BUS 530: ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ANALYSIS LECTURE: 1 Introduction and Data of Macroeconomics 1 Course Overview Prerequisites Bus 525 Requirements and Grading Four class tests (20%) One midterm (20%) Paper (20%) Final (40%) Class Materials N Gregory Mankiw. Macroeconomics. Sixth Edition. Web-page: http://fkk.weebly.com Office: NAC 751 Office hours: Friday 2pm-3pm, Sunday 5pm-6:30 pm. 2 Activity Schedule : BUS 530 Class Date 1 27May 2 3 June 3 10 June 4 14 June(Regular ST) 5 17 June 6 24 June 7 1 July 8 8 July 9 15 July 10 22 July 11 29 July 12 5 August 13 10 Aug-30 Aug Exams Test/Paper Class test 1 Mid-term Class test 2 Class test 3 Class test 4 Final Paper 3 Make-up Policy • There will be only one make-up for all examinations (midterms and final, no make-up for class tests ) towards the end of the course to accommodate force majeure. All examination dates are pre-announced. Please make necessary arrangements with your office. • Historically, the performance of students taking make-up examinations were always poorer compared to students taking examinations on schedule. • I hope you will appreciate that it is not practical to offer a customized course for any or group of individual student(s). 4 Learning Objectives We will begin with: the issues macroeconomists study the tools macroeconomists use some important concepts in macroeconomic analysis 5 Important Issues in Macroeconomics Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues: Why does the cost of living keep rising? Why are millions of people unemployed, even when the economy is booming? What causes recessions? Can the government do anything to combat recessions? Should it? 6 Important Issues in Macroeconomics Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues: What is the government budget deficit? How does it affect the economy? Why does countries such as the U.S. have such a huge trade deficit and China have huge trade surplus ? Why are so many countries poor? What policies might help them grow out of poverty? 7 The Historical Performance of Bangladesh Economy Real GDP per capita of Bangladesh 600 2000 USD 550 500 450 400 350 300 Year Source: Bangladesh Bank 8 GDP versus Population Growth Rates in the 1980’s GDP Growth Rate in the 1980’s GDP and Population Growth Rates 7.0 7.00 Growth Rate of GDP (%) 5.94 5.18 6.00 5.81 5.00 4.80 5.0 3.80 3.73 2.00 3.22 2.61 2.38 3.22 3.00 4.02 3.0 4.15 4.00 4.25 2.16 2.15 2.50 2.33 1.00 1.37 0.00 1970's 1.0 1980's 1990's 2000's GDP Growth Rate Population Growth Rate Source: BBS and World Bank 9 The Historical Performance of Bangladesh Economy Real GDP Growth Rate 7 6.63 6.5 Growth rate of GDP (%) 6.27 6 6.66 6.43 6.21 5.96 5.88 5.83 5.5 5.27 5.26 5 4.5 4.42 4 3.5 3 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 GDP Growth Rate Source: Bangladesh Bank 10 Growth rate remains robust…2010 12 10.4 10 8.8 Growth Rate of GDP (%) 8 8 6.1 6 4.1 4 2 0 Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka China 11 The Historical Performance of Bangladesh Economy Bangladesh Inflation Rate 12.00 10.00 Percentage 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Source: Bangladesh Bank 12 Inflation situation Comparison of Inflation Rate on April '12 Rate of inflation (year to year) 12 10.86 10.36 10.8 10 8 5.5 6 3.98 4 2 0 • Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka China Source: Central bank of respective country The Historical Performance of Bangladesh Economy Bangladesh Unemployment Rate 5 Percentage 4 3 2 1 0 1984 1985 1986 1989 1991 Year 1996 2000 2003 2005 The unemployment rate of Bangladesh does not show the correct picture. According to CIA Factbook, 40% are under employed. 14 Trend in the value of Bangladeshi Taka against US $ 90 82 80 70 60 53.96 50 40 35.68 30 20 16.26 10 7.97 0 1973-74 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 Source: Bangladesh Bank 15 U.S. Real GDP Per Capita (2000 dollars) 40,000 9/11/2001 First oil price shock 30,000 long-run upward trend… 20,000 Great Depression Second oil price shock 10,000 World War II 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 16 U.S. Inflation Rate (% per year) 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 17 U.S. Unemployment Rate (% of labor force) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 18 Why Learn Macroeconomics? 1. The macroeconomy affects society’s well-being. In the US, each one-point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with: 920 more suicides 650 more homicides 4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions 3300 more people sent to state prisons 37,000 more deaths increases in domestic violence and homelessness 19 Why Learn Macroeconomics? 2. The macroeconomy affects your well-being. In most years, wage growth falls when unemployment is rising. change from 12 mos earlier 4 5 3 3 1 2 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -5 -2 -3 1965 -7 1970 1975 unemployment rate 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 percent change from 12 mos earlier 5 2005 inflation-adjusted mean wage (right scale) 20 How Economists Think? Economists use models to understand what goes on in the economy. Economic models: …are simplified versions of a more complex reality •irrelevant details are stripped away …are used to •show relationships between variables •explain the economy’s behavior •devise policies to improve economic performance 21 Endogenous vs. Exogenous Variables • The values of Endogenous variables are determined in the model. • The values of Exogenous variables are determined outside the model: the model takes their values & behavior as given. • In the model of supply & for cars, d demand s endogenous: P, Q , Q exogenous: Y , Ps 22 A Multitude of Models No one model can address all the issues we care about. e.g., our supply-demand model of the car market… can tell us how a fall in aggregate income affects price & quantity of cars. cannot tell us why aggregate income falls. So we will learn different models for studying different issues (e.g., unemployment, inflation, long-run growth). For each new model, you should keep track of its assumptions which variables are endogenous, which are exogenous the questions it can help us understand, and those it cannot 23 What is a Macro Model? • A macro model is a mathematical structure that describes the economy. A mathematical structure is a set of equations, which allow us to understand the economy more fully and to predict what happens to it. 24 Feature of a Good Macro Model • Should include the variable that we want to predict • Should capture the most important factors whose effects we want to determine • Its equations should be consistent with the way the variables are defined and measured • Its equations should be easily defended • Should make predictions that are qualitatively in line with the real world • Should be easy to use 25 A Simple Sample Model Y=C+I+G Here, Y = income C = consumption I = investment G = government spending This comes from the definition of GDP and the way it is measures. Remember, that GDP is a measure of output, income and spending 26 Another Simple Sample Model C = 0.9 (Y – T) It relates consumption to income taxes. When income tax is deducted from a person’s paycheck, disposable income is found. The equation suggests people spend 90% of their disposable income and save the rest 27 Class Exercise 1 1. Solve for Y, given G = 2000 T=2000 I = 900 2. What is Y, if taxes fall from 2000 to 1900? 28 The Data of Macroeconomics Now, we will discuss… …the meaning and measurement of the most important macroeconomic statistics: – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The Unemployment Rate 29 GDP, CPI, Unemployment Rate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services newly produced in a country in a given period of time. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the level of prices. The Unemployment Rate tells us the fraction of workers who are unemployed. 30 Gross Domestic Product: Expenditure and Income Two definitions: – Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and services. – Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production. Expenditure equals income because every Taka spent by a buyer becomes income to the seller. Income Expenditure and the Circular Flow Income (Tk.) Labor Firms Households Goods Expenditure (Tk.) 32 Value Added Definition: A firm’s value added is the value of its output minus the value of the intermediate goods the firm used to produce that output. Class Exercise 2 – A farmer grows a bushel of wheat and sells it to a miller for $1.00. – The miller turns the wheat into flour and sells it to a baker for $3.00. – The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00. – The engineer eats the bread. Compute & compare value added at each stage of production and GDP Final goods, Value added, and GDP • GDP = value of final goods produced = sum of value added at all stages of production. • The value of the final goods already includes the value of the intermediate goods, so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double-counting. Rules for computing GDP 1) To compute the total value of different goods and services, the national income accounts use market prices. Thus, if If apples cost $0.50 each and oranges cost $1.00 each GDP = (Price of apples Quantity of apples) + (Price of oranges Quantity of oranges) = ($0.50 4) + ($1.00 3) GDP = $5.00 2) Used goods are not included in the calculation of GDP. 3) The treatment of inventories depends on if the goods are stored or if they spoil. If the goods are stored, their value is included in GDP. If they spoil, GDP remains unchanged. When the goods are finally sold out of inventory, they are considered used goods (and are not counted). 36 Rules for Computing GDP 4) Intermediate goods are not counted in GDP– only the value of final goods. Reason: the value of intermediate goods is already included in the market price. Value added of a firm equals the value of the firm’s output less the value of the intermediate goods the firm purchases. 5) Some goods are not sold in the marketplace and therefore don’t have market prices. We must use their imputed value as an estimate of their value. For example, home ownership and government services. 37 Real GDP Versus Nominal GDP The value of final goods and services measured at current prices is called nominal GDP. It can change over time either because there is a change in the amount (real value) of goods and services or a change in the prices of those goods and services. Hence, nominal GDP or Y = P y, where P is the price level and y is real output– and remember we use output and GDP interchangeably. Real GDP or, y = YP is the value of goods and services measured using a constant set of prices. 38 Real GDP is computed in our apple and orange economy. For example, if we wanted to compare output in 2002 and output in 2003, we would obtain base-year prices, such as 2002 prices. Real GDP in 2002 would be: (2002 Price of Apples 2002 Quantity of Apples) + (2002 Price of Oranges 2002 Quantity of Oranges). Real GDP in 2003 would be: (2002 Price of Apples 2003 Quantity of Apples) + (2002 Price of Oranges 2003 Quantity of Oranges). Real GDP in 2004 would be: (2002 Price of Apples 2004 Quantity of Apples) + (2002 Price of Oranges 2004 Quantity of Oranges). 39 Example GDP 2008 (nominal) = 500 * 6 + 200 * 30 = 9000 GDP 2009 (nominal) = 600 * 5 + 150 * 60 = 12000 GDP 2009 (real) = 600 * 6 + 150 * 30 = 8100 So nominal GDP rose, while real GDP actually fell 40 Chain-Weighted Measure of Real GDP In some cases, it is misleading to use base year prices that prevailed 10 or 20 years ago (i.e. computers and college). In 1995, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis decided to use chain-weighted measures of real GDP. The base year changes continuously over time. This new chain-weighted measure is better than the more traditional measure because it ensures that prices will not be too out of date. Average prices in 2001and 2002 are used to measure real growth from 2001 to 2002.Average prices in 2002 and 2003are used to measure real growth from 2002 to 2003 and so on. These growth rates are united to form a chain that is used to compare output between any two dates. 41 Chain-Weighted Real GDP Over time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically. In essence, chain-weighted real GDP updates the base year every year, so it is more accurate than constant-price GDP. Your textbook usually uses constant-price real GDP, because: the two measures are highly correlated. constant-price real GDP is easier to compute. 42 Components of Expenditure Y = C + I + G + NX Total demand for domestic output (GDP) is composed of Investment spending by businesses and households Consumption spending by households Government purchases of goods and services Net exports or net foreign demand This is the called the national income accounts identity. 43 Bangladesh GDP Composition, 2009 - 2010 Tk. crore % of GDP Consumption BDT 554771 79.9% Investment 169511 24.41 Government 110523 15.38 Net Exports -62093 -8.9 Source: Bangladesh Bank & Unnayan Onneshon 44 Consumption (C) – Durable goods Definition: The value of all goods and services bought by last a long time ex: cars, home households. Includes: appliances – Nondurable goods last a short time ex: food, clothing – Services work done for consumers ex: dry cleaning, air travel. 45 U.S. Consumption, 2005 $ billions % of GDP Consumption $8,745.7 70.0% Durables 1,026.5 8.2 Nondurables 2,564.4 20.5 Services 5,154.9 41.3 Investment (I) Definition 1: Spending on [the factor of production] capital. Definition 2: Spending on goods bought for future use Includes: – Business Fixed Investment Spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & services. – Residential Fixed Investment Spending on housing units by consumers and landlords. – Inventory Investment The change in the value of all firms’ inventories. 47 U.S. investment, 2005 $ billions Investment Business fixed Residential Inventory $2,105.0 % of GDP 16.9% 1,329.8 10.6 756.3 6.1 18.9 0.2 Investment vs. Capital Note: Investment is spending on new capital. Example (assumes no depreciation): – 1/1/2006: economy has $500b worth of capital – during 2006: investment = $60b – 1/1/2007: economy will have $560b worth of capital 49 Stocks vs. Flows A stock is a quantity measured at a point in time. Flow Stock E.g., “The U.S. capital stock was $26 trillion on January 1, 2006.” A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time. E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2006.” 50 Stocks vs. Flows - examples Stock Flow a person’s wealth a person’s annual saving # of people with college degrees # of new college graduates this year the govt debt the govt budget deficit 51 Class Exercise 3 Stock or flow? • the balance on your credit card statement • how much you study economics outside of class • the size of your compact disc collection • the inflation rate • the unemployment rate 52 Government Spending (G) • G includes all government spending on goods and services.. • G excludes transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services. 53 U.S. Government Spending, 2005 Govt spending Federal $ billions % of GDP $2,362.9 18.9% 877.7 7.0 Non-defense 290.6 2.3 Defense 587.1 4.7 1,485.2 11.9 State & local Net exports: NX = EX – IM def: The value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM). Source: Bangladesh Bank 55 Class Exercise 4 Suppose a firm • produces $10 million worth of final goods • but only sells $9 million worth. Does this violate the expenditure = output identity? 56 Why Output = Expenditure • Unsold output goes into inventory, and is counted as “inventory investment”… …whether or not the inventory buildup was intentional. • In effect, we are assuming that firms purchase their unsold output. 57 GDP: An important and versatile concept We have now seen that GDP measures – total income – total output – total expenditure – the sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goods 58 Other Measurements of Income Gross National Product (GNP): Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where located. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationality. (GNP – GDP) = (factor payments from abroad) – (factor payments to abroad) Net National Product (NNP), we subtract the depreciation of capital-- the amount of the economy’s stock of plants, equipment, and residential structures that wears out during the year: NNP = GNP – Depreciation National Income = NNP- Indirect Business Taxes Personal Income = National Income- Corporate Profits- Social Security contributions-Net Interest+ Dividends + Govt. Transfer +Personal Interest Income Disposable Personal Income = Personal Income – Personal Tax 59 (GNP – GDP) as a percentage of GDP selected countries, 2010 U.S.A. Bangladesh Brazil China India U.K. 0.40% 4.31% -14.29% -3.39% -5.88% 4.35% Source: World Bank 60 Real vs. Nominal GDP • GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced. • Nominal GDP measures these values using current prices. • Real GDP measure these values using the prices of a base year. 61 Class Exercise 3 2006 2007 2008 P Q P Q P Q good A $30 900 $31 1,000 $36 1,050 good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205 • Compute nominal GDP in each year. • Compute real GDP in each year using 2006 as the base year. 62 Answers Nominal GDP multiply Ps & Qs from same year 2006: $46,200 = $30 900 + $100 192 2007: $51,400 2008: $58,300 Real GDP multiply each year’s Qs by 2006 Ps 2006: $46,200 2007: $50,000 2008: $52,000 = $30 1050 + $100 205 63 Real GDP Controls for Inflation Changes in nominal GDP can be due to: – changes in prices. – changes in quantities of output produced. Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities, because real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices. 64 Bangladesh Nominal and Real GDP, 1950–2006 800000 700000 600000 BDT in crore 500000 400000 Nominal GDP Real GDP 300000 200000 100000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 65 GDP Deflator Nominal GDP GDP deflator = 100 Real GDP The Inflation Rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices. One measure of the price level is the GDP Deflator, defined as Nominal GDP measures the current Taka value of the output of the economy. Real GDP measures output valued at constant prices. The GDP deflator, also called the implicit price deflator for GDP, measures the price of output relative to its price in the base year. It reflects what’s happening to the overall level of prices in the economy. 66 Class Exercise 4 Nom. GDP Real GDP 2006 $46,200 $46,200 2007 51,400 50,000 2008 58,300 52,000 GDP deflator Inflation rate n.a. • Use your previous answers to compute the GDP deflator in each year. • Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008. 67 Answers Nominal GDP Real GDP GDP deflator Inflation rate 2006 $46,200 $46,200 100.0 n.a. 2007 51,400 50,000 102.8 2.8% 2008 58,300 52,000 112.1 9.1% 68 Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes 1. For any variables X and Y, percentage change in (X Y ) percentage change in X + percentage change in Y Example: If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%. 70 Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes 2. percentage change in (X/Y ) percentage change in X percentage change in Y Example: GDP deflator = 100 NGDP/RGDP. If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%. 71 Consumer Price Index (CPI) • A measure of the overall level of prices • Published by the Bureau of Statistics • Uses: – tracks changes in the typical household’s cost of living – adjusts many contracts for inflation (“COLAs”) – allows comparisons of Taka amounts over time 72 How the Bureau of Statistics constructs the CPI 1. Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods. 2. Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket 3. CPI in any month equals Cost of basket in that month 100 Cost of basket in base period 73 Computing the CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turns the prices of many goods and services into a single index measuring the overall level of prices. For example, suppose that the typical consumer buys 5 apples and 2 oranges every month. Then the basket of goods consists of 5 apples and 2 oranges, and the CPI is: CPI= ( 5 Current Price of Apples) + (2 Current Price of Oranges) ( 5 2002 Price of Apples) + (2 2002 Price of Oranges) In this CPI calculation, 2002 is the base year. The index tells how much it costs to buy 5 apples and 2 oranges in the current year relative to how much it cost to buy the same basket of fruit in 2002. 74 Class Exercise 5 Basket contains 20 pizzas and 10 compact discs. prices: 2002 2003 2004 2005 pizza $10 $11 $12 $13 CDs $15 $15 $16 $15 For each year, compute the cost of the basket the CPI (use 2002 as the base year) the inflation rate from the preceding year 75 Answers 2002 2003 2004 2005 Cost of basket $350 370 400 410 CPI 100.0 105.7 114.3 117.1 Inflation rate n.a. 5.7% 8.1% 2.5% 76 The Composition of the CPI’s “basket” of Bangladesh in 2010 13.50 5.68 Food & beverage 3.79 1.68 5.06 Cloth & foot wear 54.81 Housing & Housing rent Fuel and& Lighting 9.09 Household effect 4.95 Medical Education Miscelleneous Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 77 Reasons Why The CPI may Overstate Inflation • Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen. • Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights. • Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured. 80 The CPI versus the GDP Deflator The GDP deflator measures the prices of all goods produced, whereas the CPI measures prices of only the goods and services bought by consumers. Thus, an increase in the price of goods bought by firms or the government will show up in the GDP deflator but not in the CPI. Also, another difference is that the GDP deflator includes only those goods and services produced domestically. Imported goods are not a part of GDP and therefore don’t show up in the GDP deflator. The final difference is the way the two aggregate the prices in the economy. The CPI assigns fixed weights to the prices of different goods, whereas the GDP deflator assigns changing weights. 81 Two measures of inflation in Bangladesh 10.00 300.00 9.00 250.00 8.00 7.00 Annual Percentage 200.00 6.00 5.00 150.00 GDP Deflator CPI 4.00 100.00 3.00 2.00 50.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 82 Measuring Unemployment The labor force is defined as the sum of the employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population who are in the labor force. Unemployment Rate = Number of Unemployed X 100 Labor Force Labor-Force Participation Rate = Labor Force 100 Adult Population 83 Categories of the population • Employed working at a paid job • Unemployed not employed but looking for a job • Labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons • Not in the Labor force not employed, not looking for work 84 Class Exercise 6 U.S. adult population by group, June 2006 Number employed = 144.4 million Number unemployed = 7.0 million Adult population = 228.8 million Use the above data to calculate the labor force the number of people not in the labor force the labor force participation rate the unemployment rate 85 Summary 1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods & services. 2. Nominal GDP values output at current prices; real GDP values output at constant prices. Changes in output affect both measures, but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP. 3. GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 86 86 slide Summary 4. The overall level of prices can be measured by either – the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a fixed basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer, or – the GDP deflator, the ratio of nominal to real GDP 5. The unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 87 87 slide