Searching for the Big Picture:
Systems Theories of Accelerating Change
Stanford Singularity Summit
May 2006  Palo Alto, CA
(Minor Updates Mar 2007)
John Smart, President, ASF
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
A Story in Three Acts
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We’ll consider:
Framework, Picture, Painter
With Correspondence to:
Genes, Environment, Organism (in Organismic Biology)
Development, System, Evolution (in ‘Evolutionary’ Biology)
Rules & Limits, Observed, Observer (in Information Theory)
Laws & Constants, Universe, Intelligence (in Cosmology)
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Act I: The Framework
Intelligence,
MEST Compression, and
Evolutionary Development
Intelligence:
An Evolutionary Process
The ‘Driver’ (Steering Mechanism) of
Accelerating Change
Our Infopomorphic, Biofelicitous,
Accelerating Universe
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The universe is a physical-computational system.
We exist for information theoretic reasons.
We’re here to evolve and develop,
To create, discover, and manage,
To care, count, and act,
To innovate, plan, profit, and predict...
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In a wondrously ordered, elegant, and
surprising environment.
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“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of
Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead)
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The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the
Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960
After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple
universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics.
F=ma
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
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In 1968, Mead predicted we would create
much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million
chip transistors that would run far faster and
more efficiently. He later generalized this
observation to a number of other devices.
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Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
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Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
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De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
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"No one can deny that
a network (a world network)
of economic and psychic
(mental) affiliations is being
woven at ever increasing
speed which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us.
With every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
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Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
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The Developmental Spiral
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts…)
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Classic Predictable Accelerations:
Moore’s Law
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Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon
Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that
computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity
every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost.
This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of
technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by
1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!
There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization
of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals
have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).
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Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures
as a Moore’s-Dependent Process
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Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal
structures by 2002. The actual number (in online
Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
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Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.
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A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost
Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles
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There are many natural cycles:
Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust,
Conflict-Peace…
Ray Kurzweil first noted that a
generalized, century-long Moore’s
Law was unaffected by the U.S.
Great Depression of the 1930’s.
Conclusion: Human-discovered,
Not human-created complexity here.
Not many intellectual or physical
resources are required to keep us on
the accelerating developmental
trajectory.
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Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999
“MEST compression is a rigged game.”
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Henry Adams, 1909:
Our First “Singularity Theorist”
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Adam’s final
Ethereal Phase
would last about
four years, and
"bring Thought to
the limit of its
possibilities."
(Singularity
1921-2025)
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Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998
Trees of Evolution, 2000
Singularity 2130 ±20 years
Singularity 2080 ±30 years
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Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003
The Singularity is Near, 2005
Singularity 2050 ±10 years
Singularity 2045 ±20 years
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MEST Compression:
A Developmental Process
The ‘Engine’ (Motive Force) of
Accelerating Change
The MESTI Universe
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Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information
Increasingly Understood
 Poorly Known
MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever
decreasing MEST resources required for any
standard physical process or computation. The engine
of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less.”
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MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of
Resources” for Leading Edge Computation
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Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient
with each new generation.
Our main candidates for future computational
technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing,
reversible logic, etc.) require little or no energy.
We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient,
sustainable, and virtual cities.
Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed
Service Economies.
Global energy intensity (energy consumption per
capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the
developed world.
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Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
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Apparent ‘Engine’ of Accelerating Change:
 MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density of Information
Emergent Properties:
 Information Intelligence (World Models)
 Information Interdepence (Ethics)
 Information Immunity (Resiliency)
 Information Incompleteness (Search)
An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:
↑ Entropy = ↑ Negentropy
Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information Potential.
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A hidden metapotential may be conserved.
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From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development
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From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development
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Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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A U-Shaped Curve of Change
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Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
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Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ):
A Universal Moore’s Law Curve
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Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Ф
(ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies
Stars (like our Sun)
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
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0.5
2 (counterintuitive!)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
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Smart’s Laws of Technology
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1.Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2.Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a
proprietary or open source development)
3.The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing,
the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck, the third
becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
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These are, of course, just rules of thumb. But the first reminds us we are no longer the
fastest learning substrate on the planet (though we are yet the most complex, at
present). The second reminds us that we don’t control where tech goes ultimately, we
only control (guide consciously, or not) the course of its emergence. The third reminds
us that we usually don’t get our tech right on the first generation. It is therefore
incumbent on designers, and as the innovation-subsidizing public, to realize this and
get us through the dehumanizing early versions as fast as possible.
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“NBICS”: Five Domains for
Strategic Technological Development
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Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology)
Biotech (biotechnology, health care)
Infotech (computing and comm. technology)
Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors)
Sociotech (remaining technology applications)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a
still-early technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on
older, less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every technology has the right time and place for
innovation and diffusion.
First mover and second mover advantages.
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Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech
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"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
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The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
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Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace:
Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers
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Lasers today can made cheaply only in some
areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for
example, UV laser light for cancer detection
and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004
that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen
gas, a device known as a "photonic
crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the
wavelengths previously unavailable.
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Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic
array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle)
acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy
efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of
jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT
and networking revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in
physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why
they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we
remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
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MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts
Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves
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Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
Two orders of magnitude
jump in capacity.
99% duty after 1,000 cycles
Reliable at temp extremes
Cost competitive
What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)
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“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
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Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen.,
Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
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Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption,
is the fastest growing and most efficient component.
Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,
keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.
180+ mpg Prius.
34 miles on battery only.
Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank
filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized
than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities.
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“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006
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MEST Compression Implication:
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
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Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in
itself, how easily it can be developed)
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Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power
of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
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Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our
Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy
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In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."
(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)
Due to principles like superposition, entanglement,
negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum
(electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than
the world of collective electricity.
In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical,
metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly
effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of
materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he
called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and
energy per each given level of functional performance”
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This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
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MEST Compression and Inner Space:
The Final Frontier?
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Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.
Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are:
• Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent)
• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
• A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
versus
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Non-Autonomous ISS
Autonomous Human Brain
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Evolutionary Development:
In Physics, Biology, and Beyond
A New Paradigm for Change
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Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
Evolutionary Development:
The Left and Right Hands of Change
Left Hand
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New Computat’l Phase Space ‘Opening’
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
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Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Differential
Multicellularity
Discovered
Complex Environmental Interaction
Cambrian Explosion (570 mya)
Bacteria 
Insects
Invertebrates
Selection/Emergence/
Phase Space Collapse/
MEST Collapse
Development
Vertebrates
35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since.
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
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For more: Wallace Arthur, John Odling-Smee, Simon Conway Morris, RudyRaff
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Replication, Variation
Natural Selection
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Complex Interaction
Memetic Evolutionary Development
Selection, Convergence
Convergent Selection
MEST Compression
Development
Variations on this ev. dev. model have been proposed for:
Neural arboral pruning to develop brains (Edelman, Neural Darwinism, ‘88)
Neural net connections to see patterns/make original thoughts (UCSD INS)
Neural electrical activity to develop dominant thoughts (mosaics, fighting
for grossly 2D cortical space) (Calvin, The Cerebral Code, 1996)
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Input to a neural network starts with chaos (rapid random signals), then
creates emergent order (time-stable patterns), in both artificial and biological
nets. Validity testing: Hybrid electronic/lobster neuron nets (UCSD INS)
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Evolution vs. Development
“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
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Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints
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Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
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Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels
(Evolution, Systems, and Development)
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The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points
(“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin. MEST
compression of interaction creates the attractors.
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Developmental Biogenesis
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Eric Smith, Santa Fe Institute
 Potential prebiotic chemical reactions form a
vast ‘possibility space’ in the energy landscape.
 A subset of these make self-reproducing and
self-varying chemical cycles, producing
information and permanently modifying the
selection environment (“niche construction”).
 A series of low energy paths (“channels”)
emerge, constraining the landscape.
Q:“What was the problem with the prebiotic Earth
that was solved by the appearance of life?”
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How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
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Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks)
still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
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How Many Wheels on an Automobile are
Developmentally Optimal?
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Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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“Convergent Evolution”:
Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis
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Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid
forms as a standard attractor.
A number of small dinosaurs
(raptors and oviraptors) developed
bipedalism, binocular vision,
complex hands with opposable
thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios
equivalent to modern birds. They
were intelligent pack-hunters of
both large and small animals
(including our mammalian
precursors) both diurnally and
nocturnally. They would likely
have become the dominant
planetary species due to their
superior intelligence, hunting, and
manipulation skills without the K-T
event 65 million years ago.
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Evolution and Development:
Two Universal Systems Processes
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Evolution
Development
Creativity
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Discovery
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
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Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
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The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
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Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities:
Innovation vs. Sustainability
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Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to
Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without generativity creates
sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive
weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without
sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that
is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).
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Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs Development
A Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development?
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Biological Learning Stages
Self-transcendence
(Religion & Death)
Technological Learning Stages
Biotranscension Society
Valuecosm IT Society
/ Self-expression
Metaverse IT Society
/ Self-identity
/ Property
Network IT Society
Manufacturing Society
Agricultural Society
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Angus Maddison’s
Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982
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Services/Network/Information Society
Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)
Network 1.0
“McJobs” & Service
65% of Jobs, 2000’s
Network 2.0
New Middle Class
40% of Jobs, 2030’s
Network 3.0
Consolidation Again
15% of Jobs, 2060’s
Products/Manufacturing Society
Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)
Manufacturing 1.0
Exploitive Jobs
50% of Jobs, 1900’s
Manufacturing 2.0
New Middle Class
35% of Jobs, 1950’s
Manufacturing 3.0
Offshoring/Globalizing
14% of Jobs, 2000’s
Resources/Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)
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Agriculture 1.0
Subsistence Jobs
80% of Jobs, 1820’s
Agriculture 2.0
Family Farms
50% of Jobs, 1920’s
Agriculture 3.0
Corporate Farms
2% of Jobs, 1990’s
See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
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Metaverse/Attention Economy:
The ICT- and CI-Enabled Services Sector
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An Emerging Fourth Global Economic Sector
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US ICT sector was 8% of
GDP in 1998, 11% in
2001, 14% in 2005.
OECD ICT trade, GDP
share, and employment
grow 4-10% a year.
Service Sector is not yet
Metaverse & CI-enabled,
but after 2015, it will be.
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The Framework Challenge
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Building Evo Devo Theory
in an “Evolutionist vs. Creationist” World
Finding globally predictable developmental attractors in a
world of locally unpredictable evolutionary systems.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Act II: The Picture
Acceleration Mechanics,
Immune Systems,
IA and AI
Acceleration Mechanics:
Exp. Growth, S,D & J Curves, Punk Eek,
and Phase Change Singularities
The Anatomy of Accelerating Change
The “S” Curve (Phases BG-MS)
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(Looks like a stretched “S”. Think “Saturation”.)
Example: Logistic Population Growth
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A Saturation Lesson:
Biology vs. Technology
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How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
Los Angeles
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Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence,
Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Global Population Saturation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Global Energy Consumption per Capita
Saturation (Energy Intensity)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
When per capita GDP reaches:
• $3,000 – energy demand
explodes as industrialization
and mobility take off,
• $10,000 – demand slows as the
main spurt of industrialization is
completed,
• $15,000 – demand grows more
slowly than income as services
dominate economic growth and
basic household energy needs
are met,
• $25,000 – economic growth
requires little additional energy.
Later developers, using
“leapfrogging technologies”,
require far less time and energy
to reach equivalent GDP.
Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Terminal Differentiation: Evo Devo in
Homo sapiens is a Saturated Substrate
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
– Biologically-inspired computing. Structural mimicry.
But 21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t
accelerate biological complexity
– Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions
– Terminally differentiated and path dependent.
We’ll never biologically “redesign humans”
– No time, ability or motivation to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead
Cultural immunity to disruptive biointerventions
Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The “B” Curve (Phases BGM-SDR)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
(Looks like a lower case b. Think “biology”.)
Example: Impact of Single Individuals
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Protected Germline, Disposable Somas,
Protected Parameters, Disposable Universes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Devo (Germline, Parameters) vs. Evo (Bodies, Universes)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Protected Germline Cells,
Protected Initial Parameters,
Disposable Somas (Bodies) Disposable Universes
(Kirkwood, 1999)
(Smolin, 1999)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The “J” Curve (Phases LEH)
DRIVER:
Intelligence (Negentropy)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
ENGINE:
MEST Compression
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
HyperbolicAppearing
Phase
(Not to
Scale)
DYNAMIC:
Evolutionary Development
CONSTRAINT:
First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
Some aspects of post-emergent
and post-limit systems can’t be
understood or guided by presingularity systems
HP
= Emergence Singularities
EP = Exponential Point (Knee)
HP = Hyperbolic Point (Wall)
Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Exponential-Appearing
Phase
with Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
EP
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Examples:
Chaisson’s Phi
Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
Linear-Appearing Phase
© 2006 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
quite smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
Note the “knee of the
curve” occurs circa
1850, at the Industrial
Revolution.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology,
Economics, Politics, Technology…
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Eldredge and Gould
(Biological Species)

Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)
(income distribution  technology, econ, politics)
Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo)
80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo)
Suggested Reading:
For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma
For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Bimodal Distribution:
Two Stories of the Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
“Never have so many known so little about so much
(of our technological world).” – James Burke
World Knowledge
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Educational Percentile
“Never have so few known (and taken) so much, and
so many known (and had) so little.” – Various
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Immune Systems:
Universal, Biological, and Technological
A Hidden Protector of Accelerating Change
Networks Breed Immunity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003
Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Network Economy 1.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America as of
2003, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?
Remittances
(From Guest Workers in
U.S. and Canada)
Foreign Direct
Investment
(Corporate)
NGO’s
(Nonprofit Contribs)
Government Aid
(IMF, WB, G8, USAID)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Our Greatest Strategic Interest:
Managing Globalization
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“America has had 200 years to
invent, regenerate, and calibrate
the balance that keeps markets free
without becoming monsters. We
have the tools to make a difference.
We have the responsibility to make
a difference. And we have a huge
interest in making a difference.
Managing globalization is… our
overarching national interest
today and the political party that
understands that first… will own the
real bridge to the future.”
Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and
the Olive Tree: Understanding
Globalization (2000).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap:
Our New Global Defense Paradigm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Core Countries vs the Technologically,
Culturally, and Economically Disconnected
Gap Countries, which together form a
socio-computational “Ozone Hole.”
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground)
of our Global Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sputnik (1957)
Humbot 0.1 (2005)
Humbot 1.0 (2030)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0?
This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Public Transparency:
Privacy vs. Anonymity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Wearcam.org’s
first gen
‘sousveillance’
systems
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
David Brin’s “Panopticon”
The Transparent Society, 1998
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper
currency
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras,
Camera Traps and Mesh Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Red light camera
(Beaverton, OR)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005)
WoodsWatcher, $285
We can buy $200 surveillance
cameras at Wal-Mart (2005).
When are we going to see $20
camera traps for personal property?
When in developing nations?
Rare and previously thought extinct
animals are being discovered.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Digital Transparency:
Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie
clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam,
What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits
(2003) are early examples of “lifelogs,”
(aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for
recording, auto-archiving and autoindexing all life experience.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add
NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this
data begins turning into wisdom.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:
User-Modified 3D Persistent Worlds
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Global Collaboration and
Coexperience Environments
Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others
Streaming video coming 2007.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future Salon in Second Life
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion:
Convergent Technology in a Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters)
Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins)
Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours)
Next Gen: Video recording.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Networked Transparent Weapons
(NTWs) convert security systems
from intrinsically offensive
intrinsically defensive assets.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Intelligence Amplification (IA) and
Autonomous Intelligence (AI):
From Writing to the Digital Twin, or
from the Plow to the Self-Repairing Robot
Collective Bio-Technological Development
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’
a Human-Machine Superorganism
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social
animals are parts of “superorganisms.”
Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their
genetics compel them to construct.
Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Coevolutionary Ideal:
Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Pluralistic
Positive-Sum
Differentiated
“Both/And”
versus
versus
versus
versus
Examples:
Calculator Use
Computer/TV Use
Metaverse Use
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Plutocratic
Zero-Sum
Homogeneous
“Either/Or”
Math Skills
Social/Study Skills
Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Understanding Process Automation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Perhaps 80% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics
(Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
Human contribution (20%?) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings.
Termite Mound
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Conversational Interface (CI):
Circa 2015 Developmental Attractor
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Palo Alto
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
sentence length
is 11 words.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a more efficient
communication modality.
Ananova, 2002
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Post 2015: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
 A time
when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
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Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological may
begin to feel like only growth, not death.
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New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit









Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2040’s
Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Picture Challenge
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Getting Acceleration and Development
Studies (ADS) Funded and Used Globally
There are components (operations research, network
theory, roadmapping), but no formal programs anywhere.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Act III: The Painter
Living With
Forces and Choices
in an Accelerating World
We Have Two Options:
Future Shock or Future Shaping
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance
between innovation and preservation.
Honest dialogs on persistent problems,
tolerance of imperfect solutions. The
ability to avoid both doomsaying and
paralyzing adherence to the status quo.”
― David Brin
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Three Types of Foresight Studies:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit



Futures Studies (Evolutionary Possibility)
– “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives)
Development Studies
– “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes)
Acceleration Studies
– “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive
feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous)
Each is seeing a resurgence of interest in
today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia:
ASF’s Vision for the Future of Foresight
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
For Every Major Subject Area:
Prediction Markets, Delphi, Polling
Schools of Thought (SoT) and Beyond…
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Where are the U.S. College Courses
in Foresight Development?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit





Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Tamkang University
25,000 undergrads
Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan
Like history and
current affairs, futures
studies (15 courses to
choose from) have
been a general
education requirement
since 1995.
Why not here?
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Painter Challenge
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Waking Up to the Accelerating
‘Promise and Peril’ Ahead
We all face the choice of becoming acceleration aware
(“accelaware”). Or not. Future Shock or Future Shaping.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org