Earthquake Early Warning
Where we are and where we are going
Doug Given
USGS Earthquake Early
Warning Coordinator
CISN Steering Committee
March 25, 2013
Principal Collaborators
• Caltech
Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T.
• UC Berkeley
Allen, R., Hellweg, P.
• Swiss Seismological Service, ETH
Clinton, J., Cua, G.
• U. of Washington
Vidale, J., Bodin, P.
• SCEC
Jordan, T., Maechling, P.
• Moore Foundation
Atherton, C.
• USGS
Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D.
CISN Post-seismic Earthquake Products
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ShakeMap
CISN Display
ShakeCast
Pager
ENS
And more…
Anza M4.7 .avi
Current CISN EEW Status
Receiving alerts today:
• >50 scientists
Status today:
Demonstration system
Next three years:
Production Prototype
• CalEMA
• Google.org
• BART
• LA Metro
• Metrolink
• San Francisco DEM
Thanks to partnerships…
• Amgen
• So Cal Edison
• UC Berkeley OEP
• L.A. City
• L.A. County
• Riverside Co.
• San Bernardino Co.
• more…
Potential Uses of
Early Warning?
– Human Response
• Drop, cover, and hold on
• Evacuate hazardous areas
• Brace for shaking
(surgeons, dentists, etc.)
– Automated Response
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Slow or stop trains, traffic
Close valves, gates
Stop elevators
Open firehouse doors
Slow or stop machinery
?
Main Components of EEW System
• Dense sensors (seismic & GPS)
• Reliable field telemetry
• Fast processing to determine:
• Location, magnitude
• Fault extent & slip
• Fast mass notification
• End user interaction & education
Sensors
Field telemetry
Processing
Notifications
Users
Pacific Northwest
West Coast
Centers
• EEW is a natural
extension of ANSS &
CISN core capabilities
• Leverage…
Northern California
• Technical
• Management
Southern California
• Community
engagement
CISN will be transformed by EEW
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More stations, upgraded stations
More robust telemetry
Tighter integration with (inclusion of) GPS
Need for more rigorous testing and
monitoring for EEW than current products
More staff at Tier 1 centers
More interaction with users
More partnerships
Funding?
CISN Funding (2011)
Not including EEW
Total ~$10.4M (USGS $8.9M, CalEMA $1.5M)
Does not include CSMIP
Investments in EEW
“The USGS has directly funded research and development toward
earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with the goal of creating an
operational warning capability in the highest-risk regions of the United
States.” – Director, USGS
Moore Foundation
USGS
(2012-2015)
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External grants R & D for EEW
 Phase I & II (2006-2012)
 Phase III (2012-2015) 1st yr 
ARRA California (2009-2011)
 Network equipment upgrades
MultiHazards Project (2008-2012)
 Caltech
$1,996,888
$2,093,851
$ 450,000
 UC Berkeley
$2,040,889
$4,426,110
 Univ. of Washington
$1,848,351
 USGS
$ 594,406
$1,618,150
 San Andreas sensors, digital upgrades,
production computers, personnel
TOTAL
$8,588,111
TOTAL
$6,480,534
Technical Progress on EEW
• Dense sensors
• Installing/upgrading sensors
• Reliable telemetry
• Redesigning telemetry
• Fast processing for:
• R & D continues
• Location, magnitude
• Improving algorithms
• Fault extent & slip
• Fin-Der, GPS techniques
• Fast mass notification
• IPAWS-WEA, phone app
• End user education
• Beta user outreach, UD v2.4,
social science, web sites
Sensors
Field telemetry
Processing
Notifications
Users
ShakeOut finite fault - .avi
Implementation Summary
(with current modest funding levels)
• Upgrade network infrastructure as opportunities arise
• Continue algorithm development and implementation
– Gordon & Betty Moore funding  R&D
– USGS EEW funding (Phase III)  implementation
• Create production thread - “operationalize” current
demonstration thread
– Develop West Coast architecture for redundant, fail-safe operation
– Develop operational performance metrics and monitoring
• Continue user interaction, create new partnerships
• Complete implementation plan, cost benefit analysis,
telemetry plan, etc.
Alert
Shake
Full West Coast Implementation
(estimate)
California
Pacific
Northwest
West Coast
(CA+PNW)
$23,165,072
$23M
$15,146,920
$15M
$38,311,992
$38M
Annual Operation and
$12M
$11,888,128
Maintenance
and Maintenance
$5M
$4,607,909
$17M
$16,496,037
One-Time
Construction costs
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Personnel to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing up to robust levels
Personnel at each center for EEW operation and user outreach
Personnel for EEW central implementation and testing
Support for continued algorithm & software development
700 new or upgrades seismic stations & 300 GPS stations
Significant field telemetry upgrades
California SB 135 on EEW
Other Recent EEW Developments
• BART “live” since Aug. 2012
• Production system is being built
• UD v2.4 released, alpha phone app
• ShakeAlert being installed at UW
• Web sites created: shakealert.org & at partner sites
• 1st draft of implementation plan with budget completed
• Los Angeles area UASI funding for new & upgraded station
• Partners developing strategy for congressional support
Summary
• USGS & CISN partners are committed to building
and operating EEW for highest risk areas of CA
• ShakeAlert has been sending test EEW notifications
since January 2012
• Work has begun on the “production” system
• Significant progress is being made in all parts of the
system despite limited resources
• Partners are coordinating to build support at federal
and state levels
Alert
Shake
Thank You