A.P. Statistics 2015-2016 Advanced Placement Statistics Instructor: Mrs. Soto Room: 224 (South) Phone/ Voice Mail: (616) 738-6946 School E-mail Address: sotol@westottawa.net Website: wosotomath.weebly.com Twitter: @wosotomath Availability outside of class: seminar, before school, after school most days Course Description: The purpose of AP Statistics is to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data (Ch. 1-3): Describing patterns and departures from patterns 2. Sampling and Experimentation (Ch. 4): Planning and conducting a study 3. Anticipating Patterns (Ch. 5-7): Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation 4. Statistical Inference (Ch. 8-12): Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Materials Needed Daily: Graphing Calculator (recommended models: TI-83, TI-83 Plus, TI-84, TI-84 Plus, TI-84 Silver ed.) Textbook Writing utensil – pencil preferred Lined paper and 3-ring binder Textbook: Starnes, Tabor, Yates, and Moore. The Practice of Statistics, 5th ed. Classroom Expectations: The following is a list of simple behavior guidelines to which we will all abide. 1. Respect other students, the teacher, and the classroom. 2. Be on time to class. We need every minute we can get. 3. All electronic devices should be used appropriately, in a way that does not distract from teaching or learning. 4. Be an active learner. Participate in discussions. Ask questions. Help others. You will get more out of the class this way. Assignments: Practicing mathematical concepts is essential to successfully understanding the material. Assignments will be given daily, with few exceptions. Students typically are given 1-2 days to complete each assignment. Solutions to most of the assignments will be posted in the Google classroom. They are available for you to monitor your progress. If you need help on homework assignments, please see me outside of class time. Most homework will be scored as complete/incomplete. Some assignments will be collected and graded in detail. There is no penalty for late work due to excused absences. If special circumstances exist and you feel you need more time for homework, please come see me. A.P. Statistics 2015-2016 Absences: It is the student’s responsibility to see me about any material missed due to an absence. Any assignment, test, or quiz that was due or took place on the day of an absence, is due or will take place the day the student returns, unless prior arrangements have been made. Students are notified well in advance of any quizzes or tests. If a student is absent on the day before a quiz or test, he or she will be expected to take the assessment upon return during the class period it is administered to the entire class (unless PRIOR arrangements have been discussed with me.) If two or more days are missed before a test or quiz, it is the responsibility of the student to reschedule the test/quiz promptly with me upon return. Test Retakes: There are no retests in this college-level course. Grading: The math department grading scale will be used. 18-week grades will be calculated as follows: Tests: 70 % Quizzes: 25 % Assignments/Homework: 5 % Final semester grades will be calculated one of two ways, and the higher of the two grades will be recorded. 18-week cumulative grade: 80 % or 18-week cumulative grade: 66.6% Semester Exam: 20 % Semester Exam: 33.3% Resources to Help You be Successful: Subscribe to class announcements via Remind101: text “@sotostats” to 81010 Visit my website: wosotomath.weebly.com. Use the “AP Statistics” tab to find PowerPoint notes, or the “More Study Tools” tab to find flash cards, videos, and other resources. Join our Google Classroom: Use class code “7jkxf7” to join A.P. Statistics 2015-2016 Course Topics: UNIT I: EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS: Chapters 1–3: Observing Patterns and Departures from Patterns Enduring Understandings: Interpretation of graphical displays of distributions of univariate data is essential in understanding data patterns. Graphical skills are created for the purpose of analysis and communication. Calculating descriptive statistics is essential in summarizing distributions of univariate data. Comparison of distributions of univariate data is important in discovering data patterns. Exploring relationships between bivariate data is necessary in order to fit an appropriate model to the data. Frequency tables are used to explore relationships between categorical variables. Exploratory analysis of data makes use of graphical and numerical techniques to study patterns and departures from patterns. Regression is an effective model for prediction. There is a difference between causation and correlation. Knowledge and Skills: Dot Plots Stem and Leaf Plot Scatterplots Box &Whisker Plot Mode Range IQR Quartiles Clusters Gaps Correlation Coefficient r Normal Distribution Simpson’s Paradox Qualitative Variables Standard Normal Calculations Marginal Frequencies Relative Frequencies Write regression equations given summary statistics Histograms Cumulative Frequency plots Mean Median Variance Standard Deviation Percentiles Z-scores Outliers Influential Points Coefficient of Determination r2 Quantitative Variables Bar Charts Two-way Tables Read/interpret computer printouts UNIT II: EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Chapter 4: Producing Data Enduring Understandings: There are many different methods of data collection, depending on the goal(s) of the study. It is important to use appropriate techniques when planning and conducting surveys. It is important to use appropriate techniques when planning and conducting experiments. Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information is to be obtained. Appropriate generalizations can be made from properly conducted observational studies, experimental studies, and surveys. Clarifying the question leads to appropriate methodology. Knowledge and Skills: Census Population Bias Experimental Units Blinding Replication Randomized Design Sample Survey Sample Treatment Random Assignment Placebo Effect Blocking Experiment Random Selection Control Group Random Digit Table Lurking Variable Cluster Sample Observational Study Simple Random Sample Stratified Random Sample Confounding Variable Double Blind Multi-Stage Sample A.P. Statistics 2015-2016 UNIT III: ANTICIPATING PATTERNS: Chapters 5–7: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation Enduring Understandings: Probability is the tool for anticipating what a distribution of data should look like under a given model. Probability is the basis for statistical inference. Independent random variables can be combined to produce new models. A binomial model is very useful in many discrete real-life situations. A geometric model may be appropriate for some discrete real-life situations. The normal distribution and central limit theorem are essential to analyzing samples of data. Sampling distributions are necessary in producing models when population data is not feasible. Knowledge and Skills: Law of Large Numbers Multiplication Rule for Probability Independent Events Mutually Exclusive Events Tree Diagrams Geometric Distributions Standard Deviation Linear Transformations Properties of a Normal Distribution Sampling Distribution of a Proportion Sampling Dist. Of a Diff of Proportions Addition Rule for Probability Union Conditional Probability Intersection Discrete Random Variables Events Continuous Random Variables Outcomes Binomial Distributions Central Limit Theorem Expected Value (mean) Simulation Independent Random Variables TI-83 use Dependent Random Variables Venn Diagrams Rules for Sums/Differences of Random Variables Sampling Distribution of a Mean Z-Scores Sampling Dist of a Diff of Means Table Use UNIT IV: STATISTICAL INFERENCE: Chapters 8–12: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Enduring Understandings: Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models. Confidence intervals can be used to make decisions regarding the appropriateness of a statistical model. Confidence intervals are effective tools for estimating the mean of a population. Confidence intervals are effective tools for estimating the proportion of a population. Tests of Significance can be used to make decisions regarding the appropriates of a statistical model. Normally distributed data lends itself to special situations when defining statistical models. The appropriate communication and interpretation of statistics is essential to avoiding statistical abuse and/or misunderstanding. Students will understand that statistics can be used to make valuable, reliable inferences from empirical information. Knowledge and Skills: Estimate Margin of Error Standard Error Confidence Level Confidence Interval Std Dev of the Estimate 1-Prop Z Confidence Interval 2-Prop Z Confidence Interval 1-Sample Z interval 2-Sample Z interval Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis (1- and 2-sided) P-value Interpretation of p Statistically Significant Alpha level Type I error Type II error Power of a Test 1-Prop Z Test 2-Prop Z Test 1-Sample Z Test 2-Sample Z Test 1-Sample T Interval 2-Sample T Interval 1-Sample T Test 2-Sample T Test Chi-Square Test of Independence Chi-Square GOF Test Degrees of Freedom Regression Test for Slope Critical Value Test Statistic Check appropriate Assumptions/Conditions for Confidence Intervals and Tests of Significance Determine Sample Size for desired margin of error