Political Science 497A
Exploring the Global Future
Spring, 1999
Professor Stuart A. Bremer
163N Burrowes Building
Office hours: Monday, Wednesday, Friday 2:30-3:30,
and by appointment
Office: 865-1890
Home: 466-4847
Email: sbremer@psu.edu
The aim of this course is to look into the future and consider some problems that the globe is
likely to confront. It has a somewhat unconventional structure since about half of our class time
will be spent in the computer lab using a computer model called International Futures (IFs),
while the other half of our class time will have the more common lecture-discussion format. The
readings, lectures, discussions, and lab sessions are intended to give you a deeper understanding
of such problems as overpopulation, global poverty, food shortages, energy bottlenecks, etc. and
sharpen your analytical capabilities regarding potential solutions to these problems.
The readings for the course are drawn from the texts listed below. Please note that the Hughes
text (which is a prepublication copy of his third edition) is only available at the Student Book
Store (330 E. College Ave.) as a course packet.
Allen Hammond, Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century. Island Press, 1998.
Micheal T. Snarr & D. Neil Snarr, eds., Introducing Global Issues. Lynne Rienner
Publishers, 1998.
Robert M. Jackson, ed., Global Issues 98/99. Dushkin/McGraw-Hill, 1998.
Barry B. Hughes, International Futures. Prepublication copy, 1998.
In order for us to use our class time effectively it is important that you complete the
assigned reading before the appropriate scheduled class.
The lab sessions will be held in the Political Science Computer Lab in the Burrowes building.
For the first several weeks of the semester you will work in teams of two to familiarize yourself
with the IFs model. After that point you will work individually. Each student will be assigned a
computer account and 20 MB of disk space to store simulation results. Do not save any files that
you wish to keep on disk C because they are likely to disappear during the time between
sessions. As you work your way through the IFs model it is highly recommended that you keep a
lab notebook containing model commands, important variable names and definitions, useful
parameter names and definitions, comments about scenarios you create, problems you encounter
with the model, etc. This notebook will save you much time in the end since you will not have to
rely on the manual so much. If necessary, extra time in the computer lab will be arranged.
Your course grade will be based on the following elements.
Mid term examination
25%
Lab exercises
20%
Discussion &
Presentation
20%
Final paper
35%
Please note that the mid term exam will be on March 2nd and the final paper is due April 29th (a
penalty will be assessed for a late paper). Details about the final paper will be provided later. In
the last week of class each student is expected to present a brief (5-7 minutes) presentation on the
subject of his or her final paper.
The World Wide Web is a valuable resource on global problems. One web site that you should
check out soon is maintained by Barry Hughes, the developer of the IFs simulation. His web site
is
http://www.ifs.du.edu/IF_Links.html
Other relevant web sites are listed on pages 6-7 of Global Issues.
Since this is the first time this course has been offered, unforeseen problems are likely to arise.
Please be patient and bear in mind that the life of a pioneer is often hard.
Class Schedule
January 12 & 14 - Thinking About the Future
Hughes, chapter 1; Hammond, chapter 1; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 1
January 19 & 21 - Global Trends
Hughes, chapter 2; Hammond, chapters 6-9; Jackson, article 1
January 26 - Future Scenarios
Hughes, chapters 3-4; Hammond, chapters 3-5; Jackson, articles 2-3.
January 28 - Lab Session 1
Carry out the exercises contained in chapters 3 and 4 of the IFs manual. Note that
exercises are usually denoted by a solid right arrow (q ) in the manual. Pay
particular attention to the model's Help system and familiarize yourself with it.
February 2 - Population Problems
Hughes, chapter 5; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 9; Jackson, articles 4-8.
February 4 - Lab Session 2
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 5 of the IFs manual. When finished
construct a scenario for India in which you gradually increase the contraception
use multiplier from 1 to 2 over a 30-year period starting in 1995. Run the model
to 2030 and compare the results of the scenario run to the base run. At the end of
the session turn in to me the following.
1) A line graph showing contraception use in the two runs for India.
2) A table showing total population in the two runs for India.
3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the GDP per capita in dollars in the
two runs for India.
Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and write a short paragraph
describing the effect of the parameter change you made on the relevant variable.
Be sure to give descriptive titles to the table and graphs you create.
February 9 - Economic Problems
Hughes, chapter 6; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 6-8; Jackson, articles 22-25.
February 11 - Lab Session 3
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 6 of the IFs manual. When finished
construct a scenario in which you gradually increase the level of protectionism by
the United States so that it is twice as high in 2020 as it is in 1995. Run the model
to 2030 and compare the results of the scenario run to the base run. At the end of
the session turn in to me the following.
1) A line graph showing GDP in the two runs for the United States.
2) A table showing world GDP in the two runs.
3) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the absolute North-South gap in the
two runs.
4) A line graph showing the physical quality of life for Africa in the two runs.
Sign your names on the back of each table or graph and write a short paragraph
describing the effect of the parameter change you made on the relevant variable.
Be sure to give descriptive titles to the table and graphs you create.
February 16 - Food Problems
Hughes, chapter 7; Jackson, articles 15-18.
February 18 - Lab Session 4
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 7 of the IFs manual. When finished
examine the number of malnourished children in Africa in the base run to the year
2100. Focusing on the agricultural investment multiplier try to construct a
scenario in which the number of malnourished children in 2100 is half the number
in the base run. Do the same using the agricultural yield multiplier. At the end of
the session turn in to me the following.
1) A line graph comparing agricultural production in Africa in the base run, your
best agricultural investment scenario, and your best agricultural yield scenario.
2) A line graph comparing the number of malnourished children in Africa in the
three runs.
3) A table showing calories per capita (at 10-year intervals) in the three runs.
4) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) African GDP per capita in the three
runs.
Again, sign your names on the back of each table or graph and write a short
paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you made on the relevant
variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the table and graphs you create.
February 23 - Energy Problems
Hughes, chapter 8; Jackson, articles 19-21.
February 25 - Lab Session 5
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 8 of the IFs manual. When finished
consider the following scenario. Suppose a major war breaks out in the Middle
East in 2005, and as a consequence of this war a substantial amount of damage is
done to the region's oil fields. To implement this scenario set OPEC's energy
export limit so that its energy exports drop to 2 BBL in 2005 and gradually
increase thereafter to 15 BBL in 2013. Run the model to 2050 and compare the
scenario results to the base run. At the end of the session turn the following in to
me.
1) A table showing the energy export limit for OPEC in the two runs.
2) A bar graph showing (at 5-year intervals) the energy exports of OPEC in the
two runs.
3) Some line graphs showing the impact of this event on the standard of living in
the United States, Japan, Europe, China, Russia, and Africa.
As before, sign your names on the back of each table or graph and write a short
paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you made on the relevant
variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the table and graphs you create.
March 2 - Mid Term Examination
March 4 - Lab Session 6
Free session in which you can experiment with possible foci of your course
paper.
March 16- Environmental Problems
Hughes, chapter 9; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 13-15; Jackson, articles 9-14.
March 18 - Lab Session 7
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 9 of the IFs manual. When finished
consider the following scenario. Suppose the United States were to adopt a carbon
tax beginning in the year 2000 which gradually rose to a value of 200 by 2020,
and remains at that level for the rest of the simulation run. Construct a scenario
that implements this change, run the model to the year 2050, and compare your
results to the base run. At the end of the session turn in the following to me.
1) A table showing the carbon tax for the United States in the two runs.
2) A line graph showing energy demand for oil in the United States in the two
runs.
3) A line graph showing the standard of living in the United States in the two
runs.
4) Bar graphs showing (at 10-year intervals) the (a) world temperature, (b) carbon
dioxide levels, and (c) annual carbon emissions in the two runs.
As usual, sign your names on the back of each table or graph and write a short
paragraph describing the effect of the parameter change you made on the relevant
variable. Be sure to give descriptive titles to the table and graphs you create.
March 23 - Quality of Life Problems
Hughes, chapter 10; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 4, 10-12; Jackson, articles 33-34.
March 25 - Lab Session 8
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 10 of the IFs manual. In the base run
the gender empowerment measure (GEM) for Africa is about 0.27 and rises
slowly to about 0.60 in 2100. Construct two different scenarios aimed at
significantly increasing this measure by 2100. To do this you will need to reflect
on the structure of the model and take into consideration the various factors you
have examined in earlier sessions. At the end of the session turn in the following
to me.
For each scenario
1) A table showing the values of the parameter you varied. On the back of this
table give a brief explanation of why you expected this factor to have a positive
impact on GEM.
2) A line graph comparing GEM for Africa in the base and scenario run. On the
back of this graph write a short paragraph describing the effect made by the
parameter change you introduced.
Be sure to sign your names to the back of each table and graph.
March 30 - Security Problems
Hughes, chapter 11; Snarr & Snarr, chapters 2-3, 5; Jackson, articles 35-41.
April 1 - Lab Session 9
Carry out the exercises contained in chapter 11 of the IFs manual. Some believe
that in the next century a "power transition" will occur involving the United States
and China. Examine the power of the two states and the levels of threat perceived
by the two states from one another in the base run. It has been argued that a
liberalization in China would reduce the level of tension between the two states.
Constuct a scenario which accelerates the democratization of China beyond that
which is projected in the base run and see what effect this has on the levels of
threat and military power of the two states. At the end of the session turn in to me
a brief report on your results, documented with appropriate tables and/or graphs.
April 6 - Regional Problems I
Hammond, chapters 11-14; Jackson, articles 28-31
April 8 - Lab Session 10
Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual scenario studies.
April 13 - Regional Problems II
Hammond, chapter 10, 15-16; Jackson, articles 26-27, 32.
April 15 - Lab Session 11
Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual scenario studies.
April 20 - Global Futures
Hughes, chapter 12; Hammond, chapter 17; Snarr & Snarr, chapter 16; Jackson, articles
47-50.
April 22 - Lab Session 12
Unstructured session in which you can work on your individual scenario studies.
April 27 & 29 - Student Presentations
The Pennsylvania State University encourages qualified persons with disabilities to participate
in its programs and activities. If you anticipate needing any type of accommodation in this course
or have questions about physical access, please tell the instructor as soon as possible.