in the ACT makes it significantly less valuable than the land that could be released at EPIC or Thoroughbred Park. Therefore, the benefits from vacating this land have not been quantified in the Stage 1 assessment. Valuation of the Symonston land will be required, if Government proceeds with any of the options that involve relocating the Greyhound Racing Club. Deloitte Access Economics 18 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 3.2.2 Sensitivity analysis We have assessed the impact of a low density and a higher density development on the vacated sites. The sensitivity analysis provides a proxy for the inclusion of the Capital Metro light rail. The high density scenario provides an indication of the likely types of development assuming the construction of the Capital Metro light rail goes ahead as planned and that a light rail station is integrated into the site. The low density scenario provides an indication of the likely types of development under the current transport arrangements. 3.2.3 Assumptions Our approach in determining likely development scenarios over the site(s) included the following key activities: Held preliminary high level discussions with leading local real estate agents and property valuers who operate in the following property sectors: • residential; • office; and • retail. We gained an understanding of the following key market parameters from these industry experts: • expected revenue ranges for vacant land and completed product; and • expected timing to sell; and • likely buyer profiles. Held preliminary high level discussions with large scale real estate development companies to ascertain the following: • an indication as to expected profit margins; • likely development timeframes; • product type mix; • construction cost estimates; • open space provisions; and • key external works that may be required to facilitate a development of this scale. Held preliminary high level discussions with local and national builders to ascertain the construction costs for residential freestanding dwellings. Review of industry benchmarks for large scale real estate development including the following: • Rawlinsons Construction Handbook 2013; and • Riders Digest 2014. We have assessed different options for the land, including different types of residential development, retail and commercial options, and other uses such as hotels, sporting facilities or conference and exhibition facilities. The detailed results from this analysis have been provided to the ACT Government in a separate report. Deloitte Access Economics 19 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 4 Strategic assessment The following chapter identifies the strategic costs, benefits and risk for each of the colocation options. 4.1 Qualitative cost-benefit assessment Table 4.1 identifies the qualitative costs and benefits for each of the options from the point of view of the racing industry, EPIC and the ACT Government. Where there are costs and benefits for the broader ACT community we have captured these under the ACT Government. At this stage, we have only undertaken a qualitative assessment and as such this discussion provides an illustration of the trade-offs between the options. However, many of these costs and benefits could be quantified as part of a more detailed feasibility study to provide an understanding of the materiality and achievability of these costs and benefits. Table 4.1: Qualitative cost-benefit assessment Costs/Constraints Benefits Option 1 – CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidated on site Racing Industry Potential disruption at Thoroughbred Park while new facilities are built. Reduced operational costs with shared facilities. Negotiations required between CRC and CHRC to agree lease arrangements for CHRC to relocate. Opportunities for marketing and creation of a horse and harness racing hub within the ACT. Increase operational complexity at Thoroughbred Park. CHRC would have access to services on the CRC site, e.g. the equine pool. CHRC would continue to be a tenant and thus would not increase their autonomy. Increase usage for existing assets at CRC that could be shared, e.g. grandstand, car parks. Easier to accommodate CRC and CHRC on same site, compared to current situation where CHRC can’t race when EPIC is holding large events (e.g. the Canberra show). EPIC No longer receive revenue from CHRC. Reduced operational costs from smaller footprint. ACT Government Requires negotiations with CRC and potential compensation to colocate other parties on site. Partial redevelopment of EPIC site would contribute to increasing urban infill and urban renewal. Reconfiguration of EPIC site could impact competiveness of the ACT as the host for Summernats, which would reduce visitors to the ACT. Opportunity to improve the entrance to the ACT. Deloitte Access Economics 20 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Costs/Constraints Benefits Option 1a – CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC at a greenfield site Racing Industry As per Option 1. As per Option 1. EPIC As per Option 1, plus: Purpose built facilities. EPIC would no longer be on the proposed Capital Metro light rail route. The new location could bring benefits depending on where it is located, including reduced noise constraints or being located in a more convenient location. Potential relocation costs for other tenants at the EPIC site, including the Royal National Capital Agricultural Society, the ACT Canine Association, the ACT German Shepherd Association and the organisers of Summernats. ACT Government As per Option 1, plus: The new location of EPIC could create costs depending on where it is located, including building access roads or public transport routes. As per Option 1, with commensurate increase in benefits from developing total EPIC site. Option 2 – CRC, CHRC and CGRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidation on site Racing Industry As per Option 1, plus: As per Option 1, plus: Negotiations would also include CGRC. Additional opportunities for marketing and events with all three racing codes. Increased effort to coordinate use of land and scheduling because of including two types of animals. EPIC As per Option 1. As per Option 1. ACT Government As per Option 1, plus: As per Option 1. Potential acquisition of adjoining lands to fit all of the codes at Thoroughbred Park. Land would be made available at Symonston for alternative uses. Negative impact on businesses located near CGRC Symonston site. Option 3 – CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park Racing Industry Thoroughbred Park would need to be completely redeveloped and CRC would not be able to continue its current racing and training activities. A break in racing may lead to trainers moving to other venues and not returning, and could jeopardise arrangements with SKY. Additional opportunities for marketing and events with all three racing codes and EPIC (e.g. US County Fairs are held in conjunction with horse racing meets). More complex governance arrangements. Increased operational effort to manage different types of animals (e.g. horses, dogs and farm animals). Deloitte Access Economics 21 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Costs/Constraints EPIC ACT Government Benefits Would not be able to hold Summernats at Thoroughbred Park. Reduced operational costs with shared facilities. Disruption to other EPIC tenants. Additional opportunities for marketing and events. Would require acquisition of adjoining land to fit all of the codes and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park. As per Option 1a. Option 4 – CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Racing Industry CRC would lose ownership of site, resulting in reduced autonomy. Increased operational effort to manage three codes and EPIC on one site, however, will be easier at a greenfield site. Purpose built new facilities. Reduced operational costs with shared facilities. Additional opportunities for revenue streams at purpose built site. Opportunity to set up new governance structures, with all codes on an even footing. EPIC ACT Government Potential relocation costs for other tenants at the EPIC site. Reduced operational costs with shared facilities. Potential for scheduling conflicts. Additional opportunities for events (e.g. outdoor music festivals) if relocated to greenfield area without the current noise restrictions. Negotiations (and potential compensation) required to acquire Thoroughbred Park. Full Thoroughbred Park and EPIC sites available for redevelopment, which will increase urban infill and provide additional opportunities for urban renewal and the opportunity to transform entry to ACT. The new location could create costs depending on where it is located, including building access roads or public transport routes. Additional activities at the new site may increase commercial and economic activity in the ACT. Catalyst to commence development of a new greenfield site (e.g. Tabcorp Park in Melton, which has now become a focal point for residential development). Option 5 – CRC, CHRC and CGRC at a greenfield site, EPIC at a separate greenfield site Racing Industry As per Option 4 plus reduced operational complexity without EPIC on site. As per Option 4 with fewer synergies and additional opportunities without EPIC on site. EPIC As per Option 4 except no scheduling difficulties. As per Option 4 except no operational cost savings. Deloitte Access Economics 22 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Costs/Constraints ACT Government As per Option 4. Benefits As per Option 4. Option 6 – CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Racing Industry Increased operational complexity with CHRC, CGRC and EPIC on same site. As per Option 4 with fewer synergies and additional opportunities without CRC on site. EPIC As per Option 4, except with reduced scheduling difficulties. As per Option 4, except with reduced operational cost savings. ACT Government As per Option 4, without need to acquire Thoroughbred Park. As per Option 4, except without urban infill and transport infrastructure benefits of redeveloping Thoroughbred Park. Opportunity remains to include CRC on site at a later stage. Option 7 – CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Racing Industry Increased operational complexity with CHRC and EPIC on same site. As per Option 4 with fewer synergies and additional opportunities without CRC and CGRC on site. EPIC As per Option 4, except with reduced scheduling difficulties. As per Option 4, except with reduced operational cost savings. ACT Government As per Option 4, without need to acquire Thoroughbred Park. As per Option 6. Option 8 – CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC consolidated on site Racing Industry Would require full redevelopment of Symonston site and greyhound racing will have to cease while this occurs. May impact on revenue streams, including SKY agreement and fitness club that leases part of the site. Potential to increase autonomy for CHRC. Reduced operational costs with shared facilities. Opportunities for additional events and marketing. Additional revenue opportunities, e.g. purpose built fitness area for current on-site fitness business. EPIC As per Option 1. As per Option 1. ACT Government Would require negotiation with CGRC, but less complicated because CGRC is leasing its land. Partial redevelopment of EPIC site will contribute to increasing urban infill and urban renewal. Reconfiguration of EPIC site could impact competiveness of the ACT as the host for Summernats, which would reduce visitors to the ACT. Opportunity to improve the entrance to the ACT. Opportunity to move CRC at a later stage on to adjoining vacant lands. Option 8a – CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC at greenfield site Racing Industry As per Option 8. As per Option 8. EPIC As per Option 1a. As per Option 1a. Deloitte Access Economics 23 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Costs/Constraints ACT Government As per Option 8, plus: The new location of EPIC could create costs depending on where it is located, including building access roads or public transport routes. Benefits As per Option 8, with commensurate increase in benefits from developing total EPIC site. Sources: Stakeholder consultations and Deloitte Access Economics analysis. 4.2 Risk assessment There are risks associated with the colocation options. We have undertaken a high-level analysis of the risks associated with each option. The risks are assessed from the perspective of the ACT Government. These include: Achievability risk – can the option be implemented? Will it require significant changes to current legislative or planning processes? Commercial risk – what is the risk that the option will not be commercially viable? Operational risk – what is the risk that the option will negatively impact on the operations of the racing industry or EPIC? Will the option disrupt the operation of the industry while construction occurs? Financial risk – does the option open the ACT Government up to financial risks? Governance risk – does the option create risks for the governance structure of the new facility? Stakeholder risk – how are stakeholders likely to respond to the options? Table 4.2 provides an assessment of each of the options against the risk criteria, using a three point scale (high, medium, low). This assessment has not considered what actions the ACT Government could take to mitigate or ameliorate the identified risks. Deloitte Access Economics 24 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 4.2: High-level risk assessment - colocation options Achievability Commercial risk risk Operational risk Financial risk Governance risk Stakeholder risk Option 1 – CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidation on site Low Low Medium Low High Medium High Medium Option 1a – CRC and CHRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC at a greenfield site Low Medium Medium Medium Option 2 – CRC, CHRC and CGRC at Thoroughbred Park, EPIC consolidation on site Medium Low Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium High Medium High Option 3 – CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park High Medium High Option 4 – CRC, CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Medium High Low Option 5 – CRC, CHRC and CGRC at a greenfield site, EPIC at a separate greenfield site Medium High Low High Medium High Low Medium Low Low Low Medium Low Low Low Medium Low Medium Option 6 – CHRC, CGRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Low Medium Option 7 – CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site Low Medium Option 8 – CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC consolidation on site Medium Low High Low Option 8a – CGRC and CHRC at Symonston, EPIC at a greenfield site Medium Medium High Low Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis. Based on this assessment, the options can be grouped into four categories (low risk, medium risk, medium-high risk and high risk) according to the aggregate risk for the options. Deloitte Access Economics 25 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 4.3: Options categorised by risk Low risk Medium risk Medium-high risk High risk Options 6 and 7 Options 1, 1a and 2 Options 4 and 5 Option 3 CHRC and EPIC (with and without CGRC) at a greenfield site CHRC located at Thoroughbred Park with and without CGRC (EPIC consolidated or moved to greenfield site) Relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site (option for EPIC to be on a separate site) Locating all of the racing clubs and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park Options 8 and 8a CHRC and CGRC at Symonston (EPIC consolidated or moved to greenfield site) Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis. 4.2.1 Low risk options The low risk options are relocating EPIC and CHRC to a greenfield site with and without CGRC. These options are low risk because they are easily achievable as they involve construction on a greenfield site and would not disrupt operations at existing facilities. There is also a lower governance risk and stakeholder risk as the options involve fewer parties and the governance processes can be determined from an equal starting point between all parties as existing arrangements would not need to be taken into account. These options have a medium risk rating for commercial risks as they involve the sale of the whole EPIC site and a medium risk rating for financial risk as the relocation costs are higher when they involve relocating EPIC. 4.2.2 Medium risk options The medium risk options are relocating CHRC to Thoroughbred Park with EPIC either staying on site or relocating to a greenfield site, relocating CHRC and CGRC to Thoroughbred Park and relocating CHRC to Symonston with the CGRC. Options 1 and 1a have a similar risk profile. The key difference is that moving EPIC to a greenfield site increases the relocation costs and the commercial risk as it involves development of a larger site. These options both have a low risk for achievability as moving CHRC to CRC is assessed as being easily manageable and does not raise risks associated with managing different types of animals on site. The risk rating for operational risks is medium as there would be some disruption to the operations at CRC but these should be manageable and should not require CRC to significantly alter its racing or training schedule. The stakeholder risk is medium as it would require some negotiation with CRC to allow CHRC to colocate at Thoroughbred Park. Related to this, the governance risk is high as it would require negotiation between CRC and CHRC on leasing agreements. Relocating CHRC and CGRC to Thoroughbred Park has a similar risk profile to Options 1 and 1a. The achievability risk would increase as there would be increased complexity with fitting all of the facilities onto the site and providing appropriate physical separation between horses and dogs on the site. This was raised during our consultations and experience from Deloitte Access Economics 26 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities other facilities is that there needs to be physical separation as relying on timetabling has not been successful in practice. Relocating CHRC to Symonston has a similar aggregate risk but a different spread of risks. This option has a high operational risk as it is likely to require the full redevelopment of the site to fit all the facilities on the Symonston site. 4.2.3 Medium-high risk options The medium-high risk options are relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site, with EPIC to either be on the same site or a separate greenfield site. These options have a higher risk rating than the other options because they involve all four parties, however, moving to a greenfield site makes the option more achievable as the new sites would be able to be designed without having to account for existing infrastructure. These options have the highest commercial risk because they involve the redevelopment and sale of the full EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites for residential use. These options have a high financial risk because relocating all of the parties would have the highest cost and the additional requirements for moving all parties increases the uncertainty of costs. The options also have a higher stakeholder risk as they would require negotiation with CRC about the ACT Government acquiring Thoroughbred Park. 4.2.4 High risk option The high-risk option is to colocate all of the clubs and EPIC on the Thoroughbred Park site. This option is high risk in four of the categories. Achievability risk and operational risk are high, because it would require substantial redesign of the Thoroughbred site to fit all of the parties on the site and would likely require Thoroughbred Park to cease racing and training operations while the site is redeveloped. The financial risk is also high as this is the highest cost option and there is significant uncertainty around how the option would be made to work, which may further increase costs. The governance risk is also high, as it would require all parties to agree to new governance arrangements and requires Thoroughbred Park to agree to lease its land to the other parties. 4.2.5 Risk mitigation There are also options that the ACT Government could pursue to mitigate these risks, and would likely be undertaken as part of a detailed feasibility study, including: additional negotiation could be undertaken to expand the Thoroughbred Park or Symonston sites to include neighbouring blocks of land, which would increase the size of the sites and make it easier to colocate the facilities on site and reduce the operational impact on the existing tenants; undertake detailed market analysis of the demand from developers for the EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites to inform timing of land sales and the type of dwellings; identify a location for the greenfield site; and undertake detailed design and assessment of the new colocated sites to provide detailed costs and to ensure the feasibility of colocation on site. Deloitte Access Economics 27 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 5 Economic environment The following chapter discusses the economic environment and key economic variables that affect the level of property demand in the ACT and provides important context for the urban renewal opportunities. 5.1 Economic trends A number of macroeconomic variables influence demand for housing, including population growth and housing affordability, which in turn is influenced by income growth and interest rates. At the same time, the supply of housing is influenced by the rate of land release and construction costs. The past year has seen a divergence in property markets across Australia. Information available from RP Data-Rismark shows modest housing price growth over the last 12 months in Hobart, Canberra, Darwin, Adelaide and Brisbane, but rapid gains in Melbourne (8.5% growth), Perth (9.9%) and Sydney (14.5%). Low interest rates and relatively modest residential housing construction suggest that total house price growth is likely to remain strong for the immediate future. That said, dwelling approvals have increased strongly over the last year, and a lift in housing construction activity is expected. Chart 5.1 shows an expectation for interest rates to remain low in the short term. Inflation is contained within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3% over the cycle. Chart 5.1: Australian interest rates 20% 18% Standard variable mortgage rates 16% 14% 90 day bank bill rates 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Business Outlook, March 2014. Meanwhile, a better global economic outlook may provide support for lower mortgage interest rates. The current gap between short-term interest rates and the standard variable mortgage interest rate remains elevated after increasing sharply during the global financial crisis (GFC). Since the GFC, weakness in global financial markets has driven up the price of Deloitte Access Economics 28 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities wholesale funding to Australian banks. That has in turn driven up the price of loans to Australian mortgage holders. As conditions on global markets continue to improve, this gap can be expected to moderate. Chart 5.2: Housing investment as a share of GDP Share of real GDP 7% Forecast 6% 5% 4% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Business Outlook, March 2014. On a national level, investment in residential housing construction has been falling as a share of Australia’s economy for almost a decade. Indeed, housing activity has only been a smaller share of the Australian economy during the recessions of the early 1960s and mid-1970s, and after the introduction of the GST in 2000. A number of factors have contributed to this decline. House prices increased significantly over the past decade, while higher interest rates and increases in developer taxes and charges (which are generally passed onto residential home buyers) have also influenced construction costs and housing affordability more generally. In turn, the average number of persons per home in Australia has increased, reversing a long term trend of decline. Moreover, managed land release by State and Territory governments across Australia has constrained the supply side, causing the price of the land component of residential developments to rise as a share of the value of an average home. However, as Chart 5.2 above shows, housing investment is expected to rise over the next few years, driven by low interest rates and good population growth, particularly in the major urban centres. ACT housing market Residential housing demand in the ACT is subject to a unique set of factors, including the rate of employment growth in the Commonwealth public service, that have driven the housing market in a different direction to many other jurisdictions in Australia. Recent years saw a surge in residential housing construction in the ACT, while at the same time national activity was weak. Deloitte Access Economics 29 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities However, forward indicators for the ACT suggest a weaker outlook in the future. Housing finance and building approvals have been falling for the past year, while vacancy rates for rental properties have risen. This has already begun to show up in house prices, with prices trending down slightly over the past year. Positives associated with low interest rates and good population growth have been offset by Federal government cut backs and the expectation for more public sector job cuts in the near future. Low mortgage interest rates have not encouraged the same increased level of new housing construction in the ACT as has been seen in other areas. However, that is due in part to the relative outperformance of residential housing construction in the ACT in recent years. Future prospects for the housing market in the ACT will be determined in large part by the level of future reductions to the Australian Public Service. So far, efforts by successive Federal Governments to rein in public sector spending (both in terms of numbers and wage growth) have been relatively modest. Federal public sector jobs fell from 250,000 to 248,500 in 2012-13, though the public sector wage bill grew by 4%. However, it is expected that there will be further reductions in staff numbers over the forward estimates. Chart 5.3: ACT share of national population and output Share of real GDP 7% Forecast 6% 5% 4% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Business Outlook, March 2014. Moreover, there are flow-on impacts into other sectors in the ACT. Business investment spending in the ACT is already weak, while many Canberra private sector companies ‘sell to’ the public sector. Chart 5.3 shows the ACT maintaining its share of the national population, but losing some share of national output over the next few years as the already announced public sector job reductions impact the local economy. Deloitte Access Economics 30 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 5.2 Demographic trends In 2013, the total population in the ACT was estimated at around 384,000 persons. By 2044, the ACT population is projected to grow to over 572,500 persons at an average annual rate of 1.3% per year. Chart 5.4: Total population in the ACT, 2044 ACT population 600,000 Forecast 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 Total population in the ACT 300,000 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Source: ABS 3101.0, Deloitte Access Economics forecast 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 Demographic ageing will play a key part in the transition of the ACT economy over the coming decades. An older population demands a different mix of goods and services and also different types of housing. Moreover, lower birth rates will also have an impact on housing demand, with smaller families requiring smaller houses with fewer rooms. The overall rate of population growth will also affect housing demand, with Chart 5.5 showing a projected decline in the overall rate of population growth over the next few decades in the ACT. Over time, as individuals live longer, older age cohorts are expected to account for a larger share of the population in the ACT. Indeed, population ageing is a challenge for jurisdictions across Australia and in many developed nations around the world. Meanwhile lower birth rates will reduce the share of the population accounted for by younger age cohorts. Combined, these factors generate the relatively rapid ageing trends shown in Chart 5.6 below. Deloitte Access Economics 31 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Chart 5.5: Long run annual population growth in the ACT Annual population growth rates in the ACT 3.5% Forecast 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% ACT population growth 0.0% 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Source: ABS 3101.0, Deloitte Access Economics forecast By 2043, persons aged 65 years and over will account for 17.7% of the population in the ACT. That is up from 11.3% in 2013, and 6.7% two decades ago in 1993. Meanwhile, persons aged 19 years and under will account for 21.7% of the population in 2043, down from 24.3% in 2013, and 31.4% two decades ago in 1993. Chart 5.6: Changing age demographics in the ACT to 2043 ACT population shares by age 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1993 2003 2013 0-19 20-34 Source: ABS 3101.0, Deloitte Access Economics 2023 35-49 2033 50-64 2043 65+ These changing demographics will have wide ranging economic implications for the ACT, including changes in the demand for housing. Deloitte Access Economics 32 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 6 Financial assessment In order for the ACT Government to make the colocation options a reality, it needs to explore options to redevelop the vacated land. Without the proceeds from redevelopment, the ACT Government will be unable to finance the colocation options. This chapter provides an assessment of the financial viability of the colocation options and development scenarios from the perspective of the ACT Government. 6.1 Methodology A strategic financial appraisal model was developed by Deloitte for the purpose of assessing the financial viability of the colocation options. To perform such an assessment, a financial model was developed that assessed the upfront and ongoing financial impact on the ACT Government. The model was used to calculate the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) for each of the options to determine whether the ACT Government would receive a net financial benefit from the colocation option. 6.1.1 Options The financial appraisal has been developed to incorporate all of the colocation options and corresponding development scenarios. Each colocation option is applicable only under certain development scenarios. Table 6.1 outlines the colocation options considered within the appraisal and the corresponding development scenario under which it could apply. Table 6.1: Colocation Options and Corresponding Development Scenarios Colocation Option Corresponding Development Scenario Option 1 Scenario 3 Option 1a Scenario 1 Option 2 Scenario 3 Option 3 Scenario 1 Option 4 Scenario 2 Option 5 Scenario 2 Option 6 Scenario 1 Option 7 Scenario 1 Option 8 Scenario 3 Option 8a Scenario 1 Overall, the ACT Government appraisal considers 40 permutations of colocation options, development scenarios and low and high cost/revenue scenarios. 6.1.2 Key Parameters The valuation of economic costs and benefits was based on the key economic parameters shown in Table 6.2: Deloitte Access Economics 33 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 6.2: Key Parameters Parameter Assumption for appraisal Discount rate 9.7% nominal (7% real)3 Evaluation period 30 years Valuation In nominal terms Profit margin and taxes Included with the exception of GST Price year Current prices Base case No base case assumed Fiscal year Financial year Coverage ACT Government costs and benefits only The financial appraisal assumes that infrastructure costs and property values increase above inflation over the evaluation period. Land and house prices are assumed to move in line with historical movements in property values in the ACT, movements in construction costs and civil costs reflect movements in costs recorded by Rawlinsons Australian Construction Handbook, and the value of retail space is assumed to move in line with the cost of constructing retail space. Assumed indexation rates, which have been applied over the evaluation period, are shown in Table 6.3: Table 6.3: Assumed Nominal Indexation Rates Variable Annual Rate of Indexation General inflation rate 2.5% p.a. Land values 5.5% p.a. House prices 5.5% p.a. Commercial property prices 4.0% p.a. Civil costs 4.0% p.a. Construction costs 4.0% p.a. 6.1.3 Exclusions The financial appraisals are strategic in nature and are subject to the following limitations and exclusions: The financial appraisals take no account of tax implications (e.g. income tax, depreciation), apart from the stamp duty, land tax and rates revenues projected to be accrued by the ACT Government. The financial model will only assess the financial impacts on the ACT Government from a whole of government perspective i.e. flows between different agencies/departments are not considered. 3 The assumed real discount rate of 7% p.a. was converted to a nominal rate using the Fisher equation and an assumed rate of inflation of 2.5% p.a. i.e. (1 + 𝑑) = (1 + 7%)(1 + 2.5%) = (1 + 9.7%) Deloitte Access Economics 34 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 6.2 Costs and Benefits Table 6.4 outlines the key costs and benefits incorporated in the appraisal from the perspective of the ACT Government. Table 6.4: Key Costs and Benefits Considered Category Description Civil costs Cost of parks, roads and other public infrastructure as part of urban renewal Consultants costs Cost associated with civil works EPIC/Thoroughbred Park colocation costs Cost of colocation (assumed that the full costs are borne by the ACT Government) Land sales related costs Costs associated with the sale of land Land sale revenues Revenue to the ACT Government from the sale of land Property tax revenues Revenues to the ACT Government from stamp duty, land tax, rates, holding costs The financial assessment captures the direct cash flows accruing to the ACT Government due to the development. At this stage, the analysis does not include an estimate of the broader costs to the ACT Government that may be funded by the increased taxes as the costs of social infrastructure may have been incurred in any case if the residents were living elsewhere in the ACT and due to uncertainty about who would bear these additional costs. The analysis also does not include any direct financial payments to the codes or changes to the current funding arrangements4. To avoid double counting, the costs of financing are reflected in the discount rate used within the financial appraisal. 6.3 Results The financial model calculated the BCR of each of the colocation options. The results reflect the upfront and recurrent revenues and costs associated with different redevelopment scenarios and the costs associated with different relocation options. The projected BCRs are shown in Figure 6.1 and Table 6.5. Based on our analysis, the colocation options that may not provide a net financial benefit for the ACT Government are Options 2 and 3 (colocation of all of the racing codes at Thoroughbred Park with and without EPIC). 4 The ACT Government currently provides funding to the ACT racing industry. In 2012-13, the ACT Government provided $7.7 million, which was divided between the clubs according to a set formula of 75% for CRC and 12.5% each for CGRC and CHRC (EDD 2013). Deloitte Access Economics 35 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Option 3 (colocation of all of the racing codes and EPIC at Thoroughbred Park) is projected to have a net cost for the ACT Government regardless of whether low or high cost and revenue rates are assumed. Option 2 (colocation of all of the racing codes at Thoroughbred Park) may also not be financially viable depending on the cost/revenue rates assumed. Chart 6.1: Projected BCR Ranges (ACT Government) Deloitte Access Economics 36 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Table 6.5: Projected BCRs Development Scenario Scenario 1: Low Scenario 2: Low Scenario 3: Low Scenario 1: High Scenario 2: High Scenario 3: High Relocation Option Option 1a Option 3 Option 6 Option 7 Option 8a Option 4 Option 5 Option 1 Option 2 Option 8 Option 1a Option 3 Option 6 Option 7 Option 8a Option 4 Option 5 Option 1 Option 2 Option 8 Low High 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 2.0 Estimates are in current prices with all cash flows indexed over time. Cash flows are discounted at a nominal discount rate of 9% p.a. over a 30 year evaluation period. A BCR that is greater than 1 is favourable and means the benefits are greater than the costs, a BCR that is less than one means the costs are greater than the benefits. Deloitte Access Economics 37 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 7 Options assessment The following chapter provides an assessment of each of the options against the objectives that were set out in Chapter 2 and provides an indication of the options that the ACT Government may wish to investigate further as part of a detailed feasibility study. This chapter also provides analysis on the risk versus reward of each of the options. 7.1 Strategic alignment This section provides a rating of each option against the objectives that have been identified for this project drawing on the analysis in the previous chapters. Figure 7.1 provides a summary of how each of the options rates against the objectives using a five-point scale. The assessment provides an indication of the relative merits of each option and is based on the analysis undertaken in the preceding chapters. Deloitte Access Economics 38 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Figure 7.1: Alignment of colocation options to objectives Source: Deloitte Access Economics Deloitte Access Economics 39 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Based on our analysis, the colocation options are seen to divide into three broad categories in terms of alignment with the objectives of the project (high, medium and low alignment). Table 7.1: Options categorised by alignment with objectives Low alignment Medium alignment High alignment Option 1 Option 6 Option 4 Option 1a Option 7 Option 5 Option 2 Option 8 Option 3 Option 8a Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis. 7.1.1 Options with low strategic alignment The options with the lowest alignment to the objectives for the colocation are the options that involve moving the other racing codes and EPIC to Thoroughbred Park. Our analysis shows that Options 2 and 3 are not financially viable. The costs of relocation and consolidation on the Thoroughbred Park site would outweigh the revenue from redeveloping part or all part of the EPIC site. Options 1 and 1a provide a net financial benefit to the ACT Government but provide a lower benefit than the other options. Options 1 and 2 involve the redevelopment of part of the EPIC site, which provides less of an opportunity for the ACT Government for urban renewal. Options 1a and 3 provide additional opportunities for redevelopment as they include the full EPIC site, however, under these options a significant investment is required to colocate the codes on Thoroughbred Park and thus these options make it unlikely that further development at Thoroughbred Park would be undertaken in the short to medium term. These options would provide some synergies and operational efficiencies for the racing industry and EPIC and some additional revenue opportunities, however the complexity of colocation on an existing site means the efficiencies and revenue opportunities are lower than at a greenfield site. Colocation at Thoroughbred Park would also not address any of the current constraints in terms of noise restrictions or increasing autonomy for CHRC. Options 1 and 1a are achievable on the basis of the current available land at Thoroughbred Park although there are challenges in terms of negotiating governance arrangements for the new site. Including CGRC on site as well would increase the difficultly of fitting all three codes onto the same site and if this option was pursued may require acquisition of additional land. Also including EPIC at Thoroughbred Park would require a complete redevelopment of the site as well as potentially requiring additional land, which makes this option unlikely to be able to be achieved. 7.1.2 Options with medium strategic alignment The options with a medium alignment to the objectives for the colocation relative to the other options are the options that involve moving the EPIC, CHRC and CGRC to a greenfield site or to Symonston. These options do not involved relocating CRC. Deloitte Access Economics 40 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities All of these options are financially viable. The revenue to the ACT Government would be lower because they do not involve the development of Thoroughbred Park but this would be partly offset by lower costs for relocation. These options all provide an opportunity for the ACT Government to undertake urban renewal and increase urban infill through the development of all or part of the EPIC site, but to a lesser extent than the options that include Thoroughbred Park. By locating EPIC and CHRC at a greenfield site these options do not prevent the future development of Thoroughbred Park and could be undertaken as the first phase of the urban renewal at EPIC and Thoroughbred Park. These options would provide synergies and operational efficiencies for the racing industry and EPIC. Colocation at a greenfield site or fully redeveloped Symonston site would provide an opportunity to include infrastructure to increase these benefits. Similarly, additional revenue opportunities would be possible and could be further enhanced through the design of a new site. These options may also address the current noise restrictions and could increase autonomy for CHRC. The greenfield options (6 and 7) are readily achievable. Location of CHRC at the CGRC Symonston site (options 8 and 8a) would require redevelopment of the Symonston site and investigation of adjacent land, which makes these options more difficult but still achievable. 7.1.3 Options with high strategic alignment The options with the highest alignment to the objectives for the colocation are the options that involve moving all of the racing codes and EPIC to a greenfield site or sites. Options 4 and 5 provide the largest potential financial benefit to the ACT Government over time. The relocation costs of these options are higher because they involve relocating all of the racing codes and EPIC, but they also produce the largest financial benefit for the ACT Government through the redevelopment of the full EPIC site and Thoroughbred Park. They also provide the greatest opportunity to the ACT Government for urban renewal. These options would also provide operational efficiencies and additional revenue opportunities, which could be included as part of the design of the new facilities. These options would also address the constraints of the current sites. These options are both achievable and a greenfield site would mean the site could be designed to accommodate the needs of each of the racing codes and EPIC. 7.2 Risk versus strategic alignment It is also important to consider how the risks associated with each option compare to their strategic alignment. This is shown in Figure 7.2 drawing on the results of the risk assessment undertaken in Chapter 6 and the strategic assessment in the previous section. Deloitte Access Economics 41 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Figure 7.2: Risk versus strategic alignment for colocation options High strategic alignment Option 4 Option 5 Option 7 Option 8a Option 6 Option 8 High risk Low risk Option 1 Option 1a Option 3 Proposed colocation site Thoroughbred Park Option 2 Greenfield site Symonston Low strategic aligment Source: Deloitte Access Economics. The diagram shows that while Options 4 and 5 (relocating all of the clubs and EPIC to a greenfield site) have the highest strategic alignment, they also have a relatively higher risk profile than the options with a medium strategic alignment. Options 8 and 8a (relocating CHRC to Symonston, with EPIC remaining on site or moving to a greenfield site) have a lower strategic alignment but are also lower risk, compared to Options 4 and 5. Noting that these options would require CGRC to cease operations while new facilities were constructed and the CGRC are uncertain that this option would be able to be easily implemented due to concerns around topography of the current site. Options 6 and 7 (EPIC and CHRC relocated to a greenfield site, with and without CGRC), have an even lower risk and only a slightly reduced strategic alignment compared with Options 4 and 5. The Thoroughbred Park options have a lower strategic alignment, with generally higher risk. Given that they also generate a lower (or negative) financial return, we consider that these options are not worth pursuing further. Deloitte Access Economics 42 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities 8 Conclusion Our analysis suggests that there are a number of colocation options that are feasible and align with the objectives for this project. Further, our analysis suggests that these options are also financially viable for the ACT Government. The colocation options that we have assessed as worthy of further consideration are: Option 4 or 5 – colocate the racing codes and EPIC at a greenfield site, with an option for EPIC to be at a separate greenfield site; Option 6 or 7 – colocate the CHRC and EPIC at a greenfield site, with or without CGRC; Option 8 or 8a – colocate CHRC and CGRC at Symonston with EPIC either consolidated on its existing site or at a greenfield site. This option is more complicated than colocation at a greenfield site but could be pursued if a suitable greenfield site cannot be identified; and Staged approach – implement Option 6 or 7 in the first instance, with a long-term plan to achieve colocation of all the racing codes and EPIC (i.e. Option 4 or 5). Options 4 and 5 have the highest alignment with the objectives and the largest estimated financial return, but they are also higher risk than the other options. Options 6 and 7 also provide a feasible colocation solution and are lower risk, although they are also expected to generate a lower financial benefit and are not as strongly aligned with all of the objectives as Options 4 and 5. Furthermore, as Options 4 and 5 are for the relocation of all of the racing codes and EPIC, it may be possible to stage these options over time. This could involve pursuing Options 6 and 7 in the first instance and then move the other parties to a new location over time. This would reduce upfront costs and is not ruled out under any of these options. 8.1 Next steps The ACT Government may now wish to undertake further investigation of some of these options with the racing industry. There are two elements to the further work that are required to progress these options: engagement with the racing industry; and detailed analysis of the colocation options and urban renewal possibilities. Deloitte Access Economics 43 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities References ACT Government 2008, Territory Plan 2008, Canberra, ACT. ACT Government 2012, Investigation into the ACT Racing Industry - ACT Government Response to the Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission Report 2 of 2011, viewed on 26 March 2014, http://www.economicdevelopment.act.gov.au/about_us/files/ gaming_and_racing/investigation_into_the_act_racing_industry_-_Report_2. ACT Planning and Land Authority 2010, Gungahlin Town Centre – planning report, ACT Planning and Land Authority, Canberra, ACT. Economic Development Directorate (EDD) 2013, Annual Report 2012-13, EDD, Canberra, ACT. Economic Development Directorate (EDD) 2013, Indicative Land Release Programs 2013–14 to 2016–17, EDD, Canberra, ACT. Exhibition Park Corporation (EPC) 2013, Annual Report 2012-13, EPC, Canberra, ACT. Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) 2011, Investigation into the ACT racing industry - Final report, ICRC, Canberra, ACT. National Capital Authority 2013, Consolidated National Capital Plan, National Capital Authority, Canberra, ACT. Deloitte Access Economics 44 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Appendix A: Consultations Record of stakeholder consultations Deloitte Access Economics has engaged and consulted extensively with all of the organisations (CRC, CGRC, CHRC, and EPIC) throughout the project. The detailed requirements and views of each organisation in regards to colocation and the potential to develop the racing industry in the ACT have been included in the draft report. Introductory meetings Deloitte Access Economics met with each of the codes individually on 17 December 2013. At these meetings we discussed the purpose of the project and the codes gave us there initial views on the colocation options. The attendees at these meetings were: Ashley Dwyer, Chairman, CGRC Peter Stubbs, Chief Executive and Andrew Clark, Chief Financial Officer, CRC Ray Redman, President and Greg Nugent, General Manager, CHRC We also met with Liz Clarke, CEO of Exhibition Park in Canberra on 18 December. Site visits On 29 January, Deloitte Access Economics undertook a site visit of the EPIC and Thoroughbred Park sites to gain an understanding of the sites. We were shown around EPIC by Liz Clarke, who explained what would be (and would not) be needed at a new site. We were also given a tour of the Thoroughbred Park by Chris Ward (Chairman) along with Paul Meiklejohn (Vice Chairman), Peter Stubbs and Andrew Clark. Deloitte Access Economics also visited the CGRC site on 18 March, to meet with representatives from the club (Ashley Dwyer and Debbie Collier, Secretary), discuss the club’s requirements for a new facility and the potential for colocation on the site, and obtain industry estimates for relocation costs to triangulate with the initial cost estimates that had been prepared. Requirements for colocation A detailed data request was sent to all organisations that sought information on the requirements of each club if colocation were to occur. These requirements related to infrastructure (e.g. race track, training facilities, grandstands, office buildings, carpark, function facilities, etc.); site requirements (such as dams and noise restrictions); and additional logistical requirements (for example, cross-code facilities that can’t be located in close proximity, and typical racing/training schedules). The organisations were able to list their requirements in terms of minimum requirements (i.e. requirements that would allow the organisation to continue the current scope of their operations) and maximum requirements (i.e. requirements that would allow each organisation to achieve their aspirational or developmental aims). Deloitte Access Economics 45 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities The responses from the organisations were further discussed at a roundtable hosted by Deloitte Access Economics on 12 February which all organisations and ACT Government representatives attended. This allowed the organisations to discuss their requirements which each other, and analyse the scope to address potential logistical issues. The organisations also discussed their concerns and issues with the project, and how these may be resolved. Following the roundtable, Deloitte Access Economics prepared: Two-page summaries for each organisation that outlined their key issues and concerns, and articulated each organisation’s vision for potential colocation. Each organisation reviewed their summary and provided comments to ensure it accurately reflected their views. These summaries have been included as appendices in the draft report. A summary spreadsheet of each club’s site requirements (both minimum and maximum requirements) that was approved by each organisation. This spreadsheet has been included as an appendix in the draft report. Costs of colocation Estimated colocation costs (both minimum and maximum requirements) for all of the ten options were provided to the organisations. These costs were broken down into the following categories: race track, buildings, training facilities, other, carpark, grandstand, site works, project management, design and planning, and contingency. Deloitte Access Economics met with Peter Stubbs and Andrew Clark of the CRC on 10 April, to discuss the estimated colocation costs for the CRC under each applicable scenario. Deloitte Access Economics also met separately with the Ashley Dwyer of the CGRC on 15 April to discuss the CGRC’s estimated colocation costs. The representatives from the CRC and CGRC validated that the estimated costs for their organisation across the options were a reasonable reflection of the relocation costs that would be incurred. All parties noted that these estimate were still high-level and that detailed design work would be required as part of subsequent stages to determine a more accurate cost. Presentation of results Deloitte Access Economics gave a presentation of the results to the racing codes on 22 July and provided the codes with a confidential draft copy of the report. The codes were invited to provide comments on the report. The representatives from the codes at this meeting were: Ashley Dwyer and Debbie Collier, CGRC Chris Ward, Paul Meiklejohn, Peter Stubbs and Andrew Clark, CRC Ray Redman and Greg Nugent, CHRC Summary of feedback on the draft report Canberra Racing Club After careful consideration of the draft report, including the opportunities and risk that are identified, the views of Members and the future direction of racing industry, the Club has firmly resolved that it is not in the best interests of the Club, nor the industry, to proceed Deloitte Access Economics 46 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities further with any future relocation. The Club therefore requests that any option involving the relocation of Thoroughbred Park not be considered further. The Club values Thoroughbred Park extremely highly and intends to continue to develop it to become a world class racing and training venue. The Club was anticipating that the study would identify the value and economic contribution the Canberra Racing Club would be making to any relocation project given that in the event of a relocation option being considered feasible it would be the only one of the three codes that would be making a capital contribution to the project by forgoing its land for urban renewal. The report is entirely silent as to the quantum of value that would be provided to the Club, merely noting that the Club would have to be “incentivised” to relocate. The study identifies that the ACT Government will need to consider the costs of access and the opportunity cost of allocating greenfield land for colocation. Similarly the Canberra Racing Club must consider the opportunity cost of forgoing its land. In the absence of information with regard to the value of its land for urban renewal and without allocating funds for an independent valuation it is impossible for the Canberra Racing Club to make an informed decision. Related ACT Government urban renewal priorities included in the report including City to the Lake, Northbourne Avenue Redevelopment, Gunghalin Town Centre and Capital Metro are considered in the context of urban redevelopment of Thoroughbred Park and EPIC. There is no balancing case for retaining Thoroughbred Park to enhance the City by complementing Capital Metro, retaining a major entertainment precinct close to the CBD, access to Northbourne Avenue redevelopments and having a racing facility and green space adjacent to Gunghalin. Some of the most successful horse racing facilities in the world and Australia are surrounded by urban development, including but not limited to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, Flemington in Victoria and Randwick in Sydney. In these locations the racing facilities complement the city and its residents. The only reference to the benefits or otherwise of retaining Thoroughbred Park as a horse racing facility is as a possible risk mitigation option for the ACT Government by additional negotiation to expand Thoroughbred Park. The Club considers that the relocation of Harness racing to Thoroughbred Park is not adequately considered. Whilst that is not the preferred option for the Club, in the opinion of the Club it is certainly a feasible option worthy of future discussions. For operational reasons (including insurance and risk issues), any further consideration of that option could only be considered on the basis that the Club would continue to control and manage the overall facility. Nevertheless, the Club is sure that any resulting operational issues could be appropriately and harmoniously managed. Deloitte Response A formal land valuation of the Thoroughbred Park site was out of scope for this project. However, we did estimate the expected proceeds from selling the land at Thoroughbred Park, which formed one of the inputs for the cost-benefit analysis. The ACT Government has chosen not release this analysis due to its commercial sensitivity. Deloitte Access Economics 47 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities While, the colocation of the Harness Racing Club at Thoroughbred Park may be a viable option from the viewpoint of the Canberra Racing Club, the Harness Racing Club has expressed its concern with continuing to be a tenant and the uncertainty created by the lack of autonomy. Canberra Harness Racing Club The Canberra Harness Racing Club is comfortable with the preferred options. CHRC reiterated that their core desire is to be able to operate in an autonomous manner and do not wish to continue being a tenant. CHRC see this as an opportunity for their industry to consolidate and grow and to be able to control their future. They also see it as an opportunity for innovation in the industry especially if the chosen site is a greenfield site. CHRC would welcome the opportunity to be part of the first stage of development, if this project was to proceed. Canberra Greyhound Racing Club In relation to the key options identified in the report, CGRC offers the following comment. CGRC is content to stay at Symonston. There is mixed opinion, based on work to date, as to the likely cost and benefits of a move to a greenfields site. CGRC are supportive if the situation was beneficial. There is no value in co-location of the Harness function to Symonston. While the relationship between racing codes is good, this is not a practical option for reasons such as the topography of the Symonston land that would require massive, and potentially exorbitant, earthworks to fit both functions onto the Symonston land. There would also be a need for total demolition and rebuild of current greyhound infrastructure to accommodate the infrastructure and layout of both harness and greyhounds racing and training. CGRC support Greenfields options whereby: there is at least the same greyhound specific infrastructure ( e.g. track, kennels, training facilities, etc.); generic race code infrastructure (e.g. car park, office, bar, restaurant, fencing, etc.) is provided at the new site, before the greyhound racing function moved to a greenfields site; and There is an agreed staged strategy to acquire and redevelop land to fund a Greenfields site if the cost-benefit analysis supported this. While the exact location of any potential Greenfields site may need to stay undisclosed at this stage, there needs to be an assurance in the next body of work that minimum requirements for the three codes plus EPIC are clearly understood and agreed to before progressing too far. There is also a need for an agreed governance and management structure of common facilities, with appropriate autonomy of codes for administering and governing the respective codes to everyone’s benefit, and no one’s detriment. There is qualified support to move greyhound racing to Thoroughbred Park. CGRC advise that any move of the greyhound function from Symonston to Thoroughbred Park does not appear to offer a better solution than to remain at Symonston. Considerations include: Deloitte Access Economics 48 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities The Thoroughbred Park redevelopments required to accommodate the greyhound functions do not appear to provide the economies of scale desired and required. The current working relationship is very good between codes, however, the Greyhound Board would not support a tenancy arrangement at Thoroughbred Park. Deloitte Response We agree that there are barriers to colocating the Harness Racing Club at Symonston, including the disruption to CGRC operations and the costs of preparing the land. However, if a suitable greenfield site could not be identified, the Symonston site may be worth investigating further. We agree that the other issues raised by CGRC would need to considered as part of a potential second stage of work. Deloitte Access Economics 49 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Appendix B: Stakeholder views Following our consultations, we prepared a summary of the issues and concerns raised by the racing codes and EPIC during our consultations and the vision that each stakeholder had for the colocation. We then asked each of the stakeholders to confirm our understanding of their views. The summaries are provided below. Canberra Racing Club Summary of issues and concerns The CRC owns its facility, and most infrastructure at the club’s site is sufficient to meet their needs. As such, the CRC will require incentives and an appropriately-structured financial compensation package to either move away from Thoroughbred Park, or to allow the other racing codes to colocate at Thoroughbred Park. Unlike the other racing codes, the CRC is the owner of their facility – the CHRC rents its facilities at EPIC, and the CGRC rents its facilities at Symonston. Colocating the other race codes at Thoroughbred Park may require CRC to act as a lessor of the site, at least in the short term, which would be a significant change from the CRC’s current organisational model. The CRC’s current facilities at Thoroughbred are adequate for current operations. If the CRC were to move to a new facility or allow the other race codes to colocate at Thoroughbred Park, the CRC would require new infrastructure. Relocation to Thoroughbred Park by CHRC Club would require significant infrastructure development including racing and training tracks, stabling, race day stalls to accommodate both thoroughbred and harness horses, access to tracks, judging/photo finish/ race caller facility and remodelling of administration. The synthetic (Acton Track) would require significant and costly refurbishment of the surface and drainage works to bring it up to suitable racing standard. A complicating factor for potential colocation is that much of the key infrastructure for the CRC is unable to be shared with other racing codes in the ACT, and needs to be replicated for each code. Firstly, horse races are run in the opposite direction to harness races, which means separate race track infrastructure is required. Secondly, the race day stalls for thoroughbreds are shorter compared to harness stalls due to harness and sulky requirements, which means that race day stalls can’t be shared across the codes. Segregated training facilities would follow that full time stabling should also be segregated. Thirdly, there needs to be physical segregation of the horse and greyhound racing and training facilities to ensure that the two types of animals are not frightened. If the animals are frightened or disturbed then there is the risk that they may injure themselves or racing personnel. Experience at other colocated racing facilities has shown that scheduling access to racing or training facilities does not sufficiently segregate the two types of animals. Deloitte Access Economics 50 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities As with the other racing codes and EPIC, a key concern for the CRC is the lack of certainty of ACT Government funding beyond 2016-17. The CRC would like to diversify the club’s revenue streams to ensure their long-term viability. To diversify the club’s revenue streams, the CRC has previously experimented with operating a licensed premises at Thoroughbred Park. This was not profitable, and as such the CRC would be hesitant to trial a similar facility unless there is substantial residential development with easy access nearby. The ownership and management structure of a colocated facility is an issue that will need to be resolved for all parties. Potentially, this may involve a CEO overseeing the facility, with managers for each of the racing codes and EPIC. Administration, maintenance and operating costs for a colocated facility will also need to be shared appropriately between all parties. Vision for colocation The CRC owns their facility, and most infrastructure at Thoroughbred Park is sufficient to meet the club’s needs. As such, the CRC will require incentives and an appropriatelystructure financial compensation package to be incentivised to either move away from Thoroughbred Park, or to allow the other racing codes to colocate at Thoroughbred Park. The new facility could draw on the economies of scale generated from having the racing codes together, and could include features such as a licensed premises (depending on location and/or proximity to light rail), improved veterinary facilities (possibly in partnership with a university), and onsite accommodation for staff. The onsite accommodation for staff would assist in attracting staff to Canberra, who are often dis-incentivised by the city’s high cost of living. On-site accommodation would increase labour supply, reduce staff turnover, and assist younger employees to get a start in the industry through lower housing costs. A new facility would also have a re-designed synthetic and ambulance track, more race days stalls, possibly incorporated into an air-conditioning building and, more office space. An improved and expanded range of facilities may make it possible for discussions between Governments and the Governing Racing Bodies in each state over the future of the Queanbeyan Racing Club. If the CRC were colocated with the other racing codes, the resultant economies of scale may make a licensed premises profitable. In addition, closer proximity to light rail or other non-racing retail establishments may draw additional clientele to the CRC’s site. Deloitte Access Economics 51 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Canberra Harness Racing Club Summary of issues and concerns The CHRC currently obtains approximately 90 per cent of its revenue from ACT Government funding. However, as with the other racing codes and EPIC, this funding is only guaranteed until 2016-17 and so the CHRC would like to diversify its revenue streams to ensure the club’s long-term viability. The ability of CHRC to diversify its revenue streams is limited by the constraints of its current site at EPIC and because they are leasing the site. Due to size constraints and the need to fit in with EPIC’s schedule of events, the CHRC are unable to develop new infrastructure and facilities, and schedule races at optimal times that would maximise turnover. Given that ownership arrangements, size and scheduling conflicts are key concerns at its current site, the CHRC have a strong preference for colocating at a greenfield site with more room and flexibility for scheduling and would allow them to have more control over the site. The CHRC are not amenable to colocating at Thoroughbred Park, as they will continue to be tenants at this site. Much of the key infrastructure for the CHRC is unable to be shared with other racing codes in the ACT and needs to be replicated for each code. Firstly, harness races are run in the opposite direction to other horse races. This means that additional race track infrastructure such as cameras and a finish post is required, but other broadcast facilities can be shared. Secondly, while the stables for harness racing horses can be shared with other horses, the harness racing stables need additional room in front of the stables to allow for carts to be attached to the horses. Thirdly, there needs to be physical segregation of the horse and greyhound racing and training facilities to ensure that the two types of animals are not frightened. If the animals are frightened or disturbed then there is the risk that they may injure themselves or racing personnel. Experience at other colocated racing facilities has shown that scheduling access to racing or training facilities does not sufficiently segregate the two types of animals. If the CHRC was to colocate with other codes at a greenfield site and grow the club’s revenue base, the club would not seek to grow its market presence by facilitating races with higher value prize pools. The CHRC does not have the resources to compete with the larger race tracks in the ACT/NSW harness racing market, and as such has developed a niche in the market as the provider of races with lower value prize pools. Rather, the CHRC would increase the number of races they operate. The ownership and management structure of a colocated facility is an issue that will need to be resolved for all parties. Potentially, this may involve a CEO overseeing the facility, with managers for each of the racing codes and EPIC. Maintenance costs for a colocated facility will also need to be shared appropriately between all parties. Deloitte Access Economics 52 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Vision for colocation The CHRC have a strong preference for colocating at a greenfield site with more space and scheduling flexibility. This would allow the club to construct new facilities which would differentiate it in the harness racing market and allow it to diversify its revenue streams. The key development that CHRC would pursue is the construction of a 1,600 metre straight track, which would differentiate the CHRC’s track from all other harness racing providers in the market. At present, all harness races in the market are run on a conventional round track, which significantly disadvantages the horses that start on the outside of the track. The straight track would be integrated into the conventional race track, similar to the model used at Flemington in Victoria. The CHRC does not currently have much bargaining power with their television broadcaster, Sky TV. A new greenfield site with improved facilities and race scheduling may also assist the CHRC to improve on their lack of bargaining power. The CHRC is currently seeking advice from Sky TV on their views of a straight track. The CHRC would be able to develop new infrastructure and race offerings, which could be leveraged in negotiations to demonstrate points of difference in the harness racing market, such as a straight race track. A new site with new infrastructure and race offerings would assist the CHRC in their efforts to attract sponsors and marketing revenue. In addition, at a greenfield site the CHRC would seek to construct state-of-the-art training facilities, such as a swimming pool, walking machines, a sand roll, and a sand jogging track. The CHRC could enter into a partnership with a university to operate a veterinary hospital, and establish a multi-code centre of excellence. There is also the opportunity to explore the possibility of providing training for industry participants at a greenfield site. The CHRC has raised the possibility of constructing on-site accommodation for staff at a greenfield site, which could be shared among the codes. It can often be difficult to attract staff to Canberra, given the city’s high cost of living. On-site accommodation would increase labour supply, reduce staff turnover, and assist younger employees to get a start in the industry through lower housing costs. The accommodation may also allow satellite stables from interstate trainers who use the facility to be established. The CHRC would also consider constructing a synthetic training and racing track, to reduce the significant water costs associated with maintaining grass tracks. This track could be used by both the CHRC and the CRC to train and race the clubs’ horses. Deloitte Access Economics 53 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Canberra Greyhound Racing Club Summary of issues and concerns The CGRC’s primary concern relates to the potential colocation of horses and greyhounds at a shared facility. Much of the key infrastructure for the CGRC is unable to be shared with the other racing codes, and needs to be replicated. Firstly, there needs to be physical segregation of the horse and greyhound racing and training facilities to ensure that the two types of animals do not come into contact with each other. If the animals come into contact with each other, they may become frightened or disturbed which may result in the animal injuring themselves or people. Experience at other colocated racing facilities has shown that scheduling access to shared racing or training facilities does not sufficiently remove the risk of the two types of animals coming into contact with each other. Secondly, race day infrastructure such as tracks and kennels are very different for greyhounds and horses, and so these facilities cannot be shared. Some ancillary race day infrastructure such as grandstands, cabling and feeds for photo finish and broadcasting and steward rooms may be able to be shared if designed well. Other ancillary race day infrastructure may need to be replicated for each race track. This may include infrastructure such as the judge’s box and location of video cameras, where there is a dependence on the individual race code finish line. Thirdly, the CGRC will not agree to the greyhound track being located within the confines of a horse or harness racing track. Under this approach, spectators are too far removed from the track and will be less likely to attend races at the track. Greyhounds are very sensitive to loud noises, and so noise levels would need to be assessed at a new site before the CGRC agreed to relocate. The current noise levels at the CGRC’s Symonston facility are satisfactory. As with the other racing codes in Canberra, a key concern for the CGRC is the lack of certainty of ACT Government funding beyond 2016-17, and the CGRC would like to diversify its revenue streams to ensure the club’s long-term viability. The CGRC currently rent some of their facility to an outdoor fitness club, and have previously held other non-greyhound events at the track. The majority of the CGRC’s revenue is derived from racing fees from being broadcast on Sky TV. Given that the CGRC depends financially on broadcast revenues, the CGRC would require a potential new facility to be fully constructed before the club would move to it. Broadcast revenue would be negatively impacted if the CGRC were required to temporarily halt their racing schedule. The topography of the CGRC’s current site at Symonston precludes another tenant colocated there. The only available land for another tenant is steeply sloped, and to be made useable would require substantial earthworks with a significant financial cost attached. Deloitte Access Economics 54 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities The ownership and management structure of a colocated facility is an issue that will need to be resolved for all parties. Potentially, this may involve a CEO overseeing the facility, with managers for each of the racing codes and EPIC. Maintenance costs for a colocated facility will also need to be shared appropriately between all parties. Vision for colocation The CGRC is open to the idea of colocation, provided that the CGRC’s facilities are separate from the facilities for horse and harness racing. However, synergies could be realised through the sharing of office space and administrative functions, the construction of a shared multi-storey carpark for patrons, and from shared maintenance costs. The CGRC’s facilities would need to be an improvement on their current facilities at Symonston. This would include: a longer straight on the race track (modelled on the Bendigo track), and a longer straight training track; increased water storage facilities; a swimming pool for therapy or exercise, which could potentially be shared with the horses; and a grass paddock for free galloping. Deloitte Access Economics 55 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Exhibition Park in Canberra Summary of issues and concerns The primary concern for EPIC is in regards to the nature, intensity and duration of the events that are held at the site each year. While the existing facility can adequately accommodate these events, if they were to colocate with the racing codes then EPIC’s calendar of events may impose restrictions on the racing codes. The potential conflict with the racing codes would be EPIC’s three major events Summernats, the Royal Canberra Show, and the National Folk Festival. These events have long set up and pack down periods which make it difficult or unable to use the site for other purposes. In addition, the lights, smells and sounds (including fireworks) often associated with these events may negatively impact on greyhounds or horses on race days at a colocated facility (this is unlikely to be an issue on non-race days). If EPIC was relocated some of its current events may move to alternate venues, for example the Farmers markets held on Saturday mornings. Each event also has its own infrastructure requirements, which would need to be catered for at a new location. These include basic camping facilities, circuitous and straight bitumen roads for Summernats, a main arena, dog rings, exhibition buildings, meeting rooms, toilets and showers, grassed areas, stables, and administration offices. A large carpark including coach/bus parking bays would also be required to accommodate event patrons. An ongoing challenge for EPIC relates to its revenue base. EPIC’s charter is to operate self-sufficiently (where possible), and not be reliant on the ACT Government for its funding. Towards this goal, EPIC has implemented a number of alternate revenue streams including a profitable camping ground that meets the travelling needs of grey nomads visiting the Nation’s Capital, as well as patrons attending events at the venue. EPIC has identified an area for potential revenue growth in hosting more outdoor concerts and/or motor sport events at the venue. There is a demand for these type of events in Canberra, but there are a limited number of venues able to host these due to noise restraints. Due to EPIC’s close proximity to urban areas in Dickson and Watson, EPIC is limited to the number of events it can host, even during the day, per year. Another area for potential revenue growth is hosting larger exhibitions. Increasing exhibition building space would allow EPIC to attract national and international trade shows that currently are not able to be held in the ACT. The ownership and management structure of a colocated facility is an issue that will need to be resolved for all parties. The governance model will be the key to successfully managing a new collocated facility. Potentially, this may involve a CEO or Board overseeing the facility, with managers for each of the racing codes and EPIC. There is potential for shared revenue opportunities such as catering commission from catered events at the facility. Maintenance costs for a colocated facility will also need to be shared appropriately between all parties. Deloitte Access Economics 56 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Vision for colocation While EPIC’s current facility is more than sufficient for its operations, the organisation is agreeable to the idea of colocation with some or all of the racing codes at a greenfield location with less stringent noise restrictions. This would allow EPIC to host outdoor concerts and/or motor sport events, as there is currently limited venues in the ACT. In addition, being able to increase the number of these type of events would further increase EPIC’s revenue base. EPIC has also indicated that if relocated it would be possible for the venue’s footprint to consolidate. Under this option, an area of approximately 20 hectares would be sufficient for EPIC to continue to host its events. Deloitte Access Economics 57 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Appendix C: Requirements for a new facility Table C.1 provides the information we gathered during our consultations from the ACT racing clubs and EPIC about their requirements for a possible new or colocated site. This data was used to inform the estimates of the costs of relocating and colocating the racing industry. We collected information for a low and high cost scenario. The low cost represents the minimum requirements the site would need to have to replicate the existing facilities of the racing industry and EPIC and the full range of facilities represent those that would be desirable for the racing clubs to meet all of the strategic and business plans for their code. Table C.1: Minimum and full range of facilities required Minimum requirements CRC Full range of facilities CHRC CGRC Length: straight 1600m Surface: synthetic Dimensions: 30m wide Length: approx. 120m back and front straights Surface: Sand Dimensions: oval track approx. 457m x 5m wide EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Racing infrastructure Racing Track Length: 2200m Length of straight: 500m Surface: Turf Dimensions: 25m wide Length: 1800m Length of straight: 400m Surface: Synthetic Dimensions: 20m wide Redesign of synthetic track and ambulance track Length: 2200m Length of straight: 500m Surface: Turf Dimensions: 25m wide Length: Straight 1600m plus oval 1200m Surface: Gravel Dimensions: 30m wide Length: approx. 150m back and front straight lengths Surface: Sand Dimensions: approx. 600m oval track Length: 1800m Length of straight: 400m Surface: Synthetic Dimensions: 20m wide Deloitte Access Economics 58 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC Training Track Length: 1800 to 2000m Length of straight: 400m Surface: Turf – B Grass Training Track suitable for racing Dimensions: 20m wide CHRC Length: 800m Surface: synthetic Dimensions: 30m wide Full range of facilities CGRC Straight training track: Length: 400 m Surface: Sand Dimensions: 8 m Exercise yards: Length: 100 m Surface: Sand Dimensions: 25 m EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC Length: 1800 to 2000m Length of straight: 400m Surface: Turf – B Grass Training Track suitable for racing Dimensions: 20m wide Length: 800m Surface: synthetic Dimensions: 30m wide and 10m wide Lights Straight training track: Length: 600 m Surface: Sand Dimensions: 8 m Exercise yards: Length: 100 m Surface: Sand Dimensions: 25 m Length: 1600m Length: 1600m Length of straight: 300m Length of straight: 300m Surface: Sand Surface: Sand Dimensions: 10m Dimensions: 10m Additional - Length: 1600m Additional Length: 1600m Length of straight: 300m Length of straight: 300m Surface: Sand Surface: Sand Dimensions: 10m Dimensions: 10m Required to accommodate up to 500 horses Required to accommodate up to 500 horses EPIC Deloitte Access Economics 59 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC Stables/Kennels – race day 150 tie up stalls CHRC 100 stables 3 swab stables 5 overnight visitor stables 2 veterinary facilities Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC Race Day kennels & Trial Kennels 1 Kennel block to house approximately 180 dogs 6m x 4m storage area, weigh room 6m x 12m, Stewards room Vets room Rugs/Freezer room Toilet Staff locker area Wash bay in kennels Stables for Canberra show CRC CHRC 150 tie up stalls 100 stables 3 swab stables 5 overnight visitor stables With air conditioning 2 veterinary facilities With air conditioning CGRC Race Day kennels & Trial Kennels 1 Kennel block to house approximately 180 dogs 6m x 4m storage area, weigh room 6m x 12m, Stewards room Vets room Rugs/Freezer room Toilet Staff locker area Wash bay in kennels EPIC Stables for Canberra show With air conditioning Stables/Kennels – longer-term 500 stables plus 500 stable yards 60 stables + day yards. Away from the track. Approx. 10 for travelling / visiting trainers May utilise race day trial kennels 500 stables plus 500 stable yards 80 stables + day yards With air conditioning With air conditioning. Approx. 10 for travelling / visiting trainers May utilise race day trial kennels With air conditioning Grandstand 2000 member grandstand. 2000 public grandstand 400 500 2000 member grandstand. 2000 public grandstand 1000 500 Deloitte Access Economics 60 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Office buildings 1 office building for 30 staff (in the event of colocation of all codes and EPIC to accommodate Administration, Racing, Events & Catering Staff) Yes - for 2 staff Yes - 4 staff Main Office 12m x 6m for 2 admin staff plus Board meeting table, safe and filing/copying equipment Archive room 2m x 6m Yes for EPIC, RNCAS, Summerna ts 1 office building for 30 staff (in the event of colocation of all codes and EPIC to accommodate Administration, Racing, Events & Catering Staff) Yes - for 4 staff Yes - 4 staff Main Office 12m x 6m for 2 admin staff plus Separate Board meeting room, safe and filing/copying equipment Archive room 4m x 12m Yes for EPIC, RNCAS, Summernats Car parks 1800 public car parks, and 250 for members. 90 vehicle car park for horse floats (40 trucks + 50 cars) which would need to be near the stables. 300 for race days 40 plus grassed area Some days would require 2500 spaces 1800 public car parks, and 250 for members. 90 vehicle car park for horse floats (40 trucks + 50 cars) which would need to be near the stables. 800 for major race days 100 plus grassed area Some days would require 2500 spaces Status quo is 3 function rooms (for 600) and 2 commercial kitchens (for 1000) Yes, one event with on-site catering 10, 15 people, on-site catering Commerci al kitchen Status quo is 3 function rooms (for 600) and 2 commercial kitchens (for 1000) Yes, 4 events with on-site catering 10, 15 people, onsite catering Commercial kitchen Yes Yes Additional facilities Function facilities Cool rooms and bar facilities Broadcasting studio Yes, purpose built for television production and race day sound operations Cool rooms and bar facilities Yes Yes Yes, purpose built for television production and race day sound operations Deloitte Access Economics 61 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC Licenced club Consider Veterinary facilities Food outlet CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC Yes Yes, Bar and Lounge area, Cool room Consider Yes Yes, Bar and Lounge area, Cool room Yes Yes in kennel block Full equine veterinary clinic including equine operation facility (consider relocating Canberra Equine Hospital) Yes Yes in kennel block Yes or some form of water supply Water tank stored water 160,000 litres Kennel Tank 20,000 litres Bore water per day average 30,000 litres at capacity of the bore 1 (50 mega litres), install bore for pumping in excess of 150 megalitres per annum Yes - self-sufficient could be achieved through water harvesting on-site Water tank stored water 250,000 litres Bore water per day 40,000 litres EPIC Yes, 8000 people Site Dam(s) 1 (50 mega litres), install bore for pumping in excess of 150 megalitres per annum Non town water solution Non town water solution Deloitte Access Economics 62 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Other 20 Horse walkers (walkers accommodate 8 horses) Open paddock areas with sufficient and appropriate shelter Lounge area toilets: men's & women's 10,000m2 of exhibition space. With 2,500m2 foyer plus 1,000m2 loading dock/com mercial kitchen. 20 Horse walkers (walkers accommodate 8 horses) Open paddock areas with sufficient and appropriate shelter Lounge area toilets: men's & women's 10,000m2 of exhibition space. With 2,500m2 foyer plus 1,000m2 loading dock/commercial kitchen. Wi-Fi capabilities Central ‘tack rooms’ with storage for large items Betting area toilets: men's & women's 6000m2 of exhibition space with 1500m2 foyer and 1000m2 loading dock/com mercial kitchen Wi-Fi capabilities Central ‘tack rooms’ with storage for large items Betting area toilets: men's & women's 6000m2 of exhibition space with 1500m2 foyer and 1000m2 loading dock/commercial kitchen Equine pool Large fenced sand arena (possible inside training track) Bistro: seating for 70 5000m2 under cover atrium – joining the two exhibition buildings Equine pool Large fenced sand arena (possible inside training track) Bistro: seating for 70 5000m2 under cover atrium – joining the two exhibition buildings Deloitte Access Economics 63 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC Full range of facilities CHRC CGRC EPIC CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC 5 Covered round yards Quarantine area for sick/infectious horses to be away from stabling complex. Bistro: Disabled toilet & women's toilet/mothers room Basic camping (major events) 5 Covered round yards Quarantine area for sick/infectious horses to be away from stabling complex. Bistro: Disabled toilet & women's toilet/mothers room Basic camping (major events) Water walker Secure covered Float parking facility Race Day Office 3m x 6m in betting area Circuitous road (Summern ats) Water walker Secure covered Float parking facility Race Day Office 3m x 6m in betting area Circuitous road (Summernats) APN (2 people) Secure Machinery and workshop area. Groundsman work and storage Straight bitumen road (approx. 600 metres) – use for burnouts (Summern ats) APN (2 people) Secure Machinery and workshop area. Groundsman work and storage Straight bitumen road (approx. 600 metres) – use for burnouts (Summernats) Racecaller room (1 person) Secure garaging for Mobiles Groundsman Garage: 6 bay garage sufficient for equipment, truck, ute, tractor, transport buggy and associated equipment such as slasher etc. Main arena with lighting Racecaller room (1 person) Secure garaging for Mobiles Groundsman Garage: 6 bay garage sufficient for equipment, truck, ute, tractor, transport buggy and associated equipment such as slasher etc. Main arena with lighting Deloitte Access Economics 64 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC CGRC EPIC Wood Shed 10m x 4m Dog rings (combined for German Shepherds /Dogs ACT) + one ‘club house’ Sound technician room (2 people) Diesel Shed 3m x 2m Stewards room (10 people) Trainers hut (multiple trainers to view and time track work) Judges room (3 people) Turnstiles (8000 people) CHRC Full range of facilities Could get by on 55 hectares of space. CRC CHRC CGRC EPIC Judges room (3 people) Could get by on 55 hectares of space. Wood Shed 10m x 4m Dog rings (combined for German Shepherds/Dogs ACT) + one ‘club house’ Exhibition Halls / break out rooms / meeting rooms Sound technician room (2 people) Swimming pool and other equine facilities (chiro, dentist) Diesel Shed 3m x 2m Exhibition Halls / break out rooms / meeting rooms Front Gate Box 2m x 2m Sheds Stewards room (10 people) Walking Machines Front Gate Box 2m x 2m Sheds Laundry & Toilet Block Toilets/sho wers Trainers hut (multiple trainers to view and time track work) Sand Roll Laundry & Toilet Block Toilets/showers Grass areas Turnstiles (8000 people) Sand jogging track Swimming exercise / therapy pool (perhaps shared facility with horses) Grass areas Deloitte Access Economics 65 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC 2 Members room (500 people) CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC Could get by with 10 hectares for the entire site. CRC CHRC 2 Members room (500 people) Does not currently have a big screen, but would use it if available. Owners room (100 people) Owners room (100 people) Vet hospital partnership with a university Committee room (30 people) Committee room (30 people) Multi code Centre of Excellence 2 Jockeys rooms (male/female, 25 people) 2 Jockeys rooms (male/female, 25 people) Mounting yard (for parade pre-race and jockeys to mount and return after race) Mounting yard (for parade prerace and jockeys to mount and return after race) Equine jumps facility for training Equine jumps facility for training Storage shed (for club related equipment) Storage shed (for club related equipment) CGRC Free Galloping paddock: 200 m x 200 m grass surface EPIC Could get by with 10 hectares for the entire site. Deloitte Access Economics 66 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC CRC Work shed (to accommodate all machinery and equipment, Racecourse manager’s office and staff facilities for track staff. (Security fence around) Work shed (to accommodate all machinery and equipment, Racecourse manager’s office and staff facilities for track staff. (Security fence around) Chemical store and wash down shed to meet legislative requirements Chemical store and wash down shed to meet legislative requirements Steward Towers Steward Towers Track hut Track hut Manure pits Manure pits Track lights Track lights Irrigation system (all tracks including sand) Irrigation system (all tracks including sand) Big screens Big screens Supervisor house Supervisor house Caretaker house Caretaker house Consider stable staff accommodation Consider stable staff accommodation CHRC CGRC EPIC Deloitte Access Economics 67 Colocation feasibility study – racing codes and exhibition facilities Minimum requirements CRC CHRC Full range of facilities CGRC EPIC CRC Retail outlets (consider for saddler, feed merchants and farrier) Retail outlets (consider for saddler, feed merchants and farrier) Semaphore board Semaphore board Finishing post Finishing post CHRC CGRC EPIC Betting room Bar Gaming machines Deloitte Access Economics 68 Limitation of our work General use restriction This report is prepared solely for the internal use of the ACT Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. This report is not intended to and should not be used or relied upon by anyone else and we accept no duty of care to any other person or entity. The report has been prepared for the purpose of undertaking an economic cost benefit analysis of colocation of the Australian Capital Territory racing codes and the Exhibition Park in Canberra facilities. You should not refer to or use our name or the advice for any other purpose. Deloitte Access Economics 69 Contact us Deloitte Access Economics ACN: 149 633 116 Level 1 9 Sydney Avenue Barton ACT 2600 PO Box 6334 Kingston ACT 2604 Australia Tel: +61 2 6175 2000 Fax: +61 2 6175 2001 www.deloitteaccesseconomics.com.au Deloitte Access Economics is Australia’s preeminent economics advisory practice and a member of Deloitte's global economics group. The Directors and staff of Access Economics joined Deloitte in early 2011. 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