PO377 ETHNIC CONFLICT AND
POLITICAL VIOLENCE
Week 4: The Former Yugoslavia
Pop Quiz

1.
2.
3.
Was the federal Yugoslavia a doomed
project from the start?
Yes
No
Not yet sure
Former Yugoslavia, political map (1996)
Former Yugoslavia, ethnic majorities (1992)
Lecture Outline
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Overview
Contested Explanations
The Balkans before ‘Yugoslavia’
 19th century nationalisms
The Kingdom of Yugoslavia: Ethnic Relations in a Centralised State
Communist Federal Yugoslavia: Nationalism Resolved or Repressed?
Collapse of Yugoslavia
 Fall of communism and resurgence of ethno-nationalism
 Descent into war
Wars and Peace Agreements
 Croatia
 Bosnia-Herzegovina: three-way split
 Serbia and Kosovo: unresolved
Conclusions
Overview
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Current populations: Serbia 9.9 million (incl. approx. 1.8-2.4
million in Kosovo); Croatia 4.4 million; Bosnia 3.8 million;
Slovenia 2 million; Macedonia 2 million; Montenegro 632,000.
A series of different secessionist wars with various combatant
groups (state and non-state) were fought at different points
1991-2001.
The Yugoslavian federal state broke up into 6 new states (7
if Kosovo is acknowledged).
Tens of thousands of people killed and hundreds of
thousands displaced from their homes and areas. Possibly
30,000+ women and girls subjected to sexual violence and
many men and boys as well.
Contested Explanations
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Primordial analysis: The Balkan region has been a site of
conflicting identities and clashing political goals for many
centuries, with a long history of inter-group hostility and
hatred; the communist state merely kept the lid on a pressure
cooker of hatred. (Think about Samuel Huntington and his
Clash of Civilisations, where he views the Balkans as a
civilisational fault line.) The end of the Cold War and
collapse of communism merely removed the lid and let the
mess spill out. (Robert Kaplan’s Balkan Ghosts is the bestknown exposition of such a view on Yugoslavia – see week
9’s reading list.)
Contested Explanations (2)
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Non-primordial analysis: There is a history of different
peoples of the Balkan region living together peacefully.
There are different emphases/explanations within the nonprimordialist camp.
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Instrumentalist argument: about the strategic use of ethnonationalism by elites to maintain or gain power during a time of
enormous upheaval.
Constructionist argument: ethnicity is only one identity of several
that are significant to people ordinarily and ethnic attachment
varies; identities are amenable to change.
Security dilemma: focus on anarchy and state breakdown; fear
and insecurity rather than hatred.
(I recommend you read Oberschall 2000.)
The Balkans before ‘Yugoslavia’
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Slovenes, Croats, Serbs, Muslim Slavs, Macedonians
are all “southern Slavs”; Albanians are not. Croats
became Catholic and Serbs became Eastern
Orthodox. Heretical tradition (Bogomil Church) in
Bosnia.
Ottoman conquests of 14th and 15th centuries led to
migration waves and some religious conversion
(Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania). Muslims developed
distinct identities. People defined by religion;
religion and national identity became linked.
The Balkans before ‘Yugoslavia’ (2)
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Serbian Orthodox Church given influence over huge
area; nurtured Serbian national consciousness.
Late 17th century renewed Hapsburg-Ottoman
fighting and failed Serbian uprising; in 1690 Serbs
fled Kosovo and Macedonia.
Ethnic composition of the Balkans changed
throughout 18th century.
The Balkans before ‘Yugoslavia’ (3)
19th century nationalisms
 Serb nationalism developed in armed struggle against
Ottoman rule. Serbs dispersed throughout region. Idea
of ‘Greater Serbia’ develops.
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Croatian nationalism as reaction against expansionist
non-Slav nationalisms. 3 movements:
1) for federal Austro-Hungarian Empire;
 2) Frankist Party, for independent Croatian state including
Bosnia;
 3) for federal system with Serbs; idea of Yugoslavia (known
as Illyrianism and later as Yugoslavism).

The Kingdom of Yugoslavia: Ethnic Relations
in a Centralised State
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World War I: Serbia successfully fights Austria-Hungary.
Austro-Hungarian Empire collapses.
1918: the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes forms
(Kingdom of Yugoslavia from 1929). 42% Serb, 23% Croat,
8% Slovene, 5% Macedonian, 5% Bosnian Muslim (now
Bosniaks), 4% Albanian. (46.7% Eastern Orthodox, 39.3%
Roman Catholic, 11.2% Muslim.)
New kingdom was highly centralised unitary constitutional
monarchy. This ‘was not a union of equals. Instead, they came
together as victors and vanquished’ (Bennett 1995, p. 32).
The Kingdom of Yugoslavia: Ethnic Relations
in a Centralised State (2)
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Serbs dominated positions of power. Conflicting
nationalisms and ethno-political conflict exacerbated by
economic inequalities between different regions.
WWII Yugoslavia invaded by Nazi Germany. Nazi
puppet state (Ustaša regime) est. in Croatia with control of
Bosnia. Serbian nationalist Chetniks resist German
occupation and persecute Croatians and Bosnians.
1943 Josip Tito leader of Yugoslavian resistance and
head of Communist Party. Brought anti-nationalist Partisan
Party to power end of WWII.
Communist Federal Yugoslavia: Nationalism
Resolved or Repressed?
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Federal People’s Republic of Yugoslavia formed
1946: 6 republics: Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, BosniaHerzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia; 2 Serbian
autonomous provinces, Kosovo and Vojvodina.
Communism supposed to make ethno-nationalism
irrelevant.
Delicate ethno-national balancing act with much
Serb dominance.
Communist Federal Yugoslavia: Nationalism
Resolved or Repressed? (2)
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1960s loosening state controls. Calls for
national self-determination from all the
republics + Muslims and Albanians.
Nationalist movements crushed 1971;
economic and political reforms.
Political and economic paralysis in 1970s +
economic downturn.
Collapse of Yugoslavia
Fall of communism and resurgence of ethno-nationalism
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Tito died in 1980 and Yugoslavia in further rapid economic
decline.
Renewed growth in Serbian elite power (e.g. Yugoslav National
Army purged itself of non-Serbs 1986-1992).
Previously many multicultural and tolerant Yugoslav cities. Now
deliberate stirring up of ethnic tensions by political leaders to
maintain their power bases once communism declined.
Slobodan Milošević (Serbia) and Franjo Tudjman (Croatia)
continued authoritarian tradition with addition of extreme
ethno-nationalism.
Collapse of Yugoslavia (2)
Descent into war
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1991-92 successively Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia,
Kosovo, and Bosnia-Herzegovina declare independence.
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Brief war in Slovenia June 1991 ending with Brioni
Declaration and Slovene independence.
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Macedonia secedes without violence.
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Note: 1992-2003 Serbia and Montenegro together form
remnant of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; 2003-06
loose federal Union of Serbia and Montenegro; 2006
they become separate states.
Wars and Peace Agreements
Croatia
1)
2)
3)
war between Croatian Serb militias against Croatian
government forces over Serb-held territories in
Krajina and Slavonia (Sept. 1990 to Sept. 1991);
war between JNA with Serb militias against Croatian
army and militias (Sept. 1991 to Jan. 1992); and
attack of Croatian army on remaining Serbs (May
and Aug./Sept. 1995).
Wars and Peace Agreements (2)
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EU: confused and uneven attempts at peace settlement.
UN: Dec. 1991 Vance negotiates Serb-Croat ceasefire,
UN peacekeepers and UN Protected Areas (UNPAs).
Serb Krajina leaders are opposed but betrayed by
Milošević.
1995: UN peacekeepers in UNPAs are reduced and
the USA is supportive of Croatia; Croatia takes UNPAs
and expels Serbs. (See Pavković 2000, chpt. 10.)
Wars and Peace Agreements (3)
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 3-way split
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1991 moves to autonomy and territorial
expansionism by Bosnian Serbs.
March 1992 Bosnian govt declares
independence.
Serbian troops attack (Bosnian Serb volunteers,
Belgrade paramilitaries, then the JNA).
Wars and Peace Agreements (4)
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B-H divided in 3 national groups and parties
(Muslim, Croat, Serb) with different constitutional
goals.
Series of wars:
1)
2)
3)
war between Muslim/Croat coalition against Serb
forces (1992-1993);
Muslim-Croat war and intra-Muslim war (19931994); and
Muslim/Croat then Muslim/Croat/NATO joint
offensive against Serb forces (March-October 1995).
(See Pavković 2000, chpt. 11.)
Wars and Peace Agreements (5)
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Aug./Sept. 1995 NATO air strikes and Muslim/Croat
land attacks when Bosnian Serbs reject peace proposals.
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Nov. 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement.
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49% to 51% division of B-H into Republika Srpska
(Serb Republic) and Federation of Bosnia and
Herzegovina (Muslim-Croat federation). Complicated
confederal system with 2-chamber parliament and
national group vetoes.
(See Pavković 2000, chpt. 11. For more detail on the settlement see
Gow 1997, chpts. 3-4 & 9-11; Bose 2002, chpts. 2 & 4-5; Sokolović
and Bieber (eds.) 2001, chpts. 2-3, all on the week 19 reading list.)
Wars and Peace Agreements (6)
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‘By mid-2000, the enormous international effort to
implement the agreement that ended Bosnia’s civil
war in November 1995 had gone on longer than
the war itself.’
‘[T]he Bosnian war ended with a deeply
dissatisfying compromise among the warring parties
to which they had only acceded under intense
international pressure, especially from the United
States.’
The settlement was ‘ambivalent between its
separatist and integrationist components’.
(Cousens 2002, week 19 reading list.)
Wars and Peace Agreements (7)
Serbia and Kosovo: unresolved
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1989-90 Milošević removes Kosovan autonomy; Kosovan nonviolent resistance movement.
1998 ethnic Albanian rebellion (Kosovo Liberation Army)
against Serbian/Yugoslav rule in Kosovo; violent Serbian police
and military response.
Milošević rejects international mediation; 1999 NATO air
strikes. Serbian forces carry out ‘ethnic cleansing’. Kosovo
administered as UN protectorate.
2006-07 talks fail. Kosovo declares independence Feb. 2008;
Serbia rejects this but many states recognise it. UN’s
International Court of Justice assesses legality of independence
declaration and in 2010 declares this did not breach
international law.
Conclusions
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Following pattern of ex-communist world, politicians tactically
swapped communist rhetoric for ethno-nationalism as a way of
gaining, maintaining, or consolidating their power in a time of
extreme national and international upheaval. Conflict less
about primordial hostilities and more about manipulation of
perceptions.
Serbian elites spoke of a heroic past, portrayed Muslims in
Bosnia and Kosovo as wanting to exterminate Serbs, and
Croats as fascist oppressors. Croatian elites resurrected
elements of their brief fascist past and claimed Serbs wanted
to dominate and control them.
Economic issues: Croats and Slovenes resented by Serbs for
supposedly being wealthier; Croats and Slovenes annoyed at
Serbs ‘draining’ their economic resources. Nationalist Serbian
leaders conflated images of Bosnian Muslims with their past
Ottoman Turk overlords.
Pop Quiz

1.
2.
Should Kosovo be fully recognised as
an independent state and given a seat
at the United Nations?
Yes
No