Epistemology and Methods
Foundations: Accumulation of Knowledge,
Paradigms, Theories
2 March 2010
Overview
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Scientific Growth/Accumulation of Knowledge
Paradigms (Geddes)
Varieties in research
The positivist KKV view
The role of theories?
Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper)
• Science proceeds by putting forward empirically
falsifiable conjectures/theories
• These entail observational predictions (“potential
falsifiers”)
• These can be tested by means of observation and
experiment and either falsify or corroborate a theory
(“falsification”)
• Falsifiability demarcates science from non-science
• Scientific theories cannot be verified by experience,
but they can be falsified.
Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper)
• Steps (theory change as revolution in permanence)
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Scientists stumble over some empirical problem
A theory is proposed (conjectured)
Theory is tested by attempted refutations
If theory is refuted, new theory is conjectured
If theory is corroborated, then it is tentatively
accepted
Accumulation of knowledge (Karl Popper)
• The aim of science should be the development of theories with
high verisimilitude (likeness to truth)
False
statement
true statements
B
A
• B is closer to the truth than A and this constitutes progress
Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn)
• Scientists protect the accepted theory, or "paradigm",
from refutation for most of the time
• They attempt to fit contrary phenomena into the
framework of the paradigm.
• Only when refutations become overwhelming, does
crisis set in
• A new paradigm is sought for and found
• A revolution occurs, and scientists return to doing
"normal science", to the task of reconciling
recalcitrant phenomena with the new paradigm.
Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn)
• Move from pre-science to science (adoption of a paradigm)
• Paradigm: A body of theories, values and methods that are
shared
• Long period of normal science starts / scientists explore, apply
develop and tease out the consequences of the paradigm
• Paradigm is not tested (under constant falsification)
• It offers guidance to attempt to solve problems (puzzlesolving)
• Paradigm expands
Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn)
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Anomaly: persistent problem not be solved by paradigm
Stage of Crises
End of Crises by revolutionary transition (paradigm shift)
Paradigm shift is abrupt, like a social revolution
Incommensurability between competing paradigms (coexistence)
• New paradigm with different conceptual framework
• A new period of normal science emerges…
Accumulation of knowledge (Thomas Kuhn)
Paradigm
Normal Science
Puzzle-Solving
Anomaly
Crisis
Revolution
New Paradigm
Accumulation of knowledge (Imre Lakatos)
• Lakatos tries to combine Popper’s and Kuhn’s images of
science in one model
• Methodology of Scientific Research Programme
• Lakatos sought to reconcile Popper and Kuhn by arguing that
science consists of competing fragments of Kuhnian normal
science, or "research programmes", to be assessed, eventually,
in terms of their relative empirical success and failure.
• Instead of research programmes running in series, one after the
other, as Kuhn thought, research programmes run in parallel,
in competition
• He sees RPs progressing, stagnating and degenerating
Paradigms
• Barbara Geddes: Paradigms and Sand Castles
• Abrupt changes in the Politics of Developing Countries
• Democratization process, freer markets, collapse of the Soviet
Union
• The limited usefulness of old theories in the study of
transitions from authoritarianism and change in economic
policies
• “Like elaborate sand castles paradigms have been built with
great effort and attention to theoretical detail, only to be
washed away by the tide of the next generation of graduate
students, whose research batters at the weak points of existing
paradigms until the theoretical edifice crumbles and
disappears”
Paradigms
• Messages:
• Inattention to basic issues of research design!
• Inability to build, develop and extend old theories (we
abandon theories (too) quickly)
• Uncritical acceptance of theories without systematic empirical
tests
• Example: the rise and fall of modernization and dependency
theory
• “The claim is not that theories/paradigms have been
overturned in some unusual way (…), but rather that evidence
was available that should have called them into question at the
time of their creation”
Varieties in research
• Epistemology: ideas about how to develop and model
knowledge of how the world works
• Epistemology is a term derived from Greek, meaning
the science of knowledge. The problems here concern
not only knowledge and its analysis, but also related
notions such as belief, justification, evidence and
confirmation
Varieties in research
• Hard science vs. social sciences
• Experiments vs. observation
• General laws in social sciences are less certain and
object to change…(different life-cycle)
• Results of research can change the behavior being
studied making the theory less valid
(George&Bennett)
• Theories that can explain (processes and outcomes),
but more difficult to predict….
Varieties in research
• The positivist vs. post-positivist tradition (the two
poles)
• Positivist epistemology aim to replicate the methods
of the natural sciences by analysing the impact of
material forces..
• Post-positivist epistemology rejects the idea that the
social world can be studied in an objective and valuefree way. It rejects the central ideas of neorealism/liberalism, such as rational choice theory, on
the grounds that the scientific method cannot be
applied to the social world and that a 'science' (of IR)
is impossible.
Varieties in research
• The competition/war on methods: quantitative vs.
qualitative approaches
• Special session (18 May 2010)
The positivist KKV view
• Focus is on empirical research sidestepping
controversies about the role of postmodernism, the
nature and existence of truth, relativism, and related
subjects.
• We assume that it is possible to have some knowledge
of the external world but that such knowledge is
always uncertain.
The positivist KKV view
• The importance of research design:
– Rules are relevant to all research where the goal is
to learn facts about the real world
– Social science seeks to arrive at valid inferences by
systematic use of well-established procedures of
inquiry
– Quantitative and qualitative research strategies can
be reconciled
KKV continues
• Defining social research:
– The goal is inference (descriptive or explanatory
inferences based on empirical information)
– Procedures are public (make methods and logics
explicit)
– Conclusions are uncertain
– The content is the method
What are theories?
• Grand theories/Schools of thought (in international
relations: neorealism, neoliberalism, constructivism)
• Mid-range theories (e.g. democratic peace,
dependency theory)
• Research programmes (e.g. rational design of IOs,
sozialization of IOs)
What are theories?
• Theories are general statements that describe and
explain the causes or effects of classes of phenomena.
They are composed of causal laws or hypotheses,
explanations, and antecedent conditions (van Evera
1997:7)
What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997)
• has large explanatory power
– Importance (Large variance in DV caused by small
variance in IV)
– Explanatory range (Number of classes of
phenomena, e.g. Olson’s logic of collective action)
– Applicability (how common is the cause)
• is parsimonious (few variables to explain effects)
• is “satisfying” (“I didn’t get enough votes”)
What is a good theory? (Van Evera 1997)
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is clearly framed (importance of explanation)
is falsifiable
explains important phenomena
has prescriptive richness
– “Capitalism causes war”
– “Teaching chauvinist history in school causes war”