GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE
as per May 17, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association
www. gsacom.com
by
Peter Reinisch
Vice President GSA
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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IMPORTANT NOTE
Worldwide GSM subscribers counter running 24/7 at
www.gsacom.com
Many of the charts in this document are downloadable by
registered site users at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Business fundamentals driving GSM success
Millions
1000
900
800
700
600
Mobile subscriptions

Interoperability, roaming, competition,
roadmap security, end-to-end efficiency
GSM
CDMA

400
300
100
Source: EMC 2003
Economies of scale
 1.36 billion GSM users currently
 GSM has more advanced learning curve
 GSM has sustainable cost advantage
500
200
Open standardized technology

Growth
 GSM > 80% of all new users
0
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Mobile technology growth, market share
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Mobile subscribers growth
– China, India
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Mobile subscriber growth
- Latin and Central America
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G
- drivers are capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery
for revenue growth
Expected market share
TDMA
GSM
EDGE
GPRS
2G
3GPP Core
Network
WCDMA
PDC
cdmaOne
EDGE
Evolution
CDMA2000
1x
First Step into 3G
90%
HSDPA
CDMA2000
1x EV/DV
10%
CDMA2000
1x EV/DO
3G phase 1
Evolved 3G
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Performance evolution of cellular technologies
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Practical performance of EDGE and CDMA2000 1X
- Observations from a GSM/EDGE and CDMA market

Laptop Browsing ( Downloads)



CDMA – The average download speed was about 50 kbps.
EDGE – The average download speed was about 160 kbps.
Internet Streaming (Live TV)
 CDMA – The TV was not playing continuously but with breaks.
 EDGE – The TV was playing continuously and smoothly.

Video Streaming on Mobile (Live Videos)
 CDMA – not possible at present.
 EDGE – A smooth play of movie trailer.
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Performance of WCDMA and EV-DO
WCDMA
EVDO
Wildstrom (columnist)

Typical speed for packet data services
are 300-350 kbps in commercial
networks (includes reduction from
packet overheads)

I found downloads consistently hit speeds at a bit
over 300 kilobits per second, at the low end of
Verizon's claimed range of 300 to 500 kbps.

Standardized QoS mechanisms for
conversational, streaming, interactive
and background services

No standardized QoS mechanisms

WCDMA delivers efficiently virtually any
service, including video telephony

Only best-effort services, e.g. bearers for
video telephony or streaming not supported.

QoS management and wideband signal
deliver highest spectral and costefficiency

Over-dimensioning of 50-150% required for
delivery of real time services (e.g. streaming
or video-telephony
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Adoption of different mobile standards


First steps to 3G
 270 commercial GPRS networks
 141 networks deploying GPRS/EDGE
 84 commercial EDGE networks
(source: GSA, May 16, 2005)
 121 commercial Cdma2000 1x networks
(source: CDG, May 13, 2005)
300
3G
100
 WCDMA: 134 licenses awarded
 71 commercial WCDMA networks
(source: GSAMay 12, 2005)
 22 commercial CDMA 1x EV-DO networks
(source: CDG, May 13, 2005)

No. of commercial networks per mobile data standard
250
200
150
50
0
EDGE/GPRS
CDMA2000-1x
WCDMA
1xEV-DO
Evolved 3G
 HSDPA: all WCDMA operators expected to upgrade to HSDPA (SW upgrade to BTS)
 CDMA 1x EV-DV: limited industry support
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Data revenue from mobile services
Cumulative revenue from mobile data services earned by the
30 leading operators reached USD 10 billion during Q3/2004.
Data services revenue is growing on a wide front.
Source: Informa Telecoms and Media
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Global mobile data subscriber growth
Source: Informa Telecoms and Media
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Over 270 operators have launched MMS
A dramatic shift towards camera phones in EMEA
market in 2004, achieving 56% of the market.
During Q3/2004, close to 40 million of 62 million
phones shipped (Source: Canalys)
i.e. two-thirds, were camera phones.
Color screens on over 80% of devices in Europe
(compared to 49% in Q3/2003). Almost three
quarters of new European mobiles are cameraphones, according to IDC. Camera phones
achieved year-on-year growth of over 600% to total
72% of phones sold (compared to 11% in Q3/
2003). The volume of mega pixel camera phones
also began to grow in Q3/2004.
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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WCDMA - mature technology
globally deployed in commercial service
GSA research to April 12, 2005 confirms:
134 WCDMA licenses in 48 countries
71 commercial WCDMA operators in 31 countries
6 operators at pre-commercial stage
WCDMA subscribers: 24.1 millions*
166 WCDMA/HSDPA devices models in the market
*(WCMDA subs at March 31, 2005 source Informa Telecoms & Media)
Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSA
and other qualified site users can download the list of commercial and pre-commercial networks
Contained in 3G/ WCDMA Deployments Worldwide - www.gsacom.com
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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166 WCDMA models in the market
Subscriber growth is
now driven by a wider
range of competitive
service offerings, a
wider variety of
terminals in the market,
and
maturing technology
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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WCDMA – 25 device suppliers

Amoi

NEC

Sharp

BenQ

Nokia

Siemens

Fujitsu

Novatel Wireless

Sierra Wireless

Hisense


Sony Ericsson

HTC
NTT DoCoMo
(Raku Raku)

Toshiba

Huawei

Panasonic


LG

Pantech
Vodafone
(Option Wireless PC card)

Mitsubishi

Samsung

ZTE

Motorola

Sanyo

Seiko
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EDGE - strong take up globally


141 operators in 79 countries are deploying EDGE
84 commercial networks in 52 countries now on all
continents
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EDGE devices shipping or announced
 113 GSM/EDGE devices are in the market (May 1, 2005)
 EDGE is standard
in most new dataenabled phones

21 suppliers are in
the market
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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GSM Operators path to 3G –
combining EDGE & WCDMA

EDGE (Enhanced GPRS) uses existing spectrum and sites

Incremental investment for triple GPRS data rates, more
voice capacity

Natural evolution for all GSM operators - fastest path to 3G

WCDMA in new IMT 2000 spectrum for highest rate 3G
services/applications e.g. video calls

WCDMA leverages GSM scale plus Japan/Korea markets
for global service

Gradual investment; step-by-step evolution; builds on existing
applications/service portfolios

GSM/EDGE/WCDMA for simple service migration, similar user
experience, service continuity, roaming; high investment re-usability

Integrated EDGE/WCDMA devices available; EDGE/WCDMA
handover is commercial reality
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Combined WCDMA-EDGE networks
At least 40 operators are delivering 3G services on combined
WCDMA-EDGE networks. WCDMA and EDGE are complementary technologies ensuring lower capital cost, optimum
flexibility and efficiencies
AIS, Thailand
Ålands Mobiltelefon, Finland
Batelco, Bahrain
Cellcom, Israel
Cingular Wireless, USA
CSL, Hong Kong
Dialog GSM, Sri Lanka
Elisa, Finland
EMT, Estonia
Eurotel Praha, Czech
Eurotel Bratislava, Slovak
GPTC, Libya
Maxis, Malaysia
Mobilkom Austria
Mobitel, Bulgaria
Mobily, Saudia Arabia
MTC Vodafone, Bahrain
MTN, South Africa
Netcom, Norway
Orange, France
Orange, Romania
Orange Slovensko, Slovak
Oskar Mobile, Czech
Pannon GSM, Hungary
Polkomtel, Poland
Rogers Wireless - Fido, Canada
Si. Mobil – Vodafone,
Slovenia
Swisscom, Switzerland
Telenor, Norway
T-Mobile, Croatia
T-Mobile, Czech
T-Mobile, Hungary
T-Mobile, USA
Telfort, Netherlands
TeliaSonera, Denmark
TeliaSonera, Finland
TeliaSonera, Sweden
TIM Hellas, Greece
TIM, Italy
VIP Net, Croatia
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HSDPA
(High Speed Downlink Packet Access)
HSDPA performance improvements are achieved by:

bringing key functions e.g. scheduling of data packet transmission and
processing of retransmissions into the base station – i.e. closer to the
air interface
 using a short frame length to further accelerate packet scheduling for
transmission
 employing incremental redundancy for minimizing the air-interface load
caused by retransmissions
 adopting a new transport channel type - High Speed Downlink Shared
Channel (HS-DSCH) to facilitate air interface channel sharing between
several users
 adapting the modulation scheme and coding according to the quality of
the radio link.
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EDGE Evolution - first steps taken
PRESS RELEASE
March 10th 2005
www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_174.php4
GSA announces its support for the new
3GPP study items on EDGE Evolution.
EDGE Evolution is envisaged to bring
on average 2 – 3 fold data speeds compared to EDGE rates today, higher voice
and data capacity and improved spectral
efficiency.
The first standardization release, 3GPP
Release 7, is envisaged to be ready in 2006
Backed by leading vendors
including:
Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens
Supported by leading
operators including:
• Cingular Wireless,
• TeliaSonera
• Telecom Italia Mobile
Operators have expressed strong interest and need !
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Openness fuelling market growth and innovation
Market
take-up
Terminal
Open &
Standardized
interfaces
Open
standards &
systems
proprietary
systems
Server
Note: conceptual
illustration
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Customers want locally relevant applications
- enabled only with an open, globally adopted platform
Over 4 Million
Java-developers
 There are millions of application developers globally, using
OMA - standardized development tools
 This community is able to produce any service that is
demanded from various local consumer segments
Over 500 Million
Java-enabled
GSM terminals
In comparison, there are virtually no local developers for any
single proprietary service standard, and only a maximum of a
few thousands in each globally.

Meeting the evolving consumer demands in all segments with
a proprietary platform is not possible in practice

Prohibitive cost and time required to recruit and maintain a
proprietary developer community
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Service roaming globally possible
only with GSM-family
Global average roaming revenue is today 4%
 Typically up to 25% of revenues may be contributed from roaming
 In the GSM community over 20,000+ roaming agreements are in place
Indirect impact of roaming plays a major role in customer acquisition
 Virtually all potential data users require roaming as a basic part of service
offering.
Only GSM provides automatic roaming facilities globally
 Service roaming globally is also required with 3G
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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Services roadmap
Improved performance, decreasing cost of delivery
Broadband
in wide area
3G-specific services take
advantage of higher bandwidth
and/or real-time QoS
Video sharing
Video telephony
Real-time IP
A number of mobile
Multitasking
multimedia and games
services are bearer
WEB browsing
Multicasting
independent in nature
Corporate data access
Streaming audio/video
MMS picture / video
xHTML browsing
Application downloading
E-mail
Presence/location
Voice & SMS
Push-to-talk
EGPRS
80-160
kbps
WCDMA
128-384
kbps
HSDPA
1-10
Mbps
CDMA
2000EVDV
GPRS
30-40
kbps
CDMA
2000EVDO
GSM
10-40
kbps
CDMA
2000 1x
Typical
average bit
rates
(peak rates
higher)
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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3G is relevant today for all markets
 Capacity booster; operational and spectrum efficiencies

Higher data speeds; all data services improve with speed
 enhances user experience

Revenue growth with new data-enabled services

Key for competitive differentiation

DGE: small upgrade to GPRS, big lift in performance, fast market entry

WCDMA: in new spectrum at 2GHz (IMT-2000 core band)

EDGE + WCDMA complementary and long term

Evolved WCDMA (HSDPA/HSUPA) for mass market mobile IP multimedia
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association
-representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally
GSA is the only representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry,
bringing together all views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA
Objectives


to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets
to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for
delivery of third-generation (3G) multimedia services
GSA Executive Committee in 2005 comprises the leading GSM/EDGE/
WCDMA suppliers: Ericsson, Lucent, Nokia, and Siemens
Benefits of membership/join GSA – see www.gsacom.com/about/index.php4
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
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GSM/3G Resources
- GSM/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA
GMD™Newsletter
www.gsacom.com
Push to Talk on a Mobile Phone (Opinion Paper)
www.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Network Update
www.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Operators Zone
for GSM-family operators
register at
www.gsacom.com
Services/market/technology updates
www.gsacom.com/gmd/index.php4
WCDMA Databank – deployments, devices
www.gsacom.com
EDGE Databank – deployments, devices,
platforms
www.gsacom.com
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