Public Perceptions of Terrorism
and Government Preparedness
National and Local Trends and Findings
November 16, 2005
Presented by
Dan Nataf, Ph.D
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
101 College Parkway
Arnold, MD 21012
(410) 777-2733
(410) 777-4733 fax
ddnataf@aacc.edu
www2.aacc.edu/csli
1
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence:
National Trends and Findings
• National Trends
– Bush and approval handling terrorism and
homeland security
– Bush and Iraq
– Bush and overall job approval
– Perceptions about why no follow-up attack
– Confidence in government
– Sources: Polls cited in www.pollingreport.com
2
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National
 Bush Handling of Terrorism and Homeland Security
Approval of Bush's job on handling terrorism and homeland security
75
65
65
59
55
Approve
48
46
Disapprove, 41
45
38
35
51
44
49
45
35
25
15
5
8
7
2/1
9-2
0/0
4
3/2
5-2
6/0
4
4/8
-
Unsure
9/0
4
3/1
7-1
8/0
5
8/2
-
6
4/0
5
9/8
-
9/0
5
9/2
9-3
0/0
5
11
/10
-11
/05
3
50
56
43
10/30 - 11/2/05
43
9/8-11/05
8/25-28/05
6/2-5/05
4/5/05
3/5/05
1/5/05
12/4/04
50
7/22-25/04
6/17-20/04
Disapprove
5/20-23/04
4/15-18/04
3/4-7/04
2/10-11/04
67
1/15-18/04
12/18-21/03
20
10/26-29/03
40
10/9-13/03
Approve
9/10-13/03
30
9/4-7/03
83
4/3/03
92
2/3/03
1/3/03
12/2/02
10/2/05
80
9/2/02
60
7/2/02
70
5/2/02
10
4/2/02
3/2/02
1/2/02
90
12/1/01
10/1/01
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National
 Bush Handling of Terrorism ONLY
Bush - Approval handling terrorism (only)
100
Iraq War
79%
Saddam, 70%
51
48
35
25
10
0
4
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National
Bush - % approving handling of war in Iraq
Bush - Approve handling of Iraq
80
70
69
65
Approve, 58%
60
61
60
62
65
57
54
53
51
50
47
46
40
40
39
47
46
42
49
44
51
48
45
50
45
50
43
42
36
30
53
47
45
54
50
51
44
44
41
35
Disapprove, 39%
34
36
33
30
29
26
20
Unsure, 7%
10
5
6
8
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
5
7
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
2/19- 3/2520/04 26/04
4/89/04
5/13- 3/1714/04 18/05
8/24/05
9/89/05
5
5
0
5/12/03
5/29- 7/10- 7/24- 8/21- 9/11- 9/18- 9/25- 10/9- 10/23- 11/6- 12/11- 12/18- 1/830/03 11/03 25/03 22/03 12/03 19/03 26/03 10/03 24/03 7/03 12/03 19/03 9/04
9/29- 11/1030/05 11/05
5
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National
 Bush overall job approval
6
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence : National
Why no new attacks?
Domestic security measures more important than military action in Iraq
"Which one of the following do you think is the most likely reason there
have been no attacks by al Qaeda on the United States since the
September 11 attacks? Homeland security measures prevented them.
No attacks were planned. The military action in Iraq prevented them."
11/8-9/05 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
Security measures
24%
No attacks planned
19%
Military action in Iraq
16%
Combination
26%
Other/unsure
16%
7
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: National
Confidence that US govt. can protect from terrorism
Confidence US Govt can protect from terrorist attack
70
60
60
Fair amount
54
53
50
47
40
40
35
30
29
Not much/none
23
37
26
20
10
11
16
A great deal
16
0
9/2
10
/8/
0-2
01
3/0
1
10
11
12
1/5
/25
/13
/7-6/
10
-28
-14
02
/0 1
/01
/01
6/2
/0 5
7/2
/0 5
9/2
/0 5
8/2
9/6
9-3
-7/
05
1/0
5
10
/3-
5/0
5
8
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
Issues to be examined
•Bush approval
•Bush approval by “know someone in military in
Iraq/Afghanistan
•Bush ‘best’ and ‘worst’ policies – spotlight on Iraq
•How important is ‘terrorism’ among other issues
•Likelihood of terrorist attack in Anne Arundel County
over next year
•Perceived preparedness level of local authorities
•Compare with confidence local authorities can deal with
economic and environmental challenges
•How has 9-11 changed people’s lives (if at all)
•Citizens own emergency preparedness
9
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
Bush Job Approval
Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve 45% Disapprove 48% Unsure 7%
Gallup (11-15-05) Approve 37% Disapprove 60% Unsure
3%
Those with ‘friend or family member currently serving in the military in Iraq
or Afghanistan’ (39% of sample): Approve 48% Disapprove 45% Unsure 6%
Without:
Approve 42% Disapprove 51% Unsure 6%
10
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
 Best Policies by Party Registration
Best Policy by Party
40%
40
35
30
29% 29%
25
20
Democrat
Republican
Independent
15
10
5
0
Ira
q
Ho
W
Ed
Ab
Ta
SC
Af
SS
O
th
ar
gh
x
m
o
P
R
N
er
r
Ec
on
el
o
tio
an
ef
om
l
an
i
or
on
cy
.
n
Te
d
m
rr
or
11
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
 Worst Policies by Party Registration
Worst Policy by Party
25
20
80
43
70
15
Democrat
Republican
Independent
10
5
0
Ira W Ta SC SS E
Ab En G
Im S
K
S
O
d
ar
m pe atr taff the
q
x
or vi as
R
P
N
pr ig nd ina
on Ec
r
tio ro
om ef ol
r
n
i
o
o
c
n
Te n
m ice tn ing
rm y
t
/D
rr
or
ef
12
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
Most Important Issues – Concern for Terrorism is event driven
Most Important Issue - Trends
40
35
Crime
Growth
30
25
20
Education
15
Taxes
10
5
'0
5
Fa
'0
5
Sp
Fa
'0
4
Sp
'0
3
Fa
'0
3
Sp
'0
2
Fa
'0
2
'0
1
Sp
Fa
‘0
1
‘0
0
Sp
Fa
‘0
0
Sp
'9
9
Fa
‘9
9
‘9
8
Sp
Fa
‘9
8
‘9
7
Sp
Fa
‘9
7
‘9
6
Sp
Fa
‘9
6
Sp
‘9
5
Fa
-5
'0
4
Terrorism
0
13
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
Likelihood of terrorist attack over next year
Likelihood of Terrorist Attack in County
Not very
likely , 64%
70
60
59%
Somewhat
likely , 43%
50
40
Very
30 likely,
25%
20
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not very likely
Unsure
30%
9%
10
3%
0
l
Fa
l2
l2
l2
5
00
05
20
4
00
3
00
03
20
2
00
1
00
g
rin
Sp
l
Fa
l
Fa
l2
l2
g
rin
Sp
l
Fa
l
Fa
14
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike or
Natural Disaster (vs. Economy/Environment
Preparedness/
Confidence
Very
Terror
Disaster
Econ.
Environ.
11
11
8
7
Somewhat
42
49
45
38
Not very
44
36
41
50
No answer
3
4
7
6
15
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike - Trend
60
Somewhat
prepared
50
40
30
20
44
37
30
22
Very prepared
42
Not very
24 prepared , 18%
10
27
Unsure
0
Fall 2001 Fall 2002
Spring
2003
Fall 2003
11
3
Spring Fall 2004 Fall 2005
2004
16
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
County’s Direction: Right or Wrong?
 Low confidence but still ‘right’ direction
County - Right or Wrong Direction
Right, 66%
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
57
25
Sp
Fa
99
Sp
00
Fa
00
Sp
01
Fa
01
Sp
27
Wrong
15
20
99
51
42
34
Econ Poor+Fair
23
57
28
13
02
Fa
02
Sp
03
Fa
16
Unsure
03
Sp
04
Fa
4
'0
Sp
5
'0
Fa
5
'0
17
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
9-11: Long term effects
 No change since 2001
Life Back to Normal after 9-11 or changes stayed a major
part of life?
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Stay in Life,
29%
Stay in Life,
31%
Stay in Life,
32%
Back
Normal,
65%
Back
Normal,
63%
Back
Normal,
64%
F
1
'0
S
2
'0
S
5
'0
18
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
9-11: What changes are important?
Response (Spring 2005)
Cases
Percent
Traveling less, especially by air
19
22
More suspicious and aware of surroundings and
people
15
17
Heightened security
14
16
Relatives in the military
10
12
Awareness of issues
9
10
Discrimination
2
2
Emergency Plan
2
2
Other
15
17
86
98
Total
19
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence: Local
Have you prepared for an emergency such as a terrorist attack or
natural disaster?
Spring Fall Spring
2003 2003 2004
Developed a family plan of action - YES
43
58
49
NO
51
42
49
Unsure/no answer
6
1
2
Obtained/review County “Emergency
Preparedness” guide - YES
20
34
n.a.
Watch County Fire Department
program on how to prepare for
emergencies on cable TV? - YES
n.a
25
n.a.
n.a.
53
n.a.
Was info helpful (very helpful)
20