Unit 8



Reflects change from agrarian to industrial
culture
Continues to grow exponentially at rate of
(≈227,000 people/day)
Growth is unevenly distributed across globe



Ability to expand into almost all climate
zones, habitats
Ability to grow more food per unit of land
Drop in death rates due to improved
sanitation, medicines

Maximum number of people living
comfortable and sustainably



Births
Deaths
Migration
Population Change =
(births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
 number of live births per 1000 people in
a population in a given year

Crude Death Rate (CDR)
 Number of deaths per 1000 people in a
population in a given year
Crude Birth
Rate CBR
Crude Death
Rate CDR
21
World
9
11
10
All developed
countries
All developing
countries
Developing
countries
(w/o China)
8
9
24
29
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa
CBR
CDR
Latin
America
14
23
6
Asia
20
7
Oceania
18
7
United
States
North
America
Europe
38
15
9
14
9
10
11

Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
 births + immigration = deaths + emigration
Annual rate of
population
change (%)
or…
Birth Rate – Death Rate
1000
Birth Rate – Death rate
10
X 100

China and India- 37% of global population

US- 4.5% of global population

Developing countries > 95% growth
between 1998-2025
World
Population Growth
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available
China
1.28 billion
1.5 billion
India
37%
1 billion
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
1.4 billion
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
288 million
346 million
217 million
282 million
174 million
219 million
Pakistan
144 million
242 million
Russia
144 million
129 million
Bangladesh
134 million
178 million
Japan
127 million
121 million
Nigeria
4.6%
130 million
205 million
2002
2025
The worlds 10 most
populous countries (2002)
Beijing
Tibet
NEPAL
CHINA
JAPAN
Shanghai
Delhi
PAKISTAN
INDIA
Bhopal Calcutta
BANGLADESH
Hong Kong
PACIFIC
OCEAN
THAILAND
Bombay
INDIAN OCEAN
State of
Kerala
PHILIPPINES
Bangkok
SRI LANKA
NEW
GUINEA
BORNEO
INDONESIA
Where
are they?
2 types:
 Replacement Level Fertility: number of
children to replace reproductive couple
-2.1 in developed countries
-2.5 in developing countries
-population momentum: future increase in
population due to large number of people
entering into childbearing years (despite those
couple having few children)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
estimate of average number of children a
woman will have in her lifetime
-most useful measure for projecting future
population growth



2000: TFR= 2.9*
Highest TFR: Africa= 5.3
TFR= 2.3; world population= 8 billion in
2025
*if TFR remained at 2.9, human population
would reach 694 billion by 2150
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World
5 children per women
2.8
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
2.5
1.6
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.2
Latin
America
5.9
2.7
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
There has
been a
decline in
total
fertility
rates.
2.5
North
America
3.5
2.1
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2002
Population Projections
12
11
Population (billions)
10
9
8
High
High
10.9
Medium
Low
Medium
9.3
7
6
Low
7.3
5
4
3
2
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
2050
2012- 310 mil
(US pop in 1900 was 79 mil; took 139 yrs to add
first 100 mil; 52 yrs to add next 100 mil; 39 yrs to
add 3rd 100 mil)
 TFR= 2.1
 Has highest fertility rate and highest
immigration rate of any industrialized country
(rate of growth has declined, but population is
still growing faster than developed countries and
China)





1.66 million more births than deaths
800,000- 1,000,000 legal immigrants
-53% from Latin America
-25% from Asia
-14% from Europe
300,000 illegal immigrants (est 11 million)
Projected growth by 2050: 41% to 86%
(Pacific NW growth is higher than India!)
Births per thousand population
Birth Rates in the U.S.
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
0
1910
Demographic
transition
1920
End of World War II
Depression
1930
1940
Baby Boom
1950
1960
Year
Baby bust
1970
Echo Baby Boom
1980
1990
2000
2010
United States
Mexico
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Canada
288 million
Population
(2002)
102 million
31 million
Projected
population
(2025)
Infant
Mortality
Rate
346 million
132 million
36 million
6.6
25
5.3
77 years
75 years
79 years
Life
expectancy
2.1
Total Fertility
Rate (TFR)
2.9
1.5
21%
% population
under age 15
33%
19%
% population
over age 65
13%
Comparison of
Basic Demographic
Data
5%
13%
Per Capita
GNI PPP
$34,110
$8,790
$27,170




Large numbers of baby boom woman still
in child-bearing years
Increase in number of unmarried mothers
High levels of immigrants
Inadequate family-planning services



Importance of children in workforce
(developing countries)
Cost of raising and educating children
(developed countries)
Pension systems (reduces parents’ need for
child support in their old age)




Urbanization (better access to family
planning )
Educational, employment opportunities for
women (more education-fewer children)
Average age at which woman has first child
Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural
norms
(also responsible for increased growth rates)
 Increased food supply
 Better nutrition
 Medical advances in immunizations,
antibiotics
 Improved sanitation, cleaner water
(“It’s not that people stopped breeding like
rabbits, it’s just that they stopped dying like
flies” UN)
Rate per 1,000 people
40
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developed Countries
50
Rate of
natural increase
30
Crude
Birth Rate
20
Crude
Death Rate
10
Rate of natural increase = Crude Birth Rate –Crude Death Rate
0
1775 1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
2050
Rate per 1,000 People
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries
50
Crude
Birth Rate
40
Rate of
natural
increase
30
Crude
Death Rate
20
10
Rate of natural increase = Crude Birth Rate – Crude Death Rate
0
1775 1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
2050
1. Life expectancy: years a newborn infant can
expect to live
-77 years (developed countries)
-64 years (developing countries- without
AIDS, war)
-globally: 48 yrs (1955), 66 yrs (1998),
73 yrs (2025)
-Africa: less than 50 yrs
2. Infant mortality rate: # of babies/1000 that
die before their 1st birthday
-best measure of society’s quality of life
-reflects level of nutrition (undernutrition,
malnutrition), health care
(4 million infants die each year of preventable
causes)
Infant deaths per
1,000 live births
<10
10-35
36-70
71-100
100+
Data not
available
Infant Mortality Rates in 2002



Inadequate health care for poor women
Drug addiction among pregnant women
High birth rate among teenage women
-US has highest teenage pregnancy rate in
world
-babies born to teenagers is low (most
important factor in infant deaths)



Age structure diagrams: proportion of the
population at each age level
3 main age categories:
-prereproductive: 0-14
-reproductive: 15-44
-postreproductive: 45+
Age distribution has long-lasting economic
and social impacts
Male
Female
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 45-85+


Rapid growth: wide base of preproductive
age (0-14)
2010: 27% of global population was under 15
(1 in 4 on planet)
-30% in developing countries
-16% in developed countries
-44% in Africa

1946-1964: 79 million people were added to
U.S.:
-dominated demand for goods, services
-decides who is elected to office
-decides what laws are passed
-seniors (65 ↑) fastest growing age group
(“Graying of America”)
-will pass on higher unemployment, taxes to
millennial generation (born since 1980 AKA
you guys)
Number of Workers Supporting
each Social Security Beneficiary
40
1945
41.9 workers
To maintain
current ratio of
workers to
retirees,
US will need to
absorb 10.8
immigrants each
year through
2050
30
20
1950
16.5
10
2075
1.9
0
1945
2000
Year
2050 2075


Gradual decline: negative effects are
manageable
Rapid decline:
-threaten economic growth
-labor shortages (health-care workers)
-budget strains on pension plans, healthcare costs
ex. Japan, Russia, Germany, Italy, Greece,
Portugal
40
Global Aging
Age Distribution (%)
35
Rapid
population
decline can
lead to
severe
economic
and social
problems.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150
Year
Under age 15
Age 60 or over
Age 80 or over

1949: TFR of 4.5
1998: TFR of 1.4
-resists increased immigration (fear of social
cohesiveness)
-must depend on automation and women
working outside of home

1981-2009: 27 million people died of AIDS/ 2
million every year (WHO)
-22,000 in US; 39,000 in China; 350,000
Africa
-results in loss of productive workers
-drastically alters age structure
-creates large number of orphans

1995: 27 million international refugees moved
due to environment degradation (drought,
desertification, deforestation, soil erosion,
resource shortages)

1988-1998: 50 million left homeless due to
natural disasters (earthquakes, hurricanes,
floods, landslides)

US, Australia, Canada accept
large #’s of refugees

Asking the wrong
question
 What is the earth’s
optimum sustainable
population?

Population regulation
is a violation of
personal freedom
 Should be able to
have as many
children as we want.

Earth is not overpopulated.
 Longer life span
today proof of
capability to sustain
greater population

Cannot provide basic
necessities for
everyone today
 Raising the death
rates for humans
 Increasing
environmental harm

Some computer models suggest that the Earth
could support 20-48 billion people if everyone
existed at a survival level:
-grain-only diet
-cultivate all arable land
-mine the Earth’s crust to a depth of a mile

Some scientists suggest that the key factor isn’t
overpopulation, but overconsumption:
affluence leading to over-consumption of
resources per person



Reduce poverty by promoting economic
development
Elevate the status of women
Encourage family planning

Demographic transition: hypothesis of
population change as countries become more
industrialized:
1) death rates drop
2) birth rates decline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Pre-industrial stage: harsh living conditions,
high infant mortality and death rates; population
growth is small (if at all)
Transitional stage: start of industrialization,
↑ food production, ↓ death rate; pop. growth is
rapid- China, India
Industrialized stage: birth rates↓, ↑ access to
birth control, reduced infant mortality, higher
cost of raising children; pop. growth
slows
Post-industrial: further decline in birth rate, ZPG
-37 countries, including western Europe, Japan
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Stage 4
Industrial Postindustrial
High
80
Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate
(number per 1,000 per year)
Stage 1
Preindustrial
70
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
Death rate
20
10
Total population
0
Low
growth
rate
Increasing
growth
rate
Very high Decreasing
growth
growth
rate
rate
Time
Low
Low
growth
rate
Zero
growth
rate
Negative
growth
rate

Developing countries: transitional stage
-pop growth outstrips economic growth
(demographic trap)
-lack skilled workers to produce high-tech
products
-lack capital, resources for economic
development



Females make up ½ of global pop, but have
fewer opportunities for education (economic
opportunities)
Females do most of the world’s domestic work
(growing food, hauling wood and water), child
care, and health care (unpaid)
Benefits of educating females:
-ability to control fertility (tend to have fewer
children)
-earn an income
-societies that do not suppress women
Typical Workday for a Woman in Africa
4:45 A.M.
Wake,
wash, and
eat
5:00 A.M.5:30 A.M.
Walk to
fields
5:30 AM.3:00 P.M.
Work in
fields
3:00 P.M.4:00 P.M.
Collect
firewood
4:00 P.M.5:30 P.M.
Pound and
grind corn
5:30 P.M.6:30 P.M.
Collect
water
6:30 P.M.8:30 P.M.
Cook for
family and
eat
8:30 P.M.9:30 P.M.
Wash
dishes
and children
9:30 P.M.
Go to bed





Major factor in reducing birth rate
Reduced # of abortions
Reduced # mother and fetus deaths
(600,000 women die from pregnancy-related
causes)
Drop in TFR by ≈ 55% in developing countries
(6 in 1960 to 3.2 in 2000)
Financial benefit: each dollar spent in
developing countries saves $10-$16 in social
services


Penalties (China): higher taxes, eliminating
tax deductions for third child, loss of health
benefits and food allotments
Rewards: reinforcement of trends toward
smaller families (social acceptance),
increasing a poor family’s economic status





Bureaucratic inefficiency.
Low status of women.
Extreme poverty.
Lack of administrative financial support.
Disagreement over the best ways to slow
population growth.



Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per women.
China has moved 300 million people out of
poverty.
Problems:
-Strong male preference leads to gender
imbalance (by 2030, 30 million males will not be
able to find brides)
-Average population age is increasing without
children to support elders


Used to estimate doubling time of any
population growing exponentially
Formula:
Doubling time (yrs) =
70
% growth rate

in 2010, the population of Upper Fremont
is 200,000 and growing at a rate of 2% each year.
(a) If the rate of growth remains constant, calculate
the population in 2045
-doubling time = 70 = 35 yrs
2
-2045-2010 = 35 yrs
- answer: 400,000
What will the population be in 2080?
3 factors for exponential pop growth
Definition of cultural carrying capacity
3 main factors affecting pop. Size (know the
equation)
 ZPG (what it stands for and know the equation)
 TFR (what it stands for and what it means)
 CBR; CDR (know formula)
 Replacement Level Fertility
 4 stages of demographic transition
 Most useful indicators of overall health of a
population













Population momentum
Relative growth rates of developed vs developing
countries
Cases of India and China (why hasn’t India’s family
planning been successful?; results of China’s
population control)
Reasons for infant mortality in US
Predicted outcome of “Boomer” generation reaching
65
Age structure graphs and examples of each
Ways to slow population growth
Key factors that women to have fewer children
Family planning
Affect of AIDS on global population