Opportunity Lynchburg:
Lynchburg’s Strategy for
Jobs & Competitiveness
Presented to the Lynchburg Economic
Development Authority & City of Lynchburg
9 July 2013
Who We Are
Garner Economics provides
creative, strategic and
executable value to companies,
communities and organizations
globally.
We are specialists as corporate
site location advisors and
economic development
strategists.
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Some Clients
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Our Philosophy On Achieving
Success
Effective Economic Development Strategies
Take a Holistic Approach
• Economic Development =
wealth building
• How do you achieve economic
development?
 Hunters
(recruitment, including
tourism)
 Gardeners (entrepreneurial)
 Nurturers (support existing
businesses)
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Project Plan &
Methodology
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Project Process
• Competitive analysis of the City, US, VA, Pitt County (NC), Hall
County (GA)
• Stakeholder input on the business climate of the City
Discovery • Assets and Challenges of the City
Cluster
analysis and
industry
targets
Observations,
Conclusions
and Rec’s
• Industry Specialization
• Cluster Analysis
• Organizational
• Product Improvement
• Product Marketing
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Public Input
• Garner Economics held four focus group
sessions with City stakeholders to solicit their
perceptions and opinions of Lynchburg’s
business climate
• Forty-four people participated
– Large employers (more than 250 employees)
– Medium and small employers (less than 250
employees)
– Entrepreneurs, and
– Academia (K-12 and higher education)
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Key Themes
Assets
Challenges
• Quality of Place
• Industry Foundations
• Lack of Connections
• Aging or Insufficient
Infrastructure
• Workforce
• Lack of Amenities
• Some local government
structure
• Economic
Development Delivery
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Assets and Challenges Assessment
Garner Economics analyzed the City of Lynchburg against
sixty–four community and regional factors—the same that are
used when conducting a site/community evaluation for a
company that is considering a new location, expansion,
consolidation or closure.
Challenge is defined as a weakness of a specific variable
determined by Garner Economics either objectively or
subjectively. A challenge could be an impediment to economic
development success.
Neutral is defined as a variable that is not a challenge to
economic development but is considered normal in the realm
of economic analysis.
Asset is defined as a variable that is ranked exemplary and as
such should be marketed or noted as such.
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Assets and Challenges Assessment
The City of Lynchburg has many advantages, but there
are still many areas in which the City could consider
further differentiating itself.
Asset
17
Challenge
27
Neutral
20
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Results of 64 variables assessed
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Strengths
Access to Markets
Resources
• Rail service
• General aviation airport capable of
handling corporate aircraft
• Broadband
• Availability of forestry products
• Cost of electricity for industrial use
• Availability of water/cost of
water/sewer
Labor
Capital
• Cost of labor
• Quality of labor-management
relationships
• Within 1/2 hour of major
university/college
• Availability of engineering
program(s)
• Availability of low-interest loans
for small business
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Government Impact
• Availability of adequate water and
wastewater treatment capacity
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Strengths
Quality of Place
• Cost of housing
• Level of cultural activity
• Availability of recreational
opportunities
• Availability of adequate medical
facilities
• Quality of local restaurants
• Appearance of the Central Business
District
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Weaknesses
Access to Markets
• Not connected to Interstate
highways
• Not well positioned to serve
international markets
• No port access (inland port)
Labor
Resources
• Lack of availability of agricultural
products for food processing
• Lack of availability of minerals
• Lack of availability of high value
business and professional services
• Lack of skilled industrial workers
• Lack of technicians and scientists
• Lack of availability of managerial
personnel
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Weaknesses
Economic Development
Space
• Inadequate level of professional staff
• Low level of cooperation between
various organizations involved in
economic development activity
• Low level of awareness of
community regarding economic
development
• Inadequate level of funding for local
economic development program
• Lack of availability of fully served and
attractive industrial sites
• Lack of availability of fully served and
attractive office sites
• Few reasonably priced sites
• Lack of availability of suitable
industrial space
• Lack of availability of suitable office
space
Capital
• Lack of availability of venture capital
from local sources for business
startups
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Weaknesses
Government Impact on
Business
• Condition and maintenance of local
streets
• Level of traffic-carrying capacity of
local streets and highways
• Business permitting procedures and
costs
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Quality of Place
• Lack of availability of executive-level
housing
• Lack of availability of moderate-cost
housing
• Lack of availability of major
shopping facilities
• Crime (as reported by the FBI)
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Lynchburg’s
Competitive
Assessment
• Examined the economic position
and competitiveness of
Lynchburg
• Compared Lynchburg to itself
over time, as well as to Hall
County, GA, Pitt County, NC, the
nation and the Commonwealth
of Virginia.
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Dashboard Indicators
Three Main Sections
• Demographic & Labor
Dynamics
• Economic Dynamics
• Local Specialization,
Competitiveness & Growth
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Demographic and Labor Dynamics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Population and Growth
Age
Crime
Education/ACT Scores
STEM Completions
College Enrollment
Worker Flows
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2000-2010 Population Change (%)
United
States
9.7%
Virginia
13.0%
28.7%
Hall
Pitt
25.7%
Lynchburg
15.7%
0%
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Source: US Census Bureau, Garner Economics
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Estimated Sources of Population
Change
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
(250)
(500)
(750)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Natural
Domestic
International
Source: US Census Bureau, Garner Economics
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Crime Rates per 100,000
Residents 2011
3,500
3,228.7
2,908.7
3,000
2,474.6
2,500
2,249.6
2,000
1,500
1,193.2
1,000
500
363.5
155.5
0
170.0 196.7
Violent
Lynchburg
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386.3
Property
Hall
Pitt
Virginia
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Garner Economics
US
21
Educational Attainment: % Total Population
Age 25+
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than 9th 9th to 12th
grade
grade, no
diploma
High school Some college, Associate's
graduate
no degree
degree
Lynchburg
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Virginia
Bachelor's
degree
Graduate or
professional
degree
US
Source: US Census Bureau, Garner Economics, 2009-2011 3-Year Estimates,
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Educational Attainment: % Total Population
Age 25+
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than 9th
grade
Source: US Census Bureau,
Garner Economics, 2009-2011
3-Year Estimates,
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9th to 12th
grade, no
diploma
High school
graduate
Some college,
no degree
Lynchburg
Hall
Associate's
degree
Bachelor's
degree
Graduate or
professional
degree
Pitt
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Annual STEM Completions-2011
88
90
80
70
60
47
50
40
32
31
30
22
20
9
10
0
0
0
Biological &
Biomedical
Sciences
Computer &
Information
Sciences
Engineering
Associate's degree
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10
7
Engineering
Technologies
0
Mathematics
& Statistics
0
Physical Sciences
Bachelor's degree
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Garner Economics,
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Worker Flows
40,000
35,000
30,000
Employed in Lynchburg,
but Living Outside
(in-commuters)
25,000
20,000
Living & Employed in
Lynchburg
Living in Lynchburg, but
Employed Outside
(out-commuters)
15,000
10,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: US Census Bureau, Garner Economics
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Economic Dynamics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Wages
Income
Self-Employment
Employment Trends
Unemployment
Cost of Living
Broadband Access
Air Connectivity
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Average Wage Per Job - 2011
$60,000
$50,657
$50,000
$40,000
$48,043
$39,294
$39,761
$38,032
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Lynchburg
Hall
Pitt
Virginia
US
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Garner Economics
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10 Year Change in Average Wage
Per
Job
(2001=0)
$3,500
Virginia
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
US
Pitt
Hall
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
-$500
Lynchburg
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, adjusted for inflation
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Total Employment 12-Month %
Change
Recession
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
2006
2007
2008
Lynchburg
2009
Virginia
2010
2011
2012
US
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Garner Economics
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Total Employment 12-Month %
Change
Recession
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
2006
2007
2008
2009
Lynchburg
2010
Hall
2011
2012
Pitt
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Garner Economics
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Broadband Rankings 2011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Wireless
Speed
Wireline
Access
Wireline
Fiber
Hall
Wireline
DSL
Wireless Wireline Wireless Average
Access Providers Providers
Pitt
Lynchburg
Source: National Telecommunications and Information Administration
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Airport Statistics 2012
Passengers
Arrivals
Freight/Mail (lb.)
Number
Rank
Lbs.
Rank
Lynchburg Regional/Preston
Glenn Field (LYH)
78,000
228
17,000
311
Pitt Greenville (PGV)
61,000
248
56,000
522
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Garner Economics
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Local Specialization, Competitiveness &
Growth
• Industry Sector Change
• Industry Earnings
• Occupational Change
• Occupational Earnings
• Cluster Specialization &
Growth
• Cluster Competitiveness
• Occupational Specialization
& Growth
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www.garnereconomics.com
Five-Year Employment Change by Major
Industry
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
1,554
Educational Services (Private)
Health Care & Social Assistance
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Management of Companies
Information
Transportation & Warehousing
Utilities
Accommodation & Food Services
Retail Trade
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Administrative & Support Services
Manufacturing
1,633
940
160
143
96
88
(10)
(18)
(28)
(119)
(166)
(213)
(275)
(522)
(921)
(4,289)
2007-2012 Source: EMSI, Garner Economics
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Cluster Specialization & Growth
6
At-Risk
Education & Knowledge
Creation
Competitive
Degree of Specialization
5
4
Machinery Mfg.
3
Chemicals & Chemical
Based Products
2
Printing
& Publishing
1
Energy & Development
Transportation &
Logistics
(500)
Business & Financial
Services
Healthcare
0
Agribusiness, Food
Processing & Technology
Arts, Entertainment,
Recreation & Visitor
Industries
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Declining
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2,500
Emerging
2007-2012: Five Year Employment Change
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Optimal Targets
• Based on the site-specific
characteristics of Lynchburg
• Four industry targets chosen
based on best match with
unique competitive
advantages in the area.
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Optimal Targets for the City of
Lynchburg
Engineering &
Specialized
Services
 Engineering Services
 Geophysical Surveying
and Mapping Services
 Industrial Design
Services
 Environmental
Consulting Services
 Other Scientific and
Technical Consulting
Services
 R&D in Physical and
Engineering Sciences.
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Niche
Advanced
Headquarters &
Materials
Association
Management
Subsectors
 Pharmaceutical
Preparation Mfg.
 In-Vitro Diagnostic
Substance Mfg.
 Biological Product Mfg.
 Plastics Bag and Pouch
Mfg.
 Plastics Packaging Film
and Sheet Mfg.
 Small Corporate,
Subsidiary, and Regional
Managing Offices
 Business Associations
 Professional
Organizations
 Grantmaking
Foundations
 Environment,
Conservation, and
Wildlife Organizations
Aircraft
Modification &
Repair
 Aircraft Overhaul &
Conversion
 Aircraft Engine Rebuild &
Overhaul
 Aircraft Inspection.
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Engineering & Specialized Services
Advantages to Lynchburg
Link to Prospect Demands
• The Architecture & Engineering
group has the highest degree of
local specialization.
• Average target subsector national
earnings of $78,713.
• Average target subsector five-year
forecasted growth of 17%
• 147 annual postsecondary
completions in critical fields from
Lynchburg Colleges and
Universities
• Strongest annual STEM Associate’s
degree completions are in
Engineering Technologies.
• Presence of Babcock & Wilcox
Technical Services, Areva NP, Hurt
& Proffitt, and Wiley|Wilson.
• Largest absolute industry jobs
gains in Lynchburg came from
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services.
• Strong existing pool of highdemand occupations.
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Advanced Materials
Advantages to Lynchburg
Link to Prospect Demands
• Most in-demand occupations
match the area’s leading level of
educational attainment .
• Average target subsector 2012
national earnings of $101,898.
• Production occupational group has
a high degree of local
specialization in Lynchburg.
• Average target subsector five-year
forecasted growth of 19.9%
• Low rate of unionization.
• Presence of Tri Tech Labs, C.B.
Fleet, Harrington Corporation.
• Low relative cost of electricity for
industrial use.
• Strong existing pool of highdemand occupations in Lynchburg
region area.
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Niche Headquarters & Association
Management
Advantages to Lynchburg
Link to Prospect Demands
• Average target subsector 2012
national earnings of $74,746.
• 1,886 annual postsecondary
completions in critical fields from
Lynchburg Colleges and
Universities.
• Strong existing pool of highdemand occupations in Lynchburg.
• Significant university and college
presence.
• Low relative cost of labor.
• High relative broadband rank,
measuring access and capacity.
• Quality of Place assets.
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Aircraft Modification & Repair
Advantages to Lynchburg
Link to Prospect Demands
• Average target subsector 2012
national earnings of $96,916 .
• 104 annual postsecondary
completions in critical fields from
Lynchburg Colleges and
Universities.
• General aviation airport capable of
handling corporate aircraft.
• Aviation Maintenance Technician
Program at Liberty University.
• Quality of Place assets.
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Telling the Story
Executing Effectively
To Develop Transformational
Assets and Capitalize on
Existing Ones
Observations,
Conclusions &
Recommendations
• The City must be proactive in
shaping Lynchburg’s economic
future.
• Recommendations are from a
site-selector perspective to
suggest ways to increase
economic opportunities in the
City.
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Recommendations
To ensure that there are sufficient economic opportunities
for its residents and that Lynchburg can attract high-quality
talent and jobs, the City must be proactive in shaping
Lynchburg’s economic future.
Strategies
• Execute effectively to develop transformational
assets and capitalize on existing ones
• Tell the City’s story more effectively and to be a
better spokesperson for the economic dynamism of
the area.
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Develop transformational assets and
capitalize on existing ones
Strategy
Focus on areas that will directly impact economic growth
and ensure Lynchburg is in a competitive position to attract,
retain, and grow the types of companies and industries it
desires
Product Improvement Areas
• Develop a hangar for the
Aircraft Modification and
Repair/Aircraft Assembly target
• Community visioning effort
• One-stop permitting and
licensing
• Free wireless in the CBD
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• Develop a real estate portfolio
for industrial development
• Airline subsidy
• Grow the talent pipeline
• Cultivate entrepreneurship
• Expand and promote EB-5
• Promote performing /visual
arts
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Executing Effectively
Strategy
Create an organizational structure that allows the OED
to most effectively support and encourage economic
development in the City
Tactics
• Staff the appropriate number of economic
development personnel
• Fully fund the City’s economic development
office by limiting outside contributions to
other organizations
• Develop an incentive policy
• Create sustainable funding for infrastructure
and economic development initiatives
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Proposed OED Structure
Director
Office Manager
Assistant
Director
Special Projects
(part-time)
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Telling the Story
The EDA/OED has the opportunity to tell the City’s
story more effectively and be a better spokesperson for
the economic dynamism of the area
Strategy & Tactics
Tell the City’s economic development story more effectively to
the most appropriate audiences
•
•
•
•
Image Survey
Unified Brand
Enhance the City/EDA website
Lead Generation and Business
Target Profiling
• Familiarization (FAM) events
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• Develop marketing collateral,
media, and public relations
efforts
• Communicate
• Establish target industry
working groups
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Performance Benchmarks
An important component of this strategy’s implementation is a
plan to evaluate performance. Lynchburg will be joining the
ranks of other high-performing, “best of class” economic
development organizations that have developed successful
benchmarking systems to monitor their economic performance.
Metrics will:
• Provide the OED/EDA an opportunity to demonstrate the
positive results of their efforts
• Shed some light on the City’s strengths and weaknesses in
the competition to attract and retain high-value employers
and create wealth-generating entrepreneurs
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Performance Benchmarks: Jobs
Performance Metric
How to Measure the Metric
 New direct jobs created
 New indirect jobs created
Job Creation
Net Employment
Business Incubation Services
New Private Investment
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 Retained jobs (as it relates to a
potential employers moving and jobs
being reduced/eliminated)
 Total number employed per year vs.
state average and compared to the
previous year
 Number of services used per year
 Number of exits from incubators
 Total amount of new investment per
year
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Performance Benchmarks: Impacts
Performance Metric
How to Measure the Metric
 Dollar value of tax incentives per year
 Number of transactions
Incentives
Average Wage
 Economic impact analysis of the
investment related to the
incentive/inducement
 Percent of county average wage
Gross Regional Product
 Annual dollars
Tax Revenue Generated
 Annual revenue stream
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Performance Benchmarks: Visibility
Performance Metric
*Amount of non-paid publicity
*Suspect and prospect inquiries and
visits
How to Measure the Metric
 Column inches generated
 Social media mentions
 Number of inquiries about the region
from potential investors (suspect)
 Number of company or potential visits
to the region (prospects)
 Number of media or personal
promotions
* Denotes those metrics that the OED/EDA will have direct influence over.
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Conclusion
By focusing its efforts on these
strategies, the City of Lynchburg and
its EDA will be able to proactively
generate leads and prospects.
Specifically, the EDA will need to:
• Take the lead in proposing state legislation for a sustainable
economic development funding mechanism
• Promote the creation of a hangar to attract high paying jobs
within the aircraft modification and repair sector
• Create one-stop shop for permitting and licensing to
expedite the permitting process
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Thank you!
This plan benefited greatly from the willingness
and contributions of the City of Lynchburg’s Office
of Economic Development and the many
stakeholders who took part in the focus groups.
Special thanks to:
• Lynchburg City Council
• Lynchburg Economic Development Authority
• Kim Payne, City Manager
• Marjette Upshur
• Brian P. Gleason
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Questions?
jay@garnereconomics.com
tom@garnereconomics.com