Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012,
AIM, Makati, Philippines
National
Hydrometeorological
Services (NHMS):
An Assessment of the
Philippines
Tasks undertaken
• An update and review of the draft report of MMHS
under the project “Strengthening Meteorological
and Hydrological Services in East Asia”
• Mar-Apr 2012; UNISDR AP, Bangkok
• PAGASA’s collaboration <Dr. Nathaniel
Servando/Nancy Lance, Planning>
• Review by staff led by Dr. Susan Espinueva, 19 Apr
• Interview with DOST/PCIEERD <Raul Sabularse>, 23
Apr
• Review of socio-economic analysis <Danilo Israel>
Analysis according to TOR
1. Review existing capacity and infrastructure
issues;
2. Assess services needs of user community
3. Identify the existing meteorological and
relevant data collection and exchange
procedures
4. Identify relevant data-sharing protocols and
requirements, considering, standards for
hydrological data exchange within and among
states;
Analysis according to TOR
5. Prepare two investment scenarios for the region
assuming that: (a) protocols will be established whereby
data are fully and freely, and shared among the member
states, and (b) data sharing as it occurs today;
6. Prepare data sharing requirements and standards based
on their needs and assuming that capacity will be
improved;
7. Prepare detailed investment plans for each country
program;
8. Identify potential partnerships between national and
international weather agencies based on the technical
assistance needs identified in the study.
Outline-Draft report (ca 2011)
• Executive Summary
• Philippine Context
• Results of cost benefit analysis
• User needs assessment
• Philippine NHMS: PAGASA
- Organization/Resources
- Current services
- Network of monitoring stations
Outline (Cont’d)
• Philippines: NHMS (Continuation)
• Maintenance, calibration and manufacturing of
monitoring facilities
• Numerical weather prediction (NWP)
• Information, Communication Technology (ICT)
• National & international cooperation and data
sharing
• Development plans proposed by PAGASA
• Summary
• Recommendations to strengthen NHMS services
• Project proposal
Report: Table of contents
• Executive Summary
• Philippines in a Nutshell
(description, economic overview,
climate , disaster risk profile,
institutional and planning context)
• Socio-economic Benefits of HydroMeteorological Services
• User Needs Assessment of Hydrometeorological Services &
Information
• The National Meteorological &
Hydrological Services in the
Philippines
• Current Services of the NHMS
• PAGASAs Network for Monitoring
Stations (Surface, remote sensing
observations)
• Maintenance, Calibration &
Manufacturing of Monitoring Facilities
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
• Information , Communication
Technology (ICT)
• National & International Cooperation
and Data Sharing
• Development Plans Proposed by
PAGASA
• Summary
• Recommendations to Strengthen the
Meteorological & Hydrological
Services
• Project Proposal
• Persons Met During the Mission
• References
• Appendices
General observations since
completion of draft
• Significant changes in legal and institutional
framework in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and
climate change adaptation/mitigation;
mainstreaming
• Enhanced weather forecasting capacity in terms of
hardware
• Evolving arrangements in the process of fast tracking
mitigation measures for flood and hydromet events
• Heightened socio-political dimensions relative to
awareness level and Philippine development
planning
Disasters and NHMS
• All sectors realized
• the importance of HMS
• the need to share data and other
information to other NMHS’ in the
region.
• Establishment of mechanism for publicprivate partnership in disaster
reconstruction
Assessment of NHMS in the
Philippines
• Automation program to address need for
accurate and frequent updates on severe
weather
• Doppler radar installation  Transport,
construction, industry
• Tailor-made forecast  Agriculture
• Upgrading of facilities  increase value of
forecast products
• Pursuing commercialization of some specialized
products to private companies and others
(aviation, shipping, etc.)
PAGASA as NHMS: National
set-up
• Mandate: to provide weather, climate,
agro-met and hydrological services in the
Philippines for public safety and in support
of economic development; to disseminate
official time and provide basic
astronomical services.
PAGASA as NHMS
• Operates & maintains 98% of all hydromet
observation networks
- aviation met service offices in major airports
- Weather, climate and hydrology within
PAGASA headquarters
• Official forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks,
press releases on severe weather & extreme
events (tropical cyclone, flood, drought, El
Nino/La Nina
PAGASA plans
• Updated Strategic Plan (SP) in line with
WMO Regional Association V SP 20122015 <SP2008-2012  Output of 2011 SP
workshop>
• Long-term Plan/PAGASA Onwards 2020
• R&D-Operations and Services Framework
• Investment Portfolio – annual review
Planning context
• Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 20112016
• National S&T Plan
• National Disaster Risk Reduction &
Management Plan 2011-2028
• National Climate Change Action Plan 20112038
• Pres. Aquino’s 16-point agenda
Philippine Context-PAGASA
input
• Climate projections using PRECIS/Hadley
Centre
• Second National Communication to IPCCC
• Weather & climate-dependent economic
sectors, 61% of GDP: manufacturing <23%>,
agriculture <14%>, post/telecommunication
<5%>, construction <4.5%>, fishing <4.3%>
forestry, land transport, electricity/gas/water
supply, mining/quarrying,
hotels/restaurants.
Profile of PAGASA
• “Aging” workforce: 873 staff
- 82, R&D; 11, education/training
- 11, PhD; 50, MSc: 5, Diploma
• 5 Regional Service Division
• Modernization program <3-year plan>:
• 14 Doppler radars; > 150 automatic weather stations
(AWS); 100 automatic rain gauges (ARGs)
• 2 Aviation Weather Observing Systems (AWS), 2 marine
meteorological buoys, 1 wind profiler, 6 upper air
stations, forecast automation
• Uninterrupted service 24/7/365 basis
• Annual budget: Php817 million (2011) __% increase from
2010
Current Services of PAGASA
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Weather services
Early warning System
Climatological and agrometeorological services
Hydrological services
Marine services
Environmental services
R&D based Expert services
Information services
Library services
Training services
Internet
Partnerships with other agencies to expand observing
network & data sharing
PAGASA’s modernization
• Development of a 3-year modernization plan
• Additional state-of-the-art equipment,
instruments, machines, computers & other
facilities
• Manpower training & human resource dev.
• Strengthening Regional Weather Service Centers
• Greater public awareness through education
projects/programs
PAGASA’s Collaboration
• Designated WMO Regional Training Center for
South Pacific
• Member of Typhoon Committee
• UNO: WMO, ICAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNESCAP
• Links with UNEP, IPCC, APCN, ICTP, IOC, COST<
APCC, RIMES
• Data sharing/Research/Training MOU with
NHMCs of Korea, Viet Nam, Mongola
• JAMSTEC, DWD
User needs assessment:
Sectors
• Status, government measures
• Agriculture, environmental
protection/forest management, water
resources, energy production &
distribution, transport, construction, land
use & planning, recreation/tourism,
health, insurance, disaster reduction,
military, climate change, media
PAGASA Gaps/Limitations
• Manual production/dissemination of hydromet
forecasting & warning services needing data
integration & processing
• Online hydromet obervations very limited in
Visayas & Mindanao
• Quality of information is fair because of limited
automatic editing and production system
• No nowcasts due to lack of appropriate
equipment & inadequate skills of technical staff.
Institutional capacities: gaps & needs
(Table 12.1)
Issue
Gaps and needs
Data
- Data rescue of historical climate data is urgently
products needed
-High performance Data Quality Management system
to support NWP system
-Integrated database system for NWP data assimilation
-Replacement and timely calibration schedule of met.
and climate Instruments in some remote stations
-Reliable and low-cost observation data communication
system needed for efficiency
Hazard
analysis
-Sufficient number of expert in disaster mitigation and
risk assessment
-Applied R&D products for domestic weather and
climate forecasting still relatively limited
Institutional capacities: gaps & needs
(Table 12.1)
Issue
Forecasts &
warnings
EWS
expertise &
advisory
service
Gaps and needs
- High performance NWP assimilation system in
place and operational
- Radar and satellite data assimilation and remote
sensing-based observation product development
- Development of human resources in weather and
climate modeling (NWP and climate models)
- Flood forecasts showing height and limits of
inundation areas
- Extended hydrological forecasts
- Tailor made forecasts for various sectors
Continuous upgrading the skills of PAGASA’s
operational staffs to utilize and manage the latest
technology instruments and systems
Institutional capacities
No gaps/needs articulated for
• Cooperation with other technical agencies
• International
• National
• Dissemination mechanisms
• Communication and media
Cooperation with other technical
agencies
National level
• Various Departments:
Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management, Public Works,
Energy,
• Agriculture, Health,
• Transport,
• National Mapping,
• Mines &Geoscience,
• Civil Defense, etc.
• Local/provincial governments
• Universities: University of the
Philippines, Ateneo de Manila
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International level
ASEAN’s SCMG
JAMSTEC Japan
KOICA Korea
KMA Korea
JICA Japan
JMA Japan
CMA China
DMHCC Vietnam
TECO Taiwan
Norad Norway
UNDP
AusAID
USTDA
USAID
ADPC
RIMES
PAGASA’s Skill Level:
Distribution of Rating per Level
36 parameters, 5 levels of rating
2 (5%)
9 (25%)
6 (17%)
Level 1:
Very bad
Level 2:
Poor
Level 3:
Moderate
19 (53%)
Level 4:
Good
Foreseen possibility for sustainable devt
Market position
Cooperation with media
Customer orientation
Public appreciation
Public visibility
Competitiveness
Organization
Management
Competitiveness on labour market
Training programme
Level of staff education
Human resources
Webpage
Data management
Communcation system
Maintenance & calibration
Environmental obs.
Hydrological obs. Network
Lightning detection
Radar data
Upper-air data
Surface synop network
Support of R&D to main lines
R&D
Climate change
Automated processing/visualization
Agrometeorological services
Hydrological forecast
NWP
No. of WF products
Weather forecast
International cooperation
Networking to regional hydromet org
Data sharing/GTS
Disaster reduction
PAGASA’s Skill Level
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
PAGASA’s Skills: Level rating
• Level 1 (Very bad): 2/36
• Lightning detection; environmental
observation
• Level 2 (Poor): 6/36
• Networking to regional hydromet
organizations
• Automated processing & visualization
• R&D
• Radar data
• Communication system
• Data management
PAGASA’s Skill Level Rating
Level 3 (Moderate): 19/36
-
Disaster reduction
Weather forecast
No. of WF products
NWP
Hydrological forecast
Agrometeorological
services
Support of R&D to main
lines
Surface synop network
Hydrological obs. Network
Maintenance & calibration
• Human resources
• Level of staff
education Training
programme
Competitiveness on
labour market
• Management
• Organization
• Public appreciation
• Customer orientation
• Market position
PAGASA’s Skill Level
Level 4 (Good)
• Data sharing/GTS
• International cooperation
• Climate change
• Upper-air data
• Webpage
• Competitiveness
• Public visibility
• Cooperation with media
• Foreseen possibility for sustainable devt
PAGASA Vision
• Leading role in hydromet EWS
• Provide public access to quality products
• Strong advocacy in climate change adaptation
• Excellence in tropical cycle forecasting (SEA)
• A strong & dynamic organization with inspired &
dedicated workforce
• Well-managed resources
Project Proposal
• 5-year investment plan
• To improve PAGASA’s services for the benefit of
the various socio-economic sectors
• Reflects the large increase in operational cost to
the government as a results of its modernization
• DRR that emphasizes coordination and
integrated system of information
• User-centered
Integration of forecasts, warnings
and related information
PAGASA’s Commitment
• Enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities
• HRDP- Improving capacities of PAGASA
forecasting personnel
• Strengthening flood monitoring, forecasting &
warning system
• R&D: Strengthening support to climate change
adaptation related measures
• DRR related S&T program/awareness promotion
(incl. establishing a National Meteorological &
Climate Center)
PAGASA’s Commitment: Enhancement
of Weather Forecasting Capabilities
• Automated Data Integration, Analysis and Display
System for Timely and Reliable Weather
Information for Disaster Mitigation and Decision
Support
• Doppler Weather Radar Program
• Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Rain
gauges, and Water level sensors
• Warning system for Marine Navigation and
Transport
• Redundant Communication System
Doppler radar network showing
existing and under implementation
Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA.
Components
• International cooperation of experts
• Modernization of on-going projects (flood
forecasting, radar, wind profiler, marine buoy,
AWOS, AWS, high-speed PC cluster computing
system, upgrading of tecommunication system,
acquisition of equipment
• Specialized training involving strengthening of
cooperation in SEA for data sharing, information
exchange and research collaboration
Socio-economic value
• For a 20% reduction in damages, improvements
from 2010-2020 yield discounted benefits =
USD173.70 million
Option
Costs (USD million)
Cost/benefit ratio
Stand alone
32.70
1:6.3
With regional
cooperation
27.14
1:6.4
Note: (1) C/B ratios are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by WMO.
(2) Regional system is more desirable.
(3) C/B ratios would improve if indirect benefits and benefits beyond
2029 are included.
Financing
• National government & foreign donors
• Government counterpart funds &
technical personnel in project
implementation
• Government budget allocation for O&M
costs
Concluding remarks
• The positive direction taken by PAGASA and
other stakeholders to reduce disaster risk
through hydromet services is proper in the
context of WMO. It shall need further tweaking
in terms of two major streams: (1) Philippine
government’s overall development, and (2)
regional demands as evidenced by weather
extremes and climate variability.
• There is need for a constructive regular dialogue
among the major stakeholders from S&T
community and users.
Next Steps
• A regional system to enhance early
warning and disaster risk reduction is
mainly beneficial to the Philippines in
terms of human resource development.
• The Philippines can contribute to
data/information sharing in the region
needing further dialogue among relevant
stakeholders.