Population and Workforce Issues Facing Franklin County
When we talk about labor issues, the unemployment rate is invariable mentioned. This metric is often
used to gauge the health of the overall economy, with high unemployment rates correlating with periods
of hardship and recession. Following the 2008 financial crisis, unemployment has fallen country-wide
from its 10.1% peak in October 2009 to 6.3% this April. Vermont is well ahead, with Franklin County
recently reaching a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate below 4%.
However, the recent drop in unemployment may be signaling a new macroeconomic concern: labor
shortage. Due to a combination of recovering industries, an aging workforce, and lack of young skilled
workers, a labor shortage is predicted to be a significant problem for Franklin County.
Franklin County Unemployment Rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
Actual Unemployment Rate
2/1/2014
2/1/2013
2/1/2012
2/1/2011
2/1/2010
2/1/2009
2/1/2008
2/1/2007
2/1/2006
2/1/2005
2/1/2004
2/1/2003
2/1/2002
2/1/2001
2/1/2000
2/1/1999
2/1/1998
2/1/1997
2/1/1996
2/1/1995
2/1/1994
2/1/1993
2/1/1992
2/1/1991
2/1/1990
0
Seasonally Adjusted
The above graph represents Franklin County’s monthly unemployment data obtained from the
U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. To adjust for seasonal changes, I ran a
regression using the statistics software Demetra+.
In a report produced by Ken Jones and Lilly Schwarz, Vermont’s state-wide and county populations are
projected for 2020 and 2030. Projections are split for these decades between a bullish ‘Scenario A’ and
bearish ‘Scenario B’ environment using migration, mortality, and birthrate trends from the 1990s and
2000s. The table below shows a reworked representation of their data for Franklin County.
Age
2010 Census
Population
2020 Population
2020 Population
2030 Population
2030 Population
Prediction (Scenario A) Prediction (Scenario B) Prediction (Scenario A) Prediction (Scenario B)
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
3,007
3,129
3,495
3,225
2,355
2,770
2,944
3,271
3,605
4,069
3,946
3,429
2,693
1,940
1,272
2,596
2,928
3,033
3,343
2,899
2,298
3,007
3,360
3,304
3,118
3,338
3,646
4,224
4,017
3,351
2,526
3,418
2,825
2,853
3,260
2,767
2,180
2,749
3,268
3,373
3,024
3,261
3,579
4,026
3,714
3,042
2,183
3,149
3,155
3,433
3,318
2,799
2,197
2,691
3,288
3,589
3,568
3,378
3,156
3,476
3,729
4,163
3,820
5,887
3,077
3,278
3,151
2,516
2,039
2,352
3,035
3,379
3,369
3,368
3,006
3,236
3,387
3,611
3,056
4,879
Total Population
47,746
51,810
49,253
55,647
50,739
8.5%
3.20%
7.41%
3.02%
Population Change From Previous Decade
Both Scenario A and B forecast population growth for Franklin County into the 2030s. More interesting is
the change in age demographics during this period. For each projection, I highlighted the top 10% age
cohort in red. As shown, the largest group of people are getting older and older. These are the babyboomer population who were born in the post WWII period between 1946 and 1964.
Franklin County’s aging population has serious implications for its workforce. In the table below, I
estimated the change in workforce for Jones and Schwarz’s population projections using the most recent
employment statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Age
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
2013 Civillian Labor
Force Percent
0
0
0
34.5
70.7
81.2
80.6
82.1
82.3
81.2
78.3
72.4
55
32.2
19.2
7.9
Total Workforce
Estimated 2010
Workforce
Estimated 2020
Estimated 2020
Estimated 2030
Estimated 2030
Workforce (Scenario A) Workforce (Scenario B) Workforce (Scenario A) Workforce (Scenario B)
0
0
0
1112.625
1664.985
2249.24
2372.864
2685.491
2966.915
3304.028
3089.718
2482.596
1481.15
624.68
244.224
205.084
0
0
0
1000.155
1624.686
2441.684
2708.16
2712.584
2566.114
2710.456
2854.818
3058.176
2209.35
1079.022
484.992
270.022
0
0
0
954.615
1541.26
2232.188
2634.008
2769.233
2488.752
2647.932
2802.357
2914.824
2042.7
979.524
419.136
248.771
0
0
0
965.655
1553.279
2185.092
2650.128
2946.569
2936.464
2742.936
2471.148
2516.624
2050.95
1340.486
733.44
465.073
0
0
0
868.02
1441.573
1909.824
2446.21
2774.159
2772.687
2734.816
2353.698
2342.864
1862.85
1162.742
586.752
385.441
24483.6
25720.219
24675.3
25557.844
23641.636
5%
0.80%
-0.01%
-4.19%
Workforce Change From Previous Decade
Increasing population, decreasing workforce?
Without change in economic policy, Franklin County’s workforce will decline between 2020 and 2030
despite its growing population. If the region’s economy were to grow at a steady rate during this period,
we would see unemployment levels continue to drop, reaching a below optimal ‘negative’ state. Under
negative unemployment, there is an inadequate supply of labor to meet demand by employers. Without
the ability to expand production or start new business ventures due to the labor shortage, Franklin
County’s economy will stagnate and perhaps decline as employers leave the region.
However, Franklin County is not alone in this issue; America’s entire workforce is ageing and a labor
shortage is predicted for large portions of New England (WCAX). Franklin County can avoid future
economic hardship by making the necessary policy investments to attract and keep a younger workforce
while helping employers tap in to the local talent through appropriate education and training programs.
Work Cited
"Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population by Age, Sex, and Race." Labor Force
Statistics from the Current Population Survey. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 26 Feb. 2014. Web.
<http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03.htm>.
"Labor Shortage Predicted in New England." WCAX, 6 Oct. 2010. Web.
Jones, Ken, and Lilly Schwarz. "Vermont Population Projections – 2010 - 2030." State of Vermont. N.p.,
Aug. 2013. Web.
U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment Rate in Franklin County, VT. N.p.,
n.d. Web. <http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/VTFRAN1URN.txt>.