CARE Agriculture and Natural
Resources Strategy
‘Global Agriculture Review’
Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal,
Phoebe Garfinkel, Micah Ingalls, David Lee
Courtney Wallace
Cornell University and EcoAgriculture Partners
NovemberJune
18, 2009
2010
I. Pathways of change in
CARE’s Agriculture and
Natural Resources Program
II. Drivers of change in
agriculture and food
availability and their impact
on CARE’s target populations
Global Drivers of Change in Agriculture
and Natural Resources Sectors
Driver: Any natural- or human-induced factor that directly
or indirectly brings about change in production, marketing
and institutional support systems for agriculture and natural
resources.
Drivers are numerous and layered (Hazel and Wood, 2007)
9 Key Global Drivers:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Population pressure and food distribution
Increasing concentration of population in urban areas
Globalization of the food and agriculture system
Changing consumer preferences
Agriculture land use for non-food products and services
Natural resources scarcity
Climate change
HIV/AIDS Prevelance
Information and Communication Technology Advances
Population pressure and food distribution
• Human population is expected to grow from 6 billion in
2007, to nearly 9 billion by 2050, increasing global demand for food
by 50% next two decades (Hazel & Wood 2007), 70-100% by 2050
(Godfrey et al 2010)
• Hunger due not to food production, but to access to food:
– Purchasing power (income distribution)
– Food price and distribution (markets, infrastructure and policy)
(UN Millenium Project 2005, MEA 2005, von Braun 2005, FAO 2006)
• ‘Global food crisis’ of 2008: changes in food prices affect
food supply with some long term effects (Evans 2008).
• Concerns at regional and local levels:
– Hunger and malnutrition: 1.2 billion people living in poverty,
90% South Asia and Africa, 75% rural who depend on agriculture
– Increase in agriculture demand: land and water requirements
– Environmental impacts: ecosystem services, health risks
– Large, persistant spatial differences
(Cassman & Wood 2005)
Population pressure and food distribution
•
Per capita agricultural output (including food) has increased
in recent decades: scientific and technological advances allowed
intensification and reduced the demand for land (FAO, 2006)
•
Future increases in population and staple food needs are expected in
LDCs. Development of domestic agriculture play and important role.
Urbanization
• By 2030 the
developing
world is
expected to
have 79% of
the world’s
urban dwellers
(Caballero 2002)
• Of the 3 billion people living
in urban centers, 1 billion
are living in slums; by 2030,
this figure will double (World Watch
2007)
Urbanization
• Asia and Africa’s urban populations are expected to double
to 3.4 billion by 2030 (World Watch Institute 2007)
• Urbanization creates a change in food environments that
directly impact dietary intake and consumer preferences:
(Mendez 2004)
• Men and women enter workforce and have less time for
food production and preparation
(FAO 2004)
• Increasing incomes increase food purchases in urban
areas
(FAO 2004)
• Diets in urban areas tend to be higher in polished grains,
fats, sugars and processed and packaged foods
2004)
(Mendez
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
Globalization means integration of inputs and outputs into global
markets, global sharing of information and knowledge, and global
rules governing such integration.
•
• Globalization can greatly
enhance the role of
agriculture as an engine of
growth by making it
possible for agriculture to
grow considerably faster
than domestic
consumption.
• It can also increase food
security through
stimulating demand for
rural, labor-intensive, nontradable goods and
services (FAO 2003).
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
•
Requirements to benefit from globalization: perfect knowledge and
frictionless movements of finance, inputs, output, information, and
science across vast geographic areas.
•
The extent and pace of globalization of agriculture differs by country.
Implications of Globalization:
– Trade liberalization: increased competition in domestic and export
markets, cost reductions in one place have immediate impacts in
other places, role of multilateral and regional trade agreements
– Integrated financial and capital markets: increase in the level of FDI
• Between 1990 and 2004 FDI stock more than tripled in
agriculture and roughly quadrupled in the food processing sector
(von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008)
– Structural changes in agricultural markets and increasing role of
private sector: vertical market integration and consolidation of
market power
– Changes in global and domestic prices: lower world prices due to
productivity gains, but slow transmission of lower prices to domestic
markets due to inefficiencies, increase in retail-level food prices and
their high variability
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
•
Implications of the globalized agrifood system for
development and poverty (von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008):
– Changing environment for innovation and information:
• growing level of involvement of the private sector
• increasingly proprietary and competitive research environment
• slowing down of public-sector research expenditure
– Increasing commercialization of small producers:
•
•
•
•
increasing competitiveness
adverse effects on net sellers of food in inefficient sectors
potential to benefit from vertical integration with agribusinesses
displacement of traditional agriculturalists
– Changes in trade and domestic markets toward a global agrifood
business chain:
• trade and agricultural policies shaped by multilateral, regional, and
bilateral agreements
• influence of private rules such as quality standards
– Consumer-driven agrifood systems:
• greater quality and safety concerns
• reorganization of food chains including supermarkets and agroprocessors
• changing consumers’ preferences
Changing consumer preferences
• Rising incomes in the middle
class, urbanization, and
population growth, are
driving demand for meat,
seafood and other animal
products (FAO 2009)
Source: World Watch 2008
• Livestock contribute 40
Source: World Watch 2008
percent of the global value of
agricultural output and
support the livelihoods and
food security of almost a
billion people (FAO 2009)
Changing consumer preferences
Changing consumer preferences are due to:
1) Urbanization
2) Rising incomes
3) Globalized trade in the agriculture sector
4) Foreign Direct Investment in food processing and retail sectors
(Hawkes 2008)
•
Dominance of retail food sector has changed the rules of
the game for producers and consumers: “markets” are now
“super-markets” (Reardon 2003)
•
Consumer preference shifts are beginning to extend beyond
urban areas (Mendez 2004)…
• …but rural areas still struggle with fragmented markets, poor
productivity and high levels of food insecurity
(FAO 2004)
Agricultural land use for Biofuels
• Rapid growth in recent years and projected to continue,
increasing land requirements for biofuels (Royal Society 2008)
– Ethanol: global production tripled (2000-2007), 5.46% share on
global gasoline use.
– Biodiesel: global productionincreased eleven-fold (2000-2007),
1.5% share in global diesel fuel use (UNEP 2009)
• Motivations for biofuel production
– GHG mitigation, they appeared to be carbon-neutral
– Energy security, alternative fuel to meet the demand
• Country production
– Ethanol: 90% Brazil (sugarcane), USA (maize)
– Biodiesel: 75% EU (France, Germany)
– Ethanol and biodiesel based in agricultural feedstocks
(sugarcane, palm oil, jatropha, cassava, rice, wheat..): rapid
expansion in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia) and Latin
America (World Bank 2007)
Agricultural land use for biofuels
Support mechanisms:
•
Economic Incentives: incentives and subsidies (public and private)
made possible the rapid growth of biofuel production - necessary to
develop a competitive industry (UNEP 2009)
•
Policy support: blending mandates (10-15% ethanol, 2-5% biodiesel)
and country targets (17 countries by 2006) (World Bank 2007)
Support at different
levels of biofuel
production chain.
Source: FAO, 2007
Agricultural land use for biofuels
Concerns related to biofuel demand:
• Pressures on food security
– New demand for agricultural feedstocks, increasing competition
for natural resources (land, water)
– Increase in price of food crops, competition food vs. fuel,
increasing food insecurity and poverty (particularly in urban
areas) (FAO 2008)
• Life-cycle GHG emissions and evironmental impacts
– Emissions assessment requires LCA, including land-use change
derived emissions and inputs (stardards) (Royal Society 2008)
– LU and intensification affects water quality and availability
– LU/LUC threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services (FAO 2008)
Agricultural land use for
ecosystem services
• Agricultural landscapes provide critical ecosystem
services on which people’s livelihood depends:
– Biodiversity conservation
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Pest and disease control
Water availability and filtration
Erosion control
Productive soil
Vegetation cover
Carbon sequestration
Recreational opportunities, aesthetic beauty, cultural identity
By making better use of water and land and providing such environmental
services as managing watersheds, agriculture can make growth more
environmentally sustainable (UNEP 2009, World Bank 2008)
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Forest resource degradation and scarcity
– Livelihood basis for 1.6
billion people (CIFOR 2008)
– Aggregate loss of 13
million ha/year natural
forest (CIFOR 2008)
– High local variation in both
gross change and rate of
change (FAO 2007)
Rate of loss:
1st Nigeria 11.1%/year
2nd Viet Nam 10%/year
Degradation of forest resources is
primarily driven by:
• Conversion of forest to agricultural land
• Logging (USD99 billion/year) (CIFOR 2008)
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Water and Aquatic Resources- primary resource
constraint of future decades
Current water shortages
are severe and growing,
expected to be greatly
exacerbated by GCC.
Driven by:
• Agricultural
consumption primary
• Changing climate
patterns
Coloured areas to experience water-stress (Vorosmarty et al 2000)
Erosion of global freshwater fisheries primarily driver by
decreasing water quality and quantity, driven by
agricultural conversion.
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Land degradation by agricultural practices
Losses:
• 40% of
agricultural lands
experiencing
degradation, 16%
severely
degraded (FAO 1999)
• Salinization of
irrigated soils1.5 million
ha/year
abandoned
(Foley et al 2005)
Drivers of unsustainable agricultural
practices:
• Increasing demand from population pressures
• Trade liberalization, growing income
disparities, poor governance
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Biodiversity
• Ecosystem functioning
and the provision ES
• Provision of non-farm
food sources
• Source of new genetic
material for crop
cultivars- major losses
anticipated (CGIAR 2009)
Biodiversity change scenarios to 2100 (Sala et al 2008)
Key drivers:
• Land conversion from natural forest,
which also impact aquatic systems (Sala et
al 2008)
• Exacerbated by population pressures and
global climate change
Climate change
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
(IPCC 2007).
• Climate change increases risk and vulnerability and undermines
human resilience. Distribution of climate change effects is uneven
across time and space but developing countries and poor people are
disproportionately affected.
Main consequences:
– Higher average temperatures, changing rainfall patterns,
decreasing water availability and water quality, rising sea
levels, species extinction
– Increase in variability and unpredictability of extreme
weather events
– Resulting impacts on agricultural prices, production and
consumption
– Impacts on per capital calorie consumption and child
malnutrition
Climate change
– Increase in the number of people affected by natural disasters
and in the scale of economic damage
– Increased migration and displacement
2°C temperature
rise above preindustrial levels
means 1 to 2
billion more
people suffering
from increased
water stress and
100 to 400 million
more people at
risk of hunger
(WDR 2010).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Estimated adult HIV prevalence for countries (2007)
Source: UNAIDS, 2008
In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is depleting the region of its food producers and farmers,
decimating the agricultural labour force for generations to come.
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Key facts:
• HIV/AIDS threats rural development: over two thirds of
the population of the 25 most-affected countries live in rural
areas. AIDS mostly affects the productive age group (15-50
years). The loss of productive members affects household
capacity to produce and buy food in those comunities.
• The pandemic is shifting from urban to rural areas:
today, 95% of people living with, and dying of, HIV/AIDS are
in developing countries. The overwhelming majority are the
rural poor, and among them women figure disproportionately.
• Most of the response to the epidemic has come from the
health sector. However, HIV/AIDS is more than a health issue,
up to 80% of the people in most affected countries
depend on agriculture for their subsistence. The
agricultural sector cannot continue with “business as usual”, a
new focus on agricultual responses is needed (FAO, 2006a).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Impacts of HIV/AIDS
• The consequences of HIV/AIDS contribute to making the rural
poor more vulnerable to infection: poverty, food insecurity,
malnutrition, reduced labour force and loss of local knowledge.
• The agricultural sector has a critical role to play in breaking
this cycle. Through actions that support sustainable agriculture
and rural development, CARE has an opportunity to contribute
preventing and mitigating the impacts of HIV/AIDS (FAO 2006a).
• HIV/AIDS exacerbates gender-based differences in access to
resources and social exclusion. Women’s productive activities
decrease due to their role as care providers, as well as their
contribution to household income. Increased need for cash
income sometimes results in sex work. Increase in gender
inequality results in a decrease in access to land, credit and
knowledge, for women in general and, in particular for widows
(FAO-Dimitra 2005, FAO 2006b).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Some strategies FAO is working on that
represent opportunities for CARE to engage
in and collaborate:
• Supporting diversity, gender equality and human rights,
• Reducing the stigma that accompanies HIV/AIDS, and
• Building partnerships and developing creative synergies with
other sectors, and wrking with other stakeholders.
• Helping develop formal and informal institutions (schools,
extension services, …) to preserve local knowledge and
transmit it across generations.
• Participating in the development and implementation of
labour saving technologies and practices, such as low-input
agriculture, tools, improved seed varieties, intercropping,
minimum tillage, access to potable water, fuel-efficient stoves
that can free women for productive activities, etc.
Advances in Information
Communication Technology (ICT)
• Advances in ICTs are coming about through the merging of
information technologies (mainly computer systems) and
communication technologies (particularly cell phones).
• Smallholder farmers in developing countries, as well as
researchers and extension workers, can benefit from current
ICTs: access market information; collect data on crop
production, environment, farming techniques, etc; access
geographic information and share knowledge
(Ballantyne, Maru and Porcari, 2009).
• For small, resource poor farmers and producers in developing
countries, applications of ICTs have not yet become
mainstream due to low economic returns from agriculture and
lack of access to affordable technology (CGIAR Science Forum,
2009).
• Mobile phone has revolutionized the lives of millions of urban
and rural poor by connecting and involving them in viable
economic activities (Samii, 2010).
Advances in Information
Communication Technology (ICT)
• Mobile subscribers in Africa have reached 448.1 million
(54% of the total population) and are expected to reach 561
million by 2012.
• In Africa, mobile phones allow those excluded from
telecommunications infrastructure to take an active part in
improving their livelihoods due to the affordable pricing
schemes of mobile services. This social and economic
inclusion has led to the willingness of poor rural households
to spend 4-8% of their income on mobile telephony.
• Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009
(World Economic Forum to INSEAD): "mobile telecommunications
has had a positive disruptive impact on life in many
developing economies, especially in rural areas."
• Mobile telephony is providing poor rural people with a point
of contact allowing them to take part in the economic
system and enter in the job market.
References
1. INCREASING POPULATION AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION
Cassman, K., & Wood, S. (2005). Cultivated systems. Ecosystems and human well being, millennium
ecosystem assessment (cur rent state and trends), vol. 1, ch. 26. Washington, DC: Island Press.
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Cooperation, New York University. Chatham House Food Supply Project. April 2008.
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Hazell, P., and S. Wood (2007). Drivers of Change in Global Agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the
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Marrakech, Morocco, December 6, 2005.
References
2. GLOBALIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS
World Bank (2008). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development, World Bank, Washington
von Braun, J. & Díaz-Bonilla, E. (2008). Globalization of Agriculture and Food: Causes, Consequences, and
Policy Implications. In: J. Von Braun and E. Díaz-Bonilla (Eds.) Globalization of food and agriculture and
the poor. Issue briefs, no.52. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
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2008: Livestock in the balance, Part II: World food and agriculture in review. FAO, Rome, Italy.
Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2003). Trade Reforms and Food Security:
Conceptualizing the Linkages, FAO, Rome, Italy
References
3. URBANIZATION AND CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES
Babinard, J. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2001). Nutrition. In: E. Diaz-Bonilla and S. Robinson, Shaping
Globalization for Poverty Alleviation and Food Security. Focus 8, IFPRI Policy Brief 5. Washington, DC:
IFPRI.
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London: Academic Press
Díaz-Bonilla, E. & Robinson, S. (2001). Shaping globalization for poverty alleviation and food security.
Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Flavin, C. & Gardner, G. (2006). China, India, and the new world order. In: State of the World 2006: Special
Focus: China and India. Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, pp 3-23
Halweil, B. & Nierenberg, D. (2008). Meat and seafood: the global diet’s most costly ingredients. In: G.T.
Gardner, & , T. Prugh. State of the world 2008: Innovations for a sustainable economy. Wahshington,
D.C.: Worldwatch Institute
Korten, D.C. (2001). Corporate Colonialism, Part III. In: When Corporations Rule the World, 2nd edition, pp.
121-174. Bloomfield, Connecticut: Kumarian Press, Inc.
Hawkes, C. (2008). Globalization of Agrifood Systems and the Nutrition Transition, In: J. von Braun, and E.
Diaz-Bonilla (Eds.), Globalization of Food and Agriculture and the Poor, pp. 215-244. Delhi: Oxford
University Press
International Conference of Agricultural Economists [IAAE] (2006). 26th IAAE Conference Papers:
Contributions of Agricultural Economics to Critical Policy Issues. Queensland (Australia), 12-18 August
2006
Madeley, J. (1999). Association of world council of churches related development organisations in Europe.
Trade and the hungry how international trade is causing hunger. Brussels: APRODEV
References
3. URBANIZATION AND CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES
Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2006). Agricultural Research and Policy for Better Health and Nutrition in Developing
Countries: A Food Systems Approach. In: K. Otsuka and K. Kalirajan (Eds.) Contributions of Agricultural
Economics to Critical Policy Issues, pp. 187-198. Invited Panel paper presented at the 26th Conference
of the IAAE in Queensland Australia 2006.
Mendez, M.A. & Popkin, B.M. (2004). Globalization, Urbanization and Nutritional Change in the Developing
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Reardon, T., Timmer, C.P, Barrett, C.B. & Berdegué, J. (2003). The rise of supermarkets in africa, asia, and
latin america. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85(5):1140-6.
Reardon, T. and Barrett, C.B. (2000). Agroindustrialization, Globalization, and International Development: An
Overview of Issues, Patterns, and Determinants. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 23(2): 195-205.
von Braun, J. & Díaz-Bonilla, E. (2008), Globalization of food and agriculture and the poor. Issue briefs, no.52.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Worldwatch Institute (2007). State of the world 2007: Our urban future.
Worldwatch Institute (2004). State of the world 2004: Progress towards a sustainable society. London:
Earthscan
References
4. NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY
CIFOR (2008). CIFOR’s Strategy 2008-2018: Making a Difference for Forests and People. Centre for
International Forestry Research.
CGIAR (2009). Climate, agriculture and food security: A strategy for change. The Consultative Group
on International Agricultural Research.
Sala, OE, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Juan J. Armesto, Eric Berlow, Janine Bloomfield, Rodolfo Dirzo,
Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald, Laura F. Huenneke, Robert B. Jackson, Ann Kinzig, Rik Leemans,
David M. Lodge, Harold A. Mooney, Martín Oesterheld, N. LeRoy Poff, Martin T. Sykes, Brian
H. Walker, Marilyn Walker, and Diana H. Wall (2000). Global biodiversity Scenarios for the Year
2100. Science. Volume 287: Pp. 1770- 1774.
Falkenmark, M. and Rockstrom, J. (2006) The new Blue and green Water Paradigm: Breaking New
Ground for Water Resource Planning and Management. Journal of Water Resource Planning and
Management.
FAO (1999). The Future of Our land: Facing the Challenge. Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme. Rome, Italy.
Foley, JA, Ruth DeFries, Gregory P. Asner, Carol Barford, Gordon Bonan, Stephen R.
Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin, Michael T. Coe, Gretchen C. Daily, Holly K. Gibbs, Joseph H.
Helkowski, Tracey Holloway, Erica A. Howard, Christopher J. Kucharik, Chad Monfreda,
Jonathan A. Patz, I. Colin Prentice, Navin Ramankutty, and Peter K. Snyder (2005). Global
Consequences of Land Use. Science 309: 570-574.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S. (2006) Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources. Science 313:
1068- 1072.
References
5. AGRICULTURAL LAND USE FOR NON-FOOD PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO] (2008). The State of Food and
Agriculture 2008. Biofuels: prospects, risks and opportunities. FAO, Rome, Italy.
Milder, J.C., S.A. Shames, S.J. Scherr, and J.A. McNeely (2008). Biofuels and ecoagriculture: Can
bioenergy production enhance landscape-scale ecosystem conservation and rural livelihoods?.
International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 6:105-121.
Spiertz, J.H.J., and F. Ewert (2009). Crop production and resource use to meet the growing
demand for food, feed and fuel: Opportunities and constraints. Wageningen Journal of Life
Sciences, 56:281-300.
The Royal Society (2009). Reaping the Benefits. Science and the Sustainable Intensification of
Global Agriculture. The Royal Society, London.
The Royal Society (2008). Sustainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges. The Royal Society,
London.
United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] (2009). Towards Sustainable Production and
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assessment. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal
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References
6. CLIMATE CHANGE
CARE International, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and Maplecroft (2008).
Humanitarian Implications of Climate Change: Mapping Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots for
Humanitarian Actors. CARE International.
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (2009). Climate, Agriculture and Food
Security: A Strategy for Change
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (2007). Global climate change: Can
agriculture cope?
International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI] (2009). Climate change: Impact on agriculture and
costs of adaptation. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI
Intergovernmenta Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2007). Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers.
Warner K, Ehrhart C, de Sherbinin A, Adamo S, Chai-Onn T (2009) In search of shelter: mapping the
effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. United Nations University, Columbia
University, CARE International, UNHCR, and the World Bank
Wold Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, Chapter 3:
Managing land and water to feed nine billion people and protect natural systems
References
10. HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)-Dimitra/CTA Workshop. 2005. Rural
women, dynamisation of networs and the fight against HIV/AIDS in rural areas. Accesible at:
http://www.fao.org/hivaids/publications/DIMITRA_Atelier05_EN.pdf
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2006a. HIV/AIDS and Food Security.
Accesible at: http://www.fao.org/hivaids/
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2006b. HIV/AIDS, food security and rural
livelihoods. A leaflet on impacts, implications and agriculture sector responses. Accesble at:
http://www.fao.org/hivaids/publications/hivaids.pdf
The Global coalition on Women and AIDS (GCWA). 2010. Accesible at: http://www.womenandaids.net
Hlanze, Z., Gama, T. and Mondlane, S. 2005. The impact of HIV/AIDS and drough on local knowledge
systems for agrobiodiversity and food security. LinKS project, gender, biodiversity and local knowledge
systems for food security, Report No. 50. FAO-LinKS Swaziland. Available at:
http://www.fao.org/sd/dim_pe1/pe1_060702_en.htm
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). 2008. Report on the global AIDS epidemic.
Accesible at: http://www.unaids.org/en/KnowledgeCentre/HIVData/GlobalReport/2008/