Getting on track for
zero emissions
Fighting for the Future We Want
at the UN Climate Negotiations
#ZeroBy2050
#1o5C
Contents
• The package of long-term goals
• What is the long-term mitigation goal & Why do we
need one?
• Who supports a long-term mitigation goal?
• Youth and the long-term mitigation goal
• Opportunities for youth advocacy in Paris
A package of long-term goals
Mitigation
LTG
2015 Paris
Agreement
• Creates scientific backbone of
Agreement by setting the rate of
reductions in line with developing
science
• Connects up mitigation & adaptation
plans, and informs overall finance
budget needs.
Adaptation
LTG
Finance
LTG
• Creates a unifying vision for
adaptation globally
• Helps determine aggregate
finance, technology & capacity
needs to address national
adaptation plans
• Creates a process for reviewing &
scaling up finance in line with
changing mitigation & adaptation
needs
Why do we need a long-term
mitigation goal?
•
At COP16 governments agreed a 2°C limit on warming –
but this is hard to understand. How do you live a ‘well
below 2°C life’?
•
The latest IPCC report says we must get to zero
emissions by 2100 to stay below the 2°C limit or earlier –
by mid century – for 1.5ºC to avoid dangerous climate
change
•
Reducing emissions and getting to zero is something we
can all contribute to
•
It gives a back-bone to the short-term ‘intended
nationally determined contributions’ (iNDCs) forcing
them to get stronger over time (sometimes called the
‘ambition mechanism’)
•
Looking long-term puts a flag in the ground that gets
everyone (the public, governments, business) heading in
the right direction. It will drive innovation and education
by giving certainty of the future direction of travel.
What is Zero?
Some of the ways people have talked about
getting on track to zero are:
-
Decarbonisation
Fossil fuel phase-out, 100% renewables phase-in
100% clean energy
Divestment: go fossil free
Carbon neutrality & Climate neutrality
Zero GHG Emissions
Net Zero
What the science tells us
• For a 50% chance of returning maximum temperature rise to 1.5ºC by
2100:
– GHG emissions must reach zero by 2060-2080
– CO2 emissions from fossil fuels must be phased out by 2050
• For a 66% chance of staying well below 2°C:
– GHG emissions must be zero by 2080-2100
– CO2 emissions must be zero between 2060 – 2075
Analysis from Climate Action Tracker using the same IPCC science found:
• For an 85% likelihood of meeting 2°C:
– GHG emissions must reach zero between 2060 and 2080
– CO2 emissions from energy and industry must reach net zero even
earlier - 2045 to 2065
Summary by Niklas Hohne, based on briefing here:
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Bonn_policy_update__f
And since then….
• On the same day as World Meteorological
Organisation announced global CO2
concentrations passed 400 parts per million….
• For the first time, the global temperature was
measured at 1.02ºC above the average
temperature in 1900.
• The Nov 2015 UNFCCC ‘Synthesis Report of
Aggregate INDCs’ found the current INDCs would
NOT be enough to prevent 2ºC of warming, they
add up to a 2.7ºC world.
– If ambition isn’t increased before 2030, staying well
below 2ºC will get more difficult and more expensive
Who supports the long-term mitigation goal?
There is support across the world for getting to zero!
•
Civil society: CAN, Avaaz, Change.org and GCCA;
campaigners and activists at the People’s March
•
Religious communities: the Interfaith Summit, Catholic
Bishops, the Dalai Lama & Buddhist Leaders and Islamic
leaders from 20 countries
•
Business: We may not always like them, but they do make
many of the things we use in our daily lives – we’ve
tracked 100 large companies with science-based targets, a
net zero target or a 100% renewables target. They also
want a LTG from Paris for their investment decisions.
•
Economists: The New Climate Economy Report showed
that it can be economically beneficial to get on track to
zero now
•
Artists/celebrities: Amazing poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner from
the Marshall Islands opened the Climate Summit saying
“we must end carbon pollution within my lifetime”.
Leonardo di Caprio then said ”by 2050, clean, renewable
energy could supply 100% of the world’s energy”.
•
International institutions: The UN has pledged to go
carbon neutral and UNEP’s emission gap report confirms
the world must get to net zero by 2070 at the latest.
•
The World’s Scientists: Scientists have signed the Earth
Statement, the IPCC scientists, Climate Action Tracker
organisations, and others.
Which countries support a long-term
mitigation goal?
133 countries support the inclusion of a long-term goal to
operationalise the 1.5/2ºC temperature limit in the Paris
Agreement, which looks like this:
What do they support exactly?
– Deep decarbonisation or decarbonisation of the global economy:
Brazil, G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA;
28 EU countries; 44 AOSIS countries;
– Fossil fuel free economy/phase out of emissions: Bahamas,
Denmark, Eritrea, Iceland, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden
– Net zero emissions: 48 LDC countries, Malawi, Marshall Islands, New
Zealand, Norway, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Sweden, Uganda
– Climate or Carbon neutrality:
• Globally: 7 AILAC countries; EU; Finland; Iceland; Norway; Panama
• Nationally: Armenia; Bhutan; Costa Rica; Ethiopia; Georgia; Guatemala;
Burkino Faso; Monaco; Norway; Sierra Leone; Switzerland,
– Low carbon transformation: Albania; Bangladesh; Cap Verde; China;
Saudi Arabia; Swaziland;
Find out what they said using our tracking available here: www.track0.org/countries/
All countries support a long-term
temperature limit of 2ºC
195 countries support 2ºC
Implying phase-out by
2080 - 2100
104 countries support 1.5ºC
Implying phase-out by 2050
http://www.1o5c.org/
The Power of Youth
• Young people bring the voice of science and
morality
• We have authority to represent the young
people and future generations like us that will
be affected by decisions made today
• Vulnerable countries see us as their allies
• This is our future – you can’t argue with that!
‘We stand behind your red lines’ action, Doha 2012
Why us, why the long-term goal?
• YOUNGO supports a 1.5°C limit on warming – it’s simple, you
can’t get to 1.5°C without going to zero
• We have a powerful story to tell. Young people everywhere
are already reducing emissions on track to zero – community
energy/food, divestment, education etc
• This is our opportunity to
put our stamp on the Paris
agreement by pushing
for a long-term goal
of Zero By 2050, phasing out
emissions from fossil fuels
phasing in renewable
and
energy
YOUNGO #ZeroBy2050 Action, Bonn ADP, October 2015
UN MAJOR GROUP FOR CHILDREN & YOUTH, NYC 2015
Where can we fight to get on track to
zero in Paris?
• A long-term goal with an end-date must be in the Paris Agreement
– in both, or one, of the ‘General/Objective’ & ‘Mitigation’ sections.
• We must fight for the ideal long-term goal equation:
Ambitious
Formulation
+ 2050 – 2070 end-date = A good Long-term Goal
(Decarbonisation,
zero, phase-out)
• Every country is submitting their INDCs and we have a right to push
our country to act in our interest. There is still an opportunity to
push for the inclusion of a national long-term goal, and support for
an international long-term goal in each INDC.
Next Steps
• Think – what demands are critical for our future?
• Listen – who is on our side? Who can we work with?
Who can we push further?
• Organise – stay focussed & organise within the
YOUNGO LTG working group; use #zeroby2050 for all
LTG social media
• Act – be vocal & visual about our demands; be a
constant reminder to negotiators of what’s at stake
Lets do this!
RESOURCES
@ontrack0
http://track0.org/
isabel.bottoms@track0.org