Connectivity Levels the Playing Field
Urban and Rural Strategies
CALED Conference
Ken Dozier
Executive Director WESRAC
4/23/2006
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
WESRAC’S Job is to create jobs
KEN DOZIER’S WESRAC TEAM AT USC IS PART OF THE
NATIONAL TRADE ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE (TAA) PROGRAM
THAT HAS RETAINED OR CREATED 48,000 JOBS IN COMMUNITIES
ACROSS THE NATION SINCE 2000
THE TAA PROGRAM PROVIDES 75% OF THE COST OF
TECHINICAL ASSISTANCE TO IMPORT IMPACTED
MANUFACTURERS TO BECOME GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE
KEN IS LOOKING FOR MORE OF THESE MANUFACTURERS WHO
ARE MAKING THE COMMITMENT TO FIGHT COMPETITION,
IMPROVE PROCESSES, AND GROW AND FLOURISH
TAA EQUALS JOBS FOR YOUR COMMUNITY!
WANT TO KNOW MORE?
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Help Ken reach more Manufacturers
fighting Import Competition
Visit our WTAAC website: http://wesrac.usc.edu
The “LITMUS TEST” is the first step a firm takes
to provide us qualifying information:
http://wesrac.usc.edu/wtaac/litmus.html
Still have some questions?
CONTACT: Mary Rhedin (213) 743-4443
EMAIL: wtaac@usc.edu
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
WIRED Project
Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional
Economic Development initiative
"Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys
that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs."
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006
WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED
• Interface with industry/economic
development academia to
support/develop education/training
resources
• Create sustainable innovation
economic development model
• Identify candidate companies for
projects
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
The Future
“When the Rate of Change Outside
is Greater Than the Rate of
Change Inside, The End Is In
Sight”
Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Velocity
“ According to Silicon Valley
CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech
items they manufacture today did not exist
10 months ago”
Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
What is Knowledge ?
Truth
Universal
Knowledge
Belief
Social
Personal
No Debate
Converge on debate
Diverge on debate
Effect
Cause
Cause
10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
The Future
“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30
tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
only 1.5 tons”
“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a
means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”
- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876
“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued
on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949
“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996
catastrophically collapse ”
- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
Source: “The Future is Ours”
Communication of the ACM, March 2001
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Global Competition
1.
2.
3. Finland
4. Luxembourg
5. Netherlands
6. Hong Kong
7. Ireland
8. Sweden
9. Canada
10.Switzerland
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce
Decentralization
Denationalization
Disaggregation
Despacialization
Demassification
Disintermediation
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond
Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Technologies Change Fast
Bio-Tech
Info-Tech
Nano-Tech
Copyright SRI International 2002
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Exponential Economy
An increasing attribute of our knowledge age
Copyright SRI International 2002
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Computing Synergy
Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value
0
2
9
28
Copyright SRI International 2002
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Media Bandwidth
10^11
Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)
10Gig Ethernet
10^4
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
HDTV Video
DV Video
MPEG Video
VHS Video
10^5
Digital Music
10^6
File sharing
Gaming
10^7
Internet Access
10^8
NTSC Video
10^9
Voice
Bandwidth Required
Bits/sec (bps)
10^10
Gigabit Ethernet
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet
Microwave
G3 / Wireless LAN
DSL/ Cable
G2 Wireless
G1 Wireless
What up?
• The United States gave birth to the Internet in the 1990s
• It initially was the world leader in broadband deployment
• By 2001 it had fallen to 4th place among nations in the
world in per capita broadband deployment.
• Now it has plunged to 19th place.
http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601
• Furthermore, the United States has also fallen far behind
the leading nations in access to high-capacity broadband
connectivity, cost per unit of bandwidth, and growth of
broadband subscribers.
• While the United States is still first in absolute number of
broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China.
http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
How important is Broadband?
• The Brookings Institution estimated that
America’s broadband decline could lead to
a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic
productivity over the next decade, as well as
more than 1.2 million jobs that could be
created by better broadband.9
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Cities are getting it
• City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy
FTTU throughout the city.
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384
• Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying
FTTU throughout “all of Paris.”
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547
• The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a
citywide FTTU network that will provide residents
1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity.
http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
The Studies are In
• Applied Economic Studies (AES) performed a rigorous econometric
comparison of the economic development of Lake County, Florida,
and the economic development of several comparable counties in
Florida, in the period after Lake County began to offer municipal
broadband service widely throughout the County.
http://www.aestudies.com/library/econdev.pdf
• AES corrected for population growth and other variables that could
distort the data. AES concluded:
– Our findings are consistent with other analyses postulating that broadband
infrastructure can be a significant contributor to economic growth. The
Bureau of Economic Advisors (along with others) has stated that
broadband infrastructure confers positive, public benefits on the economy,
and our results provide support for presence of large external benefits
from communications networks.
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
THE BALLER HERBST LAW GROUP A PROFESSIONAL
CORPORATION www.Baller.com
March 4, 2006 Re: The Case For Public Fiber-to-the-User Systems
• To stay competitive in the emerging global economy,
America greatly needs a prompt and widespread upgrade
of its advanced telecommunications infrastructure. The
major incumbent telephone and cable companies cannot do
this alone. In similar circumstances a century ago, when
electric power was the must-have technology of the day
and the private electric companies could not electrify
America quickly enough, thousands of municipalities
stepped forward to meet their communities’ own needs.
Now, hundreds of progressive municipalities are ready to
help themselves in the broadband area.
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Case for WiFi
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
The Numbers Looks Good
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Americas Most Wired Town
In 2000,
Blacksburg, VA
Total population:
43,849
Total Households:
15,319
Source: Demographic Profile BEV, Andrea Kavanaugh
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Blacksburg’s Telecommunication Philosophy
• Public has funded parks, roads,
libraries, safety and sanitation
for over 50 years.
• Every service was once
provided by the private sector
• Public took over to protect
common good
• Public Investment in telecommunications is
necessary for viability in the Information
economy.
Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Blacksburg's Level Playing Field
• Regulated monopoly service
providers invested infrastructure
in a risk free environment with
a guaranteed rate of return.
• In many communities this is a source of
income
• Local and regional entrepreneurial start-ups
must compete against established monopolies.
Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Blacksburg’s Edge
• Modestly Invest in four low risk
telecommunications areas.
• Allows startups access to the
infrastructure needed to
remain viable in the Information Economy.
• This has:
–
–
–
–
Spurred further private sector investment
Created jobs
Expanded the tax base
Provided greater choice in services
Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Community Investments
Community investment
in duct allows small and regional
entrepreneurial telcom companies
to compete with “old” monopoly
services providers
Duct
Date exchange Points
Multimedia
Service Access points, keep local
video, voice, and Internet data
traffic within the community
which reduce costs for all in
the community
may be provided
by either the community or the
service provider. All present and future
voice, video, and data services can be
delivered to the homes on a single
fiber pair
Dark Fiber
Co-location
facilities
Co-location facilities
provide a place for service
equipment. Shared facilities
reduce cost for all.
Source: Micheal Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
High Speed Services
High
Burst
Frame
Relay
SMDS
X.25
Myrinet
ISDN
DSL
ATM/
BISDN
Switched
T-Carriers
Dial
up
Dedicated Private line
and Ethernet
Low
Burst
64 K
1.5M
45M
150M
600M
bps
Source: Broadband Communication Systems, Conrad
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
1.6G
Smart Building Project
The connection point in each cubicle / office
• ATM to the desktop.
• A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next
generation high-speed bandwidth requirements
like streaming video and distributive computing.
• Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.
• The 6 packs
• 4 Category 7 cable
• 1 Fiber Optic
• 1 Coax Cable
• Energy and Efficiency
Image courtesy of Johnson Controls
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Broadband over Powerlines (BPL)
• A third alternative to cable company or from the
local telephone company for broadband.
• Millions of miles of powerlines already in place.
Reach people left out by cable and telephone
companies.
• BPL improves efficiency to power companies
with interactivity.
• Utilities can quickly identify where outages
have taken place, read meters remotely, and
conduct preventive maintenance.
Source: The Christian Science Monitor,
“Web access may be as lose as an electrical outlet”
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
High Performance Grid Computing
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Blacksburg Supercomputer
• Virginia Tech created cluster of 1,100
regular desktop Power Mac G5s.
• Performance of 10 teraflops and peak of 17
teraflops
• January 2004, rank its as the 3rd fastest
supercomputer in the world.
• Built with a budget of less than 5 million
dollars
• Only needed 3,000 square feet with the use
of small efficient rack-mounted cooling
systems with outdoor chillers.
Source: VirginiaTech Research Division
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Assessing Your Technology
After-Technology
(Customer Facing)
Before Technology
(Non-Customer Facing)
Industry Adoption of Technology
CIO Magazine June 2002
CEO Not Involved
CEO Involved
Executive’s Approach to Technology
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering
Contact Information
For more information, please write:
kdozier@usc.edu
WESRAC USC Viterbi School of Engineering