ECONOMICS: EXPLORE & APPLY by Ayers and Collinge Chapter 29 “Economic Development” ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 1 Learning Objectives 1. Discuss the problems that are a priority for developing countries. 2. Describe the goals on the United Nations’ development agenda. 3. Point out the incentives for population growth. 4. Explain the connection between economic development and property rights. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 2 Learning Objectives 5. Identify the roles of the International Monetary fund and the World Bank in economic development. 6. Describe how insecure property rights have hindered economic development in Russia. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 3 29.1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND POVERTY o There are approximately 6.2 billion people in the world living in 207 countries. o The International Monetary Fund (IMF) classifies these countries into three groups: o Developed countries – free market high income countries o Less developed countries – a person in one of these 128 countries may earn as little as $170 a year. o Transitional economies – moving away from central economies towards market economies. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 4 Developing Countries and Poverty Economic development is a field within economics that studies why some countries remain mired deep in poverty, while other countries prosper. The data that describes a country’s economic development are called economic indicators. Per capita income is probably the indicator referred to most frequently. Often a set of indicators is needed to assess the level of development in a country. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 5 Problems of the Developing Countries While there are significant differences in the problems LDC’s face, they do share several problems: Poverty. Deficiencies in infrastructure. Low life expectancy rates. High population growth. The extreme poverty of the LDC’s has enormous consequences for the people living in those countries, including the prospect of an early death. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 6 Problems of the Developing Countries ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 7 Problems of the Developing Countries ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 8 Rostow’s Stages of Economic Development In 1960 Economic historian Walter W. Rostow suggested that countries pass through 5 stages in their development. Stage 1: Traditional society. Stage 2: Preconditions for takeoff. Stage 3: Takeoff. Stage 4: Drive to maturity. Stage 5: High Mass Consumption. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 9 Problems of the Developing Countries LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES COMPARED TO THE UNITED STATES LOW-INCOME UNITED DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR COUNTRIES STATES Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000) 114.9 8.7 Infant mortality rate 76.1 7.1 Access to improved water source (% of population) 75.7 100 Access to improved sanitation (% of population) 45.1 100 Fixed line and mobile telephones (per 1,000 people) 28.7 1,097.60 Personal computers (per 1,000 people) 5.1 585.2 Gross national income per capita $410 $34,100 Life expectancy at birth (years) 58.9 77.1 ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 10 A Development Agenda The stated mission of the United Nations (UN) is to promote world peace and prosperity through international cooperation. The UN has set eight economic development goals. The U.N. plans to achieve these goals by 2015. The goals are associated with targets, specific results that when achieved will mean each goal has been met. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 11 Problems of the Developing Countries UNITED NATIONS GOALS AND SELECTED TARGETS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GOAL SELECTED TARGET 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. Halve the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar a day. 2. Achieve universal primary education. Ensure that boys and girls have access to primary schooling. 3. Promote gender equality and empower women. Eliminate gender disparity in all levels of education. 4. Reduce child mortality. Reduce by two-thirds the under-five child mortality rate. 5. Improve maternal health. Reduce by three-quarters the maternal mortality rate. 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. Halt the spread of HIV/AIDS. 7. Ensure environmental sustainability. Reverse the loss of environmental resources. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 12 United Nations Development Indicators for the World UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS FOR THE WORLD INDICATOR 1. Sanitation, percentage of population with access to improved sanitation, rural 2. Sanitation, percentage of population with access to improved sanitation, total 3. Sanitation, percentage of population with access to improved sanitation, urban 4. Water, percentage of population with access to improved drinking water sources, rural 5. Water, percentage of population with access to improved drinking water sources, total 6. Water, percentage of population with access to improved drinking water sources, urban 7. Children one-year-old immunized against measles, percent 8. Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births 9. Infant mortality rate (zero to one year) per 1,000 live births 10. Internet users 11. Internet users per 100 population 12. Personal computers 13. Personal computers per 100 population 14. Telephone main lines in use and cellular subscribers 15. Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing VALUE 40% 61% 85% 71% 82% 95% 72% 83 57 550 million 8.14 575 million 9.37 2 billion 32.27 Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 13 29.2 POPULATION GROWTH The world has seen its population grow rapidly. From just over 3 billion in 1960, to over 6 billion today. Part of the reasons for this growth is that advances in medicine and hygiene have lowered death rates, thereby increasing longevity. Birthrates have also been high, especially among the segments og the population least able to afford raising children. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 14 World Population Growth Billions of people 10 Population 8 6 4 2 0 1650 ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing 1750 1850 1900 1950 2002 2020 Years Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 15 The Dismal Science Economics was once called the dismal science. Thomas Robert Malthus popularized the notion in the 1800’s that economics could only hope to delay the day when the world’s population finds itself at the brink of starvation. According to this view, starvation is the only force that can keep population in check. The world has come a long way since the 1800’s and both population and living standards have increased dramatically. Since population is growing geometrically, there is still room for concern. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 16 Population Growth ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 17 Subsidizing Population Growth ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 18 Problems with the Price Signal • One group that frequently does not bear the cost of its decisions is parents. • Efficiency would suggest that parents should pay all of the cost that rearing children. • Equity suggest that children children should have comparable opportunities. • Since a child born into poverty does not choose to be there, to promote equity, it makes since for taxpayers to subsidize less fortunate children. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 19 Problems with the Price Signal o To the extent that the cost of rearing children are paid by others, parents face a marginal cost of rearing children that does not reflect the full cost of those children to society. o Government subsidies can influence parents to choose to have more children than they would were the marginal cost not subsidized. o The result is that government subsidies tend to increase population growth. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 20 Problems with the Price Signal o In order to receive extra government aid or tax write-offs. o These are children that children would prefer to have, except for the extra they cause. o In other words, the parent’s demand curve would be negative for these children o Public assistance intended to help children may in this way lead to more children who need help. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 21 Problems with the Price Signal o In less developed countries people have children they don’t want for several reasons. o One is because they lack access to birth control, or they may have customs or beliefs that do not accept its use. o A second reason is due to ineffective or nonexistent government programs such as social security or other transfer programs. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 22 Problems with the Price Signal A couple in a less developed country with several children can rely on them for assistance if they reach advanced ages. Education, medical care, and stable governments can help address population growth issues. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 23 29.3 PRICES AND PROPERTY RIGHTS For countries to develop they need capital. Investments from private sources or government is the source of this capital. Because of the central importance of prices in guiding consumption and investment spending throughout the world, the market economy is often called the price system. Prices respond to scarcity. Other things equal, the scarcer the resources, the higher their prices. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 24 Prices and Property Rights With the price of a non-renewable resource like oil, when the resource price rises the market is motivated to explore for more of it and develop substitutes. As the price of oil has risen, technology has responded to prevent shortages. Many developing countries’ exports are heavily weighted toward natural resources. The problem arises when the prices of these commodities is not high enough to sustain development. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 25 Prices and Property Rights o The Prebisch-Singer thesis, which was advanced in the 1950’s, states that developing countries will be trapped in poverty because the price of their exports will be driven down by increasing commodity supplies as the price system responds. o This can lead to immiserising growth, where increasing supplies of commodities exported by the LCD’s causes prices to drop so far that these countries end up worse off because of trade. o This thesis is not generally accepted by economist for the ills of these countries. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 26 Prices and Property Rights o Secure property rights, meaning rights of ownership, are lacking in many LDC’s. o Investors need to know that they will be able to retain the fruits of their investments, or they will not invest. o They must not fear that government action in the future will prevent them from reaping the rewards that they envision when they make their investments in the present. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 27 Economic Growth Economic incentives can put a brake on population growth. Specifically, as countries become wealthier, the opportunity cost of people’s time rises. Fertility rates, the number of children born per woman, reflect economic incentives and traditions such as attitudes towards family size. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 28 Economic Growth ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 29 29.4 COUNTRIES HELPING COUNTRIES: Foreign Aid o When one country helps another country, the mechanism is often foreign aid. o Foreign aid consist of donated money or capital. o Countries provide foreign aid on their own and through membership in the two most important organizations that channel resources to the poorer countries. o World Bank o International Monetary Fund ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 30 Foreign Aid – An Answer to Scarcity? Polls show that people in the developed countries support the principles of giving aid to the LDC’s. The amount of that aid is the subject of debate. To provide relief to the world’s most heavily indebted countries the U.S. and other countries help pay for the debt through a program established by the IMF and the World Bank. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 31 Purposes of U.S. Foreign Aid Humanitarian Assistance Broad-based economic growth & agricultural devlopment Democracy & governance ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Environment Human capacity development Population, health & nutrition Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 32 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) The purposes of the IMF are to: 1. Promote international monetary cooperation 2. Facilitate the expansion of international trade. 3. Encourage exchange rate stability. 4. Further the establishment of a multilateral (multicountry) payment system. 5. Provide resources to member countries experiencing balance of payments problems. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 33 The World Bank World Bank loans to less-developed member countries are intended to further their economic development. World Bank loans only go to developing countries, and must be repaid. Lending is of two types. The first is lending to countries that are able to pay near-market interest on loans they receive. The second is to countries that cannot afford to pay interest at all. These loans are called credits. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 34 29.5 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR RUSSIA ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 35 Terms Along the Way • developed countries • less-developed countries • Transitional economies • economic development • Rostow’s stages of economic development ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing • • • • • • • “the dismal science” price signals Prebisch-Singer thesis immiserizing growth property rights World Bank International Monetary Fund Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 36 Test Yourself 1. Life expectancy in in the LDC’s is generally a. about the same as developing countries. b. higher than in developed countries because people eat healthier foods. c. higher than in developed countries because the people eat less frequently. d. lower than in the developed countries. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 37 Test Yourself 2. The fourth stage in Rostow’s stage model is a. traditional society b. takeoff. c. drive to maturity. d. high mass consumption. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 38 Test Yourself 3. a. b. c. The price system hinders economic development. has no effect on economic development. promotes economic development by offering people incentives to find and develop new resources. d. promotes economic development, but is clearly inferior to central planning in that role. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 39 Test Yourself 4. In recent years annual foreign aid from all countries has totaled about a. $10 billion. b. $40 billion. c. $70 billion. d. $100 billion. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 40 Test Yourself 5. The primary role of the International monetary fund (IMF) is to a. central planning of economies. b. make sure that countries repay their loans to the World Bank. c. show farmers in LDC’s how to produce enough food to avoid starvation. d. strengthen the world monetary and financial system. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 41 Test Yourself 6. As Russia develops its market economy by reducing taxes and securing property rights, the underground economy in Russia will likely a. expand. b. diminish. c. remain the same. d. be legalized by the government. ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 42 The End! ©2004 Prentice Hall Publishing Ayers/Collinge, 1/e 43