1|Page April 11, 2010 ANALYST: GARRETT B. OZBUN Comcast Corporation Ticker: NASDAQ: CMCSA Sector: Services (Consumer Discretionary) Industry: Cable & Satellite Pricing Current Price: $18.50(4/11/10) 52 week: $13.04-$19.04 Key Statistics Market Cap: $52.50 B Beta: 0.9 P/E: 14.67 EPS: 1.26 Shares: 2.84 B ROA: 4.04% ROE: 8.75% Net Profit Margin: 10.18% Operating Margin: 20.40% Employees: 107,000 Recommendation: *BUY ($24.61 Intrinsic Value) Comcast Corporation is an undeniable powerhouse when it comes to media services, telephone, cable, and internet. At the foundation of my thesis for investing in Comcast is its position in the market. Having the most customers gives them pricing power amidst heavy competition and an incredible infrastructure. They have also made some recent strategic acquisitions (NBCU) that have helped to further their market penetration. Although in the very short term this acquisition may cause some problems in the long term Comcast would be an excellent addition to the IFM portfolio and provide exposure to an area of consumer spending that is rapidly expanding. Comcast has the capital resources to expand their portfolio of products and methods of funneling media to their customers as a wide array of technologies develop over the next few years. Several companies (Verizon, AT&T) claim that fiber optics will be the true “end-all” of Comcast. However, cable internet speed is more than capable to handle the ever-increasing demand for streaming media content and other high-speed services. Many residential users have barely touched the full capability of their internet provider and the issue of speed will not come into effect for another 5+ years at the earliest. I look to Comcast being a moderate growth stock with a large potential upside because of how internet and television services playing a larger role in the average consumer’s household. Being the dominate player provides a steady flow of cash and a high rate of adaptability if the industry outlook should change. *Analyst note: to take full advantage of potential Comcast growth I recommend buying Comcast at staggered buy ins. The full repercussions have not been fully reflected in the market price from the NBCU merger/acquisition. Once Comcast identifies itself in the industry and its new role then I believe going forward they would be a better investment. 2|Page April 11, 2010 History/Corporate Overview Comcast Corp. became the largest U.S. cable multiple system operator (MSO) after its acquisition of the former AT&T Broadband (ATTB) in November 2002. In December 2009, the company formalized a plan to assume 51% control of a joint venture comprising General Electric's (GE 16, Buy) NBC Universal, in exchange for contributing its own programming networks (valued at $7.25 billion) plus an initial cash outlay of $6.5 billion. As of December 31, 2009, the company had nearly 23.6 million video subscribers (including over 18 million for digital video -- with advanced services such as HD and DVR), over 15.9 million for high-speed Internet service, and 7.6 million for digital phone. The primary Cable segment (about 95% of total revenues) also includes the regional sports and news networks -Comcast SportsNet: Philadelphia, Mid-Atlantic (Baltimore/Washington), Chicago, Sacramento, New England (Boston) and Northwest; Bay Area SportsNet (San Francisco); Cable Sports Southeast; CN8 -- The Comcast Network; and MountainWest Sports Network. The Programming segment include cable networks E! Entertainment Television, The Golf Channel, Versus, G4 and Style. Other business interests include Comcast Spectacor (which owns the Philadelphia Flyers, the Philadelphia 76ers and two large, multipurpose arenas in Philadelphia and manages other venues); and Comcast Interactive Media (comprising Internet assets such as Comcast.net, Fancast, thePlatform and Fandango). STOCK PERFORMANCE 3|Page April 11, 2010 RECENT GENERAL DEVELOPMENTS (COMCAST 10-K REPORT) The following are the more significant developments in our businesses during 2009: • an increase in consolidated revenue of 3.9% to approximately $35.8 billion and an increase in consolidated operating income of 7.2% to approximately $7.2 billion • an increase in Cable segment revenue of 3.8% to approximately $33.9 billion and an increase in operating income before depreciation and amortization of 4.0% to approximately $13.7 billion • an increase in Programming segment revenue of 4.9% to approximately $1.5 billion and an increase in operating income before depreciation and amortization of 7.5% to approximately $389 million • the addition of approximately 1.0 million high-speed Internet customers and approximately 1.1 million phone customers; a decrease of approximately 623,000 video customers • a reduction in Cable segment capital expenditures of 9.2% to approximately $5.0 billion • the continued investment in service enhancements, including the transition from analog to digital transmission of approximately 40 to 50 of the channels we distribute (“our all digital conversion”), which allows us to recapture bandwidth and expand our video service offerings; the continued deployment of DOCSIS 3.0 wideband technology, which allows us to offer faster high-speed Internet service; the offering of certain cable network programming to our customers online through Fancast XFINITY TV; and the initial deployment of 4G wireless high-speed Internet service in certain markets • a decrease in our total debt outstanding of $3.4 billion or 10.4% to approximately $29.1 billion, which is primarily due to repayment of scheduled debt and the repurchase of debt securities prior to their scheduled maturities • the repurchase of approximately 49.8 million shares of our Class A and Class A Special common stock under our share repurchase authorization for approximately $765 million • we declared dividends of approximately $850 million in 2009 and paid approximately $761 million in 2009; in February 2009, our Board of Directors increased the planned annual dividend by 8% to $0.27 per share; and in December 2009, it increased the planned annual dividend by 40% to $0.378 per share, with the first quarterly payment of $0.0945 per share occurring in January 2010. 4|Page April 11, 2010 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE In a typical market, Comcast competes with satellite TV companies DirecTV Group and DISH Network as well as large telcos such as Verizon Communications and AT&T, which are increasingly deploying fiber-based video and broadband services in head-to-head competition with cable's triple-play bundle. In a number of other markets, cable providers also compete with rural telcos as well as facilities-based overbuilders that provide video, voice and data services to residential, and in some cases, enterprise customers. Amid continuing audience fragmentation in the Internet era, more consumers are accessing an ever-growing trove of online TV content that increasingly includes many of their favorite programming—in many cases, for free. If unchecked, Standard & Poor’s believes that this phenomenon could lead to a longer-term disruption of traditional business models for the cable and broadcast industry. Consequently, several pay TV providers, in collaboration with programmers, have accelerated their efforts to provide online access of TV shows to their subscribers, based on a new authentication technology under the so-called “TV Everywhere” initiative. TV Everywhere is an authentication system whereby certain premium content (such as TV shows and movies) are available online—but only if the user can prove (or authenticate) that he has a subscription to a multiservice operator (e.g., cable, satellite, telco TV). Comcast and Time Warner Inc. have been the most aggressive champions of this effort. In December 2009, the largest US cable operator launched a national beta version of its Fancast Xfinity service, and began streaming full-length episodes of certain TV shows and movies to its subscribers (at no additional cost). In addition to programming from the stable of cable networks owned by Time Warner (HBO, TNT, TBS, Cartoon Network) and Comcast (E!, Style, G4, FearNet), other participating cable channels include Cablevisions System Corp.’s AMC, IFC, WE tv, and Sundance Channel; Scripps Networks Interactive Corp.’s HGTV, Food Network, DIY Network, and Fine Living Network; A&E Television Networks’ A&E and History; BBC America; and MGM Impact. So far, CBS is the only broadcast network to join the TV Everywhere initiative. (S&P NetAdvantage) S&P sees a sequential second-half 2009 improvement in pay-TV subscriber growth continuing in 2010. Still, the "battle of the bundles" among cable operators, satellite TV and telcos will likely intensify. Advanced video offerings such as high-definition (HD), video-on-demand (VOD) and digital video recorders (DVRs) are gaining further penetration. S&P expects cable providers and the telcos to deploy ultra-fast wireline broadband speeds, integrated voice services, and wireless broadband offerings. 5|Page April 11, 2010 DIRECT COMPETITOR COMPARISON CMCSA DTV DISH Pvt1 Industry Market Cap: 52.50B 32.96B 9.72B N/A 5.80B Employees: 107,000 21,800 24,500 47,0001 10.00K Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): 2.80% N/A 1.40% N/A 16.50% Revenue (ttm): 35.76B 21.57B 11.66B 17.87B1 3.46B Gross Margin (ttm): 59.74% 49.32% 39.79% N/A 52.12% EBITDA (ttm): 13.80B 5.31B 1.89B N/A 1.28B Oper Margins (ttm): 20.40% 12.40% 14.99% N/A 13.60% Net Income (ttm): 3.64B 942.00M 635.54M 1.07B1 N/A EPS (ttm): 1.261 0.95 1.418 N/A N/A 6|Page April 11, 2010 P/E (ttm): 14.67 37.11 15.35 N/A 17.28 PEG (5 yr expected): 1.2 0.89 1.38 N/A 1.71 P/S (ttm): 1.46 1.51 0.81 N/A 1.47 DTV = DIRECTV DISH = Dish Network Corp. Pvt1 = Time Warner Cable Inc. (privately held) Industry = CATV Systems 1 = As of 2009 ANALYST OPINIONS RECOMMENDATION TRENDS Current Month Last Month Two Months Ago Three Months Ago Strong Buy 8 8 8 8 Buy 7 7 7 7 Hold 9 10 10 10 Underperform 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0 0 0 Data provided by Thomson/First Call PRICE TARGET SUMMARY Mean Target: 19.45 Median Target: 19.00 High Target: 25.00 Low Target: 16.00 7|Page April 11, 2010 No. of Brokers: 19 Data provided by Thomson/First Call VALUATION The consensus among analysts is that Comcast is positioned well in the industry. Most all conclude that the stock is undervalued and positioned for growth. Some analysts maintain that in the short term the market price will fall slightly and then rebound in the longer term, however, this is a minority opinion. I feel very strongly towards the role of instant media content/video on demand/broadband internet as the go to source of entertainment for consumers. As the US government pushes for broadband internet for every American, Comcast may even play a big role with this movement. I calculated the discount rate using the CAPM model. I used a beta of .9, a risk free rate of .147(3 month t-bill rate), and a market return of 10%. Using these assumptions, the discount rate would be: K=.00147+.9(.10-.00147) = 9.015% Using this discount rate and a second stage growth rate of 2% I arrived at an intrinsic value of $24.61. Therefore, Comcast is undervalued. 8|Page April 11, 2010 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 12 months In Millions of USD (except for ending 2009per share items) 12-31 Revenue 35,756.00 Other Revenue, Total Total Revenue 35,756.00 Cost of Revenue, Total 14,396.00 Gross Profit 21,360.00 Selling/General/Admin. 7,646.00 Expenses, Total Research & Development Depreciation/Amortization 6,500.00 Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating Unusual Expense (Income) 44.00 Other Operating Expenses, Total Total Operating Expense 28,586.00 Operating Income 7,170.00 Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets Other, Net 22.00 Income Before Tax 5,106.00 Income After Tax 3,628.00 Minority Interest 10.00 Equity In Affiliates Net Income Before Extra. Items 3,638.00 Accounting Change Discontinued Operations Extraordinary Item Net Income 3,638.00 Preferred Dividends Income Available to Common 3,638.00 Excl. Extra Items Income Available to Common 3,638.00 Incl. Extra Items Basic Weighted Average Shares - 12 months ending 200812-31 34,423.00 34,423.00 13,639.00 20,784.00 12 months ending 200712-31 31,060.00 31,060.00 12,334.00 18,726.00 12 months ending 200612-31 24,966.00 24,966.00 9,819.00 15,147.00 7,652.00 6,940.00 5,705.00 6,400.00 6,208.00 4,823.00 - - - 28.00 27,719.00 6,704.00 4.00 25,486.00 5,574.00 20,347.00 4,619.00 - - - -285.00 4,058.00 2,525.00 22.00 2,547.00 2,547.00 - 522.00 4,349.00 2,549.00 38.00 2,587.00 2,587.00 - 114.00 3,594.00 2,247.00 -12.00 2,235.00 2,533.00 - 2,547.00 2,587.00 2,235.00 2,547.00 2,587.00 2,533.00 - - - 9|Page 12 months In Millions of USD (except for ending 2009per share items) 12-31 Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items Dilution Adjustment Diluted Weighted Average 2,885.00 Shares Diluted EPS Excluding 1.26 Extraordinary Items Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items Dividends per Share - Common 0.30 Stock Primary Issue Gross Dividends - Common Stock Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Expense Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense Depreciation, Supplemental Total Special Items Normalized Income Before Taxes Effect of Special Items on Income Taxes Income Taxes Ex. Impact of Special Items Normalized Income After Taxes Normalized Income Avail to Common Basic Normalized EPS Diluted Normalized EPS 1.27 April 11, 2010 12 months 12 months 12 months ending 2008- ending 2007- ending 200612-31 12-31 12-31 - - - - - - - - 0.00 2,952.00 3,129.00 3,180.00 0.86 0.83 0.70 - - - 0.25 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.00 0.83 0.70 In Millions of USD (except As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2008for per share items) 12-31 09-30 06-30 03-31 12-31 Cash & Equivalents 671.00 862.00 3,989.00 1,879.00 1,195.00 Short Term Investments 50.00 56.00 62.00 59.00 59.00 10 | P a g e In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Cash and Short Term Investments Accounts Receivable - Trade, Net Receivables - Other Total Receivables, Net Total Inventory Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets, Total Total Current Assets Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Gross Accumulated Depreciation, Total Goodwill, Net Intangibles, Net Long Term Investments Other Long Term Assets, Total Total Assets Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable/Short Term Debt Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases Other Current liabilities, Total Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Capital Lease Obligations Total Long Term Debt Total Debt Deferred Income Tax Minority Interest Other Liabilities, Total Total Liabilities Redeemable Preferred Stock, Total April 11, 2010 As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 200812-31 09-30 06-30 03-31 12-31 721.00 918.00 4,051.00 1,938.00 1,254.00 1,711.00 1,639.00 1,677.00 1,483.00 1,626.00 1,711.00 791.00 3,223.00 1,639.00 849.00 3,406.00 1,677.00 809.00 6,537.00 1,483.00 829.00 4,250.00 1,626.00 836.00 3,716.00 51,665.00 50,321.00 49,259.00 48,487.00 47,679.00 -27,810.00 -26,716.00 -25,544.00 -24,449.00 -23,235.00 14,933.00 63,557.00 5,947.00 1,218.00 112,733.00 2,999.00 14,934.00 63,651.00 5,699.00 1,168.00 112,463.00 3,005.00 14,928.00 63,743.00 5,190.00 1,124.00 115,237.00 3,320.00 14,893.00 63,892.00 4,872.00 1,126.00 113,071.00 3,119.00 14,889.00 64,007.00 4,783.00 1,178.00 113,017.00 624.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,156.00 954.00 4,167.00 2,647.00 2,278.00 7,249.00 27,940.00 27,940.00 29,096.00 27,800.00 256.00 6,767.00 70,012.00 7,092.00 28,493.00 28,493.00 29,447.00 27,566.00 238.00 6,763.00 70,152.00 10,557.00 28,870.00 28,870.00 33,037.00 27,394.00 248.00 6,435.00 73,504.00 8,887.00 29,415.00 29,415.00 32,062.00 27,188.00 267.00 6,219.00 71,976.00 2,644.00 8,939.00 30,178.00 30,178.00 32,456.00 26,982.00 297.00 6,171.00 72,567.00 - - - - - 11 | P a g e In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net Common Stock, Total Additional Paid-In Capital Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) Treasury Stock - Common Other Equity, Total Total Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Shares Outs - Common Stock Primary Issue Total Common Shares Outstanding April 11, 2010 As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 2009- As of 200812-31 09-30 06-30 03-31 12-31 - - - - - 32.00 40,247.00 33.00 40,451.00 33.00 40,561.00 33.00 40,668.00 33.00 40,620.00 10,005.00 9,416.00 8,736.00 8,004.00 7,427.00 -7,517.00 -46.00 42,721.00 -7,517.00 -72.00 42,311.00 -7,517.00 -80.00 41,733.00 -7,517.00 -93.00 41,095.00 -7,517.00 -113.00 40,450.00 112,733.00 112,463.00 115,237.00 113,071.00 113,017.00 - - - - - 2,837.57 2,854.68 2,869.79 2,883.38 2,880.64 In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Cash & Equivalents Short Term Investments Cash and Short Term Investments Accounts Receivable - Trade, Net Receivables - Other Total Receivables, Net Total Inventory Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets, Total Total Current Assets Property/Plant/Equipment, Total Gross Accumulated Depreciation, Total Goodwill, Net Intangibles, Net Long Term Investments Other Long Term Assets, Total Total Assets Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses As of 200912-31 671.00 50.00 721.00 1,711.00 1,711.00 791.00 3,223.00 As of 200812-31 1,195.00 59.00 1,254.00 1,626.00 1,626.00 836.00 3,716.00 As of 200712-31 963.00 98.00 1,061.00 1,645.00 1,645.00 961.00 3,667.00 As of 200612-31 1,239.00 1,735.00 2,974.00 1,450.00 1,450.00 778.00 5,202.00 51,665.00 47,679.00 43,432.00 36,754.00 -27,810.00 14,933.00 63,557.00 5,947.00 1,218.00 112,733.00 2,999.00 -23,235.00 14,889.00 64,007.00 4,783.00 1,178.00 113,017.00 624.00 -19,808.00 14,705.00 62,816.00 7,963.00 642.00 113,417.00 494.00 -15,506.00 13,768.00 60,808.00 8,847.00 532.00 110,405.00 453.00 12 | P a g e April 11, 2010 In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Notes Payable/Short Term Debt Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases Other Current liabilities, Total Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Capital Lease Obligations Total Long Term Debt Total Debt Deferred Income Tax Minority Interest Other Liabilities, Total Total Liabilities Redeemable Preferred Stock, Total Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net Common Stock, Total Additional Paid-In Capital Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) Treasury Stock - Common Other Equity, Total Total Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Shares Outs - Common Stock Primary Issue Total Common Shares Outstanding In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Net Income/Starting Line Depreciation/Depletion Amortization Deferred Taxes Non-Cash Items Changes in Working Capital As of 2009- As of 2008- As of 2007- As of 200612-31 12-31 12-31 12-31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,156.00 2,278.00 1,495.00 983.00 7,249.00 27,940.00 27,940.00 29,096.00 27,800.00 256.00 6,767.00 70,012.00 - 2,644.00 8,939.00 30,178.00 30,178.00 32,456.00 26,982.00 297.00 6,171.00 72,567.00 - 2,627.00 7,952.00 29,828.00 29,828.00 31,323.00 26,880.00 250.00 7,167.00 72,077.00 - 2,893.00 7,191.00 27,992.00 27,992.00 28,975.00 27,338.00 241.00 6,476.00 69,238.00 - - - - - 32.00 40,247.00 33.00 40,620.00 34.00 41,688.00 35.00 42,401.00 10,005.00 7,427.00 7,191.00 6,214.00 -7,517.00 -46.00 42,721.00 -7,517.00 -113.00 40,450.00 -7,517.00 -56.00 41,340.00 -7,517.00 34.00 41,167.00 112,733.00 113,017.00 113,417.00 110,405.00 - - - - 2,837.57 2,880.64 3,011.03 3,119.53 9 months ending 200909-30 2,668.00 4,148.00 760.00 572.00 215.00 -638.00 6 months ending 200906-30 1,734.00 2,786.00 507.00 394.00 206.00 -514.00 12 months ending 200912-31 3,628.00 5,483.00 1,017.00 832.00 280.00 -959.00 3 months ending 200903-31 778.00 1,380.00 253.00 214.00 127.00 -240.00 13 | P a g e April 11, 2010 12 months 9 months ending 2009- ending 200912-31 09-30 Cash from Operating Activities 10,281.00 7,725.00 Capital Expenditures -5,639.00 -3,891.00 Other Investing Cash Flow -258.00 -110.00 Items, Total Cash from Investing Activities -5,897.00 -4,001.00 Financing Cash Flow Items -209.00 -186.00 Total Cash Dividends Paid -761.00 -568.00 Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, -764.00 -437.00 Net Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, -3,174.00 -2,866.00 Net Cash from Financing Activities -4,908.00 -4,057.00 Foreign Exchange Effects Net Change in Cash -524.00 -333.00 Cash Interest Paid, 2,040.00 1,678.00 Supplemental Cash Taxes Paid, Supplemental 1,303.00 940.00 In Millions of USD (except for per share items) In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Net Income/Starting Line Depreciation/Depletion Amortization Deferred Taxes Non-Cash Items Changes in Working Capital Cash from Operating Activities Capital Expenditures Other Investing Cash Flow Items, Total Cash from Investing Activities Financing Cash Flow Items Total Cash Dividends Paid Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, 6 months 3 months ending 2009- ending 200906-30 03-31 5,113.00 2,512.00 -2,522.00 -1,293.00 -48.00 -23.00 -2,570.00 -22.00 -375.00 -1,316.00 0.00 -180.00 -107.00 0.00 755.00 -332.00 251.00 2,794.00 -512.00 684.00 1,063.00 664.00 746.00 161.00 12 months ending 200912-31 3,628.00 5,483.00 1,017.00 832.00 280.00 -959.00 12 months ending 200812-31 2,525.00 5,457.00 943.00 495.00 827.00 -16.00 12 months ending 200712-31 2,549.00 5,107.00 1,101.00 247.00 -538.00 -277.00 12 months ending 200612-31 2,533.00 3,828.00 995.00 674.00 -1,118.00 -294.00 10,281.00 10,231.00 8,189.00 6,618.00 -5,639.00 -6,277.00 -6,564.00 -4,701.00 -258.00 -1,200.00 -1,585.00 -5,171.00 -5,897.00 -209.00 -761.00 -7,477.00 -153.00 -547.00 -8,149.00 62.00 0.00 -9,872.00 25.00 - -764.00 -2,747.00 -2,690.00 -1,937.00 -3,174.00 925.00 2,312.00 5,458.00 14 | P a g e In Millions of USD (except for per share items) Net Cash from Financing Activities Foreign Exchange Effects Net Change in Cash Cash Interest Paid, Supplemental Cash Taxes Paid, Supplemental April 11, 2010 12 months ending 200912-31 12 months ending 200812-31 12 months 12 months ending 2007- ending 200612-31 12-31 -4,908.00 -2,522.00 -316.00 3,546.00 -524.00 232.00 -276.00 292.00 2,040.00 2,256.00 2,134.00 1,880.00 1,303.00 762.00 1,638.00 1,284.00