Subjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth Dan Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER World Bank Workshop, NYU—October 8, 2010. Subjective Well-being “Subjective well-being refers to all of the various types of evaluations, both positive and negative, that people make of their lives. It includes reflective cognitive evaluations, such as life satisfaction and work satisfaction, interest and engagement, and affective reactions to life events, such as joy and sadness.” (Diener, 2005) Typical questions: Happiness “Taking all things together, would you say you are: very happy; quite happy; not very happy; not at all happy.” Life satisfaction “All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?” [1=Dissatisfied – 10=Satisfied] Satisfaction ladder: “Here is a ladder representing the ‘ladder of life’. Let's suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom, the worse possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time? [0-10 steps].” Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 3 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects 1990s view “Satiation” New view: Stevenson-Wolfers findings results, along with mounting Big“My effects for income Strong effects: within≈0.35 <$15k from other time β evidence series - But not for the rich studies of subjective well-being, do on GDP<$15k: Strong effects balance undermine the view that a Strong effects βbetween=0.35 focus onNoeconomic growth is in the GDP>$15k: effects best interests of society.” Strong effects No effects Between country: Rich v. poor countries Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero National time series: Country when rich v. poor No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Largely unexamined Largely unexamined Strong effects βpanel=0.35 Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” There’s no paradox (and never was) De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Implications Policy conclusions – Richard Easterlin (2005) (Available data are for rich countries) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness βtime series=0.35 4 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” 1990s view “Satiation” Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects Big effects for income <$15k - But not for the rich Between country: Rich v. poor countries Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero GDP<$15k: Strong effects GDP>$15k: No effects National time series: Country when rich v. poor No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) No effects (Available data are for rich countries) International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Largely unexamined Largely unexamined Strong effects βpanel=0.35 Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” There’s no paradox (and never was) De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Implications Policy conclusions New view: Stevenson-Wolfers findings effects: “once Strong a country has over within β ≈0.35 $15,000 per head, its level of happiness Strong effects appears to be βbetween =0.35 independent of its income” Strong effects series=0.35 – Richard (2003) βtimeLayard Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 5 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” 1990s view “Satiation” New view: Stevenson-Wolfers Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects Big effects for income <$15k - But not for the rich Strong effects: βwithin≈0.35 Between country: Rich v. poor countries Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero GDP<$15k: Strong effects GDP>$15k: No effects Strong effects βbetween≈0.35 National time series: Country when rich v. poor No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) No effects (Available data are for rich countries) Strong effects βtime series≈0.35 International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Largely unexamined Largely unexamined Strong effects βpanel≈0.35 Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” There’s no paradox (and never was) De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Implications Policy conclusions Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 6 Why revisit the stylized facts? 1. 2. Theoretical implications: Reference-dependent preferences Yielding important policy implications (and big policy claims) What explains our new findings? 1. 2. 3. New data: Longer time series (1946-2010); More countries (n=140) Statistical inference: Absence of evidence v. evidence of absence What are “big” versus small effects? Focus on the magnitudes What we won’t do Assess causality: Happiness = β log(Income) Revisit what subjective well-being data “mean” Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 7 Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country cross-sectional comparisons Between countries: In past and current data Multiple datasets For both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation National Time Series and International Panels USA All countries Japan Europe World Values Survey USA Newly-available measures of subjective well-being Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 8 Within-Country Comparisons: USA “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days?” Family income Very happy Pretty happy Not too happy <$12,500 (bottom 10%) 21% 53% 26% $12,500-$49,999 25% 61% 13% $50,000-$149,999 40% 54% 6% $150,000 (top 10%) 53% 45% 2% Source: U.S. General Social Survey, 2006 “When we plot average happiness versus income for clusters of people in a given country at a given time, we see that rich people are in fact much happier than poor people. It’s actually an astonishingly large difference. There’s no one single change you can imagine that would make your life improve on the happiness scale as much as to move from the bottom 5 percent on the income scale to the top 5 percent.” - Robert Frank (2005) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 9 Satisfaction and Log(Family Income) Well-Being 8 Lowessand fits forLog(Income) the 25 Largest Countries; Gallup World Poll USA βwithin 7 6 5 4 3 ≈ 0.35 Normalized satisfaction ladder score 1 GBR MEX ITAFRA DEU COL BRA IND THA VNMTUR IRN RUS PAK UKR CHN EGY PHL BGDNGA JPN KOR 0 ETH -.5 -1 Figure shows the central 90% of the income distribution for each country. .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 Annual household income ($000s; Log income scale) .5 128 Source: Daniel Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers (2010), “Subjective Well-Being, Income, 10 Sa cks Within-country : Rich are happier than poor Without controls With controls Permanent Income Adjusted 0.422 IV Sample size Gallup World Poll: Ladder question 0.236*** (0.014) 0.232*** (0.014) 0.449 *** (0.027) 171,900 (126 Countries) 116,527 (61 Countries) 32,463 (43 Countries) World Values Survey: Life satisfaction 0.216*** (0.017) 0.227*** (0.037) 0.413 0.26*** (0.035) Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Ladder question 0.281*** (0.027) 0.283*** (0.027) 0.515 0.393*** (0.033) Notes: The table reports the coefficient on the log of household income, obtained from regressing standardized life satisfaction against the log of household income and country fixed effects using the indicated data set. Additional controls include a quartic in age, interacted with sex, plus indicators for age and sex missing. Our permanent income adjustment is to scale up our estimates by 1/0.55; see text for explanation. We instrument for income using full set of country×education fixed effects. We report robust standard errors, clustered at the country level, in parentheses. For further details on the standardization of satisfaction and the exact wording of satisfaction question, see the text. ***, ** and * denote statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 11 Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country comparisons USA All countries βwithin ≈ 0.35 Between countries: In past and current data Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation “the happiness differences between rich and poor countries that one might expect on the basis of the within country differences by economic status are not borne out by the international data.” – Easterlin, (1974) National Time Series and International Panels Japan Europe World Values Survey USA Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 12 Early Cross-National Studies of Well-Being and GDP Gallup, 1946 (Happiness) 1.5 Tension Study, 1948 (Satisfaction) Gallup, 1949 (Happiness) 1.0 NOR AUS USA GBR NLD 0.5 GBR USA USA CAN 0.0 AUS NLD GBR USA CAN NOR MEX ITA DEU -0.5 FRA FRA FRA -1.0 y = -9.96+1.14*ln(x) [se=0.31] Correlation=0.93 -1.5 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 1.5 Patterns of Human Concerns, 1960 (Satisfaction ladder) y = -4.11+0.49*ln(x) [se=0.23] Correlation=0.63 .5 1 2 4 8 16 World Survey III, 1965 (happiness) 32 y = -9.46+1.08*ln(x) [se=0.60] Correlation=0.63 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 1.0 USA CUB 0.5 GBRUSA EGY 0.0 ISRDEU JPN YUG PAN BRA POL NGA FRG MYS THA PHL FRA IND -0.5 βbetween ≈ 0.35 ITA -1.0 y = -2.45+0.31*ln(x) [se=0.17] DOM Correlation=0.49 -1.5 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 y = -1.60+0.17*ln(x) [se=0.15] Correlation=0.41 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 Real GDP per&capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) Sacks, Stevenson Wolfers, Income and Happiness 13 βbetween ≈ 0.35 World Values Survey 1981-84 wave 9 1.0 DNK ISL SWE MLTIRL AUS NOR CAN NLD USA GBR BEL DEU HUN FRA ITA ESPJPN 8 7 1989-93 wave 9 CHE MLT DNK ISL CAN IRL SWE AUT NLD USA0.5 NOR FIN BEL GBR BRA ITA ESP PRT DEU KOR SVKCZE FRA POL JPN 0.0 TUR SVN HUN LTU ROM EST LVA BLR RUS -0.5 BGR CHLMEX ZAF ARG 8 0.5 7 0.0 6 KOR 5 -0.5 ARG -1.0 4 y = -4.07+0.46*ln(x) [se=0.22] Correlation=0.57 3 .5 1 9 8 2 4 8 16 32 1994-99 wave 1.0 COL PRI CHE FIN SWE NZL USA 0.5 NOR GBR AUS SLV MEX BRA URY DEU CHNPHL VEN JPN ESP NGA TWN IND CZE PERTUR POLSVN HRV SVK HUN MKD SCG ZAF BIH AZE EST LTU LVA ROM BGD CHL ARG GEO ALB DOM BGR RUS BLR ARM UKR MDA 7 6 5 4 y = -4.00+0.43*ln(x) [se=0.05] Correlation=0.72 3 .5 1 -1.5 2 4 8 16 32 0.0 -0.5 Standardized satisfaction ladder score 6 5 NGA 1.0 CHN IND -1.0 4 y = -4.69+0.51*ln(x) [se=0.08] Correlation=0.74 3 .5 1 7 6 5 -1.5 3 8 16 32 1.0 PRI DNK MEX MLT IRL ISL LUX AUT FIN NLD CAN USA 0.5 SWE BEL VEN DEU GBR ARG SAU SVN ITA CHL CZE SGP ESP ISR PRT IDN FRA NGA GRC PHL VNM CHN KGZ JPN PER 0.0 POL KOR IRN HRV MAR SVK EST BGD DZA SCGBIHJOR TURZAFHUN UGA BGR LVA IRQ -0.5 ALBROM IND MKD LTU PAK EGY BLR RUS MDA UKR 8 4 4 1999-2004 wave 9 -1.0 2 -1.5 -1.0 ZWE TZA y = -2.88+0.32*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.72 .5 1 2 4 8 Real GDP per&Capita (thousands of dollars, scale) Sacks, Stevenson Wolfers, Income andlog Happiness 16 -1.5 32 14 9 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 2002 1.5 8 Standardized satisfaction ladder score βbetween ≈ 0.35 1.0 GTM 7 HND VNM 6 UZB NGA EGY IDN BOL CIV SEN PAK 5 4 KEN MLI IND BGDGHA KOR VEN BRA PER PHL JOR CHN LBN ARG CZE ITA FRA GBR DEU JPN SVK POL ZAF 0.0 -0.5 BGR y = -1.73+0.20*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.55 3 .5 1 0.5 UKR TURRUS UGA AGO TZA CANUSA MEX 2 4 8 Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) 16 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness -1.0 32 15 9 7 6 5 4 1.5 βbetween ≈ 0.35 DNK FIN CHE NLD NZL CAN N OR SWE IRL USA AUS CRI BEL ESPAUT SAU ISR GBR VEN FRA ARE ITA SGP MEX PRI PAN BRA CZE DEU GRC CYP JAM ARG TWN MYS GTM COL KWT JPN JOR LTU THA CHL TTO SVN HRV URY POL BLR KAZ KOR HKG BOL SLV CUB PRT VNM EST MMRUZB RUS SVK IRN PAK HND LAO ROM MNE DOM TUR INDEGY ZAF UNK BWA HUN DZA UKR MAR PER ECU PRY IDN MDA LBN GHA BIH NGA LVA PHL SRB CHN MOZ NIC KGZ MRT NPL SEN BGD AZE ALB IRQ ARMMKD ZMB TJK YEM AGO LKA MWIMDG MLI UGA RWA CMR KEN NER BEN ETH AFGTZA BFA BDI KHMGEO BGR TCD HTI Standardized satisfaction ladder score 8 Gallup World Poll SLE TGO 1 0.5 0.0 -0.5 ZWE y=-2.955+0.342*ln(x) [se=0.019] -1.0 Correlation=0.82 3 0.5 1.0 2 4 8 16 GDP per capita, (thousands of dollars, scale) Sacks,Real Stevenson & Wolfers, Income andlog Happiness 32 16 Comparing Within and Between Country Estimates 9 Country-year aggregates 1.5 Within-country wellbeing gradient Between-country wellbeing gradient 0.5 0.0 -0.5 DNK FIN CHE NLD NZLCAN NOR SWE IRL USA AUS CRI BEL ESPAUT SAU ISR GBR VEN FRA ARE ITA SGP MEX PRI PAN BRA CZE DEU GRC CYP JAM ARG TWN MYS GTM COL KWT JPN JOR THA CHLLTU TTO SVN HRV URY POL BLR KAZ KOR HKG BOL SLV CUB PRT VNM EST MMR UZB RUS SVK IRN PAK HND LAO ROM MNE DOM TUR INDEGY DZA UNK BWA HUN UKR ZAF MAR PER ECU PRY IDN MDA LBN GHA BIH NGA LVA PHL SRB CHN MOZ NIC KGZ MRT NPL SEN BGD AZE ALB ARM ZMB TJK YEM AGO LKA MKD MWIMDG MLI UGA RWA CMR KEN NER ETH AFG TZA BEN BFA BDI KHM GEO BGR TCD HTI βbetween -1.0 ≈ SLE .5 βwithin TGO 1 ≈ 0.35 Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) 1.0 8 ZWE 2 7 6 5 4 3 4 8 16 Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 32 18 Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country comparisons βwithin ≈ 0.35 USA All countries Between countries: Through time Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation βbetween ≈ 0.35 National Time Series and International Panels Japan Europe World Values Survey USA “income growth in a society does not increase happiness”. - Easterlin (1995) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 20 Happiness & Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence Japan Old view: Life satisfaction flat, despite robust post-war growth New view: Robust growth in life satisfaction …apparent only when taking account of breaks in the data US Old view: No increase in happiness since 1972 despite GDP growth New view: True. …but few sample participants experienced income growth Europe Old view: No clear evidence of growing life satisfaction (1973-89) New view: Extending data through 2007 yields clearly rising satisfaction Around the World Old view: No clear evidence of growing life satisfaction New view: Clear positive relationship between income and growth … when comparing comparable samples and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Source: Betsey StevensonStevenson and Justin Wolfers (2010), “Time Series Evidence on the Well-Being Link” 21 Change in Life Satisfaction and Economic Growth in Europe 0.50 Belgium Denmark Greece 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 0.50 y = 2.53 + -0.25 * log(GDP) [se=0.14] Correlation = -0.31 y = -3.63 + 0.36 * log(GDP) [se=0.05] Correlation = 0.73 France y = -2.05 + 0.21 * log(GDP) [se=0.10] Correlation = 0.22 Ireland Italy 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 0.50 y = -3.91 + 0.39 * log(GDP) [se=0.10] Correlation = 0.63 y = -0.90 + 0.09 * log(GDP) [se=0.05] Correlation = 0.30 Netherlands y = -6.75 + 0.68 * log(GDP) [se=0.09] Correlation = 0.81 United Kingdom West Germany 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 8 time series β y = -1.88 + 0.19 * log(GDP) [se=0.07] Correlation = 0.41 16 ≈ 0.35 32 y = -1.34 + 0.13 * log(GDP) [se=0.03] Correlation = 0.48 8 16 32 y = -1.08 + 0.11 * log(GDP) [se=0.08] Correlation = 0.19 8 Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) 16 32 26 0.4 International Panel Data: World Values Survey βpanel ≈ 0.35 0.2 0.0 -0.2 y = 0.51*ln(x) [se=0.13] Correlation=0.55 -0.4 -.5 -.25 0 .25 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness Log GDP, relative to country and wave fixed effects .5 28 Satisfaction and Growth: International Panel Regressions World Values Survey Eurobarometer All Countries Transition Non-transition All Countries Countries Countries Panel A: Panel Regressions 𝑳𝒊𝒇𝒆 𝑺𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒕 = 𝜷 𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒄𝒕 + 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒚 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒘𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒊𝒙𝒆𝒅 𝒆𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒔 ln(GDP) 0.505*** 0.638** 0.407*** 0.170** (0.109) (0.239) (0.116) (0.074) N 166 observations 31 observations 135 observations 776 observations 79 countries 10 countries 66 countries 31 countries Panel B: Long differences 𝚫𝑳𝒊𝒇𝒆 𝑺𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒄,𝒕 = 𝜷 𝚫𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒄𝒕 0.47*** 0.694* 0.35** (0.128) (0.387) (0.163) 66 differences 10 differences 46 differences ln(GDP) N 0.278* (0.164) 30 differences βpanel ≈ 0.35 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 29 Long Differences: World Values Survey βpanel ≈ 0.4 0.35 SVN KOR KOR Offscale (1, 0.33) MDA VEN 0.2 ITA CZE BGR ESP MEX AUT FIN UKR IRL FRA MLT DEU BEL CHE NLD BIH HRV DNK EST 0.0 ISL BRA ZAF CAN AUS PER SCG ALB PRI PRT NOR USA POL JPN GBR LVA SWE -0.2 PHL SVK ROM RUS BLR TUR LTU MKD -0.4 HUN -0.6 y = 0.00+0.47*ln(x) [se=0.14] Correlation=0.54 -.5 -.25 0 and Happiness.25 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income Change in log GDP, relative to country and wave fixed effects .5 31 Conclusion: Stylized Facts about Well-being and Income Within-country comparisons Japan USA 9 European nations International Panel data Since 1946 Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation National Time Series βwithin ≈ 0.35 Between countries: USA All countries World Values Survey Eurobarometer βbetween ≈ 0.35 βtime series ≈ 0.35 βinternational panel≈ 0.35 Other measures of well-being Pain, depression, smiling, good tasting food to eat, respect Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 33 Is there any evidence of satiation? “if we compare countries, there is no evidence that richer countries are happier than poorer ones – so long as we confine ourselves to countries with incomes over $15,000 per head.” - Layard (2005) Rich countries (GDP>$15,000) Satisfaction=1.08*log(GDP) [se=0.21] Poor countries (GDP<$15,000) Satisfaction=0.35*log(GDP) [se=0.04] A 1% rise in GDP: Has three times larger effects in rich countries than poor countries A $100 rise in GDP 3x larger effect in Jamaica than US 20x larger effect in Burundi than US Sacks, Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 34 Happiness and GDP (World Values Survey) 4 1.0 TZA NGA MEX PRI ISL NLD DNK CAN IRL SAU BELUSA 0.5 LUX SWE PHL AUT SGP FRA CHL ARG MLT JPN IDN FIN ZAF ESP MAR UGA KGZ BIH DEU PRTISR CZE KOR PERDZA ITA PAK IND 0.0 POL TUR HRV JOR MKD GRC SVN BGD CHN IRN LTU HUN SCG EST SVK BLR ZWEIRQ LVA ALB -0.5 MDA RUS UKR BGR ROM VEN Standardized happiness VNM 3 EGY y = -0.89+0.11*ln(x) [se=0.05] Correlation=0.29 Excluding NGA and TZA: y = -1.70+0.20*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.49 2 .5 1 2 4 8 and Happiness 16 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income GDP (log scale) 32 -1.0 36 Enjoyment 0.90 CAN NZL DNK KWT IRL NOR USA LAO SWE CRI CHE AUS NLD AUT PRYSLV CYP GBR CHN ECU GTM MEX ARG TWN UZB BEL VEN THA DJI IDN BRA TTO NPL COLPAN SAU MLI JAM URY CZE MYS CHL DEU FRA GUY HND ARE KEN MRT PHL LVA ZAF BLZ SVK HUN SEN NIC BOL NER POL EST SGP TZA NGA NAM FIN BGDKHM ISRJPN IND LKA GIN JOR PERROU BWA GRC HKG SDN SVN DOM MWI ZMB KAZ AFG ESP RWA TJK MKD SRB RUS ITA CAF EGYBIH KGZ MDA UKR MDG MMR KOR TUNBLR HRV PRT TCD PAK COG BFA UGA SYR GHA LTU BGR CMR IRN ALB LBN MNG ETH AZE HTIBEN YEM MAR AGO TUR MOZ DZA ARM TGO VNM 0.80 0.70 ZWE COD 0.60 0.50 LBR BDI GEO SLE 0.40 Correlation = 0.49 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 41 Depression 0.40 ETH 0.30 KHM YEM SLE BGD HTI IRN KOR BOL LBN PHL RWA EGYAZE PAK ARM HUN PER DZA IND NIC AFG CMRMDA SYR UGA BLZ PRT DOM ARE JOR ECU SRB BLR TUR JPN BIH COL TZA TJK HRV ZAF CHL GUY TTO GEO BWA SDN GTM TUN MKD MDG TGO COG UKR MOZ MAR RUS CZEISR MWI GIN TWN NGA URY LKA SLV KAZ JAM AGO MNG VNM ROU BGR HKGSGP CRI MEX SVK GHA LTU EST NAM SAU KWT USA ITA MYS HND VEN ARG LVA GRCGBR BEN ZMB NPL TCD CHN ESP CYP PRY NER AUS KGZ BEL BRA FIN UZB PAN CAN NOR KEN DJI SVN MMR MLI NZL THA CAF BFA FRA POL MRT IRL DEU NLD IDN AUT SWE CHE LAO SEN DNK ALB LBR 0.20 ZWE 0.10 0.00 BDI COD Correlation = 0.29 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 42 Stress 0.80 PHL 0.60 SYR USA DZA ROU LBN TUR HKG IRN KOR NZL TUN DEU DOM ITA TJK AUS PRTISR CAN BLZ KHM SLERWA CHN COL PER GBR MDGHTI BOL ECU CRIMEXSVK TWN BEL SGP JPN JOR FRA CHE EGY UGA AUT NGA MYSHUN URY YEM IRL TZA ARE TTO BGD BRA ARG ZAF CHL SLVTHA VEN LVA IND NIC ESP GHA MWI KWTNOR FIN SAU SWE POL CZE BWA ETH GTM JAM CMR VNM KEN HND PAN AGO SEN PAK ESTSVN DNK NLD AFG ARM TGO MDA GEO TCD MOZ ZMB BEN BLR LTU COG AZE UKR KAZ NER PRY RUS NPL BFA LAO MNG IDN MLI KGZ MMR UZB DJI MRT 0.40 GUY LKA ZWE 0.20 0.00 GRC CYP BDI LBR Correlation = 0.33 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 43 Were you treated with respect all day yesterday? 1.00 ESP PRY NLD PRT ARG KWT SWE COL VEN IRL CHE CRI BEL FRA AUT DOM BRA NIC DNK URY SLVECU POL FIN PAN DEU ARE NOR CHLTTO SVN NZL UZB PHL CYP AUS PER CAN ITA HND NER BOL VNM EGY GBR USA TWN GRC ARM MEX EST LBN MOZ SEN SDN HUN CHN GIN GHA MRT LVA ROU RUS JOR NAM TUN IDN MLI PAK GTM ISR HKG MAR BGR BFA KGZ AFG SAU UKR YEM KEN BWA NGA AGO MKD MDGTZA TJK KAZ SVK IRN MYS SRB ZMB AZE DZA JAM HRV MDAGUY SYR COG GEO BLZZAF BLR BEN SLE BGD CMR ALB CZE DJI TUR MWI CAF KHM TGO SGP BIH THA IND UGA LKA LTU 0.90 LBR COD 0.80 0.70 ZWE BDI HTI TCD RWA ETH 0.60 MNG JPN KOR LAO 0.50 MMR Correlation = 0.46 NPL .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 44 Did you have good tasting food to eat yesterday? 1.00 PRT IRL FIN CAN AUT NLD GUY NZL TTO SVN USA PRY SWE AUS MEX LAO DNK BEL HRV VEN GBR SVK KWTNOR JAM SRB EST ARE HUN CHE PAN DEU ITA MNG THA UZB EGYBIH CZE ESP SEN MKD CRI ARG BGR MRT URY ECU SAU POL JOR CYP GHA NGA BRA BLZ LTU SDN ROU COL CHL MDG FRA JPN ISR KAZ KGZ SLV LBN HND GTM BOL IRNMYS UKR GIN RUS DOM PER TUR NAM LVA GRC MOZNPL TZA ZAF NICPHL ALB AZE BLR KOR AFG MMR KEN TJK PAK SLE HKG VNM AGO CMR NER MLI TGO MDA BWA SGP MWI KHM IND MAR CAF BFA ZMB UGA TCD TWN ARM HTI BGD YEM CHN GEO RWA BEN ETH IDN LKA 0.80 LBR COD 0.60 ZWE 0.40 BDI Correlation = 0.60 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 45 Did you smile or laugh a lot yesterday? 0.90 NAM SLV CRI VEN PAN IRL LAONIC PRY BRA PHL ECU ESPCAN HND NGA ARG NZL GTM THA MEXTTO CYP COL KWT TWN BEL USA JAM NLD CHN AUS JPN DOM ZAF SDN IDN GBR LKA CHL DNK URY BOL AUT CHE GUY SWE NOR MYS PRT FRA PER MRT VNM TZA BLZ MDG GHA HKG FIN RWA BWA GRC EGY MLIZMBKHM POL DEU ARE KEN MOZ MWI NER ITA DJI SEN KOR CZE MAR ISR SGP GIN PAK JOR UZB TUN SAU SLE UGA HTI KGZ COG DZA TUR MMR BFABEN AGO IND HUN SVN YEM SYR KAZ CMR IRN SVK AFG NPL RUS TJK UKR ROU LVA EST ETH BGD LTU BGR BLR TCD MNG CAF BIH MKD MDA TGO LBN HRV ARM 0.80 LBR 0.70 ZWE 0.60 0.50 COD ALB SRB AZE 0.40 Correlation = 0.29 BDI .25 .5 GEO 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 46 Would you like to have more days just like yesterday? 0.90 KWT HND SLV SGP MEX PRY VEN MRT CRI PAN DJI GTM UZB NIC IDN ECU ARG SAUESP PAK JAM COL KEN IRL TZA NGA PHL BOL AFG ARE DNK URY NER PRT FRA MOZMLI SEN BRA SWE BEL CAN NLD NOR MKD BLZ PER ZAF MYS USA CHE NPL CZE NAM GUY BIH AGO HKG CHL SRB THA MDG GHA LTU HUN VNM LKA TTO ESTNZL DOM KGZ LAO SDN IND JOR ISR AUS BGR ZMBTJK HRV SVN GBR BFA POL UKR KAZ FIN LVA TUR JPN AUT ROU CYP MWI UGA TCD SLE GIN KHM BWA CHN TWN EGY ETH HTI GRC SVK MDA LBNRUS RWA BGD CMR MAR BLR KOR ITA MNG SYR DEU MMR BEN AZE CAF COG ALB TGO DZA ARM YEM IRN TUN 0.80 0.70 0.60 ZWE BDI COD LBR 0.50 0.40 Correlation = 0.21 GEO .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 47 Boredom TUR 0.50 GEO ARM AZE SYR DZA MAR 0.40 YEM AFG ETH 0.30 PHL KHM TUN ALB LBN HKG IDN EGY BOL BLZ GRCARE RWA PER KOR CHL MDA AGO COL MKD SRBMEX USA SLE TGOUGA TJK GUY BIH ISRGBR SAU MYS GIN SLV CMR ROU ECU GTM THA URYHRV BEN KEN BLRARG BGDTCD PAK AUS NOR SGP ITA BWA CAN ESP IRL TTO NZL BGRPOL CHN CRI UKR JAM LKA DOM UZB SDN GHA KGZ KAZ RUS ZAF CAF NPL TWN JPN VEN LTU HND TZA KWT IND BFA MOZ MDG NAM FIN ZMBSEN EST CYP SVK SWE MLI PRT FRA PAN VNM MWI BRA LVACZE BEL CHE MNGPRY NER SVNDEU DNK MRT AUT NGA HUN LAO = 0.11 NLD MMR NIC ZWE LBR BDI 0.20 COD 0.10 HTI JOR IRN Correlation .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 50 Sadness 0.40 KHM LBR SLE 0.20 TUR HTI PRT IRN NIC TGO MDA ROU CHL DOM BLR YEM COG EGY AGO SYR LTU ECU BGD COL ITA HRV LBN BEN PAK BGR ARG CMR GUY ISR SRB CAF BRA RWA GIN GBR GTM AZE HUN POL SVK GEO UKR BLZKAZ MOZ MEX LVA SLV URY RUS DZA BIH CRI VNM ALB BFA ESPARE CYP ETHUGA ZMB IND IDN BWA LKA TCD SDN TUN ZAF EST JAM SGP DEU AFG GRC TZA PRY BELUSA FRA MAR TTO NZL HND AUS JOR GHA CHE CZE CAN TJK MWI MKD VEN IRL UZBMNG KOR SVN KWT SEN NLD NER MDG PAN KGZ AUT NOR NGA MLI KEN MYS SAU SWE DNK HKG NPL NAM JPN FIN MRT DJI LAO CHN THA TWN 0.30 ZWE BOL PHL ARM PER BDI COD 0.10 MMR 0.00 Correlation = 0.15 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Realand GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 51 Did you feel well rested yesterday? 0.90 KWT PRY IDN NAM 0.80 VEN CHN MYS HND SLV THAPANMEX JPN HKG CRI MRT ESP IRL COL VNMPHL SGP LAO ECU TWN AUT ARE NGA UZB NPL NIC MAR ZAF ARG PRT URY SAU NLD DJI GTM EGY TZA SDN AFG BOL MWI CHE GHA KEN SEN KOR BEL CAN MLI GIN FIN MNG BLZ DOM NER JOR SVN COG DNK NOR PER UGA CHL BWA MKD ZMBKHM PAK GUY BRA DEU JAM SWEUSA IND MOZ BGD KGZ BGR CMR GBR AGO TUNSRB RWA TTO NZL IRN FRA AUS ISR SLE KAZ LKA BIH POL TUR ITA GRC CZE BEN TCD SVK HRV EST CAF BFA HTI TJK LBN LVA SYR UKR ROU RUS LTU YEM TGO MDG DZA BLR MMR ETH CYP MDA HUN AZE ALB GEO ARM 0.70 COD 0.60 ZWE LBR BDI 0.50 0.40 Correlation = 0.14 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 54 Love 1.00 RWA KHM HUN TTO CYP LBN CRI NGA ESP TZA LAO MEX ECU JAMBRA VEN ARG BEL GRC CAN DNK USA PRT NLD VNM NZL ITA COL URY MDG DOM TUR ARE SAU AUS MWI CAF GHA ZAF PANCHL KEN PAK ZMB NAM NIC DEU IRL SWE AUT CHE GBR FRA FIN KWT SLV HNDEGY PER SRB BIH SLE IND TWN BGD BLZ HRV SVN MKD BOL MOZ HTI IRN CHN NOR LKA POL GTM THA UGA ISR SDN JORALB GIN BWA BFA SEN ROUMYS NER MLI IDN AGO AFG HKG CMR BGR SVK NPL CZE JPN SGP MRT KOR MMR BEN LVA TGO EST LTU RUS TCD YEM UKR ETH AZE TJK MDA KAZ MAR BLR GEO PRY GUY 0.80 LBR ZWE 0.60 PHL BDI COD 0.40 KGZ UZBMNG ARM 0.20 Correlation = 0.19 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 56 Physical Pain 0.50 SLE CAF LBR 0.40 TGO ETH EGYDZA SYR YEM CMR SDN NER JOR PER SEN BEN COG CHL AGO TUN ARM DOM ARG BFA MRTNIC BOL AZE ROU PAK MOZ TZA UGA ISR KWT GIN TCD ALB GEO HUN ECU KHM RWA GHA PRT ESP BRA FRA IRN CRIMEX LKA SLV COL GTM UKR LBN CYPBEL URY BWA KOR MWI VEN CHESGP NGA TJK USA HRV SVN MAR GUY BGD GRC MLI KAZ BLR KGZ IND NPL NZL HND PHL SVK GBR CAN AUS AFG MMRZMB UZB BLZSRB TTO ITA PRY BIH ARE ZAF MKD LTUCZE DEU TUR DJI THA BGRRUS DNK AUT PAN LVASAU SWE MDG KEN NLD FIN NAM POL JPN NOR IDN MYS EST TWN IRL HKG CHN JAM MNG LAO 0.30 ZWE BDI COD 0.20 0.10 MDA HTI Correlation = 0.39 VNM .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Source: Alan Krueger, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “A World of Pain”. 64 57 A Global Map of PainGlobal Map of Pain Proportion of population experiencing pain [0.00,0.05] (0) (0.05,0.10] (1) (0.10,0.15] (4) (0.15,0.20] (22) (0.20,0.25] (65) (0.25,0.30] (49) (0.30,0.35] (34) (0.35,0.40] (13) (0.40,0.45] (5) (0.45,0.50] (2) (0.50,0.55] (1) No data (56) Did you experience the following feelings during a lot of the day yesterday? How about physical pain? Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Source: Alan Krueger, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “A World of Pain”. 58 Blank slide: End of talk Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 59 Research Program Research program (with Betsey Stevenson) that seeks to establish robust stylized facts about subjective well-being Relationship between income and happiness “Economic Growth and Happiness: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox” Consequences of income inequality “The Happiness Price of Income Inequality” (in progress) Happiness and gender “The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness” Subjective well-being and the business cycle “Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly?” Trends in the distribution of happiness “Happiness Inequality in the United States” Affect versus evaluative measures of well-being “A World of Pain” (also with Alan Krueger) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 60 Business Cycle andthe Happiness, U.S.Cycle Subjective Well-Being and Business Correlation = -0.45 0.10 -2 -1 Unemployment rate - Natural Rate 0.05 -0.05 -0.10 Scale reversed 0.00 0 1 2 3 Happiness Unemployment, relative to NAIRU (right axis; inverse scale) 4 -0.15 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 2010 62 Feb-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Satisfaction Ladder (%"Thriving": Satisfaction >8) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 60 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 New Opportunity: Daily Data Satisfaction: Daily Data Source: Gallup Daily Poll 55 50 45 40 35 30 63 in the United States Happiness in theHappiness United States %>Median Happiness: Ordered probit index: Women Women Men Men Difference .4 .2 0 -.2 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: General Social Survey & Wolfers, Income and Happiness Sacks, Stevenson 2010 65 Research Question Does inequality undermine average levels of subjective well-being? Surprisingly mixed findings: “The presumed link between equality and happiness fails to appear, at least where income inequality is concerned. Average happiness is as high in countries with great income inequality as in nations where income differences are small” –Veenhoven (2000) Including inequality in our regressions using the available data, we find that is has a negative effect, although its’ size and significance levels are both low. –Di Tella and MacCulloch (2008) “In the whole World Values Survey sample, the Gini coefficient has a positive (albeit not always significant) effect on life satisfaction.”—Guriev and Zhuravskaya (JEP 2008, p.157) “Adding a World Bank estimate of the Gini coefficient for each national economy added no explanatory power to the well-being equation.”—Helliwell (2003) Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 67 A Simple Framework Individual well-being: 𝑊𝑒𝑙𝑙 − 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑖𝑐 = 𝛼 + 𝛽 log 𝑦𝑖𝑐 + 𝜖𝑖𝑐 Average well-being in each country: 𝑊𝑒𝑙𝑙 − 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑐 = 𝛼 + 𝛽 log 𝑦 𝑐 + 𝜖𝑐 Average of log income, not Log of average income Which implies: 𝑊𝑒𝑙𝑙 − 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑐 = 𝛼 + 𝛽 log 𝑦𝑐 − 𝛽 log 𝑦𝑐 − log 𝑦 𝑐 + 𝜖𝑐 Mean log deviation Equal and opposite effects Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 68 Satisfaction and Inequality, Conditional Log GDP Conditional Relationship Between GDP &onMLD 2.0 Satisfaction = 0.30*log GDP (se=0.02) -0.22*inequality (se=0.14) 1.0 CRI DNK GUY FINCOD GTM NZLVEN NLD PANCOL CHE CAN SWE JAM MEX MOZ ISR AUS NOR BEL IRL VNM BRA LBR USA LAO AUT JOR NPL UZB BDIBGD MWI CAF TKM HND MDA ESP GHA DJI IND GBR NER N GA ARG UGA RWA MDG ETH PAK THA NIC ZMB CZE KGZ ITA PRY TJK FRA MYSIDN SEN GIN SLV TTO DEU URY CHL TZA MRT MLI EGY TUN KAZ MAR PHL LUX ECU GRC HRV BLR YEM DZA KEN SGP LTU POL CIV BFA TCD CMR UKR MNG HTI DOM SLE JPN ROU KHM IRN PER CHN SVN BIH TUR PRT RUS LKA ALBAZE BEN ARM SVK KOR EST TGO MKD HUN LVA ZWE GEOHKGCOG 0.0 BOL NAM ZAF AGO BWA COM BGR -1.0 -2.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Inequality: E[Mean log deviation | Log GDP] (World Bank Inequality Data) Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness Source: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “Inequality and Subjective Well-Being”. 69 Variation in Log GDP and Mean Log Deviation 30 Inequality: Mean 25 20 15 10 5 *Bars are 1/20th as wide 0 -4 -3 -2 30 Inequality: 25 20 15 10 5 *Bars are 1/20th as wide 0 -4 -3 -2 $1 28 k 2 $6 4k 1 $3 2k 0 $1 6k -1 $8 k -2 $4 k $2 k $1 k k -3 $. 5 -4 $. 2 25 20 15 10 5 0 5k Distribution of Log GDP and Inequalty 30 Log GDP per Capita: SD=1.34 3 4 Log Deviation (Gallup measure): SD=0.16 -1 0 1 2 3 4 3 4 Mean Log Deviation | Log GDP: SD=0.14 -1 0 1 Variation around the mean; Log points Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 2 Source: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “Inequality and Subjective Well-Being”. 70 Aggregate Happiness Trends: Comparing Dist’ns Trends in the Distribution of U.S. Happiness 0.20 Average Happiness 0.00 -0.20 Assuming that the distribution of happiness is: Normal -0.40 1972 1976 1980 1984 Logistic 1988 1992 Uniform 1996 2000 2004 2008 1996 2000 2004 2008 Happiness Inequality 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 72 Trends in Average Levels of Happiness Between Groups 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Education -0.50 -0.75 College grads Some college High school <High school Gender Men Race Women White Non-white 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Region -0.50 Age Group Marital Status 18-34 yrs 35-49 yrs 50+ yrs -0.75 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 Married 1980 Unmarried 1990 2000 2010 1970 Northeast Midwest South West 1980 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 1990 2000 2010 73