北京大学, 工学院
PKU, College of Engineering
Globex
China’s Economy:
Growth and Global Connections
Urbanization, Environment (air, water),
and Energy
Susan Mays, Ph.D., contact smays999@yahoo.com
Globex Faculty Fellow, Peking University; Faculty, The University of Texas at Austin
China’s great transformation affects energy and
environment in China…and all around the world
Three major transformations
 Industrialization
"Turning Your Eyes to China”
 Urbanization
 Motorization
Three socio-economic targets
 2000, well off society
“Since China has 1.3 billion people, any small
individual shortage, multiplied by 1.3 billion,
becomes a big, big problem. And any
considerable amount of financial and material
resources, divided by 1.3 billion, becomes a very
low per capita level.”
Speech by Premier Wen Jiabao at Harvard
December 10, 2003
 2020, all round well off society
 2050, developed country level
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Urbanization
3
3
June, 2013
ch as27Shenzhen
and Dongguan, the population of migrant workers now
There are an estimated 262 million rural migrant workers in China. They have been the engine of China’s spectacular economic
With
mass
total
urban
likely
growth over
the last twomigration,
decades
but, because
of China’s
the household
registration
system,
theythird
are stillpopulation
marginalized
and discriminated
whole,
migrants
now
make
up about
one
of the
total
urban popu
Like
26
0
against. Their children have limited access to education and healthcare and can be separated from their parents for years on end.
crossed the 50 percent mark in 2010-2011
Urbanisation and the household registration system
n with an urban hukou in China – as a percentage of total population in China
In 1958, the Chinese government formally reintroduced the household registration (Hukou 口) system. Household registers had
been used by Chinese authorities for millennia to facilitate taxation and control migration. This new hukou system was designed by
the Communist government with three main purposes in mind: government welfare and resource distribution, internal migration
control and criminal surveillance. Each town and city issued its own hukou, which entitled only its registered residents access to
social welfare services in that jurisdiction. Individuals were broadly categorised as "rural" or "urban" based on their place of
residence. Moreover, the hukou was hereditary: children whose parents held a rural hukou would also have a rural hukou
irrespective of their place of birth.
The hukou system was supposed to ensure that China’s rural population stayed in the countryside and continued to provide the
food and other resources that urban residents needed. However, as the economic reforms of the 1980s gained pace, what the cities
needed most was cheap labour. And so began what is often described as one of the greatest human migrations of all time.
Hundreds of millions of young men and women from the countryside poured into the factories and construction sites of coastal
boom towns. In many cities such as Shenzhen and Dongguan, the population of migrant workers now far outstrips those with an
urban hukou. And in China as a whole, migrants now make up about one third of the total urban population. See graph below.
Actual urban population and population with an urban hukou in China – as a percentage of total population in China
Source: Updated from Chan, Kam Wing, 2012. “Crossing the 50 Percent Population Rubicon: Can China Urbanize to Prosperity?” Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vo1.53, No.1, pp.63-86.
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As migrant workers flooded into the cities, it became clear that hukou restrictions on internal migration were not only
China’s cities: mega cities and population “clusters”
• 5 megacities of over 10 million
• versus 3 in India, 2 in the US, Japan, and Brazil
• 14 cities of over 5 million
• SH, BJ, TJ, SZ, DG, CD, HK, NJ, WH, SY, HZ, CQ, and TP
• 21% of world’s 5 million person cities
• 41 cities of over 2 million, 20% of the world total
_______________________________________________________
3 of the world's top 6 “City Clusters” (a.k.a. megalopolises)
The Pearl River Delta, 120 million:
• GZ, SZ, DG, HK, FS, ZH, MC
The Yangtze River Delta, 88 million:
• NJ, HZ, NB, SZ
The Bohai Rim, 66 million:
• BJ, TJ, SY, DL, and other cities
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Example: Pearl River Delta cluster cities (HK, SZ, GZ,
DG, MC, ZH, and others) have ~120mm (?) people
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New emphasis on big cities: Shanghai, Hong Kong, and
Beijing as China’s “global” cities
 Modern service economies
 Global reputations (connections between international strategy and
urban environment, e.g., “Better City, Better Life” in SH)
 Notable transport infrastructure: airports and trains rank high globally
 Symbolic structures (BJ Olympics 2008 and SH World Expo 2010)
 Cultural and entertainment sites
 BJ and SH developments speed past HK’s “West Kowloon Cultural
District”
__________________________________
 Economic and population growth attracts FDI and infrastructure
investment
 Educated labor force seeks affluent, exciting lifestyle
 Density of central business districts pushes populations to satelite
(suburban) residential pods
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China’s management of urbanization could be a global
model
 2025: over 850 million in cities
 2025: half the world’s 100 largest cities
 2050: over 1 billion in cities (¾ Chinese will live in a city)
________________________
 How to manage the infrastructure and environment?
 How to ensure that urban areas “livable”?
 Do the high-rise developments constitute social communities?
 Major cities are under unified authority…does this help enviro policy?
________________________
 See Economist’s “Asian Green City Index” (HK ~2; BJ/SH ~3-4)
 See Mercer study of “Top 50 Asian Cities”: no Chinese cities…yet,
Singapore and Tokyo are in
China’s cities will be – are? – a testing ground for new urban strategies and
policies; China has more funding than other developing nations for experiments
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Environment: air
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Air quality in China’s cities
 BJ and other cities are notorious for poor air quality
 Primary drivers are coal and oil combustion
 20+ times WHO recommended levels of PM (“fine particles,” 2.5micron
diameter or less, penetrate lungs and enter blood, 25 micrograms per
cubic meter considered safe, but 600+?)




Shut down airports, snarl traffic, close schools
Cause illness and premature death
Affluent leaving China?
Expats getting “health” compensation packages to live in China
New York Times, “Clearing the Air in China,” October 2013.
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Air quality in China’s cities
 RMB2 trillon (~US$330m) for various anti-pollution efforts announced 2014
 Major investments to limit CO2 emissions, which cause climate change
 Yet, carbon dioxide emissions rising about 8% per year
 Forceful regulation to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants
 Quickly effective between 2006-2010…
 Yet, atmosphere is complex physical and chemical system…
 Pollution was not controlled by sulfur dioxide reductions
More concern that China’s air affects global air quality
New York Times, “Clearing the Air in China,” October 2013.
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New directions in energy use to mitigate pollution
 New energy sources developed
 World’s largest wind power capacity
 World’s largest hydro-power capacity
 Nuclear capacity growing rapidly
 Increasing imports and production of natural gas (cleanest fossil fuel)
 Also, mandated scrubbers to abate sulfur dioxide; replaced old
power plants
 National targets in 5YPs and technology mandates (as in developed
economies)
 Prices on emissions via the market
 Cap-and-trade or simple carbon tax have been in testing and
discussion
 Present status of above?
New York Times, “Clearing the Air in China,” October 2013.
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In the 2000s, air quality was negatively affected by
China’s predominant use of coal for energy
Nuclear
Energy
1%
Hydro
electric
6%
Nuclear Wind
2%
Oil
20%
Others
Hydro
17%
Natural Gas
3%
Coalfired
81%
Coal
70%
70% of Energy from Coal, 2009
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Charts collected by Gang He, Stanford Univ,, for China Scope 2010 at MIT.
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81% of Electricity from Coal, 2009
Source: China Electricity Council
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Air pollution also causes acid rain
PH value
No data
Source: China Environment Strategic Plan, 2009; collected Gang He, Stanford Univ.
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An analysis by McKinsey of China’s energy policy targets
Policy and implementation will affect use
Source: McKinsey, “China’s green opportunities”; Gang He, Stanford Univ.
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Environment: water
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China has low available water per person1
 Total supply is 5th in the world, but per capita supply is low
 China has ~2100m3/person in “annual water flow” (India is lowest at
1150 m3/person)
 World average is 6800 m3/person, so China is ~1/3 world average
Comparison: US has 9450 m3/person
•
 Water stress as population and incomes rise (non-linear)
Water availability per person dropped by 25% from 1980 to 2005
•
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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Continued: China has low available water per person1
 Water availability….
• North availability is 1/6 the south
• North has 50+ percent of population but <15% of water resources
• Cities compete with agr for water
• Urban beautification campaigns to attract investment and high-skills
use much water
• Agr, food processing, paper and textiles are water-intense for
production
 Water shortages cost over US$1 billion a year for China’s economy
 400 of 600 of China’s cities experience water shortages
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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Water supply and water pollution are related problems1
 “Water Mining”: surface water, groundwater (north), aquifiers, using
desalinated water near coasts
•
•
In rural areas, mining groundwater leads to aridity and low or no
crop production
In urban areas, mining ground water changes the land foundation
resulting in infrastructure weaknesses
 China would like to produce 95% of grain requirements, but output
expected to decrease by 5-10% due to water scarcity and sub-optimal
crop yields due to air pollution
 Surface and ground water pollution affecting public health and
environment; difficult to recycle polluted water
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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Water supply and water pollution are related problems1
 Even 10-15 years ago, 38% of China’s rivers were polluted
• 70 percent of 5 of 7 major river systems are “grade iv” or worse, not
useful for any purpose
• 75 percent of water in urban rivers is unsuitable for drinking or fishing
• Half of water pollution comes from rural use (agr, livestock, rural
industries, etc.)
• Half of water pollution comes from industrial and municipal use
• Only half of urban waste water is treated
 Government monitoring and enforcement limited
• Selective application of laws, low fines, weak local enforcement,
officials have been judged on econ growth
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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How will China’s water needs change?1
 Key variables of water use are:
•
•
•
Urban and rural population composition
Per capita water demand by ruralites and urbanites
Production composition (agr, mfg, services)
 The urbanization growth is key threat
 The 27% growth in 1980-2005 caused:
•
•
Water diversion from downstream rural sites
Mining aquifiers at a faster rate than replenishment
^ unsustainable
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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Water use increases faster than population; with industry,
urbanization, & high incomes, use increases
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Environment: water use by sector
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How will China’s water needs change?1
 China has initiated a wide range of programs for water infrastructure
 Less success in controlling demand thru pricing and conservation
 Less success in coordination of water management across jurisdictions
 Encourage population in more water rich south (?)
 Consider public versus private use allocation
 Consider quotas to price-based sourcing
 Improve institutions for water management
 Increase urban water recycling
Source: Zmarak Shalizi, “Water and Urbanization,” from China Urbanizes.
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Energy
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China’s energy use
 Fastest growing energy market in the world
 Energy intensity (high) and per capita consumption (Urban=3 x Rural)
 Not yet seen use decline by move to services
 Intensity is high: coal is less efficient; ample supplies; transfer north to south
 Transport, urban residents, industry drive demand
 Directions and policy:
•
•
•
•
Improve efficiency: autos and fuel stds, residential, commercial
Improve pricing: oil (set on internat. levels) and electricity (kept low)
should reflect market
Increase renewable energy sources
Use modular, distributed system
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Total primary energy demand, past and projected, million tons of oil equivalent. Projections are from the
China’sEnergy
growth
of(IEA)
energy
use
has
been
underestimated,
International
Agency’s
2012 World
Energy
Outlook.
For China,
the IEA’s 2006 and 2002
shown
here
in millions
are
included for
reference.
of tons of oil-equivalents
CHINA
WEO2012
CHINA
WEO2006
US
EU
CHINA
WEO2002
INDIA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
BRAZIL
IEA 2002, 2006, 2012.
Source: IEA, 2002, 2006, 2012a, 2013a
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workplace safety, efficient resource management, or environmental protection. China accounted
for nearly 90% of global coal demand growth between 2002 and 2012, and China now produces
nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined (BP 2013)
China’s
energy sources, in international comparison
Table 1. Total Primary Energy Supply by Source
Share of total, 2010
OECD
20.1%
36.3%
24.4%
11.0%
2.1%
6.0%
US
22.7%
36.3%
25.1%
9.9%
1.0%
4.9%
Europe
16.5%
33.2%
25.6%
13.2%
2.6%
8.8%
Japan
23.1%
40.9%
17.3%
15.1%
1.4%
2.2%
Non-OECD
34.7%
25.6%
20.2%
1.7%
2.6%
15.2%
Russia
16.4%
19.8%
54.5%
6.4%
2.0%
1.1%
China
66.7%
17.5%
3.6%
0.8%
2.5%
9.0%
India
41.6%
23.4%
7.6%
1.0%
1.4%
24.9%
Other Asia
18.0%
33.5%
21.5%
1.4%
1.5%
24.0%
Middle East
0.4%
47.9%
51.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.1%
Africa
15.9%
21.0%
12.7%
0.5%
1.3%
48.3%
Latin America
3.6%
43.8%
21.4%
1.0%
9.9%
20.3%
Total
27.6%
32.2%
21.4%
5.6%
2.3%
10.9%
Gas
Nuclear Hydro
Other
Petroleum
Source: IEA, 2013a
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Natural
Coal
Renewables
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China’s overall approach to environmental challenges
 Technology innovation
 Interdisciplinary programs
 Good governance, policy experiments, using proven methods
 Corporate social responsibility and public participation
 Education: leadership and greenness of next generation
 International cooperation
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China topped new added wind capacity in 2009
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Total installed wind capacity
25.1
25
GW
20
15
10
5
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Gang He, Richard Morse. Data from China Renewable Energy Industries Association, Global Wind Energy Council
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China has been leading global photovoltaic
manufacture
Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc. Roadmap 2050: a practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe.
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Some conclusions…
•
China’s economic transformation and the opportunities….come with
challenges
•
Population matters: 1.36 billion population is the starting point of
China’s economy-energy-environment problem
•
China’s environmental challenges are unprecedented: if China’s can
address these problems, learning lab for the world
•
“Black cat, white cat…..green cat”?
•
China must lead a clean energy revolution, with the world’s
cooperation
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Solid waste: take E-waste as a case
•
Every day, the world dumps thousands of tons of e-waste on China,
where it ends up polluting communities and harming the public health
•
At least half of e-waste collected for “recycling” in North America gets
exported, according to environmental groups, and about 80% of that
goes to China
•
The United States, where up to 250 million electronics or almost 2.2
millions tons became obsolete in 2005, leads the trans-boundary,
hazardous traffic.
--By Michael Zhao
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Source: http://michaelzhao.net/eDump/
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北京大学, 工学院
PKU, College of Engineering
Globex
China’s Economy:
Growth and Global Connections
Urbanization, Environment (air, water),
and Energy
Susan Mays, Ph.D., contact smays999@yahoo.com
Globex Faculty Fellow, Peking University; Faculty, The University of Texas at Austin
Water: increasing eutrophication
booming in
middle and large
lakes
(Sq. km.)
Area of lake
eutrophication
expansion in
middle and large
lakes
mainly small lakes in
cities
Some are middle/large
lakes
占 35%
8700
5000
accountin
g for 35%
small lakes
in cities
600
占5%
135
1970s
accounting
for 5%
late 1980s
increasing trend of eutrophication
early 2000
Source: China Environment Strategic Plan 2009.
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