INTRODUCTION TO CORPORATE FINANCE SECOND EDITION Lawrence Booth & W. Sean Cleary Prepared by Ken Hartviksen & Jared Laneus Chapter 20 Cost of Capital 20.1 Financing Sources 20.2 The Cost of Capital 20.3 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs 20.4 The Effects of Operating and Financial Leverage 20.5 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity 20.6 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity 20.7 The Cost of Capital and Investment Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 2 Learning Objectives 20.1 Explain how the three major problem areas in finance: valuation, cost of capital, and determining cash flows are related. 20.2 Calculate the weighted average cost of capital and explain its significance. 20.3 Estimate the cost of capital and its non-equity components. 20. 4 Explain how operating and financial leverage affect a firm’s risk. 20. 5 Apply the discounted cash flow model to estimate the equity cost and describe its advantages and disadvantages. 20.6 Estimate the cost of equity using risk-based models and describe the advantages and limitations of these models. 20.7 Explain how the WACC interacts with the investment decision framework introduced in chapters 13 to 17. Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 3 Financing Sources • • • • • Table 20-1 illustrates the basic structure of a firm’s balance sheet This is a snapshot of a firm’s financial position at a point in time Assets are things the firm owns Liabilities are sources of financing obtained from lenders Equity is the shareholders’ investment in the business plus any retained earnings Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 4 Financing Sources • Table 20-2 shows an example of a balance sheet • Financial structure is the whole right-hand side of the balance sheet, and includes both short and long term sources of financing • Capital structure is how the firm finances its invested capital, such as bank loans, long-term debt, common stock and retained earnings. It excludes accruals and accounts payable (i.e., short term liabilities that are not strictly debt contracts which spontaneously change in response to the operations of the business). Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 5 Interpreting Balance Sheets • Balance sheets are prepared in accordance with GAAP and most often represent historical costs which may not be relevant for current decision making purposes. • An analysis of reported data should include ratios such as the debt-toequity ratio. In the example provided in Table 20-2, the firm has $50 of short term debt, $650 of long term debt and $1,000 of shareholders’ equity. This gives a debt-to-equity ratio of ($50 + $650) / $1,000 = 0.7. • Book values can be converted into market values by multiplying the market-to-book (M/B) ratio by the book value • Suppose that the market value of the shareholders’ equity of the firm in the example provided in Table 20-2 was $2,500 instead of the historical cost $1,000. Suppose also that the market values of the total debt is still $700. This makes the debt-to-equity ratio $700 / $2,500 = 0.28 which is much lower than the ratio when using the historical cost measure of the shareholders’ equity. Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 6 Valuation for a Perpetuity • Equation 20-1 reprises what you learned in Chapter 5 about how to determine the present value of an infinite stream of equal, periodic cash flows (i.e., a perpetuity). Equation 20-2 rearranges to solve for the required return and is also known as the earnings yield; Equation 20-3 rearranges to solve for the forecast earnings • The earnings yield is not normally used as the investor’s required return because it simply measures the forecast earnings as a proportion of the current market price ignoring growth opportunities X X S Ke X Ke S Ke S where: • S = the present value of the perpetuity • X = the forecast annual earnings • Ke = the investor’s required return Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 7 Setting Performance Targets • Given market values and required rates of return, it is possible to establish performance targets for management to sustain market values • For a firm financed by both debt and equity, the firm must plan to earn sufficient returns to cover the interest cost on debt plus the required return for shareholders • Working back from these requirements, we can forecast the level of sales the firm must earn in order to achieve these operating results which sets a performance target for management • Suppose that the required return is 6% on debt and 12% on equity; Table 20-3 shows the forecast income statement that establishes a performance target for management Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 8 Setting Performance Targets • Once sales performance targets are established, other targets can be determined through the application of ratios • Since equity, in this case, is a perpetuity, we can express the price per share using Equation 20-4: P EPS ROE BVPS Ke Ke • Dividing both sides of Equation 20-4 by book value per share (BVPS) derives the market-to-book (M/B) ratio given in Equation 20-5: P ROE BVPS Ke • Notice that if the return on equity exceeds the investor’s required return, then the price of the stock will rise above book value. • This is how a financial manager can add value Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 9 The Cost of Capital • The overall market value of the firm is the market value of its debt, preferred equity and common equity sources of financing: V=D+P+S • In our example, V = $3,200, EBIT = $542 and the tax rate is 40%. Therefore, after tax EBIT is $325.20. • We can represent EBIT as ROI × IC, and this allows us to use Equation 20-6 to determine the value of the firm and Equation 20-7 to find the capital cost of an all equity firm: V ROI IC ROI IC $325.20 Ka 10.16% Ka V $3,200 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 10 The Cost of Capital • We can now substitute the component costs for both debt and equity to develop a general equation for (WACC) as the weighted average of the component costs, as in Equations 20-8 and 20-9 ROI IC K e S K d D(1 T ) K P P Ka Ka V S P D WACC K e K P K d (1 T ) V V V Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 11 Estimating Market Values • The total market value of equity (the market capitalization) is the price per share multiplied by the number of shares outstanding, as in Equation 20-10: S P0 n • The market price for a preferred share is the annual preferred dividend divided by the preferred shareholder’s required return (as in Equation 20-11), and the market capitalization of both common and preferred stock is determined using Equation 20-10. DP P0 kP Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 12 Estimating Market Values • The market value of bonds differs from book value only if the required rates of return in the market have changed since the bond’s original issue and do not currently equal the coupon rate. • Knowing the term to maturity, the coupon rate and the bondholder’s required return, we can determine the market value of the bonds with Equation 20-12: I B kb 1 F 1 n n ( 1 k ) ( 1 k ) b b • Determine the total market value of debt by multiplying the market value of an individual bond by the number of bonds outstanding Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 13 Market Values Weights • In order to calculate the market value weights required to calculate WACC (D/V, P/V and S/V), you will need to know the total market value of debt, preferred stock and common stock Example: Suppose a firm has 1 million common shares outstanding trading for $21.50 each and 4,000 long term bonds trading for $950 each. The firm has no preferred stock. Calculate the market value weights of each source of financing. • These weights, D/V = 15.02% and S/V = 84.98%, can be used to calculate the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Type Bonds Common stock Market Price Number Outstanding Total Market Value Market Value Weight $950.00 4,000 $3,800,000 15.02% $21.50 1,000,000 $21,500,000 84.98% $25,300,000 100.00% Total Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 14 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs • Table 20-4 illustrates average issuing costs for different forms of capital • Issuing or floatation costs are incurred by a firm when it raises new capital through the sale of securities in the primary market, and include: • Underwriting discounts paid to the investment dealer • Direct costs associated with the issue including legal and accounting costs • The net proceeds of the sale of each security is therefore less than the price paid by each investor (this is called a financing wedge) • Therefore, the component cost of capital exceeds the investor’s required return Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 15 WACC Versus Marginal Cost of Capital • The marginal cost of capital (MCC) is the weighted average cost of the next dollar of financing to be raised • At low levels of financing, WACC = MCC • But, as a firm raises more and more capital in a given year, it will exhaust the supply of lower cost sources of capital and then have to access marginally higher cost sources of capital • Therefore, MCC increases with the amount of capital to be raised Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 16 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs: The Cost of Debt • The cost of debt is a function of: • The investor’s required rate of return • The tax-deductibility of interest expenses • The floatation costs incurred to issue new debt • If you know the debt investor’s required rate of return, the corporate tax rate and the floatation cost percentage for debt, you can estimate the cost of debt as: K d (1 T ) Cost of Debt 1 fd Example: If the investor requires a 10% return, 40% is the corporate tax rate and there is a 3% floatation cost, then the firm’s cost of debt is: K d (1 T ) 0.1(1 0.4) Cost of Debt 6.19% 1 fd 1 0.03 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 17 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs: The Cost of Debt • The bond valuation formula can also be adjusted, as in Equation 2013, for the tax deductibility of interest expenses and the net proceeds the firm would receive on the sale of one bond after floatation costs. Then, solve for the rate that causes the formula to equal the market price. I (1 T ) 1 F Net proceeds 1 n K i (1 K i ) (1 K i ) n Where Ki = the after-tax and after-floatation cost of debt Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 18 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs: The Cost of Preferred Shares • If you know the preferred share investor’s required rate of return and the floatation cost percentage for preferred share financing, you can estimate the cost of preferred shares as: Investor' s Required Return Cost of Preferred Equity 1 fP Example: If an investor requires a 14% return and floatation costs are 5%, then the preferred shares cost is: 0.14 Cost of Preferred Equity 14.74% 1 0.05 • Note that preferred share dividends are paid out of after-tax earnings, so there are no taxation effects on the preferred share component cost of capital Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 19 Estimating the Non-Equity Component Costs: The Cost of Preferred Shares • Alternatively, as in Equation 20-14, the component cost of preferred shares can be found by dividing the preferred share dividend by the net proceeds or the selling price of each preferred share less the floatation costs per share: DP KP NP Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 20 The Effects of Operating and Financial Leverage • Leverage is the increased volatility in operating income over time, created by the use of fixed costs in lieu of variable costs • Leverage multiplies both profits and losses • There are two types: operating leverage and financial leverage • Both types of leverage have the same effect on shareholders, but are accomplished in very different ways and for different strategic purposes Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 21 The Effects of Operating and Financial Leverage • Operating leverage is the increased volatility in operating income caused by fixed operating costs. This is commonly accomplished by a firm choosing to become more capital intensive and less labor intensive, thereby increasing operating leverage. • Financial leverage is the increased volatility in operating income caused by fixed financial costs and can be increased by taking on financial obligations with fixed annual claims on cash flow (e.g., bonds or preferred stock), or using the proceeds from the debt to retire equity • Shareholders bear the added risks associated with the use of leverage • The higher the use of leverage, the higher the risk to the shareholder Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 22 The Effects of Operating and Financial Leverage Operating Leverage Advantages Disadvantages • Magnification of profits to shareholders • Operating efficiencies, such as faster production, fewer errors and higher quality, usually result in increasing productivity • • • • Magnification of losses to shareholders Higher break even point High capital cost of equipment Equipment can be illiquid Financial Leverage Advantages Disadvantages • Magnification of profits to shareholders • Lower cost of capital at low to moderate levels of financial leverage because interest expense is tax deductible • Magnification of losses to shareholders • Higher break even point • At higher levels of financial leverage, the low after-tax cost of debt is offset by other effects such as bankruptcy and agency costs Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 23 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • To this point we have been valuing stock as a no-growth perpetuity, which means we are assuming that the current dividend will be the same in each future year • Table 20-8 illustrates the importance of growth: on average, 62.22% of the market value of this sample of firms could be attributed to growth opportunities Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 24 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • The Gordon, or constant growth, model assumes constant growth in the stream of dividends, as in Equation 20-15 • The price per share today equals the next expected dividend divided by the shareholder’s required return less the long-run constant growth rate • Equation 20-15 can be rearranged into Equation 20-16 to solve for the investor’s required rate of return D1 D1 P0 Ke g Ke g P0 • This shows that the investor’s required rate of return consists of two components: expected dividend yield and the long-run growth rate • This is known as the cost of internal equity, or the cost of retained earnings where the firm does not need to incur floatation costs Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 25 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • The Gordon, or constant growth, model can be modified to solve for the cost of new equity by using the net proceeds (NP) the firm receives for each new share sold after floatation costs, as in Equation 20-17: D1 Ke g NP • The constant growth model can only be used in cases where it is reasonable to assume that the growth rate can be sustained in the very long term, which usually means for large, mature companies that already pay a significant dividend • But, the constant growth model should not be used for smaller, more rapidly growth firms where higher current growth rates are experienced which are not expected to be sustained in the long term Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 26 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Equation 20-18 shows one way to estimate the constant growth rate is the sustainable growth method: multiplying the firm’s retention ratio by the forecast return on equity: g ROE b • Substituting the sustainable growth rate into the Gordon model gives Equation 20-19: D P0 1 K e b ROE • We can rewrite this as Equation 20-20 by recognizing that the expected dividend is the expected earnings per share (X) multiplied by the dividend payout ratio (which is one minus the retention ratio): P0 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition X 1 (1 b) K e b ROE 27 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity Conclusion: • A firm’s share price is determined by: • • • • Forecast earnings per share Dividend payout Return on equity Shareholders’ required return • The higher the growth rate, the higher the share price because larger future dividends and earnings are forecast • We can rearrange Equation 20-20 into Equation 20-21 by substituting in alternative expressions for the dividend and growth rate: D1 X 1 (1 b) Ke g b ROE P0 P0 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 28 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Table 20-9 shows the use of Equation 20-21 to estimate the cost of internal equity for three different growth scenarios • Notice that sustainable growth rate increases with return on equity, but that expected dividend yield falls Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 29 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Table 20-10 demonstrates that the cost of capital is a hurdle rate, or the return on an investment required to create value; below this value an investment will destroy value • When a firm retains earnings and reinvests them at lower rates than what shareholders require, the value of the firm falls • The key to share price growth is the reinvest earnings at rates greater than the cost of capital Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 30 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Growing firms reinvest in projects that offer rates equal to its cost of capital (ROE = Ke) • Growth firms reinvest earnings at rates higher than the cost of capital (ROE > Ke) • This is the reason that earnings yield is not an appropriate estimate of the firm’s cost of capital • What is relevant is not whether dividends or earnings are growing, but rather whether the firm is investing at rates of return greater than the cost of capital • This means the firm should be investing in projects with positive NPVs (IRRs > cost of capital) Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 31 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Multi-stage growth models, such as the multi-stage dividend discount model, account for different levels of growth in earnings and dividends over time • Since there is no limit to the number of growth stages one can forecast for a given company, this is a very flexible model • Equation 20-22 shows a two-stage growth model that breaks price into two components: • Present value of existing opportunities (PVEO) • Present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) ROE BVPS Inv ROE 2 K e P0 Ke 1 Ke Ke P0 PVEO PVGO Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 32 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • PVGO is discounted to the present by one year because it represents an incremental investment decision today that will not result in the first cash flow until one year from now • PVGO adds a perpetual amount represented by the difference between the ROE2 and the cost of equity • If ROE2 = Ke then the future investment adds nothing to the value of the firm • If ROE2 > Ke then the future investment adds value to the firm ROE BVPS Inv ROE 2 K e Ke 1 Ke Ke P0 PVEO PVGO P0 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 33 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity Figure 20-1 shows four scenarios: 1. Star – high PVEO and high PVGO 2. Cash Cow – high PVEO and low PVGO 3. Turnaround – low PVEO and high PVGO 4. Dog – low PVEO and low PVGO Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 34 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • The Fed Model is used by the U.S. Federal Reserve to estimate whether the stock market is over or under valued and is given in Equation 20-23: Vactual Vactual VFed Exp( EPS ) /( K TBond 1.0%) • Aggregate valuation across the entire market is easier because unsystematic risk attached to individual stocks is eliminated as a factor • The Fed’s estimate of the market value is the expected EPS on the S&P 500 index divided by the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds less 1% • We can rearrange Equation 20-23 into Equation 20-24: V Fed Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition Exp( EPS ) K TBond 1.0% 35 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • All of the data required for this model is readily available, so this estimate of value is easy to produce and track over time, as shown in Figure 20-2: Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 36 Growth Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Equation 20-25 is a variation of the Fed model that can be used to determine if the market is fairly valued: X PS & P 500 K TBond 1.0% • When the earnings yield on the S&P 500 (the market proxy) is equal to the long-term Treasury bond yield less 1% the market is fairly valued • The earnings yield is the appropriate discount rate for the no-growth (perpetual) case, whereas we would expect the market as a whole to grow at the nominal GDP growth rate • The required return on the market as a whole is, then, the long-term Treasury yield plus an approximately 4% risk premium (5% nominal GDP less 1%), and can serve as a useful benchmark for financial managers as they attempt to estimate their own firm’s cost of capital Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 37 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) can be used to estimate the return required by common shareholders, particularly in situations where discounted cash flow methods will perform poorly (i.e., growth firms) • CAPM estimates a market determined estimate, because the risk-free rate (RF) is the benchmark return and is measured directly, and the market risk premium (MRP) is taken from current market estimates • Equation 20-26 shows the CAPM is a single-factor model, so we estimate the required return on equity based on an estimate of the systematic risk of the firm as measured by the firm’s beta coefficient: K e RF MRP e • The yield on 91-day Treasury bills is often used for RF • But MRP is harder to forecast: one common approach is to use an estimate of the current expected MRP based on a long-run average Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 38 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Table 20-11 shows the returns on the S&P/TSX Composite Index annually between 2003 and 2008 • Table 20-12 gives long-term return statistics for several types of asset classes Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 39 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Table 20-13 shows TD Economics’ long-run forecasts for the returns on different asset classes • Note that the Scotia Universe Bond Index is a long-term bond index that contains Canadian government and corporate bonds Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 40 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Figure 20-3 shows that the estimated betas for the major sub-indices of the S&P/TSX have varied significantly over time Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 41 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Table 20-14 shows the data charted in Figure 20-3 Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 42 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity Figure 20-3 and Table 20-14 show the following: • The IT sub index shows rapidly increasing betas while other subindices show relatively constant betas • The weighted average of all betas is, by definition, the market beta of 1.0 • If one sub index is changing, that change alone affects all others in the opposite direction • During the internet bubble of the late 1990s, rapid growth in the IT sector caused its beta to change • When betas are measured over the period of a sector bubble or crash, it is necessary to adjust the beta estimates of firms in other sectors by taking the industry grouping as a major input to develop estimates of equity capital cost using the range of company betas prior to the bubble or crash Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 43 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Figure 20-4 shows Nortel’s stock price, and illustrates the IT bubble Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 44 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Figure 20-5 shows both Tim Horton’s stock price and the S&P/TSX Composite Index during the 2008 financial crisis. Notice how the value of the index crashes while Tim Horton’s stock holds its value. How would this affect Tim Horton’s beta? Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition 45 Risk-Based Models and the Cost of Common Equity • Equation 20-27 shows we can scale our estimate of the equity holder’s required return when accessing new equity and incurring floatation costs: K ne Booth/Cleary Introduction to Corporate Finance, Second Edition K e P0 NP 46 The Cost of Capital and Investment • The investment opportunity schedule (IOS) is the ranking of a firm’s investment opportunities from highest to lowest profitability according to expected internal rate of return (IRR) • When superimposed on a marginal cost of capital (MCC) curve, the firm can identify projects that will increase the value of the firm by looking at the portion of the IOS that lies above the WACC line. Projects represented by the portion of the IOS below WACC should be rejected. 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