North American Regional Dynamics
st
in a 21 Century of Climate Change
Mark Partridge
Swank Professor in Rural-Urban Policy
Ohio State University
Presented at
Plenary Session
Regional Studies Association Annual International Conference
Pécs, Hungary
25 May, 2010
___________
www.aede.osu.edu/programs/Swank/
1
Outline:
1. American migration is not a simple story of
moving to big cities.
2. They move to nice places—good weather,
pleasant landscape, oceans….
–
QOL is a key theme—matters for climate change
3. Globalization magnifies competitive advantage.
4. My capstone focus. Climate change will alter
the ‘landscape’ & affect migration patterns.
Ask: are we on the cusp of profound change?
This is a key role for Regional Studies.
2
Why Study Migration?
•
In North America, net migration is the
key reason for growth differentials.
Migration is regional success? People
vote with their feet to maximize utility?
•
–
Because high income may be a regional
compensating differential, it is not the
correct metric of regional well being.
•
E.g., Fort McMurray in the Oil Sands of Canada
3
Amenities—Conceptual Issues
•
“Household” amenities shift labor supply and/or
household preferences.
• Natural amenities: climate, water, landscape,
mountains, clean environment. My focus today.
•
•
Philip Graves in the 1970s and 1980s with major
recent contributions by Jordan Rappaport and others.
Urban amenities such as cultural venues,
recreation, urban milieu. (Glaeser et al., 2001;
Adamson et al., 2004; Florida, 2004)
4
Conceptual Issues—cont.
•
Amenities are normal goods→ rising incomes
over time increase the demand for amenities.
Technological change leads to movement to warm
locations such as air conditioning
Amenities lead to faster population growth & are
capitalized into higher housing costs and lower wages
as people crowd into high-amenity areas
•
•
•
Eventually, high prices and low wages would shut off amenity
migration. Perhaps after 2010…..
•
Michael Storper and Allen J. Scott dispute the notion
of Amenity led growth though they provide no
empirical evidence (2009, J. of Economic
Geography)
5
What about cities
• Urban agglomeration is clearly a strong force.
Either for the largest cities or having access to
them—especially Europe and Asia.
– London, Blue Banana, etc.
6
Evidence
• Massive empirical literature starting with Philip
Graves in the 1970s.
• Some key studies are:
• Partridge and Rickman (2003) J. of Urban
Economics;
• Jordan Rappaport (2007) Regional Science
and Urban Economics,
• Mario Polese (2009). The Wealth and Poverty
of Regions: Why Cities Matter. University of
7
Chicago Press.
1969-2007 Growth By Metro Area Size in 1969 (%)
8
Large MSA is > 3 million population in 1969. There are 8 MSAs in this category: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston, San
Francisco and Washington DC. The Large-Medium MSA have a 1969 population of 1 million - 3 million ( 27 MSAs). The Small-Medium Metro Areas are
250,000 - 1 million 1969 population ( 85 MSAs). Small MSAs have a 1969 population of 50,000 - 250,00 (230 MSAs).
1990-2007 Growth By Metro Area Size in 1969 (%)
9
Large MSA is > 3 million population in 1969. There are 8 MSAs in this category: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston, San
Francisco and Washington DC. The Large-Medium MSA have a 1969 population of 1 million - 3 million ( 27 MSAs). The Small-Medium Metro Areas are
250,000 - 1 million 1969 population ( 85 MSAs). Small MSAs have a 1969 population of 50,000 - 250,00 (230 MSAs).
1969-2007 Growth For Representative Metro Type
(%)
The Traditional Core includes New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago. The Rustbelt includes Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and St Louis. Sunbelt 10
includes Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando and Las Vegas. Mountain/Landscape includes Seattle, Denver, Portland, and Salt Lake.
1990-2007 Growth For Representative Metro Type
(%)
The Traditional Core includes New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago. The Rustbelt includes Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and St Louis. Sunbelt
includes Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando and Las Vegas. Mountain/Landscape includes Seattle, Denver, Portland, and Salt Lake.
11
What did we learn?
• Growth shifted from the core to the
hinterlands even with conditions that favored
concentration such as falling transportation
costs.
• Agglomeration is not the primary driver of
growth. Growth is happening in cities located
in nice places, not biggest cities.
• What about amenity growth?
12
Population Growth from 1960 to 2008
Mean=89.1
Median=43.4
Population Growth from 1960 to 2008
(%)
133.9 - 811.5
95.6 - 129.5
52.9 - 88.0
36.8 - 43.4
26.2 - 35.8
-22.5 - 22.3
0
Map Created on November 16, 2009
80
160
320
480
640
Miles
2000-2007 Population Growth
14
1990/91-2006 North American Population Growth
15
What about Canada?
• Cities matter more in Canada
– When there are few cities, each city takes on
added importance. [between Windsor-Montreal
• When climate varies less, there is less
migration for weather.
• Ergo—Canadian regional growth processes
have a more European flavor though with a
little ‘natural resource’ taste.
• Why Regional Studies is so interesting.
16
Globalization
• Globalization makes our work even more
important. Small gaps in competitiveness or
QOL now shift resources around the world.
– Not just Cleveland competing with Detroit, but
Cleveland competes with the world. Winners
“steal” from the rest of the world. Laggards lose
to everywhere in the world.
– Everything is magnified in a global economy.
– Higher incomes and the search for QOL creates
a competition for footloose high-skilled workers.
17
Climate Change and Regional Studies
• Most important issue facing human kind.
• I believe this is where Regional Studies
can play an important role that has been
so far is understudied and under
appreciated by policymakers.
– Barca report
– Every state and city in the U.S. seems to want
to be the green capital of the economic
development
18
Climate Change in the U.S.
• Climate change is forecasted to greatly raise
temperatures, sea levels, pests, and
increase the size and frequencies of storms
and hurricanes.
• Arid areas in the Southwest and elsewhere
could experience long droughts, creating
water shortages.
19
Sea-Level Rise in the Gulf Coast
20
What happens to our weather?
Illinois
becomes
the Sunbelt.
21
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• Climate change will mean that infrastructure
will have to be realigned or strengthened,
raising local taxes in affected areas.
• New infrastructure will be required for water
projects with higher water prices.
• Climate change will make the Sunbelt less
hospitable and make the Frostbelt more
desirable.
22
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• Americans will move to high QOL.
Movements of people could be into the tens
of millions.
• Together, coastal areas (especially on the
East Coast and Gulf of Mexico) and the
Sunbelt should experience out-migration.
23
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• Very little thought into the consequences of
this migration and then how ‘we’ should be
involved.
• What I do NOT mean about “regions and
climate change”:
– Most “climate change” regional research has
been very local. E.g., what is the local economic
impact of a “green energy” cluster?
24
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• What I do not mean: Plop money here, there,
everywhere
• Combining environmental policy with job creation
programs in order to ‘tick’ 2 boxes. What does US do:
– Alternative energy projects that reduce carbon at a higher
cost than energy efficiency
– Creates few jobs because alternative energy is capital
intensive
– Need heavy subsidies: borrow funds from China to fund
green jobs.
– Little job growth and limited positive effects on the
environment, while draining the public treasury.
25
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• What I Do mean:
• Climate change is too important to be used as
an excuse for ill-conceived jobs programs.
• Massive regional realignment—the
interactions of regions
– On the positive side, such migration will lower the
adaptation costs of climate change.
– It will revitalize parts of the Rustbelt, Northern
Great Plains and Northeast—areas that have
faced relative decline for decades.
26
What will Climate Change do to
Growth and Migration?
• On the negative side, it will lead to massive
adjustment costs in adversely affected areas.
– Vicious cycle: higher taxes to support new
infrastructure will lead to out-migration, creating
the need to raise taxes even further, starting the
process over again.
• The effects of climate change will soon start
to be capitalized into property values,
beginning the adjustment well before the main
negative effects are felt.
27
What is the role of Regional Studies?
• Scientists have driven the climate change
research and policy agenda.
– Worry about sea/lake levels, crop production,
forest cover, policies to mitigate climate
changes.
– Very naïve assumptions about how people
may respond, if at all.
– “People” are almost an afterthought.
28
What is the role of Regional Studies?
• The massive movements of people in response to
climate change may have much larger effects than
the other policies aimed at adaptation and
mitigation such as cap and trade.
• Prediction & Planning is essential.
• Land-use is important. Are we going to replace
Sunbelt sprawl with Rustbelt sprawl?
• Prime farmland would have a higher premium—
further calling for planning for better land-use.
• Needs for new infrastructure and water use?
29
What is the role of Regional Studies?
• Regional Studies is ceding too much
ground to scientists who do not
understand the role of how people
respond to incentives.
• Regional studies is ceding too much
ground to (say) environmental economists
who do not take into account migration.
30
Summary
• Americans have moved en masse to nice
places not necessarily big cities.
• Globalization makes regional competition
even more acute with the effects of
winning or losing even more magnified.
• Climate change will alter the American
landscape with the potential to reshape
regional patterns.
• Regional Studies is needed to help with
these paramount issues.
31
Thank you
Presentation will be posted at The Ohio State
University, AED Economics, Swank Program
website:
http://aede.osu.edu/programs/Swank/
(under presentations)
32
1950-2000 Population Growth
33
Population Growth from 1950-2000
Mean=116.3
Median=61.2
Population Growth from 1950 to 2000
(%)
167.0 - 1148.3
113.3 - 147.8
64.9 - 98.2
42.9 - 61.2
32.4 - 42.6
-28.7 - 30.6
0
Map Created on November 16, 2009
80
160
320
480
640
Miles
2000-2007 Population Growth in NC U.S.
35