Economic Growth
in
Tokugawa Japan
Michael Smitka
March 2001
Economics 297 Presentation
Mid-16th Century Han
(“countries”)
Issues
• was Japan poor? -- standard of living
• was the economy static -- growth
process
• institutional, other legacies
• Curiosity: merely understanding Japan
(1600-1868)
Models
• economic growth :
– Solow one-sector model
– Lewis-Fei-Ranis two-sector model
• Solow model is simple production function
Y = f (K, L, N, tech) [“N” is land]
– technical change is core of Solow’s work
– capital deepening is a key factor (incl human capital)
– population growth can eat up gains
Other factors besides “hard” tech
• organizational & institutional change are
both underrated
– “Smithian” growth through specialization and
trade
– government provision of infrastructure, other
public goods
– development of business networks and accepted
practices in markets
Demographics
• population growth can swamp positive
factors.
• indeed, for most of human history standards
of living changed little
• how about Japan? -- and if not, why?
Basic Historical Overview
•
•
•
•
•
breakdown of old govt & continual warfare during 1500s
spread of irrigated rice varieties
diffusion of civil engineering techniques from China
1540: arrival of Francis Xavier & diffusion of muskets
unification under Oda Nobunaga & Toyotomi Hideyoshi
– neither was able to set up a system that outlived them
• enduring unification under Tokugawa Ieyasu (1600)
• Tokugawa “bakufu” officially founded in 1603
– Ieyasu named “shogun”
Unification = ?
• multiple “kuni” (country?!)
– each headed by a semi-autonomous
“daimyo” (lord)
– variations in laws, economic structure
• roughly 250 political-economic units
remained
Politics and the economy
• how maintain the peace?
– impoverish your rivals
– keep hostages
• alternate attendance system
– every-other year in Edo (modern Tokyo)
– families (heirs) must stay there
– mandated high expense levels
• by 1700 Edo had a population of over 1 million
Growth stimulus?
• Tokugawa control system had:
– implications for macroeconomic resource
flows in a two-sector context
– implications for commercialization and
monetization of the economy
• Lewis two-sector model: forced flows?
Government role
• the Edo “bakufu” fostered navigation
– port and lighthouse development
– maps etc. all by around 1720
• formal financial markets promoted
–
–
–
–
rice futures market in Osaka by 1720
transferring money in place of in-kind taxes
insurance markets (esp. casualty)
local (rural) finance by 1800s
Market-oriented economy
• especially intense development in several regions
– cash-crop farms around Osaka (hence farmers bought
food....)
– large urban consumer market
• commercial elite for whom political advancement
was foreclosed (cf. English Dissenters)
• education spread.
– ukiyoe were for mass-market (wedding presents…)
– lots of agricultural handbooks - 200+ titles in print
Specialization by the “kuni”
(export products)
• Silk, cotton, salt, lumber, paper, fish
• Some regions largely industrial
• Seasonal “proto-industry” often
accompanied by regional migration
• Both men & women active in wage labor
outside the home
Technical Change
• hard to measure industrial level but
– very rapid ability to reproduce industrial revolution
technology
– clear shifts in agriculture
• diminishing returns?
– demographic evidence mixed for whole country
– but not true (??) for “advanced” regions
Standard of Living
• transformation of consumption
– various rough fibers replaced by cotton; silk worn by more than
just elite
– new (and better foods). peppers, sweet potatoes / taro, corn, etc.
– new and better housing: tatami mats off the ground
– vast increases in protein-laden soybean-related consumption (miso,
soy sauce)
• Education
– Literate society, perhaps more so than England!
– Vast outpouring of books, circulated through lending libraries
– Even nascent “western” studies, esp. in 1800s
Shipping Routes after 1720
Area of
Indica
(short-grain)
Rice
Cultivation
–
early 1700s
–
darker hatching
indicates greater
cultivation of
indica rice
–
Kawaguchi Ironware
Zaguri
(silk weaving
machine)
Loom (karabikibata)
c. 1770
Spinning
Silk
Whale
Processing
Factory
Population Growth Rates
Region
Kinki
Tokai
Kanto
Tohoku
Tozan
Hokuriku105.3
San'in
San'yo
Shikoku
Kyushu
1798
93.5
100.1
85
86
106.1
118.8
106.8
111.7
105.3
1804
120
109.9
114.9
107.3
1828
129.9
119.8
123.8
111.3
1721 = 100
Kinki, Tokai, Kanto, Tohoku, Tozan all fell.
Hokuriku slow growth
old data
1834
-1834
132.7
121.8
126.1
112.2
1798
117.6
11.7%
14.0%
12.9%
6.6%
1846
93.5
106.6
86.6
88.7
110.1
11.7%
124.8
120.2
126.8
113.8
‘98-’46
0.0%
6.5%
1.9%
3.1%
3.8%
4.0%
9.4%
10.4%
6.1%
48 years
selected regions,
Agriculture Outgrows Population
Tokugawa Population & Agriculture
50.00
46.00
42.00
38.00
34.00
30.00
26.00
22.00
18.00
14.00
10.00
1600
1650
Population (millions)
1700
1720
1730
1750
Arable Land (100,000 í¨)
1800
1850
1872
Agricultural Output
Tokugawa Population &
Agriculture
Year
1600
1650
1700
1720
1730
1750
1800
1850
1872
Pop
(mil)
12.0
17.2
27.7
31.3
32.1
31.1
30.7
32.3
33.1
Arable Farm
Land Output
20.7
23.5
28.4
29.3
29.7
29.9
30.3
31.7
32.3
Area
per per
Pop Pop
19.7 17.25
23.1 13.66
30.6 10.25
32.0 9.36
32.7 9.25
34.1 9.61
37.7 9.87
41.2 9.81
46.8 9.76
Yield
per
Area
1.64
1.34
1.10
1.02
1.02
1.10
1.23
1.28
1.41
Yield
0.095
0.098
0.108
0.109
0.110
0.114
0.124
0.130
0.145
Specialization in Agriculture
Cotton Production
Koga county, Harima han
near modern Kobe
Year
Irrigated
fields
Dryland
Reclaimed
Total
1801
1807
1813
1822
1832
1842
1847
0.4%
0.6
3.0
4.3
0.5
2.2
1.5
13.7%
15.1
41.5
38.6
34.5
38.6
35.2
28.5%
25.2
36.9
36.8
34.8
36.9
35.2
8.2%
8.2
17.3
17.4
13.4
16.2
14.5
Note: I find it surprising that any irrigated fields were used for cotton instead of rice!
In the 1880s imports led to a sharp drop in domestic output, and production ceased by 1900.
Shifts in Family Structure
Average for Selected villages
Suwa Region, modern Nagano Prefecture
Year
Avg. Household Size
Nishiko
Yamaura
Avg Couples per Household
Nishiko
Yamaura
1671-1700
1701-1750
1751-1800
1801-1850
1851-1870
7.87
6.14
4.66
4.22
4.31
1.97
1.41
1.32
1.25
1.20
8.55
9.93
6.94
4.73
4.48
1.83
2.34
2.05
1.37
1.30
Osaka as an Entrepot (1714)
Principal non-Rice Imports / Exports
Imports
Marine products
Agricultural items
Clothing & textiles
Oilseed
Mining products
Fertilizer
Wood products
Misc Imports
Tea & tobacco
Tatami
Kyoto crafts
Total (Ag value)
20.2%
19.5
15.4
12.9
7.5
6.4
5.9
4.1
2.8
2.0
0.9
286,561 kan
Exports
Oil & beeswax
36.4%
Clothing & textiles
25.2
Misc tools
7.5
Misc exports
7.3
Processed food
6.1
Accessories & decorations 5.8
Lacquerware & pottery 4.6
Seedcake (fertilizer)
3.4
Furniture
0.5
Weapons
0.5
Arts & crafts
0.4%
Total
95,800 kan
Extent of Cotton Cultivation
Japan remained able to shift land out of food crops
Growth of a National Market
Rice Price Movements Converged in the 17th Century
Structure of
National Output
– 1874 –
• shortly after “opening” to
the West
• before significant
structural change from
– new technologies
– convergence of domestic &
international prices