ISA – Killing Speed
Electronically
Oliver Carsten
Institute for Transport Studies
University of Leeds
UK
How does ISA operate?
1. Position: a GPSbased navigation
system
2.
Information: a
digital road map
with speed limits
3.
HMI: Tell the driver
the speed limit
4.
Control (if wanted):
a link to the
drivetrain
Evidence from trial after
trial is that this can be
made to work reliably
Driving with ISA reduces crash risk
• Calculation of individual crash risk with
intervening ISA (report to Transport for London,
2006)
• Method:
– By combining observed changes in speed behaviour
on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1)
– With risk of crash involvement given driving speed
on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997)
– We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a
crash
• Answer:
– 19.3% reduction
Attitudes
• Generally supportive public attitudes:
– MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002:
• 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas
• 58% would support non-overridable limiters on
residential streets if that meant road humps
would be removed
• ISA “grows” on those who experience it:
– Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of
drivers reported being more positive towards ISA
after using it than before
– Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that
15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to
using ISA after experience of the system
ISA brings other benefits
• Fuel savings
• CO2 savings
• Potential to reduce journey time
(managed motorways; reduction in
incidents)
• Cheap traffic calming
PROSPER Results:
Benefits and Costs
 Oliver Carsten
 Institute for Transport Studies
 University of Leeds
 UK
The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.
Accident prediction and cost-benefit
analysis
 Six countries — Belgium, Great Britain, France,
NL, Spain and Sweden
 Two major scenarios
– Market driven (those who want ISA fit it)
– Authority driven (first encouragement and
then compulsion)
 Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems
 Procedure:
– Predict traffic growth
– Predict accident risk without ISA
– Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via
change in speed patterns)
– Analyse costs and benefits
Penetration of Voluntary ISA in
Market-Driven Scenario
100
90
Belgium
Britain
France
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Voluntary ISA Penetration (Car Fleet)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
2035
2040
2045
2050
Penetration of Voluntary ISA in
Authority-Driven Scenario
100
90
Belgium
Britain
80
Voluntary ISA Penetration (Car Fleet)
France
70
Netherlands
Spain
60
Sweden
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
2035
2040
2045
2050
Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no
ISA) in 2050
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Belgium
GB
France
Market Scenario
NL
Spain
Authority Scenario
Sweden
Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and
scenario
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Belgium
GB
France
Market Scenario
NL
Spain
Sweden
Authority Scenario
Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035
Implementation of ISA
• Comments at PROSPER seminar
(policy-driven group):
– Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long
• Can we learn some lessons from another
successful technology — seatbelts?
Time line for seatbelts
1949
Nash offers lap belts in USA
1950
Nash withdraws option
1955
Ford and Chrysler offer optional lap belts in USA
1959
Volvo introduces 3-point belt as standard in Sweden
1962
Seatbelt anchors standard in US
1967
GB requires installation of 3 point belts in front
1968
US requires installation of 3 point belts in front
1968
GB requires retrofit of 3 point belts in front on model year 1965 and later cars
1970
Victoria (Australia) mandates use in front and rear
1975
Sweden mandates use in front
1983
GB mandates use in front
Stages
• Stage 1: Voluntary fitment
– Lots of trouble to install
• Stage 2: Required anchorages
– Pioneers adopt
• Stage 3: Required fitment
– Large numbers can voluntarily adopt
• Stage 4: Compulsory usage
The “Tipping Points”
The “Tipping Points” are:
1. Requiring capability
on the vehicle (= the
seatbelt anchorages)
This enables
voluntary fitment
2. Requiring fitment
This enables largescale voluntary usage
But also one crucial
difference with seatbelts:
ISA cannot be used without
an information service
Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates
for front occupants of cars and vans
100
90
80
60
50
40
30
20
10
19
85
19
84
19
83
19
82
19
81
19
80
19
79
19
78
19
77
19
76
19
75
19
74
19
73
19
72
19
71
0
19
70
Percent
70
Conclusions
• “ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures
on the basis of international scientific research and best
practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a
reduction in transport crashes and casualties.”
• ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty
reduction
• ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2
stages of deployment:
Stage 1:
– A pan-European speed limit information service
– A standard link between speed limit information and
vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation
Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable
speed limiters)
Stage 2:
– Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA
One last point
• Do we need a new name for ISA?
– How likely is that a customer will walk into
the showroom and ask for “Intelligent Speed
Adaptation”?
• How about “In-Vehicle Speed Support”
(IVSS)?