Population Projections
Shaun McLaughlin, CSO
Presentation to HASIG seminar
2 December 2008
Layout of presentation
Introduction to projection methodology
Assumptions
Expert Group
Fertility, Mortality, Migration
Projection process illustration
Results – Republic of Ireland
Labour Force projections
Introduction
Projections in a 5-yearly cycle to coincide
with Census
(every 2 years for NI)
State projections – 35 year period
Labour Force projections for state
Regional projections – 20 years
Population Projections
Methodology
Projection method
Cohort component method
2006 Population
+ Births
- Deaths
+ Net Migration
“Age on Population”
= 2007 Projected Population
Projection method
Census population used as starting point
Single year of age and sex
Assumptions on fertility, mortality and
migration
Several different scenarios based on
different assumptions
Expert group to agree assumptions
Projection method
State assumptions include Labour Force
projections for 15 year span
Followed by regional projections
Breakdown of state figures
Additional assumptions
Population Projections
Assumptions
Assumptions
This method…
2006 Population
+ Births
- Deaths
+ Net Migration
“Age on Population”
= 2007 Projected Population
…requires this information:
Fertility rate
Mortality rate
Migration flows
Assumptions
Expert Group on Population projections
CSO personnel
Census
Vital Statistics
Quarterly National Household Survey (Migration)
Government Departments
Academics
Expert Group
2 or 3 meeting of Group to agree
projections
1st meeting
Agree intial assumptions
CSO produce projections based on these
2nd meeting
Review initial results
Amend assumptions, meet again if needed
Fertility
Historic picture
Falling trends here and abroad
Fertility postponement
Births, 1960-2006 - RoI
80
Births (thousands)
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Year
Northern Ireland equivalent
Number of Births Registered (1960 to 2006)
36,000
Number of Births Registered
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
Year
Fertility assumptions
F1: TFR to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9
for the lifetime of the projections
F2: TFR to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and
to remain constant thereafter
Mortality assumptions
Mortality rates are assumed to decrease
which will result in gains in life expectancy
at birth from:
 76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 for
males
 81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041 for
females
Migration assumptions
Population change components
80
70
Thousands
60
50
40
30
20
10
Natural increase
Population change
0
-10
-20
-30
Net migration
-40
-50
6
-0
02
2
-0
96
6
-9
91
1
-9
86
6
-8
81
1
-8
79
9
-7
71
1
-7
66
6
-6
61
1
-6
56
6
-5
51
1
-5
46
6
-4
36
6
-3
26
Intercensal period
Migration assumptions
Migration is main driver of population
change in Republic of Ireland
Most unpredictable factor
Depends on many factors
Economic / employment situation
EU enlargement
Too many influences to model
Migration for recent years
120.0
80.0
Emigrants
Immigrants
Net migration
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Thousands
100.0
Year
Migration assumptions
Highly unpredictable
Not trying to forecast economy etc.
2 Main assumptions:
M1: Continued high in-migration
M2: More moderate migration
3rd Zero-migration assumption
Useful to gauge effect of migration
Migration assumptions
Scenario
20062011
20112016
20162021
20212026
20262031
20312036
20362041
Thousands
M1
Net migration
60
50
40
30
30
30
30
M2
Net migration
50
35
25
10
10
10
10
Assumptions summary
2 Fertility assumptions
F1: Continuing high fertility
F2: Decreasing fertility
3 Migration Assumptions
M1: Continuing high migration
M2: More moderate migration
M0: Zero migration
1 Mortality Assumption
Population Projections
Process
Projection illustration
Age
105
105
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
55
00
Males
40
30
20
Thousands
10
0
Females
0
10
20
Thousands
30
40
Projection illustration
Males
Start with initial
population
(2006).
Single year of
age pyramid
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Mortality
assumptions
=> number of
deaths at each
age
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Subtract
deaths
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Migration
assumptions
=> number of
emigrants
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Migration
assumptions
=> number of
immigrants
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Population
ages by 1 year
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Fertility rates +
no. of women
of child-bearing
age
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Number of
births
(i.e. age 0)
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Result is
projected
population
after 1 year
(2007)
Females
Projection illustration
Males
Result is
projected
population
after 1 year
(2007)
Females
Repeat as
required!
Population Projections
Results
Population, 1841-2006
6.5
Population (millions)
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1841
1861
1881
1901
1921
Year
1941
1961
1981
2001
Projected population 2006-2021
High Fertility (F1)
Year
M1
M2
Low Fertility (F2)
M0
M1
M2
4,729
5,188
5,590
4,676
5,050
5,356
M0
Thousands
2011
2016
2021
4,738
5,233
5,688
4,686
5,094
5,449
Migration accounts for over 90% of range
4,422
4,607
4,764
4,413
4,568
4,686
Primary & Secondary populations
“Primary” 5-12 was 450,500 in 2006
Will increase under all assumptions
To 623,100 by 2021 under M1F1 (+172,600)
To 480,500 by 2021 under M0F2 (+30,000)
“Secondary” 13-18 was 342,300 in 2006
Will decline initially
To 339,400 by 2011 under M1F1
Then increase again to reach 409,700 by 2021
Young population 2006-2021
Population 0-14
Peaked at 1,044,000 in 1981
Fell to a low of 827,500 in 2001
Has increased since - was 865,000 in 2006
Is projected to grow under all assumptions
By 2016 will reach

and
1,074,400 under M1F1
1,048,800 under M2F1
Under low fertility assumption
By 2021 will be

and
1,021,200 under M2F2
0,866,900 under M0F2
Primary school-going population
700000
650000
600000
M1F1
550000
500000
450000
M1F2
M2F1
M2F2
M0F1
M0F2
400000
350000
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
300000
Working age population
Working age population (15-64)
2,905,500 in 2006
Up 316,000 (2.3% p.a.) since 2001
In determining projections migration is key factor
M1F1 3,745,900 in 2021
Up 840,000 (1.7% p.a.)
M2F1 3,565,800 in 2021
Up 660,300 (1.4% p.a.)
Births 2006-2021
Population aged 0-14 in 2021 determined by
annual births between 2006 and 2021
Births
Historic high of
74,000 in 1980
Historic low of
48,300 in 1994
More recent high of 64,200 in 2006
Average annual projected births 2016 to 2021
Highest under M1F1
Compared with M2F2
And M0F2
79,000
69,000
51,000
Projected population 2021-2041
High Fertility (F1)
Year
M1
M2
Low Fertility (F2)
M0
M1
M2
5,590
5,920
6,220
6,497
6,759
5,356
5,556
5,719
5,852
5,965
M0
Thousands
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
5,688
6,068
6,417
6,748
7,072
5,449
5,695
5,901
6,080
6,247
4,764
4,883
4,976
5,056
5,122
4,686
4,771
4,829
4,870
4,896
Old population (65+ years)
Old population (65+)
2006
2041 (M0)
2041 (M2)
2041 (M1)
462,400
1,313,300
1,396,600
1,434,400
3 fold increase
Oldest old population (80+)
20016
2041 (M0)
112,000
443,700
= 4 fold increase
Actual and projected dependency
ratios (M2F2)
80
Total
70
Percent
60
50
40
Young
30
20
Old
10
0
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036
Year
Population pyramid for 2006
and 2041 (M1F1)
Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041
(M0F2)
Population Projections
Labour Force
Projections
Labour Force projections
Labour force
Persons aged 15+ at work or unemployed
Excludes homemakers / pupils / retired
Labour force participation rate
Number of persons in the labour force,
expressed as a percentage of the total
Labour Force Projections
Done as a final step in the projections
process
Make assumptions about participation
rates
Apply these to the results of population
projections
Covers 15 year period
Labour Force Projections
Different participation rates for different
sections of population
Male / Female
Student / Non-student
Have children? (For females)
Difficult to project – use marriage rates instead
Labour Force Projections
Labour Force participation rate
assumptions
Males
 LFPR of 25-44 year old males largely unchanged
 Minor increases in LFPR of males aged 45+
reflecting a greater propensity to remain in the LF
 Married females
 Further LFPR gains for 25-49 year olds
 Moderate gains in LFPR for females 50+
 Other females
 Moderate increases in LFPR of these females
Projected Labour Force
Year
Actual*
1996
2002
2006
M1
2011
2016
2021
M2
2011
2016
2021
M0
2011
2016
2021
Married
Females
Other
Thousands
Total
925.1
1,076.6
1,223.2
322.1
414.5
475.0
260.2
349.8
419.8
582.3
764.3
894.8
1,507.4
1,840.9
2,118.0
1,392.4
1,532.7
1,653.1
546.3
620.0
674.7
482.7
511.8
537.3
1,029.0
1,131.8
1,212.0
2,421.5
2,664.5
2,865.2
1,371.9
1,480.7
1,568.8
541.5
605.3
647.1
472.2
487.3
501.5
1,013.7
1,092.6
1,148.5
2,385.6
2,573.3
2,717.3
1,269.3
1,302.6
1,335.0
517.2
550.8
562.3
419.7
407.9
412.2
936.9
958.7
974.5
3,143.2
3,220.0
3,284.1
Males
Persons
Projected labour force
Working age population x participation rates
 Between 2002 and 2006
 Projected up to 2021


+72,000
+50,000
+40,000
+13,000
p.a.
p.a. under M1
p.a. under M2
p.a. under M0
Split increases into demographic / participation
Demographic effect drives increases
males 90% under M1, and 66% under M0
married females 77% under M1
single females - demographic negative under M0
Labour force growth rates
Period
1996/2006
2006/2021 (M1)
2006/2021 (M2)
2006/2021 (M0)
Males
Married
females
Other
females
Total
females
Persons
2.8
2.0
1.7
0.6
4.0
2.4
2.1
1.1
4.9
1.7
1.2
-0.1
4.4
2.0
1.7
0.6
3.5
2.0
1.7
0.6
Migration and the labour force
Period
Scenario
Average annual
net migration
Average annual
change in the
labour force
Thousands
Actual
1996/2006
Projected
2006/2021
M1
M2
M0
Average annual
change in the
labour force
Percentage
37.0
61.1
3.5
50.0
36.7
0.0
49.8
40.0
13.1
2.0
1.7
0.6
Population Projections
Any questions?