Policies, Dynamics & Trends
That are Shaping Today’s
Solar Industry
CTF Solar Subgroup
April 5, 2010
1
Government Policies - Dave
 Government Policies Update
• US Programs
• Copenhagen
• Global trends
 PV Technology & Roadmap
 US Market Dynamics
• Status & Trends
• VCs & Funding
 Key Countries
• Germany
• Spain
• China
• India
 Career Options
• Solar Subgroup landings
 Summary & coordinator
Dave Fraser
Dinah Cheng
Paritosh Rajora
Wen-Ben Chou
Ranjeet Pancholy
Dinah Cheng
Ravinder Sachdeva
Ranjeet Pancholy
Mike Hsieh
Ranjeet Pancholy
Steve Campbell
Keith Imai
Keith Imai
2
Global Solar Power Map
5-7 hours of peak sunlight in California
3
US Government Incentives
 Federal
• Income Tax Credit and Depreciation
 State Programs
• Retrofit Construction
• New Construction
• Affordable Housing
 Local Incentives and Financing
• San Francisco, Berkeley, Sonoma
Source PG&E Webinar: PV Financial Analysis
4
California Incentives
 CSI – California Solar Initiative
• Retrofit residential and non-residential
• New construction non-residential
• Incentives designed to decline over time
 NSHP - New Solar Homes Partnership
• New residential homes only
• Builders, developers, custom homeowners
Source PG&E Webinar: PV Financial Analysis
5
California Incentives (cont.)
 MASH and SASH
• Multifamily Affordable Solar Homes
• Single Family Affordable Solar Homes
• Designed to encourage adoption for low
income housing residents
Over $1B in these programs!
 Solar feed in tariff coming soon
Source PG&E Webinar: PV Financial Analysis
6
Making Solar Affordable
“Energy Conservation First” strategy
Energy Audits
Retrofit projects
Smart Meters + home management
systems
Government + PG+E incentives for
conservation with rebates and tax
credits
7
2009 Copenhagen Mission
 Set new agreement to
extend the Kyoto Protocol
beyond 2012
GHG Emissions Control
1. Ambitious emission targets
for developed countries
2. Appropriate mitigation
actions of developing
countries
3. Financial and technological support for both
adaptation and mitigation
4. Effective institutional framework with
governance structures to address the needs
of developing countries
8
Pre-conference Announcements
from the Top Four Emitters
 China
• Cut CO2 emission intensity (CO2 per GDP) by 40%-45%
from 2005 level
 US
• Cut GHG emissions by ~17% below 2005 levels by 2020
• EPA rule that CO2 and other GHG as a toxic gas
• Allows regulation of planet-warming gases without
legislation in Congress
 Indonesia
• Reduce annual carbon emission by 5% and preserving
the Kampar peninsula
 Brazil
• Reduce >36% of carbon emissions by 2020
9
2009 Copenhagen Accord




Drafted by US, China, India, Brazil, & South Africa
Judged a "meaningful agreement" by US
Non-legally binding commitments
Not passed unanimously
• Opposed by many countries and NGO
 Recognized that climate change is one of the
greatest challenges…actions needed to keep global
temperature increases to below 2°C
10
Global Government Policies
 64 countries have some type of policy to
promote renewable power generation
 Feed-in tariffs are most widely used policy
• 45 countries
• Adopted first time: South Africa, Philippines,
Ukraine, Poland, Kenya
• Engaged in developing Feed-in-policies: UK,
Japan, Israel, Egypt, Nigeria
11
Global Trends
 Common revisions to Feed-in laws
•
•
•
•
•
Extending feed-in periods
Modifying tariff levels
Establishing or removing annual caps
Adding eligibility for micro-generation
Modifying administrative procedures
 Solar heaters getting attention
• New subsidies, tax incentives, loan programs
12
Grid Parity vs. Countries
Parity
• PV ≈ Fossil Fuels (cost
per unit)
• PV makes sense
Countries in order of
Grid Parity
(Higher the rank - PV
easier to justify )
Italy
Israel
Spain, Japan, Germany
Worldwide
fossil fuel
subsidies per
year: ~$190B
Vs.
Total renewable
subsidies: $10B
(incl. PV)
California, France, UK,
Greece
Australia, USA
China, India
Less Parity
• PV cost >> Fossil Fuels
Canada
• PV much more expensive
• Harder to justify
Russia
Countries which
heavily subsidize
Fossil Fuel!
13
Global Incentives
Top Financial Incentives
Countries:
(Feed-in-Tariffs, Tax
Incentives, Loan Programs)
Top Regulatory Incentives
Countries:
(Easing admin. procedures,
easing eligibility, removing
annual caps)
Germany
Greece
France
Italy
California
Greece
Australia, UK, Spain, France
California
Germany, India
Italy
China
USA
USA
14
PV Technology & US Market - Srikanth
 Government Policies Update
• US Programs
• Copenhagen
• Global trends
 PV Technology & Roadmap
 US Market Dynamics
• Status & Trends
• VCs & Funding
 Key Countries
• Germany
• Spain
• China
• India
 Career Options
• Solar Subgroup landings
 Summary & coordinator
Dave Fraser
Dinah Cheng
Paritosh Rajora
Wen-Ben Chou
Ranjeet Pancholy
Dinah Cheng
Ravinder Sachdeva
Ranjeet Pancholy
Mike Hsieh
Ranjeet Pancholy
Steve Campbell
Keith Imai
Keith Imai
15
PV Efficiency Roadmap
16
Technology Challenges
Bulk Si Solar Cells
Contact Resistance
Shadowing
Shallow Emitter
Si usage <3g/W
ARC improvements
Low loss Packaging
Recombination Control
Lower Shadowing Loss
Yield Improvement
2015 goal production cost $1/W
Adapted from Management Report
NREL/MP-520-41733
June 2007
Reliability Improvement
MPP Tracking
17
Technology Challenges
Thin Film Photovoltaics
High rate deposition - 20-30 um/hr
for 1um thickness
Reduced light induced instability 2-3% efficiency loss
Lower interconnect and TCO
resistance
Improved packaging reliability for
1%/ power loss per year
Roll-Roll manufacturing
Maximum Power Point Tracking
2015 goal production cost
$0.4-0.7/W
Adapted from http://www.solarthinfilms.com/active/en/home/photovoltaics/
18
Technology Challenges
Concentrator Photovoltaics - Terrestrial
Junction Temperature Control!!
Demonstrate 20 year life for “realworld” conditions
500X concentration to 3000X
concentration
Multi-junction cells/III-V for spectral
efficiency
MPPT and sun tracking
2015 goal installed cost $2/W
http://www.emcore.com/solar_photovoltaics/terrestrial_concentrator_photovoltaic_a19
rrays
Policy Requirements 2010 - 2020
 Long term utility targets and supporting policies
• Builds confidence for investment in manufacturing
capacity and deployment of utility scale PV systems
 Implement incentive schemes and low cost
financing
• Catalyses consumer market creation
• Incentives will be transitional and decrease over time
 Increase R&D funding to sustain technology
roadmap
• Reduces production and ramp-up costs
• Supports longer term technology breakthroughs
20
US PV Status & Trends
 US and State incentives accelerated in 2009
• Installed capacity growth 64%
• Cost Parity still not viable
 Manufacturing cost reductions - steep price declines
• Acceleration of cost reduction plans
 “Holy Grail” cell prices of $1 /W may be reached in 2010
 Module Prices Drop 38% in 2009 to $2.50 /W
• Expected to Drop 20% in 2010 to $2 /W
 Good job opportunities for the next several years!
21
Source : Solid solar.com Web site
US PV Energy Status
 US PV Grid Connected PV
demand Grows
 Largest PV demand states
• California
• Arizona, New Jersey, New
Mexico, New York, Nevada
and Colorado
 Significant growth
• 2009 - 544 MW
• 2010 - 650 MW (est.)
• 2012 - 1500-2000 MW (est.)
 World leader by 2012
California
• Bigger than Spain or Germany
22
2012 PV Cell & Module Manufacturing
Est. Market Share
• Crystalline 35%
• Thin Films 65%
Thin Film Breakdown
• CdTe
18%
• Amorphous Si 24%
• CIGS
22%
Estimated annualized growth rate of 50% & 45% respectively from 2008 to 2012
23
Top 20 US PV Plants
Top 20 US PV Projects
 Top 5 US plants
•
•
•
•
•
Nellis AFB, AZ
El Dorado, NV
Alamosa, CO
Springville, AZ
Rancho Seco, CA
Name
Location
State
14
Ground
NV
2007
12.6
Ground
NV
2008
Alamosa
8.2
Ground
CO
2007
Springerville Generating Station
4.6
Ground
AZ
2001-2004
Rancho Seco Power Plant
3.9
Ground
CA
1984-2000
Prescott Airport
3.5
Ground
AZ
2001-2005
Hall's Warehouse Corp. Solar Project
3.2
Roof
NJ
2009
Ground
PA
2008
Nellis AFB
14 MW
13 MW
8 MW
5 MW
4 MW
El Dorado PV Plant
Exelon-Epuron Solar Energy Center
MW
3
Date
Atlantic City Conv. & Visitors Auth.
2.4
Roof
NJ
2008
Toyota North America Parts Center
2.3
Roof
CA
2008
Applied Materials Corporation
2.1
Roof
CA
2008
Prologis Solar System
2.4
Roof
CA
2008
 9 California plants in top 20
Denver International Airport
2
Ground
CO
2008
Fresno Yosemite Int. Airport
2
Ground
CA
2008
TESCO Riverside
2
Roof
CA
2008
Fort Carson
2
Ground
CO
2007
South San Joaquin Irrigation Dist.
1.9
Ground
CA
2008
Bolthouse Farms
1.9
Ground
CA
2008
Continuum Lakewood Dev. Co.
1.8
Roof
CO
Google Headquarters
1.6
Roof
CA
242008
2007
US Solar System Cost Competitiveness
Small Systems $/W
Silicon $/Kg
Wafers $/W
C- Si Modules $/W
Ref: iSuppli Report 2009
C –Si Cells $/W
25
The VC’s
Most active
 NEA
 CMEA
 Khosla Ventures
 Kleiner Perkins
 NGEN Partners
 DFJ
 Foundation Capital
 Quercus Trust
Others
 Google Ventures,
 Foundation Capital
 Northgate Capital
 Argonaut Private Equity
 Exxon
 Sequoia Capital
 Foundation Capital
 Fjord Capital
 Mesirow Capital
2009 Funding trends
• Middle stage rounds saw difficulty for less-than-profitable
companies
• Increase in early stage (>110 deals) series A & seed rounds
26
2009 VC Funding
 $4.9B in green
technologies
• Down from $7.6B
• 356 deals
 Solar power is leading
at $1.4B in 84 deals
• Followed by biofuels at
$976M in 44 rounds
Greentech Media Inc.
27
2009 VC Funding
Top Deals





Silver Spring Network - $100M
Solyndra - $198M
Tesla Motors - $83M
Suniva $75M C round
Serious Materials - $60M
Greentech Media Inc.
28
Key Countries & Careers Paritosh
 Government Policies Update
• US Programs
• Copenhagen
• Global trends
 PV Technology & Roadmap
 US Market Dynamics
• Status & Trends
• VCs & Funding
 Key Countries
• Germany
• Spain
• China
• India
 Career Options
• Solar Subgroup landings
 Summary & coordinator
Dave Fraser
Dinah Cheng
Paritosh Rajora
Wen-Ben Chou
Ranjeet Pancholy
Dinah Cheng
Ravinder Sachdeva
Ranjeet Pancholy
Mike Hsieh
Ranjeet Pancholy
Steve Campbell
Keith Imai
Keith Imai
29
German Government to Lower
Subsidies
 Subsidies for mature technology likely to decrease by mid
2010
 Coalition suggests drastic cut by 30% in Feed-in-tariffs
 Four different models for subsidy reduction
•
•
•
•
BSW (German Solar Business Association) suggests 3-5%
Solar World: Systems >1500MW, 1% reduction every 200mW
Sunpower suggested 1% reduction every 300MW
15% drop in feed-in tariffs synchronized to production cost at
double of PV production
 Farmer’s Association pushing for elimination of
undeveloped area subsidies to operators of installations
• First Solar uses undeveloped areas for their systems
• Will push for rooftops - issue becomes cadmium on roof-tops?
30
Recycling First Solar’s CdTe Cells
 Farm fire in 2008 required panels to be disposed
as hazardous waste
 Will not subsidize plant unless panels are recycled
 Recycling program in place to recycle toxic Cd
 Recycling cost is part of production costs
Collection
Shredder
Hammer mill
Film removal:
Acids dissolve
CdTe
Separate Solid
and liquid
Separate glass
and laminates
Glass rinsing
Precipitation
31
Spain
 Started initial boom in solar
technology with subsidies
 China accelerated supply
chain manufacturing
 Spain capped incentives &
Feed-in tariffs in 2009/2010
• Significant drop in investments
• Worldwide oversupply
 Germany following Spain in
capping incentives
Ref: Metro Solar Spain
32
China: Industry Landscape







GDP growing ~10%/year
Critical pollution problems
8 IPO’s since 2005
100+ solar fabs built
~49% of worldwide polysilicon volume in 2009
~30% worldwide solar cell volume
Vertical integration of solar industry
• Value chain covers polysilicon, wafers, solar
cells, and solar PV modules
• Infrastructure includes solar production
equipment and materials
 Polysilicon production investments slowing down
• Worldwide oversupply in 2009
33
Government Support to Industry
 $3.2/W subsidy for Building Integrated PV
 Golden Sun Demonstration Projects - 600MW
capacity
 Approved 10MW solar farm project in western
China targeting $0.16/KWh
 Power companies started active acquisition of land
for utility scale solar farms in 2009
34
China: New Energy Stimulus Plan
 Establish 15% renewable energy by 2020
 Reduce carbon emission 40-45% per GDP from 2005
level by 2020
 Increase installed solar power capacity from 100MW in
2009 to 20GW by 2020
• ~62% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
 Government to invest ~$450B in New Energy Industry
• Nuclear, wind and solar
 Experts estimated government to ultimately invest $700B
• Will attract ~$1.5T investments from public & private
sectors
35
India





Population: 1.3 billion in 2000
Area: 1/3 of USA
Economic growth: 7-8% per year
300 sunny days per year
450 million people without electricity
•

Electrical energy consumption 660 kWh per capita
•

Use Kerosene / other fuels - 60,000 villages
<10% of USA, <25% of world average
Grid Power Supply Demand gap 10% with 150 GW (2008)
Semi PV Group White Paper – The Solar PV Landscape in India April 2009
36
India Solar Mission 2020
 Solar power target: 20 GW by 2020
• 1-1.5 GW by 2012
 India Investment $20B for 30 year plan
 Rajasthan set 35,000 km2 area for solar
37
Solar System Uses: 2009
 Street lighting systems: 54,795
 Residential home lighting
systems: 434,692
 Lanterns: 697,419
 Water heating systems: 140 km2
of collector area
 PV water pumps: 200-3K
• Use < 1.8KW
 Panels – installed 7148
 PV power plants: 2.1 MW
Reference: Solar PV landscape in India - PV Group Market
white paper, April 2009
38
US Solar Energy Careers




Rapid projected growth makes career look good
Transition possible because it’s new industry
Get training (ex. www.solarliving.org)
Understand cost/benefits of solar (especially Sales people)
From: Charles Liu
39
(EverbrightSolar)
Job Description
Requirements Example
Process Engineer
•Educational requirement: Typically advanced
degree in Chemical Engineering, Materials
Science, or other related engineering
disciplines
•Experience with deposition techniques like
CVD, and PVD
Systems Engineer
•Educational requirement: BS/MS in Electrical
Engineering
•Understanding of control theory and power
systems
Strong preference for C10 or C46 license,
NABCEP installer certified (from Adecco job
description)
Also see:
From: Green Jobs Guidebook,
www.EDF.org/cagrreenjobs
•http://www.greenforall.org/resources/green-jobs-guidebook
40
MEDIUM
LOCATION:
COMPAN BUSINES
COMPANY
Technology
HQ
c-Si
Los Gatos, CA
Santa Clara,
CA
Akeena
Applied Materials
AUSRA
Solar thermal
Borrego Solar
BrightSource Energy
DayStar
Technologies
CIGS
Newark, CA
First Solar
CdTe
AZ
GreenVolts
Lithium
CPV
batteries
SF, CA
NanoSolar
Primestar Solar
Paul Brown
(Rec)
Ronda
knows
CA
CA
MiaSole
vac. CIGS
atmos. CIGS
REC Solar
# Emp
120
Thom as
Nguyen
Mfg in OH
Santa Clara,
CA
CA
CO
San Luis
Obispo
250
Leo Volpe
knows
Carol a
60
Em ers on
knows
250
Paul Brown
knows Lin
Recurrent Energy
SF, CA
Real Goods Solar
Hopland, CA
250
Mtn View, CA
50
Sanyo
c-Si
Skyline Solar
CPV
SolFocus
CPV
SolarCity
-
Solaria
CPV?
Local
Companies
120
Berkeley, CA
Solar thermal
medallurgical
grade Si
CaliSolar
Other
Recruiters
, HR,
other
SPAIN; Mfg
Mtn View, CA
in AZ
Berkeley, LA,
Foster City, CA
Sacto
420
Tracked by CTF Solar
Subgroup
Leo Volpe
knows
Patrick
Donner
Frem ont, CA
SolarOne
Leo Volpe
knows
Paul
Brian
Okam oto
knows Joe
Solexa
SoloPower
Solyndra
CIGS
Frem ont, CA
41
Solar Subgroup Landings







Person
Company
Occupation
Ellen Heian
Eric Berkenkotter
Margo Craca
Roberto Valotta
Sanjay Pejavar
Sterling Goyer
Tammy Lee
ZT Plus
Solyndra
Applied Materials
Silver Spring Net
Deeya Eng.
Solyndra
Solyndra
Scientist
Process Eng.
Process Eng.
QA Eng.
QA Eng.
Process Eng.
Process Eng.
Sungevity
Sun-Tech Power
Apple
Sales
Sales
Biz Dev
 Bruce Karney
 Roy Shaw
 Sofia Velastegui
42
Summary
 Solar industry has been & will continue to
be driven by government policies
 Global grid parity severely constrained by
fossil fuel subsidies
 USA solar VC funding of $1.4B, is largest
green sector (30%)
 Industry growth will continue to create jobs
43
CTF Solar Subgroup
 New members always welcomed
 Meets every Friday: 1:30 – 3:30pm
• At Right Management
 For questions, contact Co-leaders
• Dinah Cheng – dwhcheng@gmail.com
• John Foggiato - gfoggiato@aol.com
• Keith Imai – imai.keith@gmail.com
44