APOCALYPSE NOW!!!
GLOBAL WARMING IS COMING !!!
IS IT COMING ?
IS IT WARMING ?
IS IT GLOBAL ?
IS IT NOW ?
IS IT APOCALYPSE ?
A. Illarionov
Adviser to the President of Russia
February 14, 2005
© Institute of Economic Analysis
www.iea.ru
Apocalypse now:
how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth
«Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking
glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists
warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place
today, not the day after tomorrow. …
Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less
hospitable world, are likely to pay special attention to the first
few weeks of 2005. As they puzzle over how a whole generation
could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate
that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past
11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time
when the last alarms sounded».
Independent,
UK newspaper
06 February 2005
EU target request for temperature
Meinshausen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request for CO2 concentration
Meinshausen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request
for global CO2 emissions reduction
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request
for regional CO2 emissions reduction by 2020
(for the OECD – by 30%).
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request
for regional CO2 emissions reduction by 2050
(for the OECD – by approximately 95%).
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Criterion for the temperature increase is nonsense –
for thousands of years temperature was more than 2oC higher than
in pre-industrial period WITHOUT anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Temperature variability over last 415 000 years.
6,0
4,0
+2о
0,0
-2,0
-4,0
-6,0
-8,0
-10,0
9
24
38
53
67
82
96
111
125
140
154
169
183
198
212
227
241
256
270
285
299
314
328
343
357
372
386
401
-12,0
415
Temperature, oС
2,0
Time, thousands of years before present
Source: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and
palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok
Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.
©ИЭА
Criterion for speed of temperature increase is nonsense –
in the past it has been many times higher
than it was in the 20th century.
Speed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand years
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
+0,6оC
1657
1159
683
7
-591
-1233
-1959
-2698
-3508
-4416
-5374
-6429
-7584
-8542
-9432
-11127
-12424
-14319
-16882
-19798
-23234
-26984
-30750
-34214
-37976
-41010
-44158
-4
-6
-8
-10
-47927
Degrees C for 100 years
16
Time, years
Source: NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004.
©ИЭА
Criterion for СО2 concentration is nonsense –
for millions of years СО2 concentration in the
atmosphere was much higher than 400 ppm.
0,04
CO2 concentration in Lower Cretaceous — Cainozoe.
Source: Budyko М.I., Ronov А.B., Yanshin А.l., History of atmosphere, 1985.
©ИЭА
The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception –
the very concept of “Global Warming” is based
on poorly processed, if not falsified, data.
lPCC-used and corrected versions of global temperature anomalies indices for Northern Hemisphere, 1400-1980
Source: S. McIntyre, R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern
©ИЭА
Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment. Volume 14, Number 6, 2003.
Calculations distorted –
temperature calculations for the USA
produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted.
Difference in temperature anomalies measurements for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley,
11YMA, 1890−2003
Sources: NOAA, Hadley Centre.
©ИЭА
NO Warming in the USA in the 20th century –
temperature (without urban heat island effect) in 1990s
has been 0,2оС lower that in late 1930s − early 1940s.
Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA, 11YMA, 1890−2000
0,6
0,4
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
1880
1883
1886
1889
1892
1895
1898
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
Degrees C
0,2
Source: Hadley Centre.
©ИЭА
Imaginary deception –
decline in ice surface in the Arctic from September 1979 through
September 2003 is result of not a secular trend,..
Source: Impacts of Warming Arctic, p. 25.
…but of 30 year-long upward trend
in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle.
Temperature anomalies for the Arctic, 11YMA, 1890−2000
0,8
0,6
Arctic
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
Source: Hadley Centre.
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
-1,0
1880
Degrees C
0,4
©ИЭА
Greenland does NOT experience secular Global Warming
since temperature there today is still lower
than it was 60 years ago.
Temperature anomalies for the Greenland, 11YMA, 1880−2004
1,5
Central Greenland
1,0
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
1880
1883
1886
1889
1892
1895
1898
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Degrees C
0,5
Source: Hadley Centre.
©ИЭА
NO Warming in Antarctic –
for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease.
On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there.
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Warming in Antarctic is limited
to only Antarctic peninsula, that contains only 0,5% of total
Antarctic ice, the full melting of which over centuries
can potentially contribute to maximum 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly
associated not with air warming, but with ocean current.
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
No acceleration in Sea level Rise –
WITH anthropogenic CO2 emissions
it rises 10 times slower than WITHOUT it.
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
No Global Flood –
according to the most dangerous scenarios
sea level rise will be limited to 30−50 cм by 2100.
Nicholls
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
NO Kilimanjaro ice cap melting
due to Global Warming,..
©ИЭА
…since local temperature was falling over last 40 years.
Temperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlands, 1961-1995
18,6
18,5
18,4
18,3
18,1
18,0
17,9
17,8
17,7
17,6
17,5
17,4
17,3
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Degrees C
18,2
Source: GISS, NASA.
©ИЭА
Theoretically speaking, over long-run
Gulf Stream may shut down...
Wood
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
…but certainly not in the 21st century.
And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.
Wood
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
No acidification of ocean
that is principally different from the trend observed during
transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one
when there was NO anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Turley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Growth of prosperity
is the most effective defense against natural hazards.
Fatalities from natural hazards and GDP per capita in the USA, 1950-2003
Source: US National Statistics.
©ИЭА
It is especially true in poor countries
where it saves literally millions of lives.
GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, 1985-1996
Number of fatalities per 1 mln of population
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
y = 263,84x-0,65
4
R = 0,25
2
2
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
GDP per capita, thousands of 1999 PPP $
Source: United Nations.
©ИЭА
СО2 emissions are not air pollutant emissions.
They are moving in different directions.
CО2 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), 1971-2001
Source: Statistical Abstract of the USA 2003.
©ИЭА
Fight against non-existent threat
could cost world economy just peanuts!
Either US$ 12−27 trln..,
Edmonds
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
…or US$ 17−47 trln..,
Metz
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
…or up to US$ 1800 trln.
Shall we pay?
Source: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119.
©ИЭА