16 35 Extending the Analysis of Aggregate Supply McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. From Short Run to Long Run • Short run • Wages and other input prices don’t • LO1 change. • Upsloping aggregate supply Long run • Wages and other input prices fully flexible • Vertical aggregate supply. 35-2 From Short Run to Long Run • Production above potential output: • Price level increases. • Nominal wages eventually rise to maintain real wages (purchasing power). • Other input prices rise • Short run aggregate supply shifts left because costs are higher. • Return to potential output at a higher price level. LO1 35-3 Extended AD-AS Model Increased Demand -- Short Long Run Price Level LRAS b P2 P1 AS1 a AD2 AD1 Qf Q2 Real Domestic Output LO2 35-4 Perfectly Competitive Firm in Long-run Equilibrium Price ($) MC Pe D = P = MR Qe Q2 QUANTITY Extended AD-AS Model Increased Demand -- Short Long Run Price Level LRAS AS2 AS 1 P3 c b P2 P1 a AD2 AD1 Qf Q2 Real Domestic Output LO2 35-6 Extended AD-AS Model Long Run Run Decreased Demand - Short Price Level LRAS AS1 a P1 P2 AS2 b AD1 AD2 Q1 Qf Real Domestic Output LO2 35-9 Perfectly Competitive Firm in Long-run Equilibrium Price ($) MC Pe D = P = MR Q2 Qe QUANTITY Extended AD-AS Model Long Run Run Decreased Demand - Short Price Level LRAS AS1 a P1 P2 P3 AS2 b c AD1 AD2 Q1 Qf Real Domestic Output LO2 35-11 From Short Run to Long Run So what is it about full employment that keeps bringing everything back here? Price Level ASLR AS1 a P1 AD1 Qf Real Domestic Output LO1 35-12 From Short Run to Long Run It’s the level of employment at which there is neither upward nor downward pressure on wages and input prices. Price Level ASLR AS1 a P1 AD1 Qf Real Domestic Output LO1 35-13 Extended AD-AS Model Demand-Pull Inflation Price Level ASLR P3 AS1 c b P2 P1 AS2 a AD2 AD1 Qf Q2 Real Domestic Output LO2 35-14 Extended AD-AS Model Cost-Push Inflation Price Level ASLR AS1 c P3 P2 AS2 b a P1 AD2 AD1 Q2 Q f Real Domestic Output LO2 35-15 Extended AD-AS Model Recession Price Level ASLR P3 AS2 a P1 P2 AS1 b c AD1 AD2 Q1 Qf Real Domestic Output LO2 35-16 Inflation and Unemployment • Low inflation and unemployment • Fed’s two major goals • Compatible or conflicting? • Short-run tradeoff between inflation • • LO3 and unemployment Supply shocks cause both rates to rise No long-run tradeoff 35-20 The Phillips Curve • Demonstrates short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment Concept Empirical Data 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Unemployment Rate (Percent) LO3 7 Annual Rate of Inflation (Percent) Annual Rate of Inflation (Percent) Data for the 1960s 7 69 6 5 68 4 66 67 3 65 2 1 64 63 62 61 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Unemployment Rate (Percent) 35-22 The Phillips Curve Annual rate of inflation (percent) 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Unemployment rate (percent) LO4 35-23 The Long-Run Phillips Curve PCLR Annual Rate of Inflation (Percent) 15 PC3 12 b3 PC2 9 a3 b2 PC1 6 c3 a1 c2 b1 3 0 a2 3 4 5 6 Unemployment Rate (Percent) LO4 35-24 The Phillips Curve • No long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment • Short-run Phillips curve • Role of expected inflation • Long-run vertical Phillips curve • Disinflation LO4 35-26