The Role of FMIS in Sustainable Forest Management Practices – comparisons and future direction "In the long term, economic sustainability depends on ecological sustainability.“ — “America’s Living Oceans” [Pew Oceans Report, 2003] AIS SIGGreen Pre-ICIS 2010 Virtual Workshop November 12-13, 2010 Ron Berger Seoul National University Department of Agricultural Economics & Rural Development Program in Regional Information Introduction – functions of the forest • Forests can provide – – – – – – • Estuaries and adjacent upland provide services for – – – – • Wood and fiber outdoor recreation stream flow erosion control atmospheric CO2 absorption habitat and biodiversity protection commercial fisheries residential space industrial and commercial structures absorption of waste products from local runoff and upstream sources along rivers and streams Environment indirectly support other biological and ecological production processes that yield value – – – – – nutrient recycling organic material decomposition soil fertility generation and renewal crop and natural vegetation pollination biological control of agricultural pests Adger et al., 1994, Pearce, 1993 2 Introduction – change in forest management paradigm • Forestry initially designed DSS for timber, cultivation and pest management (Reynolds, 2005) • • • • paradigm shift from sustained yield for maximized profits for timber production to sustaining multi-objective elements within the ecosystem (Thomas, 1995) Sustainable forest management requires integration of economic and ecological objectives (Li et al., 2000) Forest DSS today provide cultivation prescriptions for ecological objectives such as timber management, vegetative growth, wildlife, and forest health (Nute et al., 2004) Forest ecosystem management has more emphasis on socially acceptable, economically feasible management decisions (Reynolds, 2005) 3 Introduction – ecological, social and economic information • • GIS used in forest management apply spatial data, system queries and summary display (Rondeaux, 1991), but lack non-use economic value information Total economic value of a forest ecosystem needs to achieve a financial return (Adger et al. 1994; Pearce, 1993) • • • Non-economic values are important in environmental economics (Adamowicz et al. 1998), values needed by resource managers for decision-making (Englin et al. 1991) Regardless of the approach taken, CSR or stakeholder accountability, decisionmakers need access to ecological and socio-economic information for making proper decisions IS can shape beliefs about our environment (Melville, 2010) and play a critical role in assisting sustainable practices and policies 4 Objectives and research questions Proposition – Managing for sustainable forest ecosystems requires adequate estimates of use and non-use economic values Objective – review of existing FMIS (forest management information systems) that deal with multi-objective aspects required for forest ecosystem management Research Questions – • To what extent do FMIS deal with multi-objective analysis required for forest ecosystem management? • To what extent do FMIS analyze estimated use and non-use economic value? • To what extent do FMIS provide proper social and economic information for manager and stakeholder decision-making 5 Three levels of organization in ecosystem management decision-making process Decision Environment (goals, values, constraints) • • Organization and Decision-making Processes • Decision Support System • user DSS software Concept of forest ecosystem management has different value for key players and decision-makers Continually evolved by social, economic, political and policy implications Goal is long-term protection of the ecosystem and meeting demand of a growing population Requires effective multi-objective DSS for support, but not replace the reasoning of stakeholders in the decision-making process (social, economic, political and legal context) 6 Adapted from Rauscher, 1999 The decision environment Private landowners Special interest Public Industrial landowners • Scientist & specialist • Divided by management and ecological subsystems Network of decision-makers and stakeholders – Group negotiation process • Decision-makers (managers, specialists) determine objectives, evaluate risks and value – • Managerial decision-makers Decision support tools Ecological assessment • Ecosystem management DSS • Management subsystem Ecological subsystem (Adapted from Rauscher, 1999) Resources Neutral biophysical different values, goals and constraints social, economic, political pressures Values, goals and constraints are group negotiated – most difficult part of social process As goals and conditions change, so can value Stakeholder, public preferences, negotiation conflict management skills, and economic valuation – inclusive for understanding ecosystem management 7 Total Economic Value Non-Use Values Use Values Direct Use Values Indirect Use Values Direct consumption Functional benefits Future direct and indirect use values Regulating servicesflood prevention, water purification Preserving- watersheds, biodiversity All services- habitat and Biodiversity support Ex.- Old growth Redwoods In CA. As valued by a NY taxi driver Forests- water, fish, timber, carbon store Agriculture- food crops, biomass energy Option Values Bequest Values Value of leaving use- and non-use values for future generations Existence Values Value of knowledge of continued existence All services- habitat Supporting services support endangered species (panda, Irreversible change- blue whale, eagle Future damages No benefit expectation from global warming Values become increasingly intangible http://environmentaleconomics.wordpress.com/2010/05/02/valuationhttp://www.slidefinder.net/v/valuation_the_contingent_valuation_method/3190400; (Pearce 1993; Bateman et al., 2003) 8 Economic Valuation Techniques Methods Direct Observed behavior (revealed preference) Market Price Simulated Markets Travel Cost Indirect Adapted from Mitchell and Carson (1989) Hypothetical (stated preference) Contingent Valuation Attribute-based Models Hedonic Property Values Conjoint Analysis Hedonic Wage values Choice experiments Avoidance Expenditures Contingent Ranking 9 Economic Valuation Techniques • Direct Observational Methods – – – • Direct Hypothetical Methods – – • Contingent valuation method (CVM) - respondents asked what value they would place on some level of environmental change (change in risk of illness or loss of habitat) asks people directly how much they would be WTP for environmental services Indirect Observed Methods – – – • actual observable choices and/or goods that have market prices loss in value can be calculated easily if prices are directly observable estimated from prices in commercial markets – timber, biomass, agriculture Travel cost methods infer values of recreational resources by determining how much visitors spent getting to a site and then using this information to estimate a demand curve for that site Hedonic property value and hedonic wage approaches use regression analysis to infer environmental values from spending on goods which include those values Avoidance expenditures are expenditures necessary to take action to reduce the damage caused by flooding or pollution. These expenditures can be used as a lower bound estimate of damages Indirect Hypothetical Methods – – Contingent Ranking asks respondents to evaluate bundles of goods with varying levels of certain characteristics and to rank order the bundles Conjoint analysis presents respondents with bundles of attributes from which to choose 10 Results – comparisons of six forest ecosystem DSS System DSS approach Economic analysis Stakeholders CLAMS • simulation • employment income, timber value and production • contingent value of biodiversity LUCAS • simulation • econometric model outputs • economic and social information MRLAM • simulation • optimization • evaluation • simulation • evaluation • managers •Land owners Harvest • simulation • evaluation • managers • researchers • land owners? NED • simulation • evaluation WBAFA • managers • landowners • policy-makers • analysts • managers • land owners • managers • land owners • “diverse stakeholders”? • eco- socio-economic interactions • timber outputs • social negotiation/learning ability •natural resource managers • “clients”? CLAMS – Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling System LUCAS – Land-Use Change and Analysis System HARVEST MRLAM – Multi-Resource Land Allocation Model WBAFA – Willamette Basin Alternative Futures Analysis NED 11 Conclusions • • • • • • Forest ecosystem management is in its emerging stage, complicating traditional forest management practices Study aimed to describe and compare six advance DSS used in forest ecosystem management in terms of its capabilities, limitations and effectiveness in analyzing economic value and stakeholder participation Discussion, conclusions and DSS applicability are based on subjective analysis Some authors suggests that some of these models are simulations and the usage of the term “knowledge-based” DSS by other authors is unclear Even though total economic value is unclear because of the absence of non-use values, DSS should develop objective measures for its integration Economic values for direct use/direct consumption are evaluated in two models – • CLAMS and NED If the DSS offered any economic information, it was based on the market value of timber products rather than non-timber/environmental services 12 Conclusions • • • From a traditional forest management approach, it does not appear that the DSS evaluate economic options for alternative cultivation strategies From a forest ecosystem management approach, it does not appear that the DSS evaluate economic options for disturbance effects (soil, water, wildlife) Non-use and indirect-use value usage in the models are unclear – – – • • • CLAMS – claims to implement contingent value of biodiversity LUCAS – mentions economic and social information NED – claims eco-socio-economic interactions are evaluated; social negotiation/learning capabilities Future DSS should develop objective measures for the integration and evaluation of estimates for non-use and indirect-use values Although various DSS are implemented in various regions, the level of utilization for stakeholder and decision-maker negotiation is underdeveloped Extending systems to include economic value components could improve decisionmaking and stakeholder negotiation, and increase forest ecosystem sustainability 13 References • • • • • • • • • • • • • Adamowicz, W., Boxall, P., Williams, M., and Louviere J. (1998) Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments and Contingent Valuation, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 80, 1 , 64-75. Adger, N., Brown, K., Cervigni, R. and Moran, D. Towards Estimating Total Economic Value of Forests in Mexico, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, Working Paper GEC 94-21. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envAccounting/ceea/archive/Forest/TEV_Mexican_Forest.PDF Bateman, I. J. 2003. The Economics of Non-Market Goods and Resources. A Primer on Nonmarket Valuation. Champ, P. A., Boyle, K. J., and Brown, T. C. (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publishers. Englin, J., and Mendelsohn, R. 1991. A Hedonic Travel Cost Analysis for Valuation of Multiple Components of Site Quality: The Recreation Value of Forest Management. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 21, 275-290. Li, H., Gartner, D. I., Mou, P. and C. C. 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