BRAINS DON’T DO MONEY Obvious, perhaps, but often overlooked © Alan Newman https://uk.linkedin.com/in/alangnewman Evidence from our DNA, and from the fossil record, suggests that modern humans were roaming the savannahs of East Africa about 70,000 years ago. That’s about 3,000 generations: so it wouldn’t be a very large crowd of your direct ancestors that took you back to that time. (The portrait in the picture is based on a reconstruction from a fossil: the oldest modern human found so far. It comes from southern Ethiopia and dates back about 125,000 years.) Successful brains not only helped their owners get food but also stopped them becoming food for something else. That meant survival. And brains were also good enough at connecting with other brains so their owners could have sex. Without that you would not be here. That world was complicated. Whether it was food or sex, our ancestors had to make good enough decisions, quickly, in a world characterised by uncertainty and incomplete information. © alan g newman 2 Business Psychologist The Human Brain (1) © alan g newman 3 Business Psychologist The answer to the question, “How old is money?” depends on what you mean by money. In modern day Anatolia, Obsidian was used as a medium of exchange about 12,000 years ago. Heads of cattle (an example of synecdoche: we don’t literally mean heads) were also counted as a store of value – which is where we get capital from: capita meaning head. Some types of grains were used as money and, around 2000 BC, it is possible that the Shekel may have referred to a weight of barley. Cowry shells also have a history of being used as a means of exchange. Greek arrowhead money dates to about the 7th Century BC and it is also about this time that we see the earliest example of COINAGE, as we understand it today. The gold coloured coins are from Lydia (in modern day Turkey) and are made from electrum. © alan g newman 4 Business Psychologist Money © alan g newman 5 Business Psychologist Although a human brain, when removed from the skull, may look like an amorphous mixture of blancmange and porridge it does in fact have structure. Different parts of the brain specialise in different things. This is referred to as functional localisation. For example, there is a part of the brain that is focused on nouns, another on short term memory and another on long term memory. The back of the brain is called the visual cortex because that is where most of the processing takes place to make sense of what we see. Another part of the brain specialises in muscular co-ordination and movement; another on processing emotions; another on hearing. You get the picture. But there is no specialised part of the brain that processes money. Money has not been around long enough for such an area to have evolved. © alan g newman 6 Business Psychologist The Human Brain (2) © alan g newman 7 Business Psychologist The situation is complicated further by the fact that the notion of money itself is still changing. To a certain extent the points on loyalty cards (e.g. Nectar, Boots Advantage Card) are money and the same applies to Air Miles. There are also local currencies such as the Brixton pound and the Lewes pound. And crypto currencies such as the Aurora and Bitcoin. And how might PayPal or Apple Pay evolve? © alan g newman 8 Business Psychologist Modern versions of money © alan g newman 9 Business Psychologist So let us remind ourselves of what brains like. What is it that brains do naturally that has a bearing on how they process money-related information well and not so well? © alan g newman 10 Business Psychologist What Brains Like Brains prefer this . . . . to this. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Easy Guaranteed Now Pretty Short term Simple Stories Sweet • SYSTEM 1 © alan g newman Difficult Provisional Later Ugly Long term Complicated PPT Presentations Sour • SYSTEM 2 11 Business Psychologist Psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, Daniel Kahneman, has pointed out that we have two Thinking Systems called, imaginatively, System 1 and System 2. We use System 1 most of the time. About 95% of the time in fact. © alan g newman 12 Business Psychologist THINKING, Fast and Slow System 1 System 2 • Effortless • Effortful • Fast • Slow • Intuitive • Calculating • Non-rational • Rational • Sub-conscious • Conscious © alan g newman 13 Business Psychologist First, brain subconsciously focus on the benefits of the outcome. This food tastes nice or This food might taste nice. Or, This piece of affection or sex will be enjoyable. Second, brain looks at what the downside might be – cost and/or risk. Last time I had this food it was good. (No risk). Last time I tried a new food it didn’t taste great. (Risk. Unpleasant consequence.) My social status is based partly on my willingness to try new foods. This person may already have a mate. (Courting might be risky and weapons for hunting can be used to fight other humans.) Third, brain subconsciously factors in time. If the benefits and/or costs and risks occur now or soon a good deal of weight is attached to them. If they occur in the future they are discounted in an exaggerated fashion. For example, although seasons in one part of the world may be different to those in another (e.g. Hot and cold vs wet and dry) our ancestors would have know that ‘the good times’ did not last. The fruit got eaten or rotted; migrating herds moved on. © alan g newman 14 Business Psychologist Give brain a money task (1) 1 The benefits © alan g newman 2 Risks and Costs 15 3 Time. NOW is good Business Psychologist Fast forward to today and consider how our Stone Age brain deals with a 21C money task. How does a brain perceive a credit card and a pension plan? A credit card dovetails well with brain wiring: the benefits are easy to understand. They also relate to real life and immediate gratification. And if we’ve been ‘pre-approved’ that social recognition is an added feel-good factor. The cost and risks seem low – we’re in control and the minimum monthly payments are easy to understand and seem manageable; and the timescale is good too – monthly (i.e. short term). A pension plan does not dovetail well with brain wiring. In the most common pension plan (defined contributions) the benefits are uncertain. It is risky too because Governments always seem to be fiddling with the terms and conditions that are attached to pension schemes; and payoff is a long way off. Who knows what our lives will be like 10, 15, or 25 years from now? © alan g newman 16 Business Psychologist Give brain a money task (2) BENEFITS? COSTS & RISKS? TIMESCALE ? ANGELIS MERKOULOS © alan g newman BENEFITS? COSTS & RISKS? X X TIMESCALE ? X X XX 17 X Business Psychologist Classical economics assumes that people treat a pound the same way as any other pound, irrespective of how we came by the money, and irrespective of how we intend to use it. Behavioural economics, on the other hand, says that brains exhibit ‘mental accounting’, the tendency for us to separate our money into separate accounts based on a variety of subjective criteria, like the source of the money and the intent for each account. Once we have put money, literally or figuratively, into separate ‘jars’ (accounts) we are loathe to use it for another purpose. What mental accounts do you use? © alan g newman 18 Business Psychologist Mental Accounting © alan g newman 19 Business Psychologist Mental accounting is just one example of how brains ‘do money’. Psychologists who specialise in behavioural economics note that we exhibit ‘bounded rationality’: in decision-making, our rationality is limited by the information we have, the cognitive limitations of our minds, and the finite amount of time we have to make a decision. As a consequence certain strategies have evolved that have helped our brains make accurate-enough decisions, quickly, based on limited information. These strategies include heuristics (mental short cuts); and cognitive biases (an asymmetric, non rational way of perceiving risks and pay-offs). Some of the more widespread examples and their consequences are included in this list. © alan g newman 20 Business Psychologist Heuristics & Biases Affective reasoning, Anchoring, Availability heuristic, Base rate neglect, Belief perseverance, Black swans, Bounded rationality, Choice architecture, Cognitive bias, Cognitive dissonance, Confirmation bias, Decoy effect, Defaults, Endowment effect, Focusing illusion, Framing, Gambler’s fallacy, Group think, Habits, Halo effect, Herd instinct, Hindsight bias, Hyperbolic discounting, Illusions, Loss aversion, Mental accounting, MINDSPACE, Money (or Big Number) Illusion, the MPG Illusion, Multiple selves, Narrative fallacy, Nudging, Optimism bias, Over confidence, Planning fallacy, Salience, Status Quo Bias, Sunk cost fallacy, Ultimatum game, Wilful blindness, Zero risk bias. © alan g newman 21 Business Psychologist Research for The BBC Big Money Test was carried out by The Open University and University College London. Finance guru Martin Lewis was also involved and presented the findings and insights on the TV programme based on the research results. One of the findings is that each of us, to a greater or lesser extent, exhibits a number of ‘money personas’: bargain hunter, gambler, miser, shopperspender, and tycoon. A different persona steps forward under different circumstances. As consumers we are complicated and sometimes contradictory. © alan g newman 22 Business Psychologist Multiple selves Each of us is a personal combination of : • • • • • Bargain hunter Gambler Miser Shopper-spender Tycoon Under what circumstances does each one step forward? © alan g newman 23 Business Psychologist Bottom line? We are complicated and non-rational when it comes to money matters. © alan g newman 24 Business Psychologist BRAINS DON’T DO MONEY © Alan Newman https://uk.linkedin.com/in/alangnewman