What does it take to win?
By: Anna Curtis
Analysis: (graph to the right)
Study:
When it comes to the Oscars, do the chances of a movie or actor winning have anything to do with the year
it’s nominated? Were movies more likely to win all of their nominations in the 40’s than they are now? Are
an actors chances of winning affected by the number of actor nominations received by an individual film?
By comparing the proportion of the number of wins/number of nominations by the year the film was a
candidate for an Oscar, I discovered whether or not the award year has any correlation with the amount of
winnings the film received. I also studied if actors’ chances of winning had anything to do to with the
number of nominations their film received...
Analysis: (graph to the left)
As you can see in the graph above, there
doesn’t seem to be much relation between
the year a movie was in the running for an
Oscar and whether or not it actually won
an award. While the graph may be slightly
skewed to the right, there are still movies
such as The Last Emperor, which was in the
award ceremony in 1987 and won all 9 of its
9 nominations. Gigi, another blockbuster
hit, won all 9 of its nominations, however,
this occurred in 1958, a good 29 years prior
to The Last Emperor’s sweep.
When conducting a correlation
comparison between the two, it is shown
that the correlation between
Wins/Nominations and the Year of the
award ceremony, the correlation coefficient
is -.294 with a p value of .109. This clearly
demonstrates that there is little association
between the year of the award ceremony
and the number of awards won.
Top Movies used in this study: (in order of
most winnings)
Ben-Hur ‘59, Titanic ‘97, West Side Story
‘61, Gigi ‘58, The Last Emperor ‘87, The
English Patient ‘96, Gone With the Wind
‘39, From Here to Eternity ‘53, On the
Waterfront ‘54, My Fair Lady ‘64, Cabaret*
‘72, Gandhi ‘82, Amadeus ‘84, Going My
Way ‘44, The Best Years of Our Lives ’46,
The Bridge on the River Kwai ‘57,
Shakespeare in Love ‘98, Dances With
Wolves ‘90, Schindler’s List ‘93, Out of
Africa ‘85, Star Wars* ‘77, The Sting ‘73,
Patton ‘70, Lawrence of Arabia ‘62, All
About Eve ‘50, Chicago ‘02, An American
in Paris ‘51, Forrest Gump ‘94, The
Godfather Part II ‘74, A Man of All Seasons
‘66, Mrs. Miniver ‘42, A Place in the Sun*
‘51
* Did not win Best Picture
This graph indicates the proportion
of actor winnings over actor
nominations compared to the year.
The years that have zero did not
have a significant amount of actor
nominations in one film during that
year. This graph seems to suggest
that it was more common years ago
for many actors in one film to be
nominated and win awards.
According to this graph only the
years ‘54, ‘57, ‘63, ‘67, ‘74, ‘76,
and ‘02 had significant actor
nominations in a single film.
Chicago received 4 actor
nominations, only winning one in
the 2002 Oscar Award ceremony.
Two Sample T-Test and Confidence Interval:
Two sample T for total win/total nom vs actor win/actor nom
total wi
actor wi
Variable
Wins
Year
Nominati
Wins/Nom
N
31
31
31
31
Mean Median
7.742
7.000
1970.3 1970.0
11.290 11.000
0.6986 0.7000
Minimum Maximum
6.000
12.000
1939.0
2002.0
8.000
15.000
0.4286
1.0000
StDev
0.189
0.231
SE Mean
0.057
0.070
DF = 19
The two sample T -Test above tested the relationship between the mean proportions of total wins/total
nominations vs actor wins/actor nominations. With a p value so high as .26 it is shown that there is not
enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis which stated that the mean proportion of total wins/total
nominations is equal to the mean proportion of actor wins/actor nominations.
Descriptive Statistics:
TrMean
7.593
1970.3
11.296
0.6950
Q1
7.000
1954.0
10.000
0.5833
Mean
0.414
0.309
95% CI for mu total wi - mu actor wi: ( -0.084, 0.293)
T-Test mu total wi = mu actor wi (vs not =): T = 1.16 P = 0.26
Descriptive Statistics:
Variable
Wins
Year
Nominati
Wins/Nom
N
11
11
StDev
1.570
18.8
1.811
0.1522
SE Mean
0.282
3.4
0.325
0.0273
Q3
8.000
1987.0
13.000
0.8000
Variable
Total Noms
Total Wins
Actor noms
Actor Wins
N
Mean Median TrMean
11 11.455 12.000 11.444
11
4.909
6.000
5.111
11 4.818
5.000
4.889
11
1.455
1.000
1.444
Variable
Minimum Maximum
Total No ms
9.000 14.000
Total Wins
0.000
8.000
Actor noms
4.000
5.000
Actor Wins
0.000
3.000
StDev SE Mean
1.572
0.474
2.427
0.732
0.405
0.122
1.036
0.312
Q1
Q3
10.000 13.000
4.000
6.000
5.000
5.000
1.000
2.000
Conclusion:
Based on the information collected, the graphs presented, correlation coefficients and two sample t tests, there does not seem to
be any relationship between the year of a film and the results of the Oscar award ceremony. Films made today have as much a
chance of receiving many nominations and winning awards as they did back in the 1940s. A similar situation is true for actors.
While it seems in the graph that it has become less frequent for many actors in one film to be nominated the proportion of actor
wins over actor nominations is not associated with the proportions of total wins over total nominations, therefore if a film is
lucky enough to get many actors nominated, that does not seem to affect its chances of winning or losing any particular award.
From the data presented here, the Oscars appear to be a rather fair ceremony so all of you actors and actresses out there, stay
confident, your chance is just as good as any...
The movies used in the above graph, the two
sample T test and the descriptive statistics to the
left were the films in the history of the Oscars
who have received the highest number of actor
nominations:
Mrs. Miniver ‘42: Actor Noms 5, Actor Wins 2
All About Eve ‘50: Noms 5, Wins 1
A Streetcar Named Desire ‘51: Noms 4, Wins 3
From Here to Eternity ‘53: Noms 5, Wins 2
On the Waterfront ‘54: Noms 5, Wins 2
Peyton Place ‘57: Noms 5, Wins 0
Tom Jones ‘63: Noms 5, Wins 0
Bonnie and Clyde ‘67: Noms 5, Wins 1
The Godfather Part II ‘74: Noms 5, Wins 1
Network ‘76: Noms 5, Wins 3
Chicago ‘02: Noms 4, Wins 1