The Delta Forum 2004
Designing & Integrating
21st Century Systems
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society
Legal Aspects
Supply Chain
Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Sponsored by the
AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Group
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 1
Risk
Introduction – What is the Delta Forum
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
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Our Group’s TCs examine the
issues affecting the aerospace
industry in the areas of
Engineering and Technology
Management
The Delta Forum looks at a single
topic of interest to the industry,
from the various perspectives of
our TCs
– Aeronautics R&D Funding
– Aerospace in the New
Economy
– The Risk-Averse Aerospace
Industry
Our panel will take your questions
at the end of the session
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Economics
History
Legal Aspects
Logistics
Management
Multidisciplinary Design
Optimization
Product Development
Risk Management
Societal Aspects
Supply Chain Management
Systems Engineering
Technical Information
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 2
Society as a System
What are the Needs?
Tim Howard
AIAA Society & Aerospace Technology TC
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 3
Risk
Overview
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
• Is Society a System?
– Historical perspectives
– General System Theory
– Society as an individual need
• What does a social system need?
– Maslow & the needs of Society
• What does this mean for Aerospace?
– Aerospace & Society’s needs
– Aerospace & individual needs
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 4
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Greek View of Systems
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Water
Wind or Air
Fire
Earth
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 5
Risk
Greek Perspective
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
• Separate elements postulated by separate people over time
• Together, the elements compose the Earth system
• Aristotle pulled them together, as elements, not integrated
– Set the stage for 1500 years of “conventional” science
• Atomos theory – grew out of element theory
– Lost for centuries (Aristotle disagreed and tried to
suppress it); resurfaced in 1890s
• Relationship and interaction is
the key concept
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 6
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Chinese View of Systems
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
Tao Te Ching (Way of Integrity)
– 300-500 BC
– Tao = the system; Te = the
members
– About how things, including
man and nature, should be
– Differentiation & integration
(Yin and Yang)
– Process continues
indefinitely
The Tao begot one,
One begot two,
Two begot three.
The three begot the ten
thousand things.
The ten thousand things
embrace Yin and express Yang.
Harmony is achieved by
combining these forces.
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 7
Risk
Systems
Engineering
General System Theory
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
Ludwig von Bertalanffy, German
biologist
– Frustrated by separation of
science disciplines that resulted
from Aristotle’s presentation of
the elements
– Looking for general way to
describe organized complexity of
living organisms
– Proposed General System
Theory in the 1940s
• General Systems Theory
– A system is composed
of “elements in
standing relationship”
– The relationship
between the elements
is a component of the
system
• GST evolved into Complex
System Theory
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 8
Risk
General System Theory & Society
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
• Talcott Parsons, U.S. Sociologist
• Attempted to integrate sociology theories
• Believed Society had 4 functional imperatives
– Adaptation – society adapts to physical and political
environment
– Attainment – society defines primary goals and enlists
individuals to accept and strive for these goals
– Integration – society is coordinated into cohesive whole
– Latentcy – maintain and revitalized individuals to meet
social expectations
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 9
Risk
Systems
Engineering
General System Theory & Society
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
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Niklas Luhman, sociologist,
studied under Parsons & then
broke from Parsons
Applies System theory to
society as a living organism
•
Concept of autopoeisis – self
creation
– Comes from biology – refers
to dynamics of nonequilibrium structures
– The living system will create
what it needs from within
itself, while maintaining its
structure – the biological cell
– In contrast, an allopoietic
system, such as a car
factory, uses raw materials
(components) to generate a
car (an organised structure)
which is something other
than itself (a factory)
The Society creates itself through
its communications; individuals
are part of the system
environment
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 10
Risk
General System Theory & Society
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
• Jurgen Habermas, German sociologist
• Sought to construct social theory that is also non-oppressive
and inclusive universalist moral framework – critical theory
• Incorporates just about everyone, from Kant to Marx
• Conflict with Luhmann over role of individual in society;
closer to Parsons
• All speech acts – communications – have an inherent goal
of mutual understanding
• Human beings possess communicative competence to bring
about such understanding
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 11
Risk
Characteristics of Complex Systems
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
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Emergence – behaviors and patterns emerge from the relationship patterns
Relationships are short-range – information exchanged between near
neighbors
Relationships are non-linear – small stimulus may have no, small, or large
effect
Relationships contain feedback loops – supports constant adaptation;
effects of an agent’s actions can change future behavior (learn from error)
Complex systems are open – appear stable, but in constant change;
energy and information move across system boundaries
The parts cannot contain the whole – elements can not know what is
happening in the entire system
Complex systems have a history – small changes in circumstances can
lead to large deviations
Complex systems are nested – components are complex systems
themselves
Boundaries are difficult to determine – based on observer needs and
prejudices vice intrinsic property of the system
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 12
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Society as an Individual Need
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
•
•
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Abraham Maslow, U.S. psychologist
Proposed Hierarchy of Needs in 1960s
– Applied to individuals in an organization
– We operate across all levels as
we mature to next level
TransRelationship is the need that drives
cendence
us to form societies
Self
– Individuals form communities
Actualization
Knowledge &
– Communities form societies
Aesthetics
Self-actualization is why we work
Prestige
Transcendence is ultimate goal
Relationship
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Security
Safety
Survival
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 13
Risk
Characteristics of the Society System
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
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Society is a system of individual people at various points in the
hierarchy at any given time
Complex system integrated with its environment
Individuals within Society exist in relationship to each other
Communication & interaction is the venue to maintain the
relationship
Society’s needs mirror its elements
– Survival, safety, security, relationship are basic needs
– Prestige, knowledge, self-actualization, transcendence are
higher order
– Changes happen fast
Success comes in meeting the needs of society’s components –
the individual
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 14
Risk
What Does this Mean for Aerospace?
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
•
•
•
Internal and External perspective
– Aerospace industry is a society in itself
– Aerospace industry part of larger societies of nations and the
world
Aerospace must be able to respond to fluidity of changes in the
larger system, often due to factors beyond its control
– Cost to build new airplanes vs inflation or changes in market
– Cost per kg to place objects or people in orbit
Aerospace must also be able to meet the needs of society’s
individuals, in and out of the industry
– Workforce issues are key to future success of industry
When designing systems for society, need to design the individual
into the mix; account for communications
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 15
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Aerospace & the Needs of Society
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Need
Threat
Aerospace Contribution
Survival
• Air and Water pollution
• Overpopulation & scarcity of food
• Depletion of ozone layer
• Asteroid impact
• Remote sensing systems
• Asteroid monitoring
• “Planetary Defense”
Safety
• Natural disasters
• Disease & Epidemic
• Weather Systems
Security
• Terrorism
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Intelligence & Surveillance Systems
• Defense Systems
Relationship
• Prejudice
• Tribal warfare
• International Partners & Competitors
Prestige
• Lack of success, lack of
something to take pride in
• Planetary exploration – Moon, Mars
Knowledge &
Aesthetics
• Illiteracy
• Lack of access to resources
• Satellite communications systems
Self Actualization
• Oppression of free expression
• Poor economic conditions
• Contribution to national economic security
Transcendence
• Lack of systems view – how we fit
into the Earth system
• “Mission to Planet Earth”
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 16
Risk
What Society Needs from Aerospace
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
• Society needs systems
that strengthen the
communication &
interaction critical to
survival and growth
• These systems need to be:
– Safe
– Secure
– Reliable
– Environmentally
positive
– Economically sound
Engineering & Technology Management Group
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
3/24/2016 17
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Aerospace & the Needs of the Individual
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Need
Threat
Aerospace Contribution
Survival
• Industry consolidation/contraction
• Establish stability within industry to allow planning
for individual growth and movement
• Stabilize government funding levels
Safety
• Hazardous materials in workplace
• Complexity of systems challenges
maintainability
• Emphasize programs to improve work conditions
• Emphasize programs to improve survivability of
systems
Security
• Economic conditions of company
• Establish stability within organization
• Stabilize & commit to programs over multiple budget
years
Relationship
• Lack of interest by manager/leader
• Lack of cohesion within team or
organization
• Organize into coherent teams
• Take active interest in team and individual activities
• Quickly move out the negatives
Prestige
• Lack of recognition for contributions –
higher salary not always the answer
• Lack of successful endeavors
• Unethical behavior
• Recognize & reward contributions and other
activities
• Commit to project/program success
• Commit to ethical comport
Knowledge & Aesthetics
• Lack of R&D funding
• Lack of organized training
• Commit to stable funding
• Commit to professional development
Self Actualization
• Lack of integration of work and family
• Develop programs to support family & personal
interest activities
Transcendence
•Lack of integration with community
• Lack of Higher Purpose
• Commit to community projects
• Establish and commit to Higher Purpose
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 18
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Aerospace Economics
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Aerospace
Company
Revenues
($ millions)
# of
Employees
Global
500
Fortune 500
(US only)
100 Best
(US only)
Most
Admired
(Global 50)
Boeing
54,069.0
165,000
43
15
-
43
EADS
28,269.5
103,967
139
N/A
N/A
-
United
Technologies
28,212.0
155,000
141
49
-
-
Lockheed Martin
26,806.0
125,000
153
56
-
-
Honeywell Int’l
22,274.0
108,000
197
78
-
-
Northrup
Grumman
17,837.0
117,300
260
99
-
-
Raytheon
16,962.0
76,400
280
105
-
-
Bombardier
15,115.9
70,411
329
N/A
N/A
-
General
Dynamics
13,863.0
54,000
357
137
-
-
BAE Systems
12,135.4
68,100
417
N/A
N/A
-
Textron
10,658.0
49,000
472
174
-
-
Thales Group
10,499.1
60,662
480
N/A
N/A
-
Engineering & Technology Management Group
Source: Fortune Magazine, www.fortune.com
Information based on 2003 data
3/24/2016 19
Risk
Systems
Engineering
The Best Companies
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
Company
Revenues
($ millions)
# of
Employees
Global
500
Fortune 500
(US only)
100 Best
(US only)
Most
Admired
(Global 50)
JM Smucker
1,312.0
2585
-
-
1
-
Alston & Bird
314.0
1450
-
-
2
-
Container Store
271.0
1832
-
-
3
-
Edward Jones
2,270.0
27092
-
-
4
-
Republic Bancorp
340.0
1360
-
-
5
-
Adobe Systems
1,153.0
2368
-
-
6
-
TDIndustries
217.0
1393
-
-
7
-
SAS Institute
1,180.0
4927
-
-
8
-
Wegmans Food
Markets
2,836.0
28561
-
-
9
-
Xilinx
1,100.0
2037
-
-
10
-
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 20
Risk
Change our Systems Paradigm
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
•
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Fritjof Capra – The Tao of Physics: Change our paradigm
Old Paradigm: World as mechanical in nature; Body as machine; Life as
competitive struggle; unlimited progress will come through economic and
technological growth
Capra’s Approach
– 1. Shift from parts to whole – can only understand the parts from the
dynamics of the whole
– 2. Shift from structure to process – every structure is a manifestation of an
underlying process
– 3. Shift from objective to epistemiologic science – understand the process
through knowledge
– 4. Shift from building to network as a metaphor of knowledge – replace
“knowledge is power” with the power of shared knowledge
– 5. Shift from truth to approximate description – most decisions made within
10 minutes with incomplete information & intuition
Need a different social and economic structure from the one we have used since
the beginning of our industry
– Move from manufacturing to knowledge (net-centric)
– Recognize the needs of the system components – issue of loyalty among
the workforce points out the need to socialize
– Why aren’t we the best companies to work for?
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 21
Risk
Where are We Now?
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
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Dominant model of competition now giving way to collaboration
– Competition has a role; it meets the need for prestige, and helps
extend knowledge; needs to be better managed
Quantum physics shows that the classical system model does not hold true
at certain levels, and as we move out from “centerline”
Eastern approach brings a sense of integration & “synergy”
– When we focus on the differences instead of the similarities, we keep
the system from forming
Growing recognition that process is at the heart of the system
Replace the concept of opposites with the concept of complements
– The opposite of perfect vision is blindness; most of us have neither so
we complement what we have with another element of our “visual
system”
– How do we work to strengthen the complement of “management” and
“labor” (aren’t we all engaged in some sort of labor?)
– Did we need 2 JSFs or 1 really good JSF? Do we need to revisit
antitrust laws?
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 22
Risk
What Aerospace Needs to Do
Systems
Engineering
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
• Define our Higher Purpose – the settlement of the Solar
System by our grandchildren
– Tie to the needs of Society for survival, knowledge,
transcendence
• Organize for self-actualization of our members
– Invest to meet the needs of the workforce
– Put our companies in the Admired category
• Focus on systems to stabilize the industry & eliminate the
cycle of downsizing
– Proactive analysis of market demands
– Go for the long haul, vice the quarterly numbers
• Can’t build “systems of systems” if we ignore the basic
component – the individual (designer, integrator, end user)
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 23
Risk
Systems
Engineering
Final Thought
Economics
History Management
Society Legal Aspects
Supply Chain Logistics
Technical Multidiscipline Product
Information
Design Development
Management
Tracking the Constant of Change
We are dealing with emergent realities; no longer
with isolated groups of men, but with a
systematically interdependent global community.
It is this level of [reality] which we must keep
before our eyes if we are able to inspire largescale action designed to ensure our collective and
hence our individual survival
Ludwig von Bertalanffy, General System Theory
Engineering & Technology Management Group
3/24/2016 24