The first Green
Revolution
• In 1940’s plant
geneticists, began using
traditional methods of
cross-breeding to create
plants with desirable
traits, including
• Larger, more nutritious
seeds, fruit
• Resistance to pests and
disease
• Focused chiefly on
wheat, corn, and rice
Norman Borlaug
The first Green Revolution
• Initial plants for
breeding a new type of
wheat obtained from
Japan after World War
2
• Up through the 1960’s,
wheat varieties bred
promote resistance to
common diseases and
semi-dwarfism
The first Green Revolution
• Semi-dwarfism
• Shorter stem and fewer
leaves allowed more
growth to be directed to
seed
• Shorter stem would stay
upright even with
heavier loads of seed
Successes
• As a result of the Green Revolution in the 1960's, 70's
and 80's, crop yields soared in India, China and Latin
America. One billion deaths from starvation averted
• Lower food prices occurred globally
• If food remained scarce in these countries, it was the
result of politics and food distribution
Drivers of successes
• Rise in planting density. Greater
planting density yields more
grain per field.
• Nitrogen fertilizers
• Newer varieties tolerated
stresses associated with
increased planting density
• Initial improvements in crop
productivity achieved without
DNA biotechnology – traditional
crop breeding was employed.
The early and late Green Revolution
MV refers to high yield crop varieties produced
and released to general republic
The Green Revolution is best understood not as a one-time jump in production, occurring in
the 1960s, but rather as a long-term increase in the trend growth rate of productivity marked
by a “late Green Revolution” from 1981 to 2000 that occurred mainly in Africa and the Middle
East.
The Green Revolution in Africa
• Arrived later and produced smaller gains because:
• Many different types of crops grown across Africa
• Green Revolution breeding targeted only certain crops
that grow in rich soils with ample water. Plants for
marginal lands not targeted
• Asking African farmers to invest in Green Revolution
meant asking them to invest in unsuitable plants
• Lack of laboratory-refined germplasm to initiate breeding
• Political instability due to independence movements
African independence (1960s1970s)
Side effects of successes of Green
Revolution
• Uneven development: not all countries and
farmers benefited equally
• Displacement of small farmers, altered livelihoods
• Increased dependency of small farmers on global
markets
• Dependency upon fossil fuels
• Increased water and pesticide use
• Changes in crop diversity and plant nutritional
content
Displacement of
small farmers
• With Green Revolution, shift
to monoculture export crops
grown on large plantations
• Replaced diverse types of
traditional agriculture
• Export crops replaced food
crops
• Land became concentrated with
large landholders who can
afford land and the cost of
inputs
• Subsequent neoliberal
economics and free trade
forced small farmers to
participate in global markets
often to their detriment.
Greater dependency on fossil
fuels for:
• Fertilizer production
• Production of pesticides
and herbicides
• Operation of tractors and
farm equipment
Haber process of fertilizer
production
Price of food tied to price of fuel
Increased water use
Increased pesticide use
Changes in plants and their foods
• Loss of nutritional content
Index of nutritional content
Nutritional content of global grains has declined as production has increased since 1960.
Index of nutritional content for eight grains (barley, oats, maize, millet, rice, rye, sorghum,
and wheat) from 1961 to 2011 for macronutrients (energy and protein) and micronutrients
(iron and zinc).
Loss of genetic diversity
• In 1903, US seed catalogs listed
408 pea varieties; only 25 can be
found now (a 95% decrease) and
by 1970, just two pea varieties
comprised 96% of the US
commercial crop.
• On average, across all crops
grown in the US. over 90% of the
varieties grown 100 years ago
are no longer in commercial
production or maintained in
major seed storage facilities.
Loss of genetic
diversity
Citrus greening
• Uniformity in genetic makeup
increases susceptibility to
disease
Cavendish banana
Fusarium wilt
Landraces and heirloom varietals
• A landrace is a local
variety of a domesticated
animal or plant species
which has developed by
adaptation to the specific
natural and cultural
environment in which it
lives.
• More genetically and
phenotypically (physically)
diverse than formal
breeds.
• Analogous to heirloom
varietals
In India farmers have planted 30,000 different varieties of rice over the past 50 years, with
the varieties grown in a region closely matched to its soils, climate and so forth. With the
advent of green revolution varieties, this has changed. It is estimated that 75% of all rice
fields in India were planted to just 10 varieties in 2005.
Feeding more 9 billion by 2050
• Over the past half-century, human population has
doubled but food production has kept pace
• Fraction of people with insufficient food has declined
dramatically, from 60% in 1960 to about 15% in 2010
• Nonetheless, 1 billion people remain chronically
underfed and another 2 billion suffer from
micronutrient deficiencies.
• Need a doubling of crop production between 2005 and
2050
• Is it imperative, then, to accelerate agricultural
production?
A second Green Revolution?
A second Green Revolution?
• How it will differ from the first Green Revolution:
•
•
•
•
Will rely more upon GMOs and biotechnology
Must meet the needs of small-scale farmers
Must feed a much larger urban population
Will be constrained by who controls remaining suitable
agricultural land
• Must balance agricultural demands with conservation
• Will take place under greater climate unpredictability
due to rising CO2 levels
Meeting the needs of small-scale
food producers
Through political
organizing among
small farm-holders,
Cambodian
rice has improved
in quality
and captured
market share
from Thailand, the
world’s leading
rice producer
• Fair trade offers a
mechanism to benefit
small farmers
• Fair trade is a
commodity chain
structure put into place
to insure that fair and
equitable economic
and ecological
advantages return to
small farmer when
they participate in
distant markets
However, a negative of fair trade is that it can become commodified and acts as an exclusionary
mechanism. Not all farmers benefit, only those that get chosen for fair trade mechanisms.
Urban population growth
In 2008, the population of people living in urban areas exceeded those in rural areas for the
first time in history
Must feed a large urban population
• Dhaka
Vertical agriculture and indoor farming
Constrained by who controls
remaining suitable agricultural land
The global agricultural land grab
Food versus forests in the tropics
Tropical time bomb?
• Increasing global food demand, including from Africa,
which has an emerging middle class from Ghana and
Nigeria down to Angola
• Remaining arable land is found in tropics
• Major expansion and intensification of tropical
agriculture, especially in Sub- Saharan Africa and South
America.
• May result in augmented loss and alteration of tropical
old-growth forests and semi-arid environments
• May intensify conflicts between food production and
nature conservation.
Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations
may alter nutritional status of crops
Percentage change of nutrients at elevated levels of CO2
GMOs will be part of the second
Green Revolution
Future improvements in crop
health and increases in yields
may depend upon the use
and public acceptance of
GMO crops.