Chapter 14 SAMPLING McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Learning Objectives Understand . . . The two premises on which sampling theory is based. The accuracy and precision for measuring sample validity. The five questions that must be answered to develop a sampling plan. 14-2 Learning Objectives Understand . . . The two categories of sampling techniques and the variety of sampling techniques within each category. The various sampling techniques and when each is used. 14-3 Pull Quote “We have to hear what’s being said in a natural environment, and social media is an obvious place to do this, but we also have to go and discover the opinions that are not being openly shared. Only then can we understand the dichotomy between the public and private persona.” Ben Leet, sales director uSamp 14-4 The Nature of Sampling Population Population Element Sampling Frame Census Sample 14-5 Why Sample? Availability of elements Greater speed Lower cost Sampling provides Greater accuracy 14-6 What Is a Sufficiently Large Sample? “In recent Gallup ‘Poll on polls,’ . . . When asked about the scientific sampling foundation on which polls are based . . . most said that a survey of 1,500 – 2,000 respondents—a larger than average sample size for national polls—cannot represent the views of all Americans.” Frank Newport The Gallup Poll editor in chief The Gallup Organization 14-7 When Is a Census Appropriate? Feasible Necessary 14-8 What Is a Valid Sample? Accurate Precise 14-9 Sampling Design within the Research Process 14-10 Types of Sampling Designs Element Probability Selection •Unrestricted • Simple random •Restricted Nonprobability • Convenience • Complex random • Purposive • Systematic • Judgment •Cluster •Quota •Stratified •Snowball •Double 14-11 Steps in Sampling Design What is the target population? What are the parameters of interest? What is the sampling frame? What is the appropriate sampling method? What size sample is needed? 14-12 When to Use Larger Sample? Population variance Number of subgroups Confidence level Desired precision Small error range 14-13 Simple Random Advantages Disadvantages Easy to implement Requires list of with random dialing population elements Time consuming Larger sample needed Produces larger errors High cost 14-14 Sample Frame List of elements in population Complete and correct Error rate increases over time May include elements that must be screened out International frames most problematic 14-15 How to Choose a Random Sample 14-16 Systematic Advantages Disadvantages Simple to design Periodicity within Easier than simple population may skew sample and results Trends in list may bias results Moderate cost random Easy to determine sampling distribution of mean or proportion 14-17 Stratified Advantages Disadvantages Control of sample size in Increased error if strata Increased statistical efficiency Provides data to represent and analyze subgroups Enables use of different methods in strata subgroups are selected at different rates Especially expensive if strata on population must be created High cost 14-18 Cluster Advantages Disadvantages Provides an unbiased Often lower statistical estimate of population parameters if properly done Economically more efficient than simple random Lowest cost per sample Easy to do without list efficiency due to subgroups being homogeneous rather than heterogeneous Moderate cost 14-19 Stratified and Cluster Sampling Stratified Cluster Population divided into Population divided into few subgroups Homogeneity within subgroups Heterogeneity between subgroups Choice of elements from within each subgroup many subgroups Heterogeneity within subgroups Homogeneity between subgroups Random choice of subgroups 14-20 Area Sampling Well defined political or geographical boundaries Low cost Frequently used 14-21 Double Sampling Advantages Disadvantages May reduce costs if first Increased costs if stage results in enough data to stratify or cluster the population discriminately used 14-22 Nonprobability Samples No need to generalize Feasibility Limited objectives Time Cost 14-23 Nonprobability Sampling Methods Convenience Judgment Quota Snowball 14-24 Key Terms Area sampling Multiphase sampling Census Nonprobability Cluster sampling sampling Population Population element Population parameters Population proportion of incidence Probability sampling Convenience sampling Disproportionate stratified sampling Double sampling Judgment sampling 14-25 Key Terms Proportionate Simple random stratified sampling Quota sampling Sample statistics Sampling Sampling error Sampling frame Sequential sampling sample Skip interval Snowball sampling Stratified random sampling Systematic sampling Systematic variance 14-26 Chapter 14 ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION OPPORTUNITIES McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Snapshot: Ford’s New Sample Dealers control 75% of advertising Recruited 30 influential dealers Morpace conducted focus groups 72-hour marathon of questions Gave voice to important group 14-28 Snapshot: Research for Good 14-29 PicProfile: Mixed-Access Sampling 14-30 CloseUp: Keynote Experiment 14-31 CloseUp: Keynote Experiment (cont.) 14-32 Pull Quote “The proof of the pudding is in the eating. By a small sample we may judge of the whole piece.” Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra author 14-33 PulsePoint: Research Revelation 80 The average number of text messages sent per day by American teens. 14-34 Chapter 14 SAMPLING McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Photo Attributions Slide Source 5 ©Ocean/Corbis 9 Chris Satttlberger/Getty Images 12 Jochen Sands/Getty Images 13 Getty Images 15 KidStock/Getty Images 23 Ryan McVay/Getty Images 24 Photodisc/Getty Images 28 David and Les Jacobs/Blend Images 14-36