Seminar on Natural Resource Mediation
Dr Jose Pascal da Rocha
Day 1 – Session on conflict analysis
Handout
INTRODUCTION
Conflict analysis is the systematic study of the profile, causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict. It helps to
gain a better understanding of the context in which conflict transformers work and supports to refine
their role in that context. Conflict analysis can be carried out at various levels - local, regional, national and seeks to establish the linkages between these levels. Identifying the appropriate focus for the
conflict analysis is crucial: the issues and dynamics at the national level may be different from those at
the grassroots. But while linking the level of conflict analysis - community, district, region or national with the level of intervention, it is also important to establish systematic linkages with other interrelated
levels of conflict dynamics. All of these different levels impact on each other.
Conflict transformation needs:
• understanding of the context
• understanding the interaction between the intervention and the context
• acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid not wanted impacts and
maximise positive impacts.
Conflict analysis is thus a central component of conflict transformation, as it provides the foundation
to of an understanding of the interaction between the intervention and the context. This applies to all
forms of intervention.
In other words, conflict analysis will help:
• to define new interventions
• to monitor the interaction between the context and the intervention
• to measure the interaction of the interventions and the conflict dynamics in which they are situated.
Elements of conflict analysis
This section introduces the key elements of conflict analysis as they emerge from the various conflict
analysis tools documented below. To be aware of the following helps: Conflict dynamics are simply too
complex and volatile for any single conflict analysis process to do them justice. Nevertheless, the
findings can be the basis of action, even though some aspects may remain unclear. When question
marks occur this is usually an indicator for crucial points.
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The common key features of conflict analysis are the conflict profile, actors, causes and dynamics. A
conflict profile provides a brief characterisation of the context within which the intervention will be
situated:
 What is the political, economic, and socio-cultural context? - Physical geography, population
make-up, recent history, political and economic structure, social composition, environment,
geo-strategic position.
 What are emergent political, economic, ecological, and social issues? - Elections, reform
processes,decentralisation, new infrastructure, disruption of social networks, mistrust, return
ofrefugees and internally displaced persons –IDPs -, military and civilian deaths, presence
ofarmed forces, mined areas.
 What specific conflict prone/affected areas can be situated within this context? - Areas of
influenceof specific actors, frontlines around the location of natural resources, important
infrastructureand lines of communication, pockets of socially marginalised or excluded
populations.
 Is there a history of conflict? - Critical events, mediation efforts, external intervention.
In order to understand a given context it is fundamental to identify potential and existing conflict
causes, as well as possible factors contributing to constructiveness. Conflict causes can be defined as
those factors which contribute to people’s grievances; and can be further described as:
• structural causes - pervasive factors that have become built into the policies, structures and
fabric of a society and may create the pre-conditions for violent conflict
• proximate causes - factors contributing to a climate conducive to violent conflict or its further
escalation, sometimes apparently symptomatic of a deeper problem
• triggers - single key acts, events, or their anticipation that will set off or escalate violent conflict.
Protracted conflicts also tend to generate new causes - weapons circulation, war economy, culture of
violence-, which help to prolong them further.
Causes
As the main causes and factors contributing to conflict and to peace are identified, it is important to
acknowledge that conflicts are multi -dimensional and multi-causal phenomena, that there is no single
cause of conflict. It is also essential to establish linkages and synergies between causes and factors, in
order to identify potential areas for intervention and further prioritize them.
Key questions regarding this are:
 What are structural causes of conflict? - Illegitimate government, lack of political participation,
lack of equal economic and social opportunities, inequitable access to natural resources, poor
governance.
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What issues can be considered as proximate causes of conflict? - Uncontrolled security
sector,light weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, destabilising role of neighbouring
countries,role of diasporas.
What triggers can contribute to the outbreak / further escalation of conflict? - Elections,
arrest/assassination of key leader or political figure, drought, sudden collapse of local
currency,military coup, rapid change in unemployment, flood, increased price/scarcity of basic
commodities,capital flight.
What new factors contribute to prolonging conflict dynamics? - Radicalisation of conflict
parties,establishment of paramilitaries, development of a war economy, increased human
rightsviolations, weapons availability, development of a culture of fear.
What factors can contribute to peace? - Communication channels between opposing
parties,demobilisation process, reform programmes, civil society commitment to peace, antidiscriminationpolicies.
Actors
People are central when thinking about conflict analysis. Actors are individuals, groups and institutions
contributing to conflict or being affected by it in a positive or negative manner, as well as those engaged
in dealing with conflict. Actors differ as to their goals and interests, their positions, capacities to realise
their interests, and relationships with other actors.
• Interests: the underlying motivations of the actors (concerns, goals, hopes and fears).
• Goals: the strategies that actors use to pursue their interests.
• Positions: the solution presented by actors on key and emerging issues in a given context, irrespective
of the interests and goals of others.
• Capacities: the actors’ potential to affect the context, positively or negatively. Potential can be defined
in terms of resources, access, social networks and constituencies, other support and alliances, etc.
• Relationships: the interactions between actors at various levels, and their perception of these
interactions.
Some approaches distinguish actors according to the level at which they are active (grassroots, middle
level, top level). In particular, conflict transformation theory attaches great importance to middle level
leaders, as they may assume a catalytic role through their linkages both to the top and the grassroots. In
any case, it is important to consider the relationships between actors/ groups at various levels and how
they affect the conflict dynamics.
Particular attention should be paid to profiteers, i.e. specific groups with an interest in the maintenance
of the negative status quo. If not adequately addressed within the framework of strategies, they may
become an obstacle to constructive initiatives. Similarly, it is important to identify existing capacities for
peace, in order to further define entry points to address causes of violent conflict. Capacities for peace
typically refer to institutions, organisations, mechanisms and Course of actions in a society for dealing
with conflict and differencesof interest. In particular, such actors need to be assessed in relation to their
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capacity for conflict management, their legitimacy, the likelihood of their engagement, and the possible
roles they can adopt.
Key questions regarding this are:
 Who are the main actors? - National government, security sector (military, police), local
(military)leaders and armed groups, private sector/business (local, national, trans-national),
donoragencies and foreign embassies, multinational organisations , regional organisations,
religiousor political networks (local, national, global), independent mediators, civil society (local,
national,international), peace groups, trade unions, political parties, neighbouring states,
traditionalauthorities, refugees/IDPs, all children, women and men living in a given context.
 What are their main interests, goals, positions, capacities, and relationships? - Religious
values,political ideologies, need for land, interest in political participation, economic
resources,constituencies, access to information, political ties, global networks.
 What capacities for peace can be identified? - Civil society, informal approaches to conflict
resolution,traditional authorities, political institutions (head of state, parliament), judiciary,
regional(i.g. African Union, IGAD, ASEAN) and multilateral bodies (International Court of Justice).
 What actors can be identified as spoilers? Why? - Groups benefiting from war economy
(combatants,arms/drug dealers, smugglers.
Dynamics
Scenarios basically provide an assessment of what may happen next in a given context according to a
specific timeframe, building on the analysis of conflict profile, causes and actors. It is good practice to
prepare three scenarios:
• best case scenario - describing the optimal outcome of the current context
• middle case or status quo scenario - describing the continued evolution of current trends
• worst case scenario –describing the worst possible outcome
If history is the key to understanding conflict dynamics, it may be relevant to use the timeline to identify
its main phases. Try to explain key events and assess their consequences. Temporal patterns may be
important in understanding the conflict dynamics. Undertaking this exercise with different actors and
groups can bring out contrasting perspectives.
Key questions for an analyses of conflict dynamics:
 What are current conflict trends?- Escalation or de-escalation, changes in important framework
conditions.
 What are windows of opportunity? - Are there positive developments? What factors support
them? How can they be strengthened?
 What scenarios can be developed from the analysis of the conflict profile, causes and actors?Best case, middle case and worst case scenarios.
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Who conducts the analysis?
Conflict analysis can be undertaken for various purposes. The purpose will determine the specific
process and will help to determine who should conduct the analysis. For example, if the purpose is to
promote a participatory and transformative process within a community, the community should play a
vital role. If the purpose is to develop a strategy for engagement in a given context, it may be that an
internal team from within the organization developing the strategy should lead the process. Some
elements of the analysis may be highly sensitive, and thus may need to be confidential.
In any case, it is important to get the right mix of skills and backgrounds, which can be summarized as
follows:
• good conflict analysis skills
• good knowledge of the context and related history
• sensitivity to the local context
• local language skills
• sufficient status/credibility to see through recommendations
• representation of different perspectives within the context under consideration
• moderation skills, team work, possibly counselling
• facilitation skills.
The quality and relevance of the analysis mainly depends on the people involved. These include the
person or team conducting the analysis, on the one hand, and other conflict actors, on the other.
Conflict analysis consists of eliciting the views of the different groups and placing them into a larger
analytical framework.
Every conflict analysis is highly political, and bias is a constant concern. It may be difficult to be
objective, as personal sympathies develop and make it difficult to maintain an unbiased approach. It
may therefore be more productive to spell out one’s own position and preconceptions and be clear
about the conditions and restrictions under which the conflict analysis takes place. Collecting
information for conflict analysis It is important to gather information from as wide a range of sources as
possible and to listen to many different actors, in order to broaden the understanding of the context
and to include a wide range of perspective.
Various techniques can be used to gather these perspectives, from surveys and interviews to group
discussion and stakeholder consultations. In contexts where groups cannot openly and directly discuss
conflict, it may be useful to consider having separate meetings. Meetings and interviews must be
conducted in a language in which participants can confidently express their views.
Selecting the appropriate framework for conflict analysis
When planning to use a specific framework to support conflict analysis, it is worth considering its
purpose, strengths and weaknesses. The main value of tools are lying in guiding the systematic search
for information and providing a framework for analysing it, thus prompting critical questions and
offering new perspectives.
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Conflict mapping – Relationships of actors
Mapping is a technique used to represent a conflict graphically, placing the parties in relation, both to
the problem and to each other. When people with different viewpoints map their situation together,
they learn about each other’s experiences and perceptions.
What it is: A visual technique for showing the relationships between parties in conflict.
Purpose:
To understand the situation better
To see more clearly the relationships between parties
To clarify where power lies
To check the balance of one’s own activity or contacts
To see where allies or potential allies are
To identify openings for intervention or action
To evaluate what has been done already
When to use it:
Early in a process, along with other analytical tools
Later, to identify possible entry points for action or to help process of strategy building
Variations:
Geographical maps showing the areas and parties involved
Mapping of issues
Mapping of power alignments
As a human sculpture to bring out feelings and relationships
How to conduct:
Decide what you want to map, when and from what point of view. Choose a particular moment in
a specific situation. (It is often useful to do several maps of the same situation from a variety of
viewpoints.)
Mapping needs/interest and fears
To focus on needs, interest and fears can help to free those in conflict from fixed positions in relation to
it and to focus instead on the interests, which will need to be addressed in any future agreement. In
addition, listing needs , interests and fears often reveals the multiplicity of those interests and the need
for several, or many, ingredients to be included in that agreement.
What it is: A way of analysing what different parties to a conflict are saying.
Purpose:
To move beyond the public position of each party and understand each party’s interests and needs.
To find common ground between groups that can become the basis for further discussions.
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When to use it:
As part of analysis to understand the dynamics of a conflict situation. In preparation for facilitation
dialogue between groups in a conflict. As part of a mediation or negotiation process.
How to conduct:
• Positions are formal, official and very often public. They are what the person says, demands.
They contain an understanding of the situation, the outcome of the conflict and the role the conflicting
party plays in it. Very often they contain a value as a justification or legitimization.
• Values are basic qualities, which are held to be very important and may be used to justify positions.
They can be cultural norms, laws or ethical principles.
• Issues are what the parties say that the conflict is about. They are specific and concrete. Very often
factual problems are less important than relationship problems, though conflicts are usually framed in
factual terms.
• Interests are what conflicting parties really want, what are the motivations underlying their position.
They may be expressed, but often they are also concealed. Very often there are several interests
touched for each actor involved in a conflict. As interests are not essential human needs, they are
negotiable and their relative importance may change with time.
• Needs are the fundamental, essential requirements for human survival. They relate to security,
identity, community and vitality of human life. They are not negotiable, but they may be satisfied in
different ways. They are usually unstated or disguised.
The ABC Triangle
The situation-attitude-behavior model provides yet another way to frame party issues. Attitude, which is
predominately shaped by culture, affects behavior, and that in turn affects a situation. In a conflict
situation, issues arise between parties, and their behaviors are the means for settling those issues and
achieving their goals. This model serves as a reminder that party issues and behaviors are ultimately
determined by party attitudes. This then allows issues to be reframed in various contexts of culture,
such as ethnicity, gender, or socio-economic class, and contributes to an appropriate analysis of the
conflict situation. Oftentimes, party objectives can be classified as diametric opposites. Two simple
formats exist for this classification. The first format is simply win-win or win-lose. Parties that seek to
gain at the expense of others are engaged in a win lose conflict; whereas parties that are seeking
collaboration are pursuing a win-win outcome.
The second format consists of status-quo maintaining and status-quo changing. A party whose objective
is to wrest political control from another party is engaged in status-quo changing. The party that wishes
to uphold political control is demonstrating status-quo maintaining. Determining party issues and
objectives oftentimes requires “reading between the lines.” When parties voice their issues and goals,
they may not necessarily be completely forthright. When this occurs, the parties are encoding their
words with implicit messages. In order to determine these messages and understand exactly what the
parties are implying, an intervener must essentially decode the parties’ messages. In order to accurately
decode these messages, an intervener must have an in depth understanding of the conflict’s context as
well as extensive knowledge of the parties. Only an intervener that is intensely familiar with a conflict
and its parties is able to accurately decode these messages and reframe them as issues and goals.
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As parties’ issues are identified, additional information can be gathered by locating the issues in one or
more of the conflict levels. As mentioned in the section Conflict Context, the four levels are individual,
societal, international, and global/ecological. This process of level identification assists in determining
the complexity of the issue, and hence informing the intervention design.
What is it: An analysis of factors to attitude, behaviour and context for each of the parties.
Purpose:
To identify these three sets of factors for each of the major parties.
To analyse how these influence each other.
To relate these to the needs and fears of each party
To identify a starting point for intervention in the situation.
When to use it:
Early in the process to gain a greater insight into what motivates the different parties.
Later to identify what factors might be addressed by an intervention.
To reveal how a change in one aspect might affect another
Variations:
After listing issues of each of the three components, indicate a key need or fear of that party in
the middle of the triangle.
End
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