Editorials March (for Current Affairs – 4
th
and 5th July)
(Editorials from The Hindu 01st -15th March 2013)
A recipe for continuing stagflation
This was never going to be an easy budget to present. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram had
to juggle many different considerations, but three must have dominated. First, the need to
bring the economy out of its current spiral of stagflation, with investment and economic
activity both decelerating even as inflation continues to rule very high. Second, the need to
impress the global “epistemic community” — consisting of rating agencies, representatives
of international capital and domestic big business generally as well as other mainstream
figures — all of whom share the view that fiscal rectitude is always desirable and the only
deficits that can be tolerated are privately generated ones. Third, the need to placate his own
party and others in the Indian political establishment who are concerned at how the
announcements he makes in this budget speech and related economic policies will affect the
common people of the country. The last consideration is important because this is the last
full budget before the next general election, which is due in a little over a year.
Those analysts who have gathered some idea about Mr. Chidambaram’s own predilections
will have known what to expect. The Finance Minister is a fiscal hawk who is much more
likely to prefer fiscal contraction in most circumstances, even when economic growth is on a
downward trend. He is also a champion of the interests of large private capital. While he is
no doubt currently constrained by the political compulsions of a government soon to face
elections, he has clearly sought to achieve the second objective, even if at the cost of
generating more stagflation and making material conditions harder for much of the
population.
Not surprisingly, his speech had to obfuscate this unfortunate reality. In what will probably
go down as one of the most boring, repetitive and scattered budget presentations in recent
memory, Mr. Chidambaram did not work with smoke and mirrors so much as rely on the
deadening effect of providing detailed minutiae of particular programmes and making
various vague claims and proposals, often even without providing the fiscal content of such
plans.
Macroeconomic implications
In the event, his silences were actually the more important part of his speech. For what the
Finance Minister did not actually outline were the macroeconomic implications of his chosen
strategy of fiscal consolidation at all costs. The approach seems to be that showing some
amount of fiscal consolidation is essential, that this can only be achieved through cutbacks in
spending (regardless of how this translates into supply shortages or higher inflation in future)
and that growth will miraculously return once private investors (both domestic and foreign)
are persuaded that fiscal deficits will be kept in check. The positive role that public spending
plays — in providing essential infrastructure that is the basis for future growth, in improving
the conditions of life and productivity of the people as a whole, in generating internal
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demand at a time when external demand is problematic, and in ensuring some stability in the
prices of essential items of mass consumption — all these have simply been ignored.
Consider what has been achieved in the current fiscal year: containment of the fiscal deficit
to an “acceptable” level of 5.2 per cent of GDP, essentially by sharp reductions in muchneeded Plan spending. The revised estimates for the current fiscal year show that Plan
spending was nearly 20 per cent below the budget estimates for 2012-13. This was effected
by across the board cuts in all the major sectors, including those that directly affect the
livelihood and well-being of the people. Some sectors suffered severe cuts, with unintended
consequences that we may have yet to experience — for example, actual plan spending on
irrigation and flood control is estimated to be only one-third of the budget amount, while
important sectors like industry and minerals, science and technology and communications
also suffered deep cuts. Even agriculture, rural development and social services (health and
education) experienced sharp cuts in actual expenditure in comparison to the allocations
made in the budget last year.
But the proposed budget is slightly more cynical in its approach to fiscal consolidation. To
begin with, there are fairly extravagant claims about future tax collections on the basis of
very minor increases in some taxes (with even the most optimistic self-assessment
suggesting additional resource mobilisation of only Rs.18,000 crore in total). Despite this,
the FM has budgeted for a significant increase in tax collection of 19 per cent, even though
nominal GDP is projected to increase by only 12.9 per cent. It is hard to understand such a
buoyant prediction, especially when the current year already shows a significant shortfall of
more than five per cent of actual tax collections over the budgeted amount.
Meanwhile, while Plan outlays have been increased slightly over the low revised estimates of
the current year, they show hardly any increase when compared to the budget estimates for
the current year. And the worst sting in the tail is the proposed reduction/elimination of fuel
subsidies: the total subsidy bill is to be brought down by more than Rs.26,000 crore —
almost entirely on account of reduced outlays on fuel subsidies. With global energy prices
still ruling very high, this can only mean that the Central government is preparing to force
Indian consumers to pay global prices for fuel, even though per capita incomes are only a
small fraction of the global average.
Since fuel is a universal intermediate, this is bound to affect all other prices, including those
of essential goods and services like food, transport and so on. And so this is an aggressively
inflationary move, which is more than surprising if the government is truly concerned about
containing inflation and particularly food prices.
As a result, Budget 2013-14 will deliver neither higher growth nor improved conditions of
life — instead it is likely to worsen the stagflationary tendencies in the economy. Given that
poor employment conditions and food insecurity are rapidly emerging as the most significant
political issues, this seems like political hara-kiri. Once this reality sinks in, it is likely that
even people in Mr. Chidambaram’s own party are likely to become more restive about this
strategy.
(Jayati Ghosh is a professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.)
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The sting in the tail is the aggressively inflationary proposal for a reduction of fuel
subsidies
Getting investment back
The Union Budget every year is seen as a statement of the macroeconomic stance of
government, and its expenditure priorities. The macro stance was essentially dictated this
year by the confluence of adverse circumstances facing the country, admirably summarised
at the outset of the budget speech. The expenditure priorities in turn were similarly dictated
by electoral considerations, in the last year of the present government’s five-year term.
Before going into these, the two best features in the entire budget speech were in paras 110
and 56. If followed through, the first will hugely rationalise Plan expenditure and strengthen
the Indian federation all at the same time. This is the promise that the 173 Centrally
Sponsored Schemes (CSS) will be collapsed into 70 schemes, and more importantly, that the
Central component of these will be transferred to States as part of Central Plan assistance.
What a relief this will be to States, which have hitherto been required to pay their co-funding
share into CSS like the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, in proportions dictated by the Centre. For
States unable to cough up their co-share, the funding from the Centre was correspondingly
curtailed. The new freedom given to States will carry a review every two years. If this is
really carried out, and I can scarcely believe that it has actually been announced, it will be a
new dawn for federalism. And perhaps a new dawn for outcomes as well.
Decentralised stocking
The second, tucked away in para 56, is a Rs. 5000 crore funding provision through
NABARD for the construction of godowns, which can also be accessed by panchayats,
where farmers can store their produce. This is a first move towards providing for
institutionally decentralised stocking of produce, recognised worldwide as the fundamental
requirement for ensuring food security in any country. Also for the first time, it recognises
the role that panchayats were supposed to play, as partners in the execution of national
policy.
On the macroeconomic stance, I have to say that the triumphant achievement of a fiscal
deficit of 5.2 per cent for 2012-13, and the budgeted target of 4.8 per cent for 2013-14, took
me quite by surprise. I have not examined the figures closely, so I do not know whether
some subsidy payments for the current year have got deferred to the next fiscal year. The
structure of direct and indirect taxation for 2013-14 remains largely unaltered. The revenue
addition from the new measures, like the surcharges on high income earners, and enhanced
levies on luxury consumption, are quantified at Rs. 18,000 crore. Since Rs. 9000 crore is
being set aside upfront for States claiming compensation for the withdrawal of the Central
Sales Tax in the move towards a nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST), the net revenue
gain is a mere Rs. 9000 crore. So unless there is a very optimistic tax buoyancy assumption
underlying the revenue projections for next year, or expectation of large receipts from
disinvestment, it is unclear how the projected expenditure increase can actually be financed
while at the same time reducing the overall deficit.
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On a more positive note, considerable thought has gone into getting investment back on
track, with a particular focus on infrastructure investment. There are a number of
infrastructure finance facilitation measures, listed in para 56, tax incentives for private
investment in plant and machinery, and specific institutional measures to handle road project
bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles. There are plans for new industrial corridors, ports and
inland waterway grids. There is recognition of the need to expand domestic production of
coal to ease the thermal power generation bottleneck, and to review the vexed issue of
natural gas pricing. The only issue which has been glossed over is the revealed reluctance of
State governments to participate in the restructuring scheme for power distribution
companies (DISCOMS). Until this is resolved and the power supply bottleneck
correspondingly eased, small and medium enterprises in the country simply cannot take off.
Food inflation is acknowledged as a major unsolved problem, with a promise to ease supply
side bottlenecks. The continued raising of the minimum support price for foodgrain is
mentioned in para 41 as the policy instrument through which foodgrain production has been
increased. In reality, it has served to exacerbate foodgrain inflation, even while foodgrain
production has increased. By artificially raising the profitability of producing foodgrains, it
prevented the crop diversification that would otherwise have automatically happened in
response to the rising prices for non-foodgrain crops. So it has led to food inflation all round.
The Rs. 500 crore now being provided to promote crop diversification in the original Green
Revolution States could have been saved, and the objective achieved more elegantly, by not
interfering as much with the market mechanism. And of course, there would have been
commensurate saving on the food subsidy, had food inflation been lower, which it could
easily have been.
Milk inflation in particular has had a devastating impact on child and maternal nutrition, but
the promise in para 53 that feed and fodder availability will be increased is not spelled out in
any detail. Last November, the mass burning of harvest residue after the mechanised
harvesting of the kharif crop in Punjab and Haryana cast a month-long smoke pall which
covered Delhi, and caused widespread respiratory distress. Economists at the Indian
Statistical Institute have identified mechanisation alternatives which can preserve crop
residue for use as fodder. A targeted subsidy on these machines would be fully justified by
the resulting reduction in both air pollution and fodder prices, and milk prices further down
the line.
Finally, on expenditure priorities. There are a number of commendable initiatives to improve
the condition of women and children. The Nirbhaya Fund of Rs 1000 crore for safety of
women is certainly welcome, although everything depends on how it will be deployed. The
basic requirement is for better provision of public goods like street lighting, and that calls for
funding at municipal level. A scheme for maternal and child malnutrition for the 100 poorest
districts, with an allocation of Rs. 300 crore, comes not a moment too soon, although again
implementation details are not spelled out. Unless the existing anganwadi infrastructure of
the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) is used, most of the provision will go into
new infrastructure rather than to delivery of nutrition. The ICDS itself is commended in the
budget speech for having spent all of its allocation of Rs. 15, 850 crore in 2012-13, and I
suppose that is one possible indicator of the success of the scheme. However, in this as in all
other schemes, there is no publicly stated commitment to examining the structure of it,
whereby a path to achieving better nutritional outcomes could be meaningfully charted. In
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these fiscally challenged times, the imperative need is to squeeze better outcomes by
restructuring the institutional processes of social sector spending.
Addressing skill deficit
There is considerable emphasis on addressing the skill deficit in the Indian economy, with
the various schemes from which funding will be sourced clearly spelled out, and an
additional provision of Rs. 1000 crore as an incentive for candidates achieving successful
certification. These initiatives are certainly welcome. But they remain patchwork responses
to an underlying failure to match skill production to skill requirements, even of publicly
funded schemes. For instance, the National Health Mission, which now combines rural and
urban sectors, is getting an increase of 24 per cent in its budgetary allocation, to Rs. 21,239
crore. But as anyone familiar with the programme knows, its critical limitation has been the
failure to find medical personnel at any level to staff it. Skill development carries lead times
and gestation periods, and the Planning Commission simply has not done its homework on
manpower projections as it should have.
(Indira Rajaraman is a member of the Central Board of the Reserve Bank of India, and was
a member of the Thirteenth Finance Commission)
indira_raja@yahoo.com
The Union Budget 2013-14 has a number of good specifics to get investment going again,
but the constituents of the headline numbers on fiscal correction are unclear
Social sector pays the price
If there was any expectation that the combination of an economic crisis and an election year
would alter the government’s priorities, the Finance Minister was quick to dismiss it. Early
in his Budget speech, he made it clear that “we must unhesitatingly embrace growth as the
highest goal … without growth there will be neither development nor inclusiveness.” He
went on to put the numbers to back this contention, with the fiscal deficit being kept closer to
target levels than many thought would be possible. This commitment to growth at all costs
demanded a price in terms of providing less than what is needed for the social sector. And
the way Mr. Chidambaram has paid this price suggests the Congress party will be going into
an election year without the resources that the government had in 2009.
Frozen on MGNREGS
The first step in this strategy has been to gloss over those parts of the social sector where
there is no real increase in allocations. The most striking example is that of the Mahatma
Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which acted as the
main vehicle of the Congress’s electoral fortunes the last time round. Mr. Chidambaram has
kept the allocation for this activity frozen at the level set in the last Budget. He has spoken of
this as an increase by comparing it to the Revised Estimates for the current year rather than
the Budget Estimates. But the fact that the revised estimates for MGNREGS was 11 per cent
less than the budgeted figure only suggests that the decision not to make this scheme the
leading light of the next election campaign has already been taken.
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With poor growth restricting the resources available for an electorally rewarding boost to the
social sector, the emphasis would have to be on more sharply focused social sector
expenditure. And the broad contours that this approach could take are evident in the budget
documents. At the heart of this approach is the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) or the direct
cash transfers to beneficiaries identified using the Unique Identification Authority of India
(UIDAI). In a year when MGNREGS has been frozen at the level of the previous budget, the
allocation for UIDAI has been raised by 40 per cent over the current year’s Budget Estimates
and 65 per cent over the year’s Revised Estimates, to reach Rs.1,819 crore.
There does seem to be some recognition, though, of the need to hasten slowly on this front.
The budget figures do not suggest any move to expand cash transfers rapidly into new areas.
The cash transfers are supposed to reduce subsidies by preventing leakages. But the budget
documents do not suggest any reduction in the major subsidies. On the contrary, while the
fertilizer subsidy is budgeted to be kept at around the Revised Estimate for the current year,
the budget estimates the food subsidy to go up to Rs.90,000 crore, up from Rs.85,000 crore
in the Revised Estimates for the current year and Rs.75,000 crore in the Budget presented
last year. Thus when Mr. Chidambaram assured the House in his speech “that the DBT
scheme will be rolled out throughout the country during the term of the UPA Government,”
he was apparently referring to the spread of only the schemes that are currently covered in
the various pilot projects of the DBT or a few other similar ones.
Focus on women, children
Having decided to focus on a relatively narrow base of schemes that are compatible with
cash transfers the budget also reveals a clear focus on women and children. In listing the
three faces that he saw as representing the country the Finance Minister began with women
and youth before going on to the DBT related poor. It is then no surprise that the budget has
substantially increased allocations to schemes that allow for direct cash transfers to women
and young Indians. The Indira Gandhi Matritva Sahyog Yojana (IGMSY) that envisages
providing cash assistance directly to pregnant and lactating women has seen its Budget
allocation for the coming year going up to almost five times the Revised Estimate for the
current year. Similarly, the allocation for pre-matric scholarships for Other Backward
Classes has been trebled from the Budget and Revised estimates for the current year. The
allocation for post-matric scholarships for the same category has also gone up by 44 per cent
to reach Rs.810 crore.
Food Bill
This focus on cash transfer related social sector spending does not rule out expenditure on
other more traditional electorally rewarding social sector activities. The offer of food at low
prices has been a staple of Indian politics in several States. The proposed Food Security Bill
is designed to take this benefit to the national stage. By making an allocation for the
incremental costs of the food subsidy after the Food Security Bill becomes a law the Finance
Minister has sought to confirm his party’s commitment to this cause. But the less-thanadequate allocation of Rs.10,000 crore suggests that Mr. Chidambaram only expects the
Food Security mechanism to come into play for a relatively small part of the year; perhaps
just long enough for it to have a political benefit.
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With the size of the allocation for the implementation of the Food Security Bill being small
enough to create doubts about when, and even if, the Bill will come into effect, the main
social sector take-away from the Budget would remain its clear focus on the cash transfer
related schemes. The slow growth rate and the government’s prioritisation of growth over
welfare may have constrained the resources for the social sector. But in the distribution of
those limited resources, the Finance Minister has made it clear that the electorally rewarding
schemes come first.
(Prof. Narendar Pani is with the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.)
The focus in this pre-election budget has shifted from the flagship MGNREGS to cash
transfer-related schemes
The path to fiscal sustainability
Many different words have been used to describe this budget — “reasonable,” “responsible,”
“sound,” “did no harm.” The words that have not been used are “reformist” or “big bang.” I
would call it a “conventional budget,” by which I mean what one had begun to expect once
the reforms of the 1990s were over. Its main distinguishing feature is the determination to
hold to fiscal deficit fixed in the budget and outlined in the long term policy stance. This is a
welcome and necessary departure from the budgets since 2009-10. For the rest, it was the
usual socio-political document, with a number of expenditure allocations to different groups
to reassure them of its inclusive nature, and incremental measures to correct small anomalies
in infrastructure sectors, presumed to be the central propeller of government planned
development programmes.
Some expected a growth-oriented budget and others feared a populist budget. Neither the
expectations nor the fears came true. Though the Finance Minister opened with a statement
on the importance of economic growth for generating jobs, inclusive growth and revenues
which could be used to help the poor, there was no headline making reform that could
enthuse the stock markets or the domestic industrial community. Measures to incentivise
investment, savings, infrastructure, bond markets were neither much better nor much worse
than those seen in earlier budgets. Similarly, there were a number of expenditures and
increases in the same, directed at the welfare of various groups, at food security and
malnutrition, education and skill development, agriculture, textile workers and small
industry. Personally, the budget achieved the professed objective of the Finance Minister to
contain the fiscal deficit to 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2012-13 and to reduce it to 4.8 per cent of
GDP in 2013-14. Though the growth assumption on which this was based is optimistic, my
view is that this Finance Minister is very serious about the objective and will therefore
ensure that it is achieved. This is an important step in restoring fiscal sustainability and
macroeconomic balance, some of the most disturbing symbols of which are the current
account deficit of 4.2 per cent of GDP during the last two years and the high rate of
consumer price inflation.
For a ‘macro-pivot’
Why is this so important? In a paper in 2012 I showed how many growth stars became
shooting stars because they were not able to deal with macroeconomic shocks emanating
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inside and outside their country. Thus it is essential to deal with this issue if we want to
restore growth to a reasonable level and sustain it for the next few decades. Further, my
analysis of the macroeconomic situation in India, suggests that the best way to remove the
cyclical downturn in the Indian economy is a “macro-pivot,” which rebalances the fiscal and
monetary policy, by tightening the former and loosening the latter. Again this is based on
research which showed that in economies showing similar symptoms of macro imbalance as
us, such a pivot led to an increase in the average growth rate in one to three succeeding
years. Further the evidence is very clear when the fiscal tightening was the result of
expenditure reduction but mixed or non-existent when it was the outcome of a tax increase.
The Finance Minister has accomplished this reduction in the fiscal deficit by correctly
focusing on the reduction of subsidies, which were the cause of the unsustainable rise in the
fiscal deficit. Further he has achieved it without cutting capital expenditure (government
investment). In fact capital expenditures are budgeted to increase by 27 per cent in 2013-14.
There is however, one trend that has not been reversed, which needs to be, to put the fiscal
deficit on a sustainable trend. Revenue expenditures net of subsidies, are projected to
increase at an even faster rate than the increase in GDP. Thus the ratio of these expenditures
to GDP is likely to increase significantly.
He has also mentioned a number of pending Bills, such as the Direct Taxes Code Bill, Goods
and Services Tax, Pensions and Insurance, that will help improve the investment climate. If
his expectation/hope about these Bills in the budget fructify, then enough momentum will be
generated to return to a growth rate of over six per cent in 2013-14. If these and other
administrative and procedural reforms, such as the setting up of an effective ‘Road
Regulatory Authority,” that have been talked about do not come through, then growth is
likely to be around six per cent (+/- 0.5 per cent).
(Dr. Arvind Virmani is a former Chief Economic Advisor to the Ministry of Finance,
Government of India.)
The sum of small bangs
Buffeted by strong headwinds blowing from several directions, Finance Minister P.
Chidambaram has had very little room for major new initiatives or ideas while fashioning the
Union budget for 2013-14. The exaggerated expectations of many investors — especially
those from abroad — could probably never have been met, certainly not at a time when the
economy is threatened with macroeconomic instability. And though this budget will be the
last full budget of the UPA government, the fact that the general elections are still more than
a year away means the Finance Minister has had to squarely balance the competing claims of
economics and politics. In the context of the fiscal deficit, the former suggested austerity
while the dictates of the latter indicated a loosening of purse strings. The ensuing balancing
act explains why there are no headline grabbing revenue or expenditure measures in the
budget.
In the event, the budget’s estimate of Plan expenditure for 2013-14 at Rs.5,55,322 crore out
of a total expenditure of Rs.16,65,297 crore is 29.4 per cent more than the revised estimate
for the current year. Apart from providing sufficient funds for all flagship programmes, his
budget lays emphasis on welfare programmes targeted at the youth, Scheduled Castes and
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Tribes, minorities as well as women and children. The allocation to the Agriculture ministry
has been stepped up by nearly 22 per cent of the revised estimate of the current year. The
target for agricultural credit has been set at Rs.700,000 crore, sharply higher than the target
of Rs.575,000 crore for the current year. The Rs.10,000 crore set aside for implementing the
provisions of the proposed National Food Security Bill seems inadequate but this is said to
be over and above the normal provision of food subsidy and may also indicate a rollout
towards the end of the fiscal year.
With supply-side bottlenecks contributing to the economic slowdown, the budget wisely
gives centre stage billing to infrastructure development. A number of institutions will be
permitted to raise tax free bonds, up to a total sum of Rs.50,000 crore. Welcome as these and
other initiatives are, infrastructure development requires concerted government action and a
review of the implementation models, especially public-private partnerships, on which so
much faith is reposed. A company investing Rs.100 crore or more in plant and machinery
during the next two years will be entitled to deduct an investment allowance of 15 per cent of
investment in addition to the current rates of depreciation. This is the only important tax
measure in the budget aimed at reviving manufacturing which has been in the doldrums.
Specific steps in the budget to incentivise household savings include a re-launch of the failed
Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme for first-time investors and inflation-indexed
instruments. In the past, variable interest savings instruments have not taken off partly due to
lack of clarity on the benchmarks. The move to provide home loan borrowers with an
additional one lakh rupees deduction from interest subject to certain conditions is promising
but greater clarity about its applicability are needed. The financial sector has received a fair
share of attention. Public sector banks will be provided sufficient funds to meet the evolving
regulatory capital requirements. Comprehensive changes in the rules relating to registration
of foreign portfolio investors and other classes of overseas investors are proposed. The
ambiguity that exists in defining foreign institutional investment and foreign direct
investment is being removed. Foreign institutional investors are being allowed entry in the
exchange traded currency derivative segments. These moves underline the importance of
foreign capital in the current economic scenario.
Personal taxation has been left largely untouched, though taxpayers in the first bracket of
Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.5 lakhs will get a tax credit of Rs.2000. There is disappointment that the
limit for eligible deductions under section 80 C of the Income Tax Act has not been raised.
The proposed surcharge on “super-rich” taxpayers — defined as those having a taxable
income of one crore rupees or more — is a symbolic rather than a revenue gathering
measure. With only 42,800 individuals falling in this category, the fiscal impact will be
minimal. In the end, this budget will be evaluated on how far it meets the criteria set by the
Finance Minister himself. These include (a) containing the fiscal deficit to within 5.3 per
cent of the GDP, (b) dealing with the burgeoning current account deficit, and (c) reviving the
growth process. The fiscal deficit has been brought down to 5.2 and is slated to go down to
4.8 per cent next year. But the government’s primary deficit — the amount by which total
expenditure, excluding interest repayments, exceeds total revenue — will still be high at 1.5
per cent. On tackling the CAD the budget offers little direct help. Even the expected
measures to rein in gold imports are absent. Of course export promotion and a revival in
manufacturing will aid the balance of payments. But will the budget spur growth? The
danger is that growth prospects may get squeezed at both the supply and demand ends. Mr.
Chidambaram has compressed demand, preferring to propitiate animal spirits rather than
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human ones, but not enough to enthuse the corporate sector. The investors whose appetites
were whetted by Mr. Chidambaram’s early actions as Finance Minister last year are visibly
upset at the absence of a big ‘reform’ bang. If indeed the economy has “bottomed out,” the
budget still has enough small bangs to bring some buoyancy. If not, the much anticipated
revival may well prove elusive.
An opportunity missed
“The purpose of a Budget – and the job of a Finance Minister,” P. Chidambaram declared in
his speech, “is to create the economic space and find the resources to achieve the socio
economic objectives.” Now that the presentation of and the spate of initial responses to the
budget are behind us, it may be appropriate to ask how far the Minister went in
accomplishing his self-defined task.
Mr. Chidambaram was handed the management of the nation’s fisc at a time when growth
was slowing, inflation high and the current account deficit widening ominously. Reversing
the slowdown required an expansion in expenditure. And this needed to be financed in ways
that took account of inflation and the widening external deficit. Since, for right or wrong
reasons, Mr. Chidambaram is also with those who believe that the fiscal deficit needs
trimming, the requirement was a large dose of additional resource mobilisation. Fortunately,
additional taxation was not just needed, but also possible. As the Finance Minister noted, at
around 10 per cent of GDP, the tax to GDP ratio was “one of the lowest for any large
developing country” and well below the 2007-08 peak of 11.9 per cent. So ‘reclaiming that
peak’ was the obvious short-term objective.
Ten per cent surcharge
However, Mr. Chidambaram does not seem to have stretched himself to do that. In terms of
taxation the only noteworthy initiative was the imposition of a 10 per cent surcharge on
individuals and corporations with taxable incomes exceeding Rs. 1 crore. Given the large
number of concessions and exemptions available, the number of tax-paying entities falling in
this range is small. The Minister himself provides a figure of a paltry 42,800 individuals who
qualify. They were, thus far, being taxed at 30.90 per cent on their taxable incomes in excess
of Rs. 10,00,000. Now, they would pay the new marginal rate of just 33.99 per cent only on
that part of their income that exceeds more than 10 times this sum. The effect on revenues
cannot be substantial. Not surprisingly, despite the Finance Minister’s optimistic projections
on tax buoyancy, the tax to GDP ratio is expected to rise by just half a percentage point in
2013-14. The task of finding resources has not been pursued seriously.
If tax revenues are not slated to rise enough, non-tax receipts or expenditure cuts must ensure
deficit reduction. Mr. Chidambaram has relied heavily on both. “Miscellaneous” capital
receipts from measures such as disinvestment or the sale of spectrum are projected at Rs.
55,814 crore in 2013-14, as compared to a revised figure of Rs. 24,000 crore for 2012-13 and
a budgeted figure of Rs. 30,000 crore for last year. The state of the markets and the recent
experience with spectrum sale suggest this projection would be difficult to realise even if the
best assets are put up for sale.
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But even after incorporating these uncertain receipts, the budget has had to rein in
expenditures to meet its deficit target. In a year (2013-14) when GDP is projected to grow by
13.4 per cent, total expenditure is expected to rise by only 11.7 per cent budget-to-budget.
This implies a lower expenditure to GDP ratio and a reduced fiscal stimulus. As a result,
despite the election due around a year from now, the so-called “flagship” schemes of the
UPA have not been favoured with larger allocations. Allocations for the MGNREGS, for
example, are budgeted at Rs. 33,000 crore in 2013-14, which is the same as budgeted in
2012-13 and marginally above the Rs. 29,387 crore actually spent that year. In addition,
expenditure reduction is being realised largely through curbs on food and fertilizer subsidies
and a steep reduction in the petroleum subsidy from Rs. 96,880 crore to Rs. 65,000 crore.
The latter would feed into the costs of a range of products and aggravate inflation.
Finally, there has been little attention paid to balance of payments correction. One item that
has contributed to the widening trade and current account deficit is the import of gold.
Increasing further the duty on gold imports was the way to go, since there is no justification
whatsoever for a small minority to use the nation’s foreign exchange resources to purchase
the yellow metal whether as ornament or investment. Instead, the Finance Minister has
chosen to send out a signal encouraging the import of gold by raising the duty-free limit for
import of jewellery through the baggage route.
Put together, these indications from the budget suggest that the Finance Minister had either
not given thought to or ignored the tasks that circumstances had set for him. All he managed
to do was juggle his numbers to show off a lower fiscal deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2013-14.
That will please no one. However, there are a considerable number who would resent being
harmed by the effect that the budget would have on livelihoods and real earnings. This being
the last full budget of UPA II before the next general elections, effective measures aimed at
showing concern for those who are chronically poor and distressed were a necessity. Yet the
Finance Minister failed to accomplish the tasks he had implicitly set himself.
The budget speech seems to provide one hint of what could be influencing the government’s
inexplicable policy drift. The Finance Minister has explained why the current account deficit
(CAD) is a cause for worry as follows: “This year, and perhaps next year too, we have to
find over USD 75 billion to finance the CAD. There are only three ways before us: FDI, FII
or External Commercial Borrowing. That is why I have been at pains to state over and over
again that India, at the present juncture, does not have the choice between welcoming and
spurning foreign investment. If I may be frank, foreign investment is an imperative.”
Two demands
Even a cursory survey of the views expressed by representatives of foreign direct and
portfolio investors makes clear that there are two demands they consistently make of the
countries they target. The first is that the government should display fiscal prudence in the
form of a small fiscal deficit and limited public borrowing. The second is that there must be a
continuous stream of “reform” announcements that liberalise the terms of entry and
operation of foreign private capital. In recent times the government fearing an exit of capital
launched on a new round of reform showcased by the decision to permit FDI in multi-brand
retail. However, the fiscal deficit has been high by the standards set by foreign observers.
The Finance Minister may be operating on the presumption or may have received a signal
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that if foreign capital inflows to finance the CAD have to be found, the fiscal deficit has to
be controlled.
However, this argument does not explain why taxation cannot be resorted to in order to
mobilise resources that can both curb the deficit and finance additional expenditures. Nor
does it make sense to find ways of attracting foreign capital at the expense of all else if the
fundamental problem of a high external deficit remains unresolved.
Fiscal adjustment
This suggests that besides the demands of foreign interests, the government’s own
unthinking adherence to a kind of fiscal conservatism has driven the Finance Minister and
his government to failure. Measures like the deregulation of petro-product pricing, the
increasing resort to cost-plus pricing of power mediated by a tariff authority, and the
introduction of a dynamic fuel price adjustment component into setting of freight rates of the
railways had made clear that the focus of policy was on fiscal adjustment through a reduction
in expenditures led by a cut in subsidies. This thrust was only corroborated by the Economic
Survey, which stated that while the reason for India’s growth recovery after the global crisis
was the stimulus provided by the government, the downturn was the result of a tight
monetary policy adopted in response to the inflationary environment the stimulus created.
Since higher taxation is seen as disincentivising savings and investment and deficit spending
as aggravating inflation, the argument possibly is that the onus of triggering another recovery
is now on the central bank, which needs to shift to an easy monetary policy. That may justify
the decision to abjure another fiscal stimulus. But the idea may be difficult to sell to the
voter.
(The writer is Professor of Economics, Jawaharlal Nehru University)
Besides the demands of foreign interests, the government’s own unthinking adherence to a
kind of fiscal conservatism has driven the Finance Minister to failure
Short-term gloom, long-term doom
While presenting the last Budget before the 2014 election, the Finance Minister claimed that
there was no room for gloom and pessimism. The months preceding the Budget witnessed a
sharp reduction in industrial growth and confidence in India as an investment destination.
Notwithstanding the kind words of British Prime Minister David Cameron, the cruel truth
was that nobody believed the India growth story any more. It would be no exaggeration to
say that there is more infrastructure development in China in one month than what happens
in India in one year.
The Railway and Union Budgets for 2013-14 have demonstrated that this government is
unwilling to take hard decisions and prefers to continue on the easy, populist track.
The two questions that need to be answered are: does the Budget have anything that will
attract much needed foreign direct investment? Has the Budget done anything that will
encourage Indian entrepreneurs to set up large industries that alone will generate
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employment? Sadly, their answers are in the negative. Thus, there is thus gloom for 2013-14
and, if the present trend continues, doom in the long term.
Domestic investment
In the background of last year’s disastrous budget, the Finance Minister had a golden
opportunity of sending the right signals to foreign and domestic investors. Unfortunately,
there is nothing in this Budget that will attract much needed large foreign investments. There
is no clarification or assurance that our tax laws will remain stable, investor-friendly and not
be amended retrospectively just to overrule a decision in favour of the assessee. On the other
hand, certain unnecessary amendments will now give room to the department to question tax
benefits not only to investments via the Mauritius route but from other countries as well.
Barring a special deduction on new industries where the asset value exceeds Rs.100 crore,
there is nothing to encourage domestic investment in the manufacturing sector.
The uncertainty on goods and services tax (GST) continues and there is minor tinkering with
indirect taxes. There is not a word about the effect of the overlapping of service tax and VAT
that often leads to double taxation.
The most astonishing proposal in this hour of crisis is the proposal to set up a “Tax
Administration Reform Commission to review application of tax policies and tax laws.” Do
we require another commission to tell the Finance Minister what to do? The only purpose it
can serve is that any difficult or inconvenient decision can now be indefinitely postponed by
referring it to this commission.
At the end of the day, there is nothing to indicate any change in India’s unfriendly tax
landscape.
Like god, the devil is in the details. Paragraph 11 of the Budget speech, which deals with
current account deficit (CAD), is perhaps the most important part of the Budget. The CAD,
according to the Finance Minister, has arisen mainly “on account of excessive dependence
on oil imports, high value of coal imports, our passion for gold and the slow down in
exports.” He cautions that the country would require $75 billion this year, and perhaps next
year, to finance this deficit which can be done only in three ways: (i) foreign direct
investments (FDI), (ii) foreign institutional investments (FII) and (iii) external commercial
borrowing. We thus require Rs.4,00,000 crore per year or Rs.35,000 crore per month to
bridge the CAD. Sadly, with no major incentive to attract either FDI or FII, the government
will have to inevitably depend on external commercial borrowings, which will only further
fuel the expenditure on interest.
Government expenditure
The major failure of this Budget is the refusal to check the runaway increase in government
expenditure. Despite the acknowledged fact that The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural
Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) has been a disaster, the Finance Minister has not
reduced the allocation to this wasteful project. Around two lakh crore has now been spent on
this flagship scheme but there is hardly any community asset to show in return. The same
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amount spent on roads, the railways and other infrastructure would have transformed the face
of India over the last eight years.
On the other hand, there is an allocation of Rs.10,000 crore to the Food Security Bill, a
project that will most certainly destroy the nation’s financial security. This shows that the
Central government will continue to indulge in populist schemes regardless of their financial
consequences. It is unwise to be happy with a fiscal deficit that is less than six per cent. What
is worrisome is that no attempt has been made to stop or reduce this haemorrhaging of the
economy. And the States are not far behind in ever-increasing expenditure on free power,
rice at Re.1 per kg and so on. The nation will slowly but surely spend itself to bankruptcy.
Abraham Lincoln: remarked: “If we could first know where we are and whither we are
going, we could better judge what to do and how to do it.” The tragedy is that we know
where we are and what we ought to do but year after year after year we choose to be on an
endless vacation from reality. The Finance Minister ended his speech with this brilliant
quotation from Swami Vivekananda:
“All the strength and succour you want is within yourself.
Therefore make your own future.”
If we fail to provide the right investment climate and continue the path of fiscal profligacy,
India will soon have neither the strength nor the succour to make any kind of future.
(Arvind P. Datar is a senior advocate of the Madras High Court.)
The Railway and Union Budgets for 2013-14 have shown that this government is
unwilling to take hard decisions
Celestial fireball
The 2012 DA14 asteroid tracked in advance did not harm us; it skimmed past nearly 27,600
km from the Earth on February 15. But the same day, a meteor, unconnected with 2012
DA14, came out of the blue and exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia at 9.25 am local time
injuring more than a thousand people. It has many firsts to its credit. The 55-foot meteor
weighed about 10,000 tonnes before it entered Earth’s atmosphere. It is the largest known
celestial object to strike Earth more than a century after the one that came crashing down
over the Tunguska River in Siberia in 1908. The Chelyabinsk meteor had a speed of only 18
km per second, far less than the April 22, 2012 Sutter’s Mill record speed of 28.6 km per
second. Once the Russian meteor entered the atmosphere, a combination of pressure and heat
caused it to break apart 19-24 kilometres above the earth producing a fireball that blazed
across the sky. According to the Russian Geographic Society, the bright flare was more than
2,500 degree C. The disintegration took place 32.5 seconds after it entered the atmosphere,
and released an estimated energy of nearly 500 kilotons, NASA notes. The shockwaves
caused by the explosion shattered glass and damaged many buildings. The infrasound
produced by the meteor was the strongest ever detected by the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty Organisation (CTBT) sensors.
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Based on video footage, researchers have already reconstructed the meteor’s orbit and class.
According to the February 22 results posted on arXiv, only “a relatively small number” of
meteors’ orbits have ever been reconstructed. Results suggest the meteor belongs to the
common Apollo family of near-earth asteroids from the belt between Mars and Jupiter.
Meteors come crashing into the atmosphere very often, but only a few strike our planet. Yet,
the compulsion to spot dangerous ones hurtling towards Earth cannot be overemphasised.
However, even under the best of conditions, the faint Russian meteor coming in the morning
from the east would have been visible at best just two hours before it struck, notes NASA.
Aside from their damage potential, it must be remembered that meteorites have great
scientific value; they provide invaluable information about the Solar System’s early history.
The three meteorite pieces of Sutter’s Mill carbonaceous chondrites recovered within two
days of its disintegration provided “a rare glimpse ... of reactive and organic compounds that
may be present at the surface of asteroids,” a December 2012 paper in Science notes. Though
the meteorite’s pieces are ordinary chondrites with a stony composition, their immediate
recovery before possible contamination can spring a surprise or two about the heavenly
fireball’s properties.
Invisible and voiceless
While we are still talking about women, let us spare a thought for those who do not appear
on the pages of our newspapers or on television channels; women who seem invisible even
when the subject under discussion relates directly to them.
The monsoon was deficient in many parts of the country last year. As a result, the first
reports of drought setting in have already begun to be reported. In Maharashtra, 16 districts
have already been declared drought-affected impacting an estimated 12,000 villages. Crops
have withered, water is difficult to find and the summer has not even begun. You hear stories
of indebtedness and suicide once again. The state government has already predicted that this
will be the worst drought since 1972, one that many people would have forgotten but not
those who till the land and know the price it extracted from them.
The face of the farmer afflicted by this drying up of land is almost always that of a man.
Forgotten most of the time is the fact that the bulk of work done on farms across India is by
women. Just statistics never tell the full story but the fact remains that while 79 per cent of
rural women are agricultural workers, fewer rural men, 63 per cent, work on land. Despite
this reality, where the bulk of the workers on land are women, only nine per cent of women
own agricultural land. The untold story of Indian agriculture is not just one of
mismanagement — of water and other resources — but also of the refusal to acknowledge
women’s contribution to agriculture. Despite numerous studies that have established beyond
doubt that the bulk of the work to produce the food that all of us consume is done by women,
they are still not recognised as farmers in our official agricultural policies. As a result,
whenever the government announces schemes for farmers, the women who are actually
doing the work are left out of it.
A telling example of this is the dairy industry. According to some estimates, 93 per cent of
dairy products are attributed to the work of women. Something like 15 million women are
involved in the dairy industry. They tend the cattle, collect fodder, collect and deliver the
dairy products for further processing. Yet, few of them actually own cattle or land. As a
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result, the men and not the women who do the work usually take the benefits extended by the
government to dairy farmers.
The majority of agricultural assets — land, machinery, money and credit — remains firmly
in the hands of men. The irony is that despite several policies, where women are supposed to
be joint holders with the men of land, or even sole owners, many women are not even aware
that they own the land. No one, least of all the men, have bothered to inform them.
Why is any of this important, we can well ask. After all, these are agricultural families where
everyone works. What does it matter if women work longer hours than the men? Why is it so
important for them to be owners of the land they till? If the men own the land, does that not
automatically mean they too are the owners?
There are numerous reasons that can be given for why women should be acknowledged as
principal workers on land, and they should be the owners of that land. The chief reason is
that, in the patriarchal culture that continues untouched in this country, a woman without an
economic standing stands little chance of asserting her rights not just as a woman but as a
human being. Of course, even women with independent economic means are not necessarily
respected or heeded. But they have a greater chance to make choices than those who are
forced into dependence and as a corollary to that, subservience.
Much of the violence that we do not read about, because it takes place away from the
location of our media houses, is rooted in this powerlessness of the women. Every now and
then a horrific story will catch our attention. But for every one such story, there are
thousands that go unreported because the women at the receiving end do not count — not
even in government records. In rural areas, almost half of all rape cases are related to land. In
some parts of India, to ensure that women do not get their share of the land, they are declared
witches. In others, even where they are entitled, they are forced to sign away their share.
At a time when the airwaves are full of talk about the budget and financial allocations, all
those who are concerned about violence against women ought to look at policies towards
farmers — and whether any of them address the women who do farm work. Let us begin by
accepting that women are farmers, that they should get the benefits extended to all farmers
and that it is pointless talking about ending violence against women without seeing and
recognising women’s work and contribution to agriculture.
Police reforms Kashmiris can do without
While much of the country is focused on the budget and its implications for the economy and
individual pocketbooks, Kashmir is focused, with much trepidation, on a draft police reform
bill. This in itself gives one a sense of the disconnect that exists between Kashmir and the
rest of the country. Why a proposed reform measure causes anger in Kashmir while the rest
of the country thirsts for reforms is an interesting question. Digging deeper into this episode
will, I hope, promote greater understanding of the difficulties facing Kashmiris. It may also
help provide a partial explanation of why Kashmir and its restless youth remain in a state of
hopelessness while the rest of the country is dreaming of an impending demographic
dividend.
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Model Act
Let’s get to the controversy. The proposed Jammu and Kashmir Police Reform Bill, 2013
has its origins in the Supreme Court’s 2006 verdict on a PIL filed by two former DirectorsGeneral of Police. To comply with the Supreme Court’s order, States have prepared new
legislation. A template provided by the Model Police Act of 2006, drafted by a panel led by
Soli Sorabjee, forms the basis of police reforms in States. The drafting of the Model Act was
partly prompted by the Prime Minister’s concern expressed at the conference of District
Superintendents of Police in early 2005 that “we need to ensure that police forces at all
levels, and even more so at the grassroots, change from a feudal force to a democratic
service.”
A careful review of the proposed Jammu and Kashmir bill reveals that those in charge of
drafting it have largely followed the Model Police Act as well as the Kerala Police Act
(2011). In fact, some of the bill’s provisions that have been ridiculed in the local media (e.g.,
imprisonment or fine for cleaning furniture in public) are there in both the Model Act and the
Kerala bill. Also, some objectionable aspects related to internal security included in the J&K
bill are also present in the Model and Kerala Acts.
Given this background, reasonable questions arise: If the J&K government is replicating the
process followed in the rest of the country, including a relatively progressive State such as
Kerala, why the howls of protest in Kashmir? If after more than two decades of turmoil,
during which police and paramilitary forces gained unprecedented powers, why would
Kashmiris baulk at proposed police reforms? Why the “manufactured outrage,” as Chief
Minister Omar Abdullah put it?
There are two key reasons for this latest angst in Kashmir. First, some provisions of the J&K
bill as well as the Model Act (and the Kerala Bill) are indeed incompatible with the Prime
Minister’s ideal of a “democratic service” and Kashmiris believe such provisions may be
disproportionately applied to them. Second, in a few key areas, the J&K bill either includes
unacceptable provisions or omits reasonable safeguards compared to what is going on in the
rest of the country. I will address these two issues in turn.
To an observer outside Jammu and Kashmir, all this outrage may seem like a lot of drama.
After all, even if the proposed bill falls short of the Prime Minister’s ideals, it does so for the
entire country because the Model Act is the guide for police reforms. So what is special
about Kashmir? There is something special about it, and not in a good way. For more than 20
years, Kashmir and parts of Jammu have suffered from enormous hardship. Democratic
service yielded to a security imperative. Military and paramilitary forces and the police
became instruments of controlling a restive population. An environment of deep mistrust
developed and people generally became wary of state authority. The police became the most
visible organ of the state. In Kashmir, the use of force to contain the population became a
natural option whereas in much of the country a lathi-charge could provoke accusations of
police brutality. Therefore, from a Kashmiri perspective, Keralites can safely ignore some
uncivilised elements of their police bill but Kashmiris cannot afford to do that. This
conditioning is by no means manufactured. It is what it is — a raw mistrust of authority and
a deep sense of self preservation.
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Areas of concern
Beyond this deep-rooted mistrust of state institutions, there are substantive and, in my view,
unacceptable provisions in the proposed bill. I will mention just two areas by way of
illustrating how those in power are inclined to retain it in J&K.
Village Defence Committees (VDCs) and Special Police Officers (SPOs) : As in the case of
the Model Act, the J&K Bill proposes a role for VDCs and SPOs. However, these provisions
are not benign in J&K. During the years of turmoil, the government established many VDCs
and created a lot of SPO positions to counter the threat of militants. The VDCs and SPOs
became much disliked, somewhat out-of-control instruments of counter-insurgency
operations. This should have been expected since the type of training required for police
work was never imparted to people selected for these positions. Furthermore, VDCs and
SPOs became one more route by which arms have proliferated in the State. In my view, there
is sufficient police to deal with law and order problems in the State. If more policemen are
needed, the government must make adequate and institutional provisions for them and
expand the police force. VDCs and SPOs are not an acceptable alternative in their current
forms and run counter to the public interest.
Composition of the State Security Commission : Recommended under the Model Act, the
State Security Commission would, among other things, frame guidelines for the functioning
of the police service and monitor its performance. To ensure checks and balances in its
functioning, the Model Act and the Kerala Act include the Leader of the Opposition as a
member. The J&K Bill omits this reasonable provision. Furthermore, while the Model Act
proposes that a State’s Home Minister lead the Commission, the J&K bill proposes not only
that the CM act as Chairperson but also that the Home Minister or MoS Home be included as
a member. This creates a serious imbalance in the composition of the Commission.
Furthermore, the Model Act recommends that five independent members be included from
different walks of life based on the recommendations of a selection panel that would include
a retired Chief Justice of the High Court recommended by the current Chief Justice,
chairperson of the State Human Rights Commission or their designee and chairperson of the
State Public Service Commission or their designee. In the J&K bill, only three independent
members are envisioned and the government nominates them on the recommendation of a
government-appointed selection panel. Such a construct is nothing new in Kashmir. The
government has found ways to dilute or neuter all sorts of worthy sounding institutions.
There are many other aspects of the bill that will exacerbate the mistrust that Kashmiris hold
in their hearts for state institutions. Police reforms can go a long way in helping people
recover their lost dignity and develop trust in our institutions. It is important that we get
these reforms right, complementing our national experience with lessons from international
attempts at police reforms in conflict-affected areas.
(The author is a former World Bank officer currently working as a social and political
activist in Jammu and Kashmir)
While the people of Jammu & Kashmir have a deep-rooted mistrust of state institutions,
there are also substantive and unacceptable provisions in the proposed legislation
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Shoots, kills and trades in animal parts
Tiger stir-fry, good for health; tiger wine, supposedly with magical, forceful, Elysium-like
qualities. These are the dishonest myths peddled by a multimillion dollar poaching trade,
bolstered by consumers enjoying the lure of illegal wildlife contraband. Poaching of tigers,
so they can be fried, cut up, draped, and efficiently crushed into material that fills little
bottles and vials, is the primary and most outstanding reason for tiger mortality in India.
Discussing stockpiles
The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), the only treaty that
regulates international trade in wildlife, has banned any trade in tiger parts, either
domestically or internationally. The trade, so far, thus has been understood as illegal. But
here is the shocker: a new investigation in China by the United Kingdom-based
Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) has found that domestic trade in China in tiger
parts, for skins and tiger wine, is allowed, nurtured, and legalised . As per the report, vague
rules — deliberately kept vague — allow the use of stockpiles of tiger parts, from Chinese
captive bred tigers, for tiger wine and skins. This brings us to a central concern for Indian
wildlife: stockpiles of animal parts, whether it is tigers in China or Vietnam, or ivory from
African elephant range states, is the most imminent threat to Indian wild counterparts which
are poached. Stockpiles provide a smokescreen for illegally procured animals, they represent
domestic intent for trade; a currency so to speak, towards the idea that some of the most
endangered animals in the world are worth more dead than alive.
CITES has begun its 16th Conference of Parties (CoP16) in Bangkok, Thailand (March 314). The issue of stockpiles and their sale will come up again, but these international
negotiations, while otherwise useful, will be far from adequate to secure our wildlife. As
long as stockpiles exist, the only way for India to save its elephants, tigers (and other widely
poached animals) is to enforce domestic protection.
CITES classifies species under different Appendices, consequent to international threats
from poaching and rarity of the species. Elephants, both Asian and African, are on Appendix
1, with a ban on trade in ivory. Several African states allow trophy hunting and managementbased culling quotas for shooting elephants. There are thus tonnes of ivory in stockpiles in
several African countries. Consequently, several countries demand licences for the legal sale
of elephant ivory. In 2007, CITES allowed a one-off sale of ivory in government-held
stockpiles for Botswana, South Africa and Namibia. At CoP16, CITES will discuss the
workings of a “decision-making mechanism” for further sale of ivory. While this mechanism
will veer towards the use of the precautionary principle, at least on paper, the very creation
of such a mechanism implies future trade in ivory. This will remain a pulsating threat to wild
elephants in India and African countries. Consider the numbers: a new study shows that
11,000 elephants have been poached in Gabon since 2004; this year, poachers in Kenya
killed a family of 11 elephants. Last year, in what is perhaps a newly documented trend,
poachers shot down thousands of elephants, using machine guns fired from Ugandan
helicopters, in Congo (and perhaps in other countries as well). In India, the forest department
works hard to ensure the safety of elephants, and the threat of poachers, who are adaptive in
the killing of several “lucrative” species as well as enforcers who get in the way, is always a
real one.
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Poaching
Legal sales, one-off or otherwise, whether of tiger parts or elephant tusks, can only be a shot
in the arm, a booster into the veins, of this bloody trade. Those who follow the patterns of the
poaching trade clearly conclude that sales of animal parts, even if the sources are deemed
“legal,” always increase poaching. It is after all, cheaper to poach an animal than to kill it
after years of supporting it to adulthood. For instance, to tackle the question of tiger
poaching, a CITES notification to all parties states that “Parties with intensive operations
breeding tigers on a commercial scale shall implement measures to restrict the captive
population to a level supportive only to conserving wild tigers; tigers should not be bred for
trade in their parts and derivatives.” The EIA findings reflect otherwise, clearly indicating
that captive bred tigers are being sold for tiger wine in China. And more crucially for India,
regular poaching of our wild tigers (according to the Wildlife Protection Society of India, 10
tigers have been poached this year) destined for a Chinese market, shows us that any trade in
tigers, Chinese or Indian, wild or captive, will only help the illegal trade/poaching.
The other question for us to ponder over is where the money gathered from this lucrative
poaching goes. Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an answer. Last year, in a
precedent setting speech in Washington DC at a Partnership meeting on Wildlife Trafficking,
she observed, “Now, some of you might be wondering why a Secretary of State is keynoting
an event about wildlife trafficking and conservation, or why we are hosting this event at the
State Department in the first place.” She added, “Over the past few years wildlife trafficking
has become more organized, more lucrative, more widespread, and more dangerous than
ever before… By some estimates, the black market in wildlife is rivalled in size only by
trade in illegal arms and drugs. Today, ivory sells for nearly $1,000 per pound. Rhino horns
are literally worth their weight in gold, $30,000 per pound. Trafficking relies on porous
borders, corrupt officials, and strong networks of organised crime, all of which undermine
our mutual security. I’m asking the intelligence community to produce an assessment of the
impact of large-scale wildlife trafficking on our security interests so we can fully understand
what we’re up against. It’s something else when you’ve got helicopters, night vision goggles,
automatic weapons, which pose a threat to human life as well as wildlife.” In India, there is
evidence to suggest that insurgents used the money from sale of rhino horn to fund their
activities in Assam, and poaching in Maoist controlled areas is rampant (though it is not
conclusively known who is poaching animals).
Given the global scenario, at this CITES meeting, India will find itself sandwiched between
demand and supply forces: both legal, and illegal in the garb of legal. This outlines with even
more urgency the need to keep our own forests safe, and not depend on transnational regimes
to save our species.
(The views expressed are personal. Neha Sinha is with the Bombay Natural History Society.
E-mail: n.sinha@bnhs.org )
As signatories to a wildlife trade treaty meet in Bangkok, it is useful to note that ‘legal’
selling of existing ivory and tiger skin stockpiles increases the threat to endangered species
by creating a smokescreen for illegal sales
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Look beyond foreign investors
The mystique that stock markets seem to hold for lay people and policymakers alike gets
magnified several times over in budget season. There is, most certainly, no rational basis for
this. Though devoid of real significance, the share markets’ verdict on the budget in the
minutes and hours after the Finance Minister’s speech continues to be extremely important to
policymakers. This has been amply demonstrated again by the urgency shown by P.
Chidambaram and his team in allaying concerns over a provision in the Finance Bill that
seems to cast doubts on the validity of residency certificates that benefit investors routing
their investments through tax treaty centres such as Mauritius. On budget day, the sharp
decline in share indices was attributed to just this single provision. The fact that the concerns
are confined to foreign investors and tax havens used by them says it all. The broader market
and the government are explicitly acknowledging the importance of these investors. It is,
therefore, not surprising that in his budget speech, the Finance Minister gave his proposals
relating to the broad category of foreign investors pride of place among financial sector
announcements. None of them — and virtually none of the financial sector announcements
— made reference to financial outlays but are nevertheless important for the policy direction
they reveal.
In moving towards internationally accepted definitions of foreign institutional investment
(FII) and foreign direct investment (FDI), the government is facilitating larger foreign
inflows especially in sectors that have an FDI cap. Foreign investors may not have got their
entire wish list. The much-anticipated announcement to expand the role of FIIs in the debt
market did not materialise. But the package for them looks very impressive when contrasted
with what is available for domestic investors, especially the retail ones. There has been once
again a proposal to simplify the procedures for small and medium enterprises to access their
dedicated exchange. More significant, in the context of infrastructure funding, is the proposal
to start a dedicated debt segment in the stock exchanges. The facilities being accorded to
foreign capital can be justified in the current macroeconomic context of the widening current
account deficit. Yet the economy needs domestic investors too, not just the large ones but
retail investors, who should ideally be the backbone of any well developed capital market.
The ambitious disinvestment target next year, of Rs.40,000 crore, brooks no delay in
enhancing the retail participation in the markets.
Forging a new horse shoe
In a debate on Security Council reform last year, a Russian representative assertively stated:
“We deserve to be there because we won it in our history on the battlefield.” I had then
quipped that if ‘to the victor belong the spoils’ is the criteria cast in stone for a seat on the
high table, the battlefield now is fundamentally different from 1945. If, on the other hand, a
‘third world war’ is required to reform the horse shoe, this time around the victors will
emerge from the size of their economies. The two European permanent members appeared
worried then!
I cite this only to illustrate that our quest for seeking reform of the Council must never
underestimate the challenges we confront.
The P-5 club
21
First, the exclusive P-5 (Permanent Five) club. Theirs is an entrenched reluctance to share
the high table with others and, from their perspective, understandably so. Presently, at least
two of them would be hard put to justify their privileged position. Frequently, the P-5 mouth
platitudes to please the aspirants, even whilst their negotiators at the United Nations do
whatever it takes to hold back progress. Clearly, whenever we move, we would need to hold
them to the public pronouncements of their leaders and try to get at least three of them on
board. In the end, whenever the vote eventually takes place they could still be on the
opposing side, as in 1963, when the first expansion took place.
Second, the UfC or the Coffee Club countries which at best total 10-11, including our
neighbour on the west, along with Italy and a few others. Secure in the knowledge that they
would never make it to the expanded setting, they work overtime to create fissures and stall
forward movement to keep the house divided.
Before examining how critically close we are today, one needs to address the cynics in our
own system, who question both our credentials and the need for permanent membership.
Being on the Security Council is no longer an option or a luxury for India. It is an absolute
imperative. The vast expanse of issues on the Council’s plate has transcended its traditional
mandate of international peace and security to practically all matters of critical importance
including climate change, access to mineral resources, illicit flow of arms/drugs, nonproliferation and even HIV/AIDS. Not joining the pool of ‘chefs’ preparing the global menu
could result in ending up on the menu itself!
Need for 128 votes
For Security Council reform to take place, a minimum of 128 votes will be required in the
General Assembly on a resolution calling for expansion in both the categories. In a
subsequent phase, individual countries would have to demonstrate their ability to garner 128
votes for their candidatures. Ratification by legislatures of member states would then make
possible the Charter amendment.
Why is the present juncture a make or break scenario?
In March 2009, we succeeded in upgrading to an Intergovernmental Negotiation (IGN)
process. In December 2009, led by India, Brazil and others, we organised a letter signed by
140 countries to the Chair of IGN, resulting in text based negotiations. After eight rounds of
negotiations in the IGN, we now have the basis for a text and a formal draft resolution from
the CARICOM (Caribbean Community) which could be put to vote!
African Group
The biggest and ‘most difficult’ group to get on board was the 53 strong African Group,
represented through the C-10 (a group of 10 African countries chaired by Sierra Leone to
negotiate UNSC reform on behalf of Africa). Bonded by the ‘Ezulwini Consensus,’ a
maximalist position demanding two permanent and two non-permanent seats for Africa with
a veto, their claim is based in the rationale that 80 per cent of UNSC’s work is focused on
Africa, and yet they do not have permanent membership.
22
Another critical stakeholder, a group of 40 developing countries, the L69 (known by the
Resolution Number-L69 of 2008, it includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria in addition
to 14 African members, CARICOM and Small Island Developing States) has also been
proactively pushing for early reforms of the Council.
Through a process of painstakingly long and difficult negotiations, a convergence has now
been achieved between the African Group (C10) and L69 on a common draft resolution that
seeks to expand the Security Council. By end December 2012, we had an agreement on a
common text. This awaits formal endorsement through a ministerial meeting scheduled for
April 2013.
In the interim, CARICOM heads of states/governments met in Haiti on 18-19 February 2013
and instructed their negotiators to “press forward with urgency.” To everyone's surprise and
collective delight, the CARICOM chair issued a draft resolution, broadly along the lines of
the L69-C-10 text, and called for consultations.
It is the best possible assimilation of a comprehensive approach, as repeatedly articulated in
the IGN. It would take the UNSC membership to 27, with two permanent and two additional
non-permanent seats for Africa, two additional permanent and one non-permanent seat for
Asia, one permanent seat for Western Europe (WEOG), one non-permanent seat each for
Eastern Europe & Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and one permanent and one nonpermanent seat for Latin America and Caribbean States.
On the question of veto, it makes no distinction between existing and new permanent
members. This provides an excellent basis to begin the negotiations for a final vote. Given
the three double vetoes on Syria last year, the mainstream view is that a ‘veto restraint
agreement’ is the need of the hour.
Therein lies the convergence with the G4 — the other big player in the UNSC reform
process, which would also bring Germany and Japan to join this resolution, hopefully sooner
than later.
The time to act, therefore, is now. We have before us, for the first time, a draft resolution on
which the largest possible consensus could be achieved. It needs to be put to a vote on the
floor of the General Assembly. Governments are risk averse at the best of times and South
Block is no exception. A considered call will have to be made.
First expansion
There is only one precedent for such a vote. In 1963, when the first expansion occurred, the
voting sheet read: 97- Yes, 11-No and 4-abstentions. The United States and the United
Kingdom abstained, USSR and France voted against, and Taiwan voted in favour. History
will most likely repeat itself, as it often does.
We need to draw inspiration from the African Asian solidarity prevailing in 1963 that
brought about that decisive change, and recall what the Indian delegate, Mr. Mishra had then
said in that historic debate: “At the beginning of the session, it was difficult to imagine the
way in which things would move, and there were cynics among us who until even a few days
23
ago thought that we were engaged in fruitless discussions. The negotiations have been
successful because the African Asian delegations were solid on this question. Their solidarity
did not come out of any desire ... to gang up against other delegations in the Assembly. It
was born out the belief of the African Asian delegations that their cause was just and the
time was ripe...”
(Hardeep S. Puri was the Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations in New
York)
For the first time, there is a draft resolution with the largest possible consensus on
expanding the Security Council. It needs to be put to vote in the General Assembly
When water flows like money
Bharat Raut spends around Rs.800 a month on petrol — just to fetch water that belongs to
him. So do a lot of others in Takwiki village in Osmanabad district in Marathwada. Almost
every household in Takwiki (and other villages) has one member locked into a single task
each day: fetching water from wherever they can. Nearly every vehicle you see on
Osmanabad’s roads is ferrying water somewhere. That includes cycles, bullock carts,
motorbikes, jeeps, lorries, vans and tankers. And women carrying it in pots on their heads,
hips and shoulders. The drought ensures that most do it for sheer survival. Some, for a neat
profit.
Timings and distances
“Yes, every household has a person on full-time water duty,” says Bharat a small farmer
with five-and-a-half acres. In his family, he is the one. “I fetch the water that comes
sporadically from the borewell on our own fields. But it’s a little over three kilometres away
from home.” So Bharat hooks four ghadas (plastic pots) to his Hero Honda and makes three
trips a day to his fields to return with around 60 litres of water each time. “I go there just for
the little water the bore gives,” he says. “The crop itself is dying.” There are some 25
motorcycles in this village roving about on this task at any time.
Since each round trip is over six kilometres, Bharat clocks close to 20 km each day, or 600
km a month. That takes up 11 litres of petrol, or around Rs.800 a month for just this task
alone. “The water timings alternate each week,” explains Ajay Niture, who visits a
government-controlled source. “This week we have power from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. so we get
water during those hours. Next week it will be from midnight to 10 a.m.” He does his twothree kilometre trips on a bicycle mounted with seven plastic pots. And he’s been to the local
hospital twice — “it really hurts your shoulders.”
Landless workers run into trouble with employers. “Some days you turn up late. Some days
you don’t make it at all,” says Jhambhar Yadav. “That delays chores like feeding the
animals, which is bad. And this has been on for five months now.” Jhambhar has already
made two trips with sixghadas on his cycle this morning.
Impacting women
24
Yet their efforts are eclipsed by the women of Takwiki who do multiple trips daily on foot,
carrying two to three pots with them. “That’s 8-10 hours a day on the job,” they explain at
one of the water sources where they’ve congregated. They also tell us of their recycling of
water: “First you use it for your bath. Then you use that same water for washing clothes. And
finally for cleaning out the utensils.” The distances the women walk are often greater than
those covered by the men on motorbikes. They do far more trips and log over 15-20 km in a
day. The stress causes several to fall ill.
Women like Phulwantibai Dhepe have it worse. She is a Dalit and so excluded from many
water sources. Even at the government-acquired well from where she fetches her water, “I
am always last in the line.”
Sugarcane and rain
Scarcity impacts on livestock too. With little water and less fodder, “those like me who sell
milk are in a bad way. My cows are suffering and so am I. I used to make Rs.300 a day
selling milk,” says Suresh Ved Pathak. “Now the yields have fallen and I make just a third of
that.”
Takwiki is a microcosm of Osmanabad’s built-in problems. The village has less than 4,000
people, but maybe 1,500 borewells for irrigation needs. “The ones being drilled now are
going to 550 feet and beyond,” says Bharat Raut. And the main crop in this drought-prone
district is sugarcane. “We got 397 mm of rainfall least season, as against our normal average
rainfall of 767 mm,” says Osmanabad Collector K.M. Nagargoje. “In itself, 800 mm is not at
all bad rainfall. And some regions get by on 400 mm, too.”
But you can’t get by, even on 800 mm, if your output is 2.6 million metric tons of sugarcane.
A crop that demands roughly 18 million litres of water per acre. (Enough to fill seven-and-ahalf Olympic swimming pools.) And the number of farmers who can afford to save on water
by using drip is very small, just a handful in Takwiki.
Collector Nagargoje has serious trouble on his hands. And having had a stint with the
Groundwater Department, he knows it. Almost all the district’s big or medium water projects
are at dead storage level. That’s when water is below the point from where it can be pumped
out or controlled. At that stage, it serves to keep the fish alive. He does have around 3.45
million metric cubic feet left in the district’s small projects. That can’t last too long in this
district of 1.7 million people. He also has 169 water tankers presently serving two towns and
78 villages. And a district where private borewells for irrigation are spreading rapidly.
“The ground water table this January was at around 10.75 metres. That’s five metres below
the five-year average in this region,” he says. “In some blocks, it’s even lower.” He remains
optimistic about the district’s capacity to handle the crisis this year. But knows the existing
cropping patterns will thwart rescue plans in the next one.
Private trade rules
Back in Takwiki, indebtedness grows as income falls. “The sahucari(money lending) rate
here is now anything between Rs.5 to Rs.10 per hundred per month, explains Santosh Yadav.
25
(That’s 60 to 120 per cent annually.) Yadav’s own family spent nearly Rs.10 lakh in laying
down pipelines — all of which have run dry — to their fields. And summer isn’t far away.
Yadav asks: “Who can think of that? We’re focused on getting past today. One day at a time
is all we can handle.”
But if the drought makes many struggle for survival, it also boosts a trade that thrives on
scarcity. This is visible everywhere. “We spend whole days on cell phones trying desperately
to buy water from those who have it because they own borewells or some other source,” says
Bharati Thawale, a social worker. “I struck a deal with one of these water-sellers. He was to
give me 500 litres for Rs.120. But on the way he got offered Rs.200 for it and sold out. Many
frantic calls later, he brought me the water I needed, at 9 p.m. the next night.” After that,
she’s been buying water from a neighbour.
The brisk trade in water is on around the clock across the district. Scarcity drives the rates
upwards. The government has requisitioned 720 wells of water. It pays the owners of each of
these Rs.12,000 a month. Water from these is free for the public. But the long distances and
the huge crowds at these points can be daunting. Which means privateers rule. With them,
you bargain by the litre. The price can go well above Rs.200 for 500 litres. The rate spikes
sharply if you are buying small quantities. And it will all get worse in coming days. Every
colony now has someone with a borewell or other source, milking the scarcity. Here, water
flows like money.
sainath.p@thehindu.co.in
If drought is making many in Osmanabad struggle for survival, it is also boosting a 24hour trade that thrives on scarcity
A model that delivers
The intense heat of Vellore had just been vanquished temporarily by a freak storm. The
speeding wheels of the ambulance leave no trail of dust behind. Inside the vehicle, Ellama,
pregnant and full-term, is clutching her stomach with one hand and with the other, her
husband’s arm. The ambulance is trying to balance urgency with a smooth drive. As it races
from Banavaram Panchayat in Vellore to the Institute of Obstetrics and Gynaecology in
Egmore, Chennai, Ellamma and her family send up a small prayer.
Ellama had been referred to the ISO-certified Banavaram Primary Health Centre (PHC) for a
Caesarean. The district’s flagship PHC does elective and emergency C-sections five days a
week. She was scheduled for surgery, when suddenly she developed complications.
“Ordinarily, we could have delivered here, but the fainting episode made it a complex case.
We stabilised her, and made the decision to shift her to a higher institution in her best
interests,” explains S. Manonmani, Block Medical Officer.
With its blood storage units, availability of a trained obstetrician, anaesthetist, ultrasound
scan facility and doctors and nurses on call 24 hours, the block-level PHC at Banavaram is
itself a referral centre for surrounding areas. Ellamma had been referred to it from the PHC
26
at nearby Panapakkam, but prudence is the better part of valour, especially when it is the
question of saving two lives.
“Part of the task of providing quality medical care to patients is also about knowing when to
refer them to a higher centre,” says A. Somasundaram, Deputy Director of Public Health,
Vellore district, who was on a regular inspection of the PHC
The Banavaram PHC is significant to the evolution of Tamil Nadu’s public health history. It
is here that Uma Natarajan, a gynaecologist performed the first ever C-section surgery at a
PHC (in the State) on a young Saranya, back in 2007.
“Up until then, most deliveries were happening at home, or they were happening in private
centres. That is also when things changed in Tamil Nadu, leading it on to its much-feted
achievements in maternal and child health care,” explains A. Padmanabhan, Advisor, Public
Health Administration, National Health Systems Resource Centre, under the National Rural
Health Mission (NRHM).
The tipping point came, said Dr. Padmanabhan, who has also served as Director of Public
Health in the State, when people began asking for more.
“People started protesting and complaining. They started demanding facilities at the PHC
level, because going to the private clinics for delivery was a luxury only few could afford.
The administration sprung into action and created an ‘enabling’ environment for doctors at
the PHCs.”
That included operation theatre facilities, semi auto analysers (laboratory testing facilities),
ECG machines, blood storage units, training in anaesthesia for doctors (MBBS), and
appointing three trained staff nurses round the clock to take care of deliveries. Faced with the
same human resources shortage that health care in the rest of the country has to contend
with, the State government turned to innovation to tide over that looming crisis: it hired
doctors working in the private sector on contract, and paid them for services rendered.
Fewer complications
“Merely that was not enough. Once the nuts and bolts were taken care of, the focus shifted to
the small, non-infrastructural issues, like attitude of health-care staff towards patients,” Dr.
Padmanabhan explains. Ostensibly, it was the tougher task. In this, small things began to
make a difference. One of the ideas that took off was getting PHCs to conduct the
(valakappu ) bangle ceremony for pregnant women, a ritual usually conducted by her family.
“The idea was to make the PHC seem like an extension of the family. It is only the closest
members of the family who are involved in such a ceremony. It will increase the confidence
of the women and the community in the local PHC,” he adds.
Subsequently, the novelty of the valakappu wore out, but the idea of throwing a feast for the
woman has stayed. On two days of the week, ante natal mothers can eat a sumptuous meal in
the PHC they report to. Besides helping patients bond with PHC staff, this move has
delivered a significant twin result: improvements in the nutritional status of the women.
27
“Improved nutrition means fewer complications, better birth weight and better healing for
the mother,” says Dr. Manonmani. Iron-Folic Acid tablets, and iron sucrose injections are
provided to beat anaemia among young mothers.
It is not surprising then that Tamil Nadu has notched up substantial achievement in human
development indicators in the last decade or so. “Today, we have an impressive number of
deliveries taking place in the public health-care sector, right from the PHC level to the
tertiary hospital. About three lakh deliveries are now taking place in government health-care
centres in Tamil Nadu,” says J. Radhakrishnan, Health Secretary of the State. Before the
changes, that number was a low 70,000. Home deliveries have come down to less than one
per cent.
“Once out-of-pocket expenses come down, which is what the system has managed to do in
Tamil Nadu, people will see the benefit of going to a public health-care set-up, especially if
outcomes can measure up,” Dr. Padmanabhan adds.
In addition, the government provides monetary assistance to all pregnant women registered
with a government health-care institution, with the last allotment to be credited only when
the baby has finished the course of inoculations. Any case of death (mother and child) in an
institutional delivery was scrutinised and set on record via a maternal death audit.
Newborn intensive care units are being set up across the State, to revive, stabilise and
provide life support for infants. For emergencies, the babies are rushed to higher institutions
in special ambulances. More lately, in association with Mediscan, detection of birth defects
using ultrasound machines has also been initiated in some PHCs.
This period of hectic public health activity in Tamil Nadu coincides with the State clocking
the country’s fastest average decline in under-five mortality rate between 2008 and 2010.
In her presentation at the recent Call to Action Summit (for child survival and development)
held at Mamallapuram, Anuradha Gupta, Mission Director, NRHM, had abundant praise for
Tamil Nadu’s average Under-Five Mortality Rate decline (at 12.5 per cent), when the
national average decline was just over seven per cent. The Common Review Mission of the
NRHM has not only commended Tamil Nadu, but has also indicated some experiences that
can be replicated in other States.
However, she tempered her praise with a note of caution: “No State can rest on its laurels.
We have to continue to make efforts to reduce our under-Five mortality and maternal
mortality rates. For this, business as usual is not enough.”
As she pointed out, four or five districts in the State were lagging behind the rest. So, while
Tamil Nadu marks milestones in public health care, it should also look towards achieving
equity in health services across the State.
ramya.kannan@thehindu.co.in
Better equipped primary health centres are the reason why the State is posting its muchfeted achievements in maternal and child health care
28
From freeze to thaw
Last week’s talks between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers in Almaty are the first
to indicate the emergence of a possible way out of the stalemate over the Islamic Republic’s
nuclear programme. The meeting in the Kazakh city saw the Iranian side emerge upbeat.
And though P5+1 diplomats have been more circumspect, the fact that technical experts
from both sides will meet in Turkey on March 17 and 18 to be followed by another round
involving the political negotiators suggests an opportunity has arisen for genuine progress to
be made. In the talks, the P5+1 dropped three earlier demands: that Iran stop enriching
uranium to a 20 per cent concentration of the U-235 isotope, that it close down its heavily
fortified Fordow enrichment plant, and that it send its stockpile of enriched fuel abroad.
Instead, the U.S. and its partners now want Iran only to cease enrichment at Fordow and
dismantle some of the equipment there, and sharply reduce its production of 20 per cent
enriched uranium. In return, Washington and the Europeans are willing to relax some
existing secondary sanctions that restrict Iran’s ability to export oil and also desist from
seeking new sanctions.
At one level, Western sanctions have not been entirely effective and there was already
evidence, before Almaty, of their plateauing. The United States now issues blanket waivers
for countries which buy Iranian oil. Secondly, the EU General Court has ruled EU sanctions
on two major Iranian banks unlawful. And yet, sanctions have hit Iran’s economy and its
people hard: the rial has fallen 40 per cent in the past year, and unemployment is rising.
American and European bans have also intimidated many countries and private companies
into suspending Iranian links. So anything which helps reverse the sanctions tide ought to be
welcomed by Tehran. The latest P5+1 offer is proof that the hard-line positions the U.S. has
taken on the Iranian nuclear issue in the past have been counterproductive. Two years ago,
the Obama administration scuttled a Turkish-Brazilian proposal that would have involved
Iran shipping a major chunk of its 3.5 per cent enriched uranium stockpile to Turkey in
exchange for enough 20 per cent uranium to produce medical isotopes at the Tehran
Research Reactor. By killing that deal, the U.S. merely ensured that the Iranians went ahead
and produced the 20 per cent uranium themselves. It was to sidestep this sort of outcome that
the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed el-Baradei, had
first floated the idea of a freeze in sanctions on Iran in exchange for a freeze in enrichment.
The Almaty offer suggests the U.S. has finally understood that this is the only way to move
forward.
‘Don’t muddy the Kishenganga verdict’
The verdict (Part I) of the Court of Arbitration (CoA) on the Kishenganga dispute raised by
Pakistan has gone in favour of India on the primary count of whether or not the project ab
initio violates the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). On a plain reading of the text of the Treaty,
the project was clearly in order. Annexure D, Part 3, Section 15(iii) states, “Where a Plant is
located on a tributary of the Jhelum on which Pakistan has any agricultural or hydroelectric
use, the water released below the plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another tributary
but only to the extent that the then existing agricultural use or hydroelectric use by Pakistan
on the former tributary would not be adversely affected.”
29
The Kishenganga is a tributary of the Jhelum which takes the name Neelum on the Pakistan
side of Kashmir. The project under construction by India on this stem was originally planned
as a 900 MW storage project but was subsequently converted into a 330 MW run-of-the river
scheme following environmental and displacement issues in the Indian catchment. The
revised project would divert Kishenganga flows east, less ecological releases, through a
tunnel to join the Madmati Nullah. This in turn flows into the Kashmir Valley to join the
Wular Lake that is drained by the main Jhelum which flows into the Pakistani side of
Kashmir where it is met by the Neelum river a little above Muzaffarabad.
Sufficient flows
The charge of illegality raised by Pakistan was thus clearly a red herring. The real issue was
whether Pakistan would receive sufficient flows for its own 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum project
with a vague and fluctuating irrigation component of up to 1,30,000 acres. India had agreed
to let down some minimum releases and also argued that these flows would be augmented by
other free flowing nullahs that join the river between the Indian and Pakistan dams.
The CoA, however, has ruled that India must maintain a minimum rate of flow below its
Kishenganga dam and that it will determine this quantum in its final award to be announced
by the year-end. While that award is awaited, what is not clear is whether the CoA satisfied
itself about the nature and quantum of Pakistan’s “then existing uses”: when it first raised the
issue with India. This a matter on which the Pakistan position has been dodgy from the very
start, with varying claims but little to show by way of “then existing uses” on the ground.
This issue needs to be clarified beyond doubt, else it will mean that while India is held to the
letter and spirit of the Treaty, Pakistan is not and its water demand may be arbitrarily
enhanced at will. The second ruling the CoA has given is on Pakistan’s argument that the
Neutral Expert’s (NE) award on the Baglihar dispute is bad insofar as it permits India to
deplete its dead storage in order to flush the reservoir of accumulating sediment. India earlier
compromised on this issue in the case of the Sallal project, also on the Chenab. In the result
the dam all but silted up within a single season, drastically reducing power production. The
CoA has however stated the ruling would not apply to Indian projects currently under
operation or construction whose designs have been communicated to Pakistan and have not
been objected to by the latter.
The question now arises as to which view shall prevail on the issue of drawdown flushing in
the case of future projects on silt-laded rivers, that of the NE or the CoA? Part 3, Section 8(d)
of the Indus Treaty provides an answer. This states that “there shall be no outlets below the
dead storage level unless necessary for sediment control or any other technical purpose; any
such outlet shall be of minimum size and be located at the highest level consistent with
sound and economical design and with satisfactory operation of the works.”
If however the difference or dispute persists, the matter shall be decided by reference to a NE
or CoA. This might well need to happen to obtain absolute clarity on the subject.
John Briscoe, a Harvard Professor formerly of the World Bank, has weighed in on this very
matter ( See: editorial page, The Hindu , “Winning the battle but losing the war,” February
22, 2013). He pleads that the NE’s verdict on drawdown flushing undermines the Treaty by
eliminating the limits to live storage on the three western rivers by India as specified under
30
the Treaty. There is nothing in the text of the IWT that sustains any such inference. Nor is it
clear from where Briscoe conjures up the statistic that India already has 40 days of
“cumulative storage” on the Chenab.
The fact is that against a total storage of 3.60 million acre feet to which India is entitled on
the three western rivers, the current storage is pretty near zero. All its major projects are runof-river schemes that have strictly determined “pondages.” Section 2(g) of Annexure D,
defines a “run-of-river” plant as “a hydroelectric plant that develops power without Live
Storage as an integral part of the plant, except for pondage and surcharge storages.”
Pondage, in turn, means “Live Storage of only sufficient magnitude to meet the fluctuations
in the discharge of the turbines arising from variations in the daily and weekly loads of the
plants.” The ponded water must be returned to the river within 24 hours, the system
operating much like a circulating fountain.
I am not an engineer like my friend John Briscoe. But I believe he has inadvertently got it
wrong. Few have read the text of the IWT and are easily confused by jargon and hence the
need for clarity. The final CoA Award must now be awaited without further muddying the
waters.
(B.G. Verghese is with the Centre for Policy Research. Visit:www.bgverghese.com )
Nepal deal is within grasp
Nepalese parties are inching towards resolving a 10-month long political deadlock that will
enable the holding of fresh elections for a new Constituent Assembly (CA). Despite Prime
Minister Baburam Bhattarai being the last legitimately elected leader from the floor of the
house, the opposition had refused to accept polls under him. For its part, the ruling MaoistMadhesi alliance saw no reason to hand over power to political rivals. A way out emerged
last month when the Maoists proposed that an election government be formed under Chief
Justice Khila Raj Regmi. The idea had prior sanction from President Ram Baran Yadav.
Despite dissent from the middle-ranking leaders, the Nepali Congress and the Communist
Party of Nepal (Unified-Marxist-Leninist) have agreed to this proposal. However, the
agreement has drawn criticism on the ground that it violates the principle of separation of
powers. The Nepalese Supreme Court will also hear a case on Thursday regarding the
constitutionality of the move. A chief justice leading the executive is not ideal in any
democracy but Nepal’s extraordinary crisis calls for extraordinary measures. The interim
constitution did not envisage the CA’s failure and has no provision for a second CA election.
Given the intensity of political polarisation and mistrust, here at last is a reasonable via
media.
As long as Mr. Regmi leads the transitional government, he will have nothing to do with the
court and the next in line in the Supreme Court would be acting chief justice. But parties also
need to agree on other key issues. The current voter rolls have almost six million fewer
voters than in the 2008 polls, and four million less than the census figure of eligible voters.
This disenfranchisement, deliberate or otherwise, must be addressed. Second, opposition
parties have stepped back from a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ to award a colonel-level rank to
the seniormost Maoist combatants integrated into the Nepal Army, leaving the peace process
incomplete. Third, key constitutional vacancies, including of election commissioners, have
31
to be filled. Fourth, the Maoists want to formalise a Truth and Reconciliation (TRC)
Commission while the opposition wants to delink this from an election deal. The TRC
should be a part of the deal only if the commission gives voice to victims and does not seek
to brush away crimes against humanity committed during the civil war. Nepal’s parties must
seize the moment, show their democratic credentials, sign a comprehensive deal, entrust the
government to the chief justice, and aim for elections in June. If this timeline is not met for
technical reasons, elections must be held after the monsoon and festivals in November.
Nepal’s citizens are waiting to be heard.
For the women of India, Parliament must speak
A brave young woman died a brutal death in the heart of the nation’s capital. And Parliament
must speak. Today. Tomorrow. Or, the day after. But speak it must. And in a unified voice of
conviction and certitude, rising above the cacophony of political difference say No to
violence against women. Not in mere words, howsoever strong and impassioned, but in
deeds, in crafting into our statute books laws on fighting sexual violence that are overdue,
that the nation demands, and that are truly just to women. After decades of slow momentum
on women’s rights, India is poised on a cusp of change. It is now in the hands of
parliamentarians to make that a reality. Let a voice reverberate from the halls of Parliament,
sending a signal to India and to the world that our democracy is alive, that our democracy is
good for women, and that this time the ramparts of patriarchy shall give.
History is littered with lost opportunities for change. Let this not be one of them. Today,
scores of women across India, protesting on the streets, watching from their homes, writing
in their blogs, alert with angry chatter on e-groups, speaking loudly in press conferences,
strategising in quiet huddles — are saying the same thing — uphold the Justice Verma
Committee (JVC) Report!
The task before Parliament is not simple. First there was the Criminal Law Amendment Bill
2012 (CLB), tabled in the Lok Sabha on December 4, 2012, and sent to the Parliamentary
Standing Committee. The CLB 2012, crafted before the JVC was even constituted, was
flawed and reactionary, flying in the face of repeated demands by women rights groups
across the country. It was soundly opposed through scores of submissions to the
Parliamentary Standing Committee. But even as the Standing Committee was considering its
response, it was overtaken by events — the brutal gang-rape of the young woman on
December 16, 2012, the constitution of the JVC on December 23, 2013, the quick
submission of its report on January 23, 2013, and then, ostensibly, in response to national
sentiment, in an act of haste and stealth — an Ordinance which was signed into law on
February 5, 2013.
Now the Parliamentary Standing Committee, which officially considered the Criminal Law
(Amendment) Bill, 2012, (and the Ordinance, 2013 as well), has submitted its report. And
the Government of India is poised to craft a new Bill to replace the Ordinance. Sadly, the
Standing Committee report does little to push the boundaries of our collective conscience,
and one only hopes that the new Bill will.
32
While both the SC report and the Ordinance 2013 can claim to have incorporated parts of the
JVC recommendations on points of law, the question Parliament must ask is, as it considers
any new Bill, is: which key JVC recommendations got left out?
The list of omissions is illuminating. Both the Ordinance 2013 and the SC Recommendations
not only retain the core of impunity for sexual crimes, they actually add to it.
Accountability
What is impunity? A simple Thesaurus search will show up the following words — license,
exemption, freedom, liberty, latitude and immunity. Centuries of impunity emboldens those
who commit violence. It emboldened the men who mauled a young woman’s body. Yet, the
Ordinance 2013, which is today the law of the land, has created laws on sexual assault,
harassment and rape in which the accused is “gender neutral,” i.e. both women and men can
be accused of these crimes. Does this sound right? Can we sweep away the painful, historical
and contemporary reality of masculine violence against women in India — of women,
stalked and raped by men in fields, homes and streets? Yes, in custodial situations, women
can be perpetrators of sexual violence — no one who has seen images of Abu Ghraib should
believe otherwise. But not across the board. Given the brute nature of gender-based
inequities in India, the huge imbalance of power between men and women, the realities of
rape across our towns and villages, is this the law that the women of India deserve?
For every complaint made against an offender, there now arises a real possibility of countercomplaints that will silence women even more than they are today. Which woman will brave
the sceptical stance of the police and judiciary to seek justice when she herself stands to be in
the dock, accused of the same crime as the offender? These are the questions Parliament
must ask.
The SC report and Ordinance also uphold impunity of the police, keeping intact their licence
to refuse to lodge FIRs, to smirk and scorn women who seek its help. The JVC report had
recommended creating a new offence (166A) for public servants who disobey the law and
proposing a mandatory minimum sentence. The Standing Committee supports inclusion of
this offence but says ‘no’ to a minimum sentence. So, a rap on the knuckles is the only real
deterrent we offer erring police. Parliament must demand full accountability from the public
servants of this country — to ensure that they provide protection and ensure prosecution if
women are violated; and Parliament must ensure that any new Bill on sexual assault and rape
proposes a minimum sentence for erring public officials.
Age of consent
And where will Parliament stand on age of consent? Will it stand up for the rights of the
young men and women of India, who deserve the right to be young, and to not be
criminalised? Or should we make them even more vulnerable to self-appointed moral
guardians with medieval mindsets, to the khap panchayats, by making sexual contact with
anyone between 16-18 years a statutory offence, as the Ordinance 2013 does and the
Standing Committee upholds? Statutory offence means any third party can threaten young
people with jail-time; it means a judge must convict them, even though the couple may beg
and plead and say this was not a crime; it means harassment by police in inter-caste
33
relationships; it means a powerful tool in the hands of the wrong people. If Parliament passes
a Bill that criminalises consensual sexual contact with anyone between 16-18, India’s
portrait will hang in the international gallery of shame.
There is more at stake — will the new Bill recognise marital rape? Or, make it obligatory on
the State to provide reparations for victims? At the time of writing we do not know what the
provisions of the Government’s new Bill will be. If it upholds the provisions and spirit of the
Justice Verma Committee report, Parliamentarians must pass it into law, and as you thump
your tables in approval, women outside will celebrate with you. This time, in memory of a
young woman who died as no woman should, Parliament must speak for all the women of
India. And this time the ramparts of patriarchy must give.
(Farah Naqvi, a writer and activist, is a member of the National Advisory Council. Views
expressed here are personal. E-mail:farah.naqvi64@yahoo.com )
The House must ensure that the new Bill to replace the Criminal Law Ordinance
consciously upholds the provisions and spirit of the Verma Committee report
Patients win over patents
Monday was a remarkable day for cancer patients in India. To them, the country said — “we
care.” I am talking about the astounding decision by Justice Sridevan of the Intellectual
Property Appellate Board (IPAB) permitting Natco Pharma Ltd. to continue making and
selling a generic version of Bayer’s kidney cancer drug Nexavar.
Legal jargon apart, this saga involves a drug called Sorafenib, used to treat advanced liver
and kidney cancer to extend the life of a patient. The patent — both in India and in the
United States — for the drug is held by the multinational company, Bayer Corporation. Yes,
there is no doubt that the drug is a blessing for such patients to extend their life expectancy.
But, the availability of the drug from Bayer at a selling price of Rs.2,80,428 per month left
the impression of “water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink!”
In reality, an Indian employee who earns Rs. 2,80,428 per month would consider himself
very well-employed. In fact, an employee who earns that much a year would consider
himself well-employed. But this drug would have made a have-not of even the haves. And,
this is something that innovative pharmaceutical companies never seem to appreciate.
Multinational’s assertion
In any event, the petition that finally landed at the IPAB began when the then Patent
Controller General, P.H. Kurien, found himself with Natco’s petition to compulsorily licence
the drug after both the Delhi and the Mumbai High Courts denied a writ on the basis that the
administrative authority was the appropriate forum. When the Controller-General examined
the petition, he found that although there were approximately 20,000 patients with liver
cancer and about 9,000 patients with kidney cancer in India, in the years 2008 to 2010, a
negligible amount of Sorafenib was imported into India for sale by Bayer. In fact, no
importation ensued in 2008, a year when Bayer recorded a worldwide profit of over $678
million in the rest of the world. To the Controller, this showed that the patent holder was not
34
fulfilling its duty of catering to the demands of the market in India. (Notably, Bayer asserted
that it was unable to sell its product in India because Cipla was selling the drug in the market
for a price of Rs.30,000 per month at the time of the application and for Rs.5,400 at the time
of the IPAB’s opinion. Bayer’s infringement suit against Cipla is still pending in the Delhi
High Court.)
Considering the facts, the Controller concluded that Bayer’s (in)action amounted to a
showing that the reasonable expectations of the public were not met. Further, that Bayer
imported Sorafenib showed that the patent holder was not manufacturing it locally as
required under the statute. Given these factors, the Controller concluded that the drug was in
fact not reasonably priced (anyone surprised at Rs.2,00,000 per month)! He made a reasoned
order showing that the patent holder was unable to establish that it met the demands of the
Indian market for the drug.
In India, a patent holder can be compelled by the controller of patents to licence his
invention to a third party under Section 84 of the statute on the grounds that either the patent
has not been worked to satisfy the reasonable requirement of the public, or that the patented
invention is not reasonably priced. The controller takes several factors including the nature
of the invention and the applicant’s ability to work the invention to the advantage of the
public. Such compulsory licences are issued when it is determined that the need for the
public overweighs the rights of the patent holder, like in the case of the Bayer patent.
Price point
For Natco, the company that forced Bayer to compulsorily license its drug, this represents a
huge strategic success. In fact, Natco was pushing for a compulsory licence first against,
Roche’s anti-cancer drug, Tarceva (Erlotinib) for supply to Nepal way back in 2008 and
later, for the manufacture and export of Sunitnib [Sutent], also an anti-cancer drug. That it is
strategic was not lost on Justice Sridevan and is reflected in her judgment. The opinion
discusses Natco’s request for compulsory licence, given Cipla’s presence already in the
market. Ultimately, the opinion weighs the balance of hardships. That is, whether the grant
of stay for the patent holder is balanced alongside the sufferance to public interest. The high
point of the judgment is the interpretation of the term “reasonable” in the context of the
purchasing power of the public. In all, the decision is bold — it posits public interest right at
the heart of patent issues in India. If there is a problem, it is for the government to find an
able replacement to fill Justice Sridevan’s able shoes when and if she retires.
The opinion could not be more timely — it came seven days after newspapers reported that
the Department of Pharmaceuticals had suggested doing away with compulsory licensing. I
still remember the report when Murasoli Maran took the lead to negotiate the Agreement on
Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (Trips) on Public Health in the Doha
Declaration, that is widely considered as a great win for developing countries. What a shame
it would be, if India took the first step to abolish what we carefully negotiated.
It was intriguing that pending the application, Bayer had agreed to sell the drug at Rs.30,000
per month. It is sad but this strategy of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of
America (PhRMA) to act like they are still in the pre-Trips days is becoming a little slate. To
recollect, in Brazil too, members of PhRMA refused to licence patented AIDS medication
35
until similar steps were put in effect. Surely, strategists for innovative pharmaceutical
companies in India recognise that it is prices like Rs.2,00,000 per month for one drug, rather
than the Department of Pharmaceuticals, that is preventing them from establishing in Indian
market.
(Srividhya Ragavan is a Professor of Law at the University of Oklahoma College of Law.)
Justice Prabha Sridevan’s judgment permitting the production and sale of a generic
version of a cancer drug is a victory for patients. It posits the public interest, especially in
matters of health care, right at the heart of intellectual property rights in India
The dragon gets a bear hug
Russia is resuming the supply of advanced weapon platforms to China in a move that may
have implications for India. At the end of last year, Russia concluded a framework
agreement with China for the sale of four Amur-1650 diesel submarines. In January it signed
another intergovernmental agreement for the supply of Russia’s latest Su-35 long-range
fighter planes.
If the deals go through, it will be for the first time in a decade that Russia has delivered
offensive weapons to China. It will also mark the first time that Russia has supplied China
with more powerful weapon platforms compared with Russian-built systems India has in its
arsenals. In the past, the opposite was the rule.
For example, the Su-30MKK jet fighters Russia sold to China were no match for the Su30MKIs supplied to India at about the same time. The Chinese planes had an inferior radar
and without the thrust vectoring engines the Indian version had. This time the situation looks
reversed. The Amur-1650 submarine is far more silent and powerful than the Kilo-class
submarines the Indian Navy has in its inventory. India’s Su-30MKI will be no match for
China’s Su-35 which is powered by a higher thrust engine and boasts a more sophisticated
radar, avionics and weapons, according to a leading Russian military expert, Konstantin
Makienko.
China’s acquisition of the Su-35 will also question the wisdom of India’s plan to buy the
French Rafale, the expert said. “The sale of Su-35s to China will shoot down the value of the
Rafale for India,” Mr. Makienko, who is deputy head of Russia’s top defence think tank,
Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told The Hindu .
“The Rafale will stand no chance against China’s Su-35,” the expert explained. “The Su-35’s
Irbis radar has more than twice the detection range of the Rafale’s Thales RBE2, and will
lock onto its target well before the Russian plane becomes visible for a retaliatory strike. The
117S engines of the Su-35 are also far more powerful than the Rafale’s Snecma M88.”
The Russian Air Force is just beginning to take delivery of the new aircraft and China may
become the first country to import it. The relatively small number of Su-35s China plans to
buy, 24, should not deceive anyone, Mr. Makienko said. China followed the same buying
pattern for the Su-27, initially ordering 24 planes and ending up with more than 200 Su-27s
and its licence-built version, the J-11.
36
The supply to China of more advanced weapon platforms than those available to India
appears to contradict some basic geopolitical realities. India remains Russia’s most trusted
partner whose defence requirements have never been refused. By contrast, Russia has always
been apprehensive of the Chinese dragon and suspicious of its intentions towards resourcerich and population-poor Siberia.
Calls for restraint
There is consensus in the Russian strategic community that Moscow should exercise
maximum restraint in providing China with advanced military technologies. Experts were
shocked to find out that Chinese engineers had mastered the production of clones of most
weapon systems cash-strapped Russia supplied to China in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Russian arms sales to China plummeted in recent years as China switched to domestic
production, while Moscow became more cautious in offering Beijing cutting-edge
technologies. Not only did China illegally copy Russian weapon systems, but it also began to
export those undercutting Russian sales of higher-priced original platforms.
Some experts even called for a complete halt to arms sales to China, arguing that
demographic pressures and a growing need of resources may one day push China to turn
Russian weapons against Russia.
“We should stop selling them the rope to hang us with,” warned Alexander Khramchikhin of
the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
However, the risks of selling advanced weapons to China took a back seat in Moscow’s
calculations after Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin for a third term a year ago. Last
year, Russia’s state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, signed contracts with China worth
$2.1-billion, the company’s head Anatoly Isaikin said recently. The renewal of sophisticated
weapon supplies to China should be seen in the context of geopolitical games in the ChinaU.S.-Russia triangle.
“The balance of power between America and China will to a large extend depend on whether
and on which side Russia will play,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, foreign policy analyst.
Russia and China are revitalising defence ties at a time when their relations with the U.S.
have run into rough waters. Moscow is deeply disappointed with Mr. Obama’s policy of
“reset,” which is seen in Moscow as a U.S. instrument of winning unilateral concessions
from Russia, while Beijing views Mr. Obama’s strategic redeployment in the Asia-Pacific
region as aimed at containing China.
Profit motives
Russian defence sales to China are also driven by profit motives as arms manufacturers seek
to compensate for the recent loss of several lucrative contracts in India, where they face
growing competition from the U.S., Europe and Israel. Also, Moscow seems to be less
concerned today about the so-called “reverse engineering” of Russian weapons in China as
the ability of the Chinese industry to copy critical technologies appears to have been
overrated.
37
“China’s programme of developing the J-11B family of aircraft based on the Su-27 platform
has run into problems,” said Vasily Kashin, expert on China. “China’s aircraft engines,
which are essentially modified version of Russian engines, are way too inferior to the
originals and China continues to depend on the supply of Russian engines.”
In the past three-four years, China has bought over 1,000 aircraft engines from Russia and is
expected to place more orders in coming years.
“When and if China succeeds in copying Russia’s new weapon platforms the Russian
industry will hopefully move ahead with new technologies,” Mr. Kashin said.
India can also easily offset the advantage that new Russian arms supplies may give China,
experts said.
“To retain its edge in military aviation, India needs to speed up the development of a 5thgeneration fighter plane with Russia and go for in-depth upgrade of its fleet of Su-30MKI
fighters,” Mr. Makienko said.
Trade differences
However, the resumption of massive Russian arms supplies to China could still be a cause
for concern in India. Closer defence ties between Moscow and Beijing are an offshoot of
strong dynamics of their overall relations. China is Russia’s top commercial partner, with
bilateral trade expected to touch $90 billion this year and soar to $200 billion by 2020. Mr.
Putin has described China’s rise as “a chance to catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our
economy.”
This contrasts with sluggish trade between India and Russia, which stood at $11 billion last
year; even the target of $20 billion the two governments set for 2015 falls short on ambition.
India risks being eclipsed by China on the Russian radar screens. As Russia’s top business
daily Kommersant noted recently, even today, Russian officials from top to bottom tend to
look at India with “drowsy apathy,” while Mr. Putin’s visit to India last year was long on
“meaningless protocol” and short on time and substance.
Russia and China are revitalising defence ties at a time when relations of both with the
U.S. have run into rough waters
Women in the police
Data just tabled in Parliament show that of the 16.6 lakh police personnel in India in 2011 at
the constabulary level, only 93,887 — or 13.3 per cent — are women. Progress on this count
has been halting in the 80 years since India’s first policewoman donned her uniform in
Travancore in 1933, but the pace has picked up of late. Nevertheless, representation is
uneven across States. Mizoram had no woman in its force in 2011, while Maharashtra and
Tamil Nadu had the most, almost doubling their numbers in the two years since 2009. Uttar
Pradesh saw a drop, with just 2,354 women personnel in 2011 of a total of 1.87 lakh.
Numbers are important. The very presence of women could create an environment for
women and those from weaker sections of society to access police stations with less
38
diffidence and difficulty than would otherwise have been the case. A critical mass should be
achieved by ensuring that women comprise at least 33 per cent of the constabulary.
Yet, numbers alone will not do. Women in the constabulary must get the training, support
and confidence needed to put them on a par in every sense with their male counterparts. A
common gender-neutral cadre needs to be created for all ranks so that promotional
opportunities are evenly available. Women should be routinely and readily considered for
front-line postings at cutting edge levels based on their competence and experience.
Resource centres for mentoring, creating awareness about opportunities and prospects, and
helping with career planning and training and coping with workplace challenges are
essential. Women have a role in making up for the lack of training and sensitisation of the
force in general in dealing with crimes against women. At the same time, women constables
and officers should not be ghettoised into dealing only with such crimes. As the experience
in many countries of the world shows — New York City had its first policewoman as early
as in 1845 — there is no policing function that women cannot perform. Given the prevalence
of sexist attitudes within the bureaucracy and police, an organisational response from the
force is needed to enable women to realise their full potential. The Ministry of Home Affairs
should set targets for individual police forces and create a mechanism to monitor female
advancement. Grants should be linked to progress achieved. Integrating women in the force
should become an essential component of the process of police reform in India, enabling
them to become real change agents. Having more women in the force should not be seen as
just an expression of the formal fulfilment of sexual equality, important though that goal is.
Rather, the contemporary needs of policing also demand it.
Patently just
The Intellectual Property Appellate Board order upholding the compulsory licence granted to
Natco Pharma to produce a generic version of Nexavar, or Sorafenib, a cancer drug patented
by Bayer Corporation, is a strong endorsement of lawful action taken in public interest.
Access to essential medicines is fundamental to the human right to good health. India’s
amended Patent law and the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights clarified
by the Doha declaration are unambiguous when it comes to invoking compulsory licensing
provisions to benefit people who cannot otherwise afford treatment. The pharmaceutical
industry has done itself a disservice by pricing essential drugs beyond the reach of the
average citizen. The phenomenon is graphically illustrated by the Nexavar case: the patented
and generic equivalent are priced at Rs. 2.8 lakh and Rs. 8,800 respectively for one month’s
dosage, a staggering differential. Although the licence given in the Natco case resulted in
voluntary price cuts on other cancer drugs by some companies, several key branded drugs
remain unaffordable in India. This is partly due to the failure of States to centrally procure
and distribute them. Where such procurement exists, manufacturers are ready to sell to
official agencies, such as the Tamil Nadu Medical Services Corporation, for a fraction of the
retail price.
The Twelfth Plan points out that availability of essential medicines in public sector health
facilities free of cost is critical today. Equally, the list of essential medicines should be
expanded, and States must set up special stores to make the drugs prescribed in the private
sector available at low cost. What stands in the way of people benefiting from availability of
new medicines in cancer treatment, among other areas, is the post-2005 product patent
39
dispensation which has created manufacturer monopolies. This can be mitigated through
compulsory licensing and that too by facilitating large scale manufacture in the public sector.
India’s pharmaceutical market based on private sector care is worth about Rs. 56,000 crore
annually, the major part being spent on non-essential medicines. The High Level Expert
Group on Universal Health Coverage points out that the industry spent over a quarter of its
annual turnover on sales promotion and a mere seven per cent on research and development.
It is disingenuous, therefore, to argue that compulsory licensing will affect innovation. The
Centre must persist with compulsory licensing and aggressive drug price controls.
Favourable patent provisions must be protected and used without hesitation to advance
universal health coverage.
In Palk Bay, goodwill slips through fishing nets
Violent incidents involving Tamil Nadu fishermen and the Sri Lankan Navy in the Palk Bay
are not new. The fishing grounds, rich on the Sri Lankan side of the maritime boundary, are
today the bone of contention between Tamil fishermen of both countries. The Sri Lankan
fishermen, the worst victims of ethnic conflict, have resumed fishing and find poaching by
Tamil Nadu fishermen to be a major hindrance to their livelihood.
In order to understand the true nature of the conflict, it is necessary to highlight certain, basic
realities. Fishermen throughout the world are no respecters of maritime boundaries; they go
wherever there is fish. Thus, Sri Lankan fishermen enter the Maldivian waters and the Indian
Exclusive Economic Zone to catch tuna, while Indian fishermen get into Pakistani,
Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan waters.
The root of the problem can be traced to the mid-1960s when trawlers were introduced in the
Palk Bay. Short of foreign exchange and keen to boost exports, the government of India
provided subsidies to trawler owners. It was an illustration of being penny wise and pound
foolish. While exports went up, overfishing and destruction of the seabed ensued. As a
result, there is practically no fish on the Indian side. As Rameswaram fishermen told me, to
earn their livelihood they have no other option but to enter Sri Lankan waters.
Civil war
The maritime boundary agreements of 1974 and 1976 further vitiated the situation. Not only
was the island of Kachchatheevu ceded to Sri Lanka, but the traditional fishing rights
enjoyed by Indian fishermen were bartered away. However, it did not alter ground realities
because the Sri Lankan government was not keen to enforce its jurisdiction over the sea.
The civil war brought about a qualitative transformation. Tamil Nadu became the sanctuary
and support base of the Tamil Tigers and the Palk Bay became the conduit through which the
war machine was fuelled. Colombo imposed a ban on fishing and fishermen became refugees
and took shelter in India. Poaching in Sri Lankan waters became rampant. Fish production
went up and the trawler fleet more than doubled. The Sri Lankan Navy, which could not
distinguish between a fisherman and a guerrilla, began to resort to firing. A number of
fishermen were killed, many injured and the catch, worth crores of rupees, dumped into the
sea.
40
During the Fourth Eelam War, in order to get New Delhi’s support the Sri Lankan
government began to make overtures. Basil Rajapaksa stated that his government had no
problem if Indian fishermen fished in Sri Lankan waters, but the fishermen should not enter
high security zones. On October 26, 2008, a joint statement was issued in which Colombo
made a solemn assurance that “there will be no firing on the Indian fishing vessels.”
Colombo has since gone back on them. Today, it questions the right of Indian fishermen to
cross the maritime boundary line. While incidents of firing by the Sri Lankan Navy have
declined, Indian fishermen continue to be detained, intimidated and harassed.
Issue in provincial politics
With the Sri Lankan Tamil fishermen resuming their vocation, new tensions began to
develop. Fishing is one of the major vocations in the Northern Province and before 1983, 38
per cent of the island’s fish production came from Jaffna, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts.
Sri Lankan fishermen told me that Indian trawlers came very near the shores, severed their
fishing nets and caused incalculable damage by bottom trawling. Sri Lanka, aware of the
negative effects of trawling, has banned the use of trawlers and monofilament nets.
Occasionally clashes have taken place between Tamil fishermen of both countries. What is
more, as and when elections take place in the Northern Province, poaching by Indian
fishermen will be a major issue in electoral politics.
While competitive one-upmanship in support of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause is the order of
the day in Tamil Nadu, the question of the livelihood of Sri Lankan fishermen never gets any
mention. The State government repeats that the problem is a direct offshoot of the 1974 and
1976 agreements and that the only remedy is to get the island of Kachchatheevu back by
“lease in perpetuity,” reopen dialogue with Colombo and get the traditional fishing rights
restored.
Solutions
According to informed sources, the Sri Lankan government has taken photographs of how
Indian fishermen get into Sri Lankan waters on an hourly basis. Powerful sections within the
government are also clamouring that Colombo should internationalise the issue by filing a
case in the International Court of Justice.
The need of the hour is for the government of Tamil Nadu to tell fishermen not to poach in
Sri Lankan waters and deprive the other side of its livelihood. Steps should also be taken to
reduce the number of trawlers with buy-back arrangements. At the same time, fishermen of
both countries should continue their dialogue to arrive at an amicable solution. While New
Delhi has welcomed the ongoing dialogue among fishermen, Colombo continues to maintain
an ambivalent stand.
Given the limitations of space in the Palk Bay, it is necessary to reconcile to the reality that
transborder fishing is likely to continue. But it cannot go on in an unregulated manner.
Perhaps the ideal solution is to look at Palk Bay not as a contested territory but as a common
heritage. A Palk Bay Authority (PBA) should be constituted immediately, comprising
representatives of both countries. The PBA can determine the annual sustainable catch, the
41
type of fishing equipment that can be used, the number of days on which Indian and Sri
Lankan fishing vessels could fish, and how the marine resources could be enriched. The
Tamil fishermen should also be encouraged to undertake joint ventures in deep sea fishing.
This perhaps is the only way to promote bilateral and regional cooperation in South Asia.
(Dr. V. Suryanarayan is senior professor (retired), Centre for South and Southeast Asian
Studies, University of Madras.)
It is time for Tamil Nadu to face up to the reality that its fishers are hurting livelihoods of
Tamil fishermen on the Sri Lankan side
Why the World Bank is wrong
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler” — Albert Einstein
The World Bank has been pressing for the removal of restrictions on Floor Space Index (or
at least their considerable relaxation) in the inner parts of Mumbai and Bangalore. The
thinking that leads to this recommendation is based on a mathematical model. This particular
model, unfortunately, is oversimplified and neglects important relevant parameters. If you
take these into account, the recommendation could be, quite possibly, more damaging than
helpful.
Assumptions
Called the monocentric-city model, this assumes the city is inhabited by a number of
identical residents, each earning the same income, and who all work in the central business
district (CBD). The inhabitants commute from their residences to the CBD on a dense radial
road network, paying a certain amount per round-trip mile (including the cost of travel time).
An implicit assumption is that commuting is by car, not by public transport that might lead to
some preferred travel routes, and not by walking which incurs no explicit travel cost.
Further, each resident is assumed to be a renter, paying a certain amount per square foot of
housing, and occupying a certain amount of square feet of housing. The price naturally falls
with distance from the CBD, and the housing area occupied increases.
The mathematical formulation then moves through various complexities to the consideration
of FSI, and what happens when FSI is restricted (as it is in most cities). The FSI restriction
tends to limit population density in the central part of the city; and so causes the city to
spread out.
Studying the condition of the new resident as the city grows, the model suggests that if FSI
restrictions in the inner city are removed, this accommodates more people closer to the
centre and so their commuting times are reduced. This is claimed to result in a welfare gain
for them, which is measured in terms of their reduced commuting costs. So the claim is that
lifting FSI restrictions brings about an overall welfare gain.
The first indication that something is flawed in the argument comes from consideration of
where the limit lies if we allow unlimited densification. Every increment in density will
result in still more saving for commuters. As the model stands, there is no limit to the saving
42
possible, until commuting cost is reduced to zero. We are obviously missing something.
There has to be a constraining parameter that would put a cap, sooner or later, on how small
the city can get while being both efficient and attractive.
This constraint is congestion and its consequences. The first untenable hidden assumption in
the model is that travel speed is constant, and travel time is proportionate to distance and
nothing else. In reality, if we retain the model’s assumption that all travel is by car, as
densities rise and streets become more crowded there is bound to be a reduction in travel
speeds. It is common knowledge in transportation engineering that as demand increases, road
speed reduces and the hourly throughput of vehicles falls. So FSI permitted in a locality
needs to be judiciously related to transport demand and transport capacity.
The second hidden assumption is that existing residents are not adversely affected by
densification. The fact is that they will now have to share their open spaces and other
amenities with new residents, and surely this results in some loss of welfare for the older
residents.
A third use
In essence, the model assumes that there are only two uses for land in the city: either for
transport by car or for residences. In practice, of course, there is a third use, and that is for
open spaces, schools and playgrounds, and land needed for other public amenities. These
could be considered a fixed proportion of the total and therefore irrelevant to the argument of
the model. However, since localities once built up are hard to change, with densification the
availability of amenity space per capita will necessarily diminish, resulting in a loss of
welfare for existing residents.
This is not to deny that a more compact city would be more efficient in terms of transport
costs, provided it was designed ab initio keeping in mind the necessary high transport
capacities and providing adequate physical and social infrastructure towards the city centre.
We should also recognise that FSI can be used in two ways: either it can increase the
consumption of floor space by individuals without affecting the total population count in a
locality; or it can be used to accommodate more individuals within the same locality, thus
raising densities.
There can surely be no harm at all in raising FAR if all it does is give each individual more
floor space without encroaching on his neighbour’s light and air.
We should also note a number of other limitations of the monocentric-city model:
• Much employment, certainly more than half, is endogenous, such as laundries and
restaurants and branches of banks, serving a local clientele, and therefore is distributed
throughout the city. This proportionately dilutes any argument based on the monocentricity
of employment.
• Such exogenous employment as there is is often concentrated according to specialisation
and distributed over multiple centres, not just one CBD. This may or may not invalidate the
43
findings for a monocentric city. But what it certainly does is add trips from one workplace to
another, and therefore dilutes the proportion of commuting trips to all trips.
• Transit lines, even regular bus routes, alter the preferred directions of city growth. The
dense radial pattern is no longer meaningful.
• People attach a value to living at comfortable densities, neither too high nor too low, and
this value is ignored in the model. Individual preferences do vary even within the same
income group. Those with families may prefer living at lower densities (this is quite separate
from having a larger house or plot).
• Some localities are preferred to others, on grounds that have nothing to do with distance
from the city centre. And there is considerable variation in this choice from one individual to
another.
A recent study, by Shlomo Angel and others, of a global sample of 120 cities notes that
urban densities have been declining in cities around the world. Between 1990 and 2000,
mean built-up area densities declined in 75 of 88 cities in the developing world, and all 32
cities in the developed world. The rate of density decline averaged just over 2 per cent per
annum.
If, as the World Bank suggests, increasing FSI, with the objective of increasing densification,
delivers an overall welfare gain, how come, world-wide, there is a relentless drift the other
way?
(Shirish B. Patel is a civil engineer and urban planner. He was one of three original authors
of the idea of New Bombay, and for its first five years was in charge of planning, design and
execution for the new city)
The case for removing the FSI cap in the inner cities of top metros is based on a flawed
model that does not factor in the effects of congestion
Land lessons from Australia
Australia’s recent decision to give up uranium mining on aboriginal land in Koongarra
stands in sharp contrast to the Manmohan Singh government’s dithering and double-speak
on the forceful acquisition of tribal lands. This also highlights Indian officialdom’s shallow
and insensitive understanding of the land and life of tribal communities. The 12.5 sq km
patch of land in Koongarra is one of three uranium-rich pockets within the Kakadu National
Park in northern Australia. Though the park was legally protected and even inscribed as a
World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 1981 for its archaeological and ethnological qualities,
Koongarra remained excluded to facilitate commercial exploitation of uranium. The
aboriginal communities opposed this and resisted moves to grant a mining lease to private
companies. They knew that the operations would destroy their life, which is inextricably
linked to the land, and the cultural landscape that nourishes them. Deferring to their wishes
and foregoing a lucrative commercial deal, the Labour government in Australia recently
passed legislation to protect the Koongarra land and include it in the national park. The UPA
44
government too may claim that its decision to prevent bauxite mining in the Niyamgiri hills
of Orissa reflects similar sensitivity. But nothing could be further from the truth.
In the Vedanta mining case, the government, through its recently filed affidavit, told the
Supreme Court that it has prohibited mining in Niyamgiri hills since it would affect the
Dongria Khondh tribal’s right to worship. Behind this apparently benign reasoning lurks the
crushing truth. The government has reduced the complex relationship between tribal
communities and their land to that of religious beliefs, ignoring important livelihood and
other cultural connections. This clever dilution will slowly pave the way for easy acquisition
of other tribal lands. The government also betrayed its true intentions when it stated in the
same affidavit that barring exceptional cases, it would go ahead with the forceful acquisition
of forest land without the consent of gram sabhas as mandated by the rules of the Forest
Rights Act. The tribal communities have been among the most vulnerable and exploited
groups in India. More than 40 per cent of total land acquired so far for mining and
development projects belongs to them. When the adivasis and landless poor took out a
mammoth procession last year demanding an end to forcible acquisition, the government
promised to implement a people-friendly policy. However, its recent actions are far from
reassuring. It is time to show genuine concern for the embattled tribal communities and
strengthen legal measures to protect their habitat.
The great American betrayal
It is well known that of all military operations, retreat is the most difficult and complicated.
A victorious march that takes a wrong turn can end in a stalemate, but a retreat gone wrong
will most likely turn into a disaster. These are the grim forebodings that come to mind when
we think of the forthcoming withdrawal of the American-led military forces from
Afghanistan.
Whistling in the dark
The Obama Administration is putting it out as though the withdrawal is a great achievement,
since it will pull it out of the quagmire that it has been stuck in ever since George Bush
declared a “global war on terror.” But the reality is shoddier — we are witnessing yet
another western retreat from Afghanistan, one that can have baleful consequences for others.
No matter what the Americans say or do officially, they are, essentially, whistling in the
dark.
The departure of the Americans and their allies — even though reports suggest that a small
force will remain — is a fraught moment for the Afghans, the United States and
neighbouring countries. Last month, representatives of India, Russia and China met in
Moscow. According to an official in the know, the discussion was businesslike and devoid of
the double-speak that often marks the occasion. The subject was Afghanistan. Faced with the
withdrawal of the American-led alliance from the country, the three regional powers are
scrambling to see how they can stabilise the situation. Each of them has interests there, and
none of these really clash.
But all three have an interest in ensuring that Afghanistan is stable and secure, witnesses
economic growth and reconstruction, and is integrated into the regional economy. India and
45
China are interested in ensuring that a war-ravaged Afghanistan does not once again become
a place where militants are able to establish training camps freely. Both have important
investments — India’s $ 2 billion are spread in development projects to promote Afghan
stability, while China’s $ 3 billion could aid in its prosperity. As for Russia, it is the primary
security provider to the Central Asian states and has an interest in preventing the return of a
situation of civil war.
It is important that the post-U.S. situation does not degenerate into an India-Pakistan
battlefield. The responsibility here lies heavier with New Delhi, since Pakistan can be trusted
to follow its baser instincts. Indeed, New Delhi’s strategy must be to prevent Islamabad from
trying to turn the Afghan clock back to the pre-American days. In this, it can fruitfully use
the dialogue processes it has established with Russia and China and, separately, the U.S.
Interestingly, in the recent India-China-Russia talks, the Chinese pointedly avoided
projecting Islamabad’s case and spoke for their own interests, just as the other interlocutors
did.
But for things to work, there is need for both Washington and Islamabad to confront the hard
realities. As for the U.S., writing in Foreign Policy , Vali Nasr wrote “America has not won
this war on the battlefield, nor has the country ended it at the negotiating table. America is
just washing its hands of this war.” According to Mr. Nasr, who worked in Richard
Holbrooke’s AfPak team in the U.S. State Department, President Obama’s attitude to the
American commitment in Afghanistan has been dictated by domestic politics — when it was
popular back home he backed it, and when it became unpopular, he pushed for terminating
the U.S. commitment. The American withdrawal, Mr. Nasr argues, is without any concern
for the fate of Afghanistan itself, or for the possible chaos that may follow in the region.
As for Pakistan, the belief among some key players, notably in the Army, that there can once
again be “Fateh” (Victory) in Kabul is delusional. Nothing in the ground situation suggests
that the writ of the Taliban will run across Afghanistan again, at least not the Taliban that
Pakistan so effectively aided and controlled in the 1990s. Indeed, the most unstable part of
the country will be the eastern region bordering Pakistan, whose own border with
Afghanistan is the site of an insurgency led by the Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP). If
anything, the TTP could be the principal beneficiary of the withdrawal, since it will find it
easier to get sanctuary and arms from the Taliban.
As of now, in the international process, we have the western countries trying to work out a
negotiated settlement that will bring elements of the Taliban into the governance of the
country, based on the constitution of the Loya Jirga of 2003. This Doha process has been a
slow-moving affair with the Taliban delegation in the Qatari capital twiddling its thumbs
most of the time. One problem is no one is really clear as to whether they are dealing with
the genuine representatives of Mullah Omar. The bigger problem is that both Islamabad and
the Taliban are merely hedging in their responses to the West and they are waiting to see
how precipitous the American retreat is, and what happens in the run-up to the Afghan
elections of 2014.
Even today, the Taliban’s supreme leader, Mullah Omar, and several of its top leaders live in
Pakistan. Though Islamabad says it is supporting the Doha process, there are doubts as to
whether or not Pakistan can actually “deliver” the Taliban to the U.S. and its allies. But there
46
can be few doubts about Islamabad’s ability to play the spoiler. This is what countries like
the U.S., India, Russia and China need to prevent through coordinated diplomacy. And
talking of elections, we have to see just how the election in Pakistan expected in a few
months will play out.
Since 2002, a set of new facts has been created on the ground. Foremost among these have
been the presence of an elected Afghan government and, now, a substantial Afghan National
Security Force. This will continue to get the support of the international community and the
ANSF will also have the ability to control the key parts of the country, as long as it gets
external support. On the other hand, the Taliban has suffered considerable attrition and the
relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have been conditioned by the emergence of the
Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) as well as the unhappy experience of the Taliban at the
hands of the ISI.
There is one important, and indeed overriding, consideration in the manner in which we deal
with Afghanistan. Both the U.S. and India need to recognise that they have far greater
security interests in Pakistan than in benighted Afghanistan. The “victor” of Kabul will
inherit a war-torn and ravaged country without the basics of schools, hospitals and
transportation systems. But should the Afghan situation catalyse the rise of Islamists in
Pakistan, India will be in for trouble. It does not need to be repeated that Pakistan is a
country with some industrial capacity, nuclear weapons and a powerful military. Its capacity
for mischief would go up by orders of magnitude, were the Islamists gathered by Hafiz
Muhammad Saeed in the Difa-e-Pakistan Council to become even more central to the
country’s politics.
AfPak to PakAf
For this reason, it is important to reverse the appellation AfPak to PakAf, at least mentally.
We need to ensure that a “solution” in Afghanistan has a collateral beneficial effect in
Pakistan. Or, at least, it should not affect Pakistan negatively. This is not, of course, a call for
pandering to Islamabad’s Afghan fantasies.
The presence of U.S.-led forces has played a stabilising role in Afghanistan. But now they
are going and leaving fear in their wake. The Afghans are petrified at the prospect of a
renewed civil war and the return of the Taliban, the Pakistanis, or at least the sensible ones,
are scared of the threat from the TTP. India, Russia and China are worried about the possible
spill-over effects of a civil war in the country. As for the U.S., its fear is that its retreat could,
through some missteps, become a rout.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
However else it is dressed up, the reality is that the world is about to witness a U.S. retreat
from Afghanistan, one that can have disastrous consequences for the region
Take Tamil Nadu out of Lanka policy
Domestic politics will tell on external affairs as much as fine principles and strategic
interests. In the context of the draft resolution on human rights violations in Sri Lanka now
47
before the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, India will have to factor in
domestic political exigencies alongside long-held principles and long-term interests while
firming up its stand. Last year, India voted for a resolution asking Sri Lanka to investigate
abuses by its military during the final phase of the war with the separatist LTTE. But it did
so after making efforts to water down the resolution. Though appearing to have been taken
under pressure from the DMK, India’s decision to vote against Sri Lanka last year was
intended to tell President Mahinda Rajapaksa that his failure to move towards a settlement of
the Tamil question could no longer be glossed over. If New Delhi went beyond its own norm
of not voting for country-specific resolutions, it also hoped this would be no more than a
one-time exception. However, with Sri Lanka having done precious little since last year’s
vote to address the rights abuses and push for reconciliation, India cannot be expected to
dilute its stand now.
Ever since the war ended and allegations of large-scale atrocities began to surface, it has
been obvious to friends of Sri Lanka that the only way Colombo can ride the tide of rights
charges is by delivering the political package it had itself once promised. Speaking on the
matter in the Rajya Sabha on Friday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh steered clear of
recent allegations that the Sri Lankan army killed LTTE supremo Prabakaran’s 12-year-old
son in cold blood and instead emphasised the need for Sri Lankan “national reconciliation.”
This was his way of showing the Rajapaksa government how it must deal with the upcoming
resolution. Dr. Singh’s dilemma is unenviable. His diplomats have told him India’s 2012
vote did not push Colombo to do the right thing as some had hoped. On the other hand,
Congress ally DMK wants a further toughening of stand. The party unwisely raised the
stakes last year by reviving the Tamil Eelam Supporters Organisation. TESO meetings have
so far stopped short of advocating a separate state for Sri Lankan Tamils but the outfit’s
revival has itself allowed hardliners in Sri Lanka to argue that the grant of rights to the
Tamils is a slippery slope to their secession. Difficult though this may sound, New Delhi
must craft a Lanka policy that includes a case for the island’s Tamils free of the opportunistic
imprint of Tamil Nadu’s competitive politics. The more its policies towards Colombo are
seen as the product of political pressure from the State, the less effective those policies will
be.
Indentured to investors
And so, the flip-flop over taxation of foreign institutional investment through Mauritius in
the Indian stock market continues. The latest episode was played out on Budget day when
the stock market crashed following a provision in the Finance Bill that sought to explain that
a certificate from Mauritius proving the residency of the investor was not sufficient to avoid
paying capital gains tax in India. The pressure on the government was such that Finance
Minister P. Chidambaram was forced to clarify the very next day that FIIs (foreign
institutional investors) were safe and that their scheme of taxation would remain unchanged.
And the Central Board of Direct Taxes issued a clarification on the new provision the same
day as a measure of reassurance. Ever since FIIs started using the Mauritius route in the early
1990s, there have been at least three occasions — the first one as early as in 1994 — when
the government sought to tax their capital gains only to beat a hasty retreat after the markets
reacted adversely. It was after one such episode in April 2000 that the government issued the
infamous Circular 789, which said that a tax residency certificate from Mauritius was
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sufficient for investors to claim benefit under the India-Mauritius Double Tax Avoidance
Agreement (DTAA).
The government’s nervousness is understandable but it has only itself to blame for the
embarrassment now. With a $75 billion deficit in the current account, there is little scope to
antagonise FIIs, whose money the government hopes to tap to fill a part of that gaping hole.
The last thing it wants is for foreign investors to pull out their money and set off a balance of
payments crisis. Yet, the episode only proves the tactless way in which this sensitive issue
has been addressed over the years. That FIIs should pay capital gains tax is unexceptionable
but the way to go about it is not through clarifications and provisions in the Finance Bill. The
proper way is to re-negotiate the DTAA and insert clauses that limit benefits based on certain
parameters, just as in the India-Singapore tax treaty. That tiny Mauritius is the biggest
foreign investor in India speaks volumes about how it has been misused as a conduit by
investors who reside elsewhere in the world. There are also concerns of “round tripping,”
where black money from India finds its way back into the market through Mauritius. The
two countries set up a working group in 2006 to address issues in the DTAA but it has made
little progress. The government should use this forum to re-negotiate the agreement and
importantly, phase out the benefit gradually. For some policy moves, timing is all-important.
This is one such.
Where bullet and ballot go hand in hand
The debate on the politics of the northeast has rested on the region’s alienation and
marginalisation from mainstream politics. The astounding number of organised insurgencies
in the region, party politics notwithstanding, gives credence to the idea that the northeast has
substantial grievances against the Indian state. Yet, in last month’s assembly elections in the
insurgency-hit States of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura, the incumbents were voted back
into power and voter turnout was unprecedentedly high — Tripura had a voter turnout of 93
per cent, followed by Meghalaya at 88 per cent and Nagaland at 83.2 per cent.
The States of the northeast in general have experienced much higher voter turnouts in both
Lok Sabha and Assembly elections compared to the national average for the past two
decades. Similarly, the incumbent governments in the northeast have been continuously
winning re-election bids. In Tripura, Manik Sarkar has won his fourth consecutive term,
while Neiphiu Rio in Nagaland has won for the third consecutive term. Mukul Sangma in
Meghalaya is entering his second term. Likewise, Pawan Chamling in Sikkim, Tarun Gogoi
in Assam, Okram Ibobi Singh in Manipur and Pu Lalthanhawla in Mizoram (intermittently)
have been Chief Ministers in their respective States for more than ten years now.
Some celebrate the high voter turnout and political stability (amidst relative peace) as an
indicator of northeastern people’s leap of faith in New Delhi’s politically accommodative
strategies. Others lament that the northeast has continued to be peripheral in India’s national
political imagination and therefore successful elections in the region should not be seen as an
extension of legitimacy for the Indian state.
How does one explain the existence of well-developed electoral politics in the northeast with
the robust presence of several insurgent groups? Do not high voter turnouts in these States
indicate voter preference for electoral democracy and a rejection of the violent path of
49
politics? We use the coincidence of elections in these three culturally, historically and
politically distinct States in the northeast to understand the linkages between party politics
and insurgency in the region.
Historically, the northeast has been thought of by New Delhi as a region riddled with
exceptions in three different areas — the people’s racial and tribal difference, their
geographic isolation which enabled a perceived non-participation in the national movement
and finally, the spread of Christianity as a dominant religion in Meghalaya, Mizoram and
Nagaland.
The Indian state has been hard-pressed to bring the region under its sovereign reach with the
consequence that electoral democracy has gone hand-in-hand with long-running and highly
coercive counterinsurgency campaigns in most States, some of which (like Mizoram and
Nagaland) date back to the 1950s.
Democracy works well
The democratic health of any country is not only indicated by robust voter turnouts, regular
elections, but also by the State’s ability to further the rights of people, deliver public goods
and maintain peace. The strong pro-incumbent trend coupled with high voter turnouts and
regular elections suggests that democracy works well in the northeast. Yet, we see the
persistence of insurgent groups in all three States under discussion. So we ask a related
question — why does the success of the democratic process not diminish these insurgencies?
We suggest that there are two distinct political processes at work in the northeast — the party
political process demonstrated through electoral politics and the non-party political process
found in the form of long-running insurgencies. Both these processes mutually support each
other. The non-party political process has evolved in reaction to grievances against the
Indian state and in synergy with electoral politics.
Party politics in the northeast was well-institutionalised by the 1970s, as were severe
counterinsurgency campaigns in Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur. The Congress began
recruiting local elites early on into their Pradesh Congress Committees.
Even though there were regular allegations of vote-buying by the Congress in some districts
of Nagaland, the Congress regularly came to power in most northeastern States until vibrant
student movements allowed for regional formations like the Asom Gana Parishad and the
Bodoland People’s Front (Assam), Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (in
Meghalaya) and the Naga People’s Front (Nagaland) to emerge. The local elites, propped up
by a national party, were brokers for stability and were meant to rein in the insurgencies, if
not crush them completely.
Over time, violent counterinsurgency gave way to ceasefires, negotiations and policies of
surrender. This allowed many northeastern insurgent groups to scale down their political
demands from outright secession to limited autonomy within the Union of India. This was
granted to them under the Sixth Schedule in the form of autonomous districts. The pacts with
insurgent groups have also led to former insurgents being incorporated into mainstream
50
politics. In this manner, many former insurgents like Bijoy Hrangkhwal in Tripura and Pu
Zoramthanga in Mizoram have been playing crucial political roles in the region.
However, as in some countries of Africa and Latin America, insurgencies in the northeast
have also acquired a momentum of their own. In Meghalaya, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur,
insurgent groups are often reported to act like mafias or cartels running extortion, drugs,
kidnapping and small arms rackets. The rents extracted from these illegal activities often
sustain the groups’ organisational needs and create incentives for new recruits. Massive
unemployment in the region makes insurgency a lucrative career amongst disaffected and
marginalised tribal youths within the northeast. On top of this, the State’s coercive
techniques add fuel to the fire. In the northeast, therefore, the insurgent groups persist despite
an established political process due to both factors — availability of alternative sources of
rent and the State’s strong-armed responses that aggravate disaffection.
Not happy with Centre’s politics
Finally, we note that the electorate in the northeast is still distinctly critical of politics
dictated by the Centre. This is primarily because of the patronising actions of national parties
(mainly the Congress) and the influence of local traditional institutions in the region. High
voter turnout in the northeast should not be mistaken for compliance with New Delhi. An
election in the northeast is seen by the Centre as an exercise in generating legitimacy, but it
may be seen differently in the region. In the northeast, assembly elections are contests to
control the politics of the State, as is the case in any other State in India.
(Vasundhara Sirnate and Rahul Verma are Ph.D students at the Travers Department of
Political Science, University of California, Berkeley)
The irony in the northeast is that armed insurgencies coexist with the enthusiasm for the
electoral process
Why the U.S. has not had an attack after 9/11
The debates on the proposed Rs.3,400 crore National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC)
have seen extreme views from both sides. Its protagonists claim that it is a “Batman” who
will swoop down on terrorists anywhere. Those opposing it feel it is a “Joker Villain” who
will trample upon State autonomy.
Doubts about the Home Ministry’s scheme surfaced when a senior official, who was in
office during Home Minister P. Chidambaram’s 2009 visit to the United States to study its
NCTC system, wrongly told a national daily in February 2012 that the American NCTC
worked under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). As a matter of fact, USNCTC,
which is under the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in the White House, is one of
three new instruments that has kept the American mainland comparatively safe from
terrorism since 9/11. By itself, the NCTC could not have achieved that. Although the CIA
has had a Counter Terrorism Centre (CTC) since 1986, it was felt by the 9/11 National
Commission that more coordinated intelligence efforts were needed.
Gilmore Commission
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The idea of a national office under the President for combating terrorism was mooted earlier
by a U.S. Congressional advisory panel known as the “Gilmore Commission,” which
commenced its work from 1999. Until 9/11, broad security intelligence integration in the
U.S. was done by the National Security Council’s three-tier “Inter-Agency Groups”. The
9/11 Commission suggested the creation of a Director, National Intelligence (DNI), and
under him a multi-agency NCTC. The “Intelligence Reform & Terrorism Prevention Act” of
2004 (PL 108-458) codified this scheme. The DNI’s charter was coordinating with the 16member national intelligence community, establishing priorities, resolving conflicts in
collection process and sharing intelligence.
Section 119 (d) (3) specified that the NCTC “shall not direct the execution of any resulting
operations.” This follows the traditional NSC philosophy of not directly conducting any
operations from the White House, after the disastrous Iran-Contra Affair of the 1980s. One
important component of NCTC is its Interagency Threat Assessment and Coordination
Group (ITACG), a team of State and local civil and law-enforcement officials posted by turn.
They examine intelligence which would be of interest to the local authorities. They also seek
what local “first responders” want to know.
It is thus clear that the charter envisaged in 2009 by our former Home Minister for our
NCTC with investigation and operations responsibility besides intelligence integration did
not exist in the U.S. model. That job is done by the DHS and the FBI with the help of State
and local authorities. The Deputy Director of the American NCTC, who was present during
an Oxford Counter-Terrorism Conference in October 2010, where I was one of the speakers,
told me that anything beyond intelligence integration would be unworkable. Former DNI
Mike McConnell had told the Council on Foreign Relations (June 29, 2007) that American
agencies collected one billion pieces of information daily.
Thus, the onerous task of intelligence integration and interpretation is kept separate from
operations. Even with this, the November 2009 CIA alert on the Nigerian “Underwear
Bomber” (Abdulmutallab) was not converted into a “no fly notification” and he was able to
attempt igniting a liquid bomb on 25 December 2009. How then could we expect our version
to succeed? Where is the need for special powers when the NIA, which is supposed to work
under NCTC, and which was specially created after 26/11, has been duly empowered under
the NIA Act in December 2008?
It would appear that our government wants to follow the U.K.’s version of “Joint Terrorism
Analyses Centre” (JTAC), which is under the MI-5 (IB’s counterpart). This might have been
based on Mr. Chidambaram’s 2010 visit to the United Kingdom. According to media reports,
the head of our proposed NCTC has to report to Director Intelligence Bureau (IB) whose
office, however, has no legal backing. But MI-5 has a legal basis under the Security Service
Act 1989 and it was also clarified that JTAC would be bound “by the provisions of the
Intelligence Services Act 1994 and subject to the oversight of the Parliament’s Intelligence
& Security Committee”.
‘Intelligence-led policing’
Terrorism is no longer an intelligence issue. It is inexorably tied to reviews by courts with
the concept of “Intelligence-led policing.” This has happened in several countries where the
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courts insisted on perusing the exact intelligence that led to the arrests. The U.K.’s
Intelligence & Security Committee’s special report dated May 6, 2009 (“Could 7/7 have
been prevented?”) gives details of the “Executive Liaison Group” (ELG) for sharing secret
MI-5 intelligence with the police. Those interested in further studying this should access the
court judgments in Maher Arar (2004-05- Canada), Izhar ul- Haque (New South Wales
Supreme Court-2007) and “Operation Crevice” (U.K.-2007). Are we sanguine that such an
eventuality will not arise in India and the IB would not be called to testify?
The other two instruments which have been successful in preventing attacks in the U.S. are
the FBI led multi-agency Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and 78 “Fusion Centers” under
the DHS, both involving non-police investigators, analysts and private persons. As many as
106 teams of JTTF with about 4,400 officers pursue intelligence leads from various
intelligence agencies and investigate. Each JTTF has representatives from federal agencies,
local police and other departments. New York JTTF has 500 investigators with only 130
from NYPD. They are coordinated by the National Joint Terrorism Task Force (NJTTF).
Such joint operations are beneficial in compensating for others’ laxity as in the case of the
Times Square bomber Shahzad. Couldn’t we have tried this out at least in New Delhi or
Centrally administered territories?
The objective of Fusion Centers is to channel NCTC intelligence to local “stakeholders,”
including private bodies. Fusion Centers “translate” possible national or international
happenings to the local authorities to make them aware of the possibility and nature of the
attack. The 26/11 Committee found that the Mumbai Police were not aware of even open
source information on two incidents, which if studied could have prepared them better . In
March 2007, there was a media report that two suspected LeT terrorists, arrested by Rajauri
Police, had revealed that their boat was intercepted off the Mumbai coast by the Coast Guard
but let off. The second case was an attack on Serena Hotel, Kabul, on January 14, 2008
similar to 26/11. That was the period when repeated Central alerts were being received
(although not date specific) on multiple targets, including hotels in Mumbai. During our
26/11 enquiry, we did not get an impression that our Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) and State
MACs worked like Fusion Centers.
The biggest achievement of the DHS is the nationwide alignment of anti-terrorist
methodology through constant dialogue among the “Homeland Security State and Local
Community” with about 1,000 key members from the States, the national capital and six
federal departments who collaborate through secure conference calls. If we have some such
arrangements, the constant bickering between our State police departments on terror cases
investigation could have been resolved.
Integrated network in U.K.
The U.K. also follows the concept of “integrated national network of dedicated policing
resources” through four Regional Counter-Terrorist Units (CTU), besides the London-based
Counter-Terrorism Command (CTC). A July 2011 report to Parliament said that more than
7,700 officers were on CT duty in the U.K. The regional Counter-Terrorist Intelligence Units
(CTIU) have a large presence of non-police officials. In addition, a senior officer designated
as Senior National Coordinator Counter-Terrorism (earlier known as National Coordinator
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Terrorist Investigations) coordinates investigations into terrorist crimes. Compare this with
ours where even within a State conflicting conclusions are arrived at by State police teams.
The hallmarks of effective terrorism prevention and CT operations as experienced by others
who have done better research are two-way intelligence flow through multi-agency
structures, local fusion units to interpret possible situations, joint operations and active
participation by the public as “stakeholders.” Setting up our present version of NCTC which
is neither Batman nor the Joker, but only an ornamental “Nutcracker” that might
occasionally dance, would not enhance public security. It will only end up in employment
opportunities for some chosen superannuated officials.
(The writer is a former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, and member of the two-man
High Level Committee appointed by Government of Maharashtra on 26/11
attacks. Vappala.balachandran@gmail.com)
Given the turf wars and lack of coordination among the police and intelligence agencies
in India, the National Counter Terrorism Centre will not enhance security
The infrastructure challenge
The crucial role infrastructure development plays in easing supply side constraints to
economic growth has been well recognised. In common with all its predecessors, the recent
budget accords priority to infrastructure finance for very valid reasons. The requirements are
huge: according to the 12th Plan, as much as Rs. 55,00,000 crore is required for investment
in infrastructure, with nearly 47 per cent coming from the private sector. Not just the scale
but certain special features of infrastructure finance make the task especially daunting.
Commercial banks, which seldom accept deposits for longer than three years, run the risk of
a balance-sheet mismatch in lending to infrastructure projects, which are of a long duration.
In his budget speech, the Finance Minister outlined a few steps that will enhance the
quantum of funds available through dedicated institutional arrangements. For instance, a few
more infrastructure debt funds, in addition to the four existing ones will be set up. These will
provide long-term, low-cost debt through innovative means for infrastructure projects. The
India Infrastructure Finance Corporation, in league with the Asian Development Bank, will
facilitate access to the bond market for long-term funds. The limit for tax free infrastructure
bonds has been increased to Rs.50,000 crore during fiscal 2013-14.Trading in debt
instruments through the stock markets has been made easier. A regulatory authority for the
road sector to take care of special challenges such as enhanced construction risk has been
announced.
In the broader area of reviving investment, the only fiscal measure of note in the budget has
been the introduction of an investment allowance of 15 per cent for a period of two years for
new, high value investment of a minimum of Rs.100 crore. Welcome as this is, it is doubtful
whether one measure alone is sufficient given the nature of the slowdown. According to the
Economic Survey, new investments have been drying up across sectors, partly as a
consequence of rising stalled projects that reduce the ability of firms to start new ones.
Almost 80 per cent of the stalled projects are in key infrastructure areas such as electricity,
roads and telecommunications. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is important to step up
the investment rate, which had declined to 35 per cent in 2011-12 from 36.8 per cent the
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previous year. Gross domestic savings have also fallen sharply to just over 30 per cent in
2011-12. The household sector, which contributes the most to domestic savings, must be
incentivised further. The budget’s specific proposals, including reviving the Rajiv Gandhi
Equity Savings Scheme, and the promise of inflation-linked bonds are hardly inspiring.
It’s no longer Christmas time
The tremors of an act of Italian perfidy instantly reached the shores of Kerala on Monday
night, where some impoverished fisherfolk have been waiting for justice for more than a
year. The Italians, ranging from consular officials to the Foreign Minister of Italy, who
visited the relatives of the victims of the shooting in February last year, had appeared
reasonable and sympathetic. In fact, there was even appreciation for the extent to which the
Italian Government was ready to go to rescue their marines. Its decision not to send the
marines back to India to stand trial by revoking the solemn guarantee given by the Italian
Government to the Supreme Court of India came as a rude shock. At a moment when the
believers are focused on Italy because of the papal election, the country’s reputation and
credibility have hit an all-time low.
Setting up confrontation
For most Europeans, to whom “Italian Justice” refers to the many failings of the judicial
system in the country, the action may not come as a surprise. There is barely any iconic case
in Italy that has given confidence to the people that justice has been done. Even after verdicts
have been given, “conspiracy theorizing” is known to be a national pastime. A country with
such a reputation for a cavalier attitude to law was not worthy of the trust bestowed on it by
the Supreme Court of India. The defiance of the Supreme Court on the one hand and
violation of basic diplomatic norms on the other have brought Italy to an unprecedented
confrontation with India.
As the Chief Minister of Kerala, Oommen Chandy, leaves for Delhi for urgent consultations,
at the top of his agenda will be the frustration and disappointment of the people of Kerala,
who had expected that justice would be done when the case was transferred to the Supreme
Court. Effigies of the marines were burnt on the streets of Thiruvananthapuram on Tuesday.
The demands made by the people of Kerala range from exploring possible legal avenues to
imprisoning the Italian Ambassador till the marines return. Kerala had specifically objected
to releasing the marines to travel to Italy to participate in the elections on the basis of a
guarantee from a diplomat, who enjoys immunity against the laws of the country. The High
Court of Kerala had allowed them to visit Italy for Christmas only after depositing Rs.6 crore
as guarantee. If the marines had not returned, at least the families of victims would have been
adequately compensated.
Steps before India
Italy had argued, right from the beginning, that the shooting took place in international
waters and that India had no jurisdiction in the case. But having faced court action in Kerala,
the Italians fought the battle in the courts and simultaneously pressed the government of
India at the highest level to resolve the issue diplomatically. They had sensed the impact of
public opinion on the courts in Kerala and tried to take the case out of the State. At one time,
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a compromise was worked out with the help of certain church groups, but the court rejected
it. It was with a sigh of relief that Italy greeted the decision by the Supreme Court of India to
move the case to Delhi and try it in a special court under the provision of maritime laws,
including the Law of the Sea. In the midst of all this, Italy even managed to get India to
announce the ratification of a treaty with Italy that allows citizens convicted of crimes in
either country to serve their prison sentences in their home country. Against this backdrop,
the resorting by Italy to violation of an explicit undertaking is all the more reprehensible.
The Prime Minister of India has termed the Italian action unacceptable and the strong protest
of India has been conveyed to the Italian Ambassador in Delhi. Italy will seek international
arbitration to appear reasonable, but will not agree to return the marines. It might also say
that the agreement reached by the previous Italian government was rejected by the Italian
electorate and would not be binding on the new government. The strongest action India can
take is to recall our Ambassador to Italy or to expel the Italian Ambassador or both, thus
creating a breach in the relationship. On the legal side, India can declare the marines
absconders from law, notify Interpol and seek their extradition, but the case will be at the
mercy of an Italian court. None of these measures will bring the Italian marines back, but in
diplomacy and international law, India has a major grievance against Italy, which will have
an adverse impact on bilateral relations. It is incumbent on Italy to make amends to save its
face internationally.
For the poor fishermen of Kerala, devastated by the shooting and killing of innocent people,
who could have hardly been suspected to be pirates and now been denied justice, the fine
points of the law or the present diplomatic row will not bring relief. The families had, at one
time, reportedly agreed to a compensation package and that should be settled if they still are
willing to accept it. For the rest, international law and diplomatic exchanges will continue
indefinitely. Italy stands guilty not only of causing the death of innocent people, but also of
breach of trust and violation of a solemn promise given in the name of a sovereign state.
India is left to face the shame of having been duped by another nation it trusted. Kerala will
remain aggrieved both with its own Central government as well as Italy that its efforts to
secure justice for its people were thwarted.
(T.P. Sreenivasan is a former Ambassador of India and Governor for India of the IAEA. He
is executive vice-chairman, Kerala State Higher Education Council and director general,
Kerala International Centre.)
Italy stands guilty not only of causing the death of innocent people, but also of violating a
solemn promise given in the name of a sovereign state
Removing cobwebs from the courtroom
I was recently in The Hague for the launch of the Global Leadership Organization of Women
(GLOW) project initiated by the International Association of Women Judges and supported
by the Government of Netherlands. The participants were women judges from the
international tribunals, three West African countries (Cameroon, Ghana and Nigeria) and
three South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Nepal and India).
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The subject was violence against women. Justice Albie Sachs of South Africa calls this
ubiquitous masculinity “the only truly non-racial institution in South Africa.” We may
without fear of dissent call it the only global institution which cuts across class, creed, colour
and countries. The difference may only be in its degrees and shades.
All the participants agreed that the question before us is not if it is bad but if it is unequal. On
a morality scale or a religious one, it could be decided that it is not bad, but on a equality
scale, judges can have no two opinions that it is unequal. We considered the issue from two
angles: how do we address the issue of violence, and do women judges make a difference?
We occupied a democratic space. All titles (Excellency, Honour, etc) were avoided. So were
all surnames. Removal of hierarchy is the first step towards equality. What I heard may have
been anecdotal, but it was universal.
A judge went to a faraway village on a legal awareness programme when she met a group of
women who had not stepped out of their homes. She said the women were astonished that
one of them could have travelled so far, and was so enabled.
Their movement was restrained not by choice but because that was the practice and “so it
was written and so it was done. “ It was apparent over and over again from the many voices
that religious and cultural practices promoted inequality. One judge said: “Custom cannot
make prisoners of women.”
The women judges of one country had picked out the bad practices in their courts and had
enacted a skit before all their colleagues. One judge was trying a case of a 14-year-old rape
complainant, and therefore it was a case of statutory rape. He had asked the Public
Prosecutor: “Look at her! Will you say she is only 14?” Such incidents were strung together
in the skit. Their colleagues were shocked and horror-stricken at the extreme gender
insensitivity and cried, “Such a horrible judge!” It must have been truly an educational
experience. It is necessary that all judges have an education programme. Without education
on the right to dignity and the right to equality of women, even a million fast track courts
will not deliver justice.
Mathura case
The women have to address implicit and explicit stereotyping. There are well-entrenched
notions of who is “a good woman.” In one of the courts the rape complainant was a bar maid
and it was decided that she had no right to complain since she “was any way bad.”
Remember our own Mathura [which happened nearly 30 years ago in Chandrapur district,
Maharashtra]? After being raped by constables, the girl did not get justice because it was
decided ‘that she was habituated to sex” and may have incited the policemen. Our
jurisprudence on rape is in fact divided into the pre-Mathura and post Mathura periods.
The woman does not have to be a complainant let alone a witness. Her credibility depends on
what the court thinks a good woman should be. In a case heard by two judges, one of whom
was a woman, the only eyewitness to the murder was a woman who on her way to a coffee
shop early in the morning. The defence counsel had begun his argument like this: “The only
eyewitness is this woman who had allegedly gone to have coffee in the morning. Will any
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respectable woman do it? Every woman will make the coffee herself and not step out in the
morning. This witness is unreliable and is a plant witness.”
It turned out, unfortunately for the defence, that the woman judge in this case had the habit
of having coffee from a coffee shop. We laughed, but it is no laughing matter.
There are two things here. First, what men think is proper woman-conduct. If both had been
men judges or “decent women” judges who don't go to a coffee shop to have coffee, that
witness may have been termed a liar. Then, even the due process of law must depend on men
and women whose minds are filled with myths and mental baggage of all shades and hence
the need for equality education.
The judges from the international tribunals shared their experiences and we found that those
courts had a pretrial procedure, far more resources and a firm witness protection programme
which the domestic courts lacked. We realised how important a witness-protection
programme is in the delivery of justice. But otherwise what was the same before both Courts
was the issue of dignity and the right to equality.
One of the International Special Courts had called forced marriages a crime against
humanity, and that it was really “conjugal enslavement.” They said that in conflict
conditions, rape is a war crime and referred to the famous Akayesu case decided by Navi
Pillai (U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights). Aggressors may sometimes deliberately
and forcibly make the women of a particular group pregnant only to change the ethnic
component of that group. I learnt that immediate medical assistance to a woman on whom
sexual violence was inflicted is crucial not only to get the best forensic evidence but also
because if a prophylactic AIDS medicine is given to her within 72 hours of exposure to an
infected man, she can avoid being infected. This was the theme, the refrain; that the woman
suffers only because of her gender.
We discussed marital rape at length and understood that too here the woman has all the cards
stacked against her because of socio/religious norms. The words “stigma,” “stain” and purity
reinforce the belief that it is better to be dead than raped, and that an act done to a woman
against her will can change the essence of her identity. All that the woman stands for, works
for and is loved for cannot be erased just because a man was violent to her. That would take
away her agency and reduce her to a zero. The woman judges accepted that it is not just male
judges who exhibit gender-unfairness, and woman judges too need equality training. But it
was clear that if a critical mass of women judges was created in every court then the compass
of gender jurisprudence will veer towards equality.
(Prabha Sridevan, a former Judge of the Madras High Court, is Chairperson, Intellectual
Property Appellate Board.)
Judges, both men and women, need equality training to prevent gender biases impacting
judgments
The long and short of open defecation
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You can learn a lot from measuring children’s height. How tall a child has grown by the time
she is a few years old is one of the most important indicators of her well-being. This is not
because height is important in itself, but because height reflects a child’s early-life health,
absorbed nutrition and experience of disease.
Because health problems that prevent children from growing tall also prevent them from
growing into healthy, productive, smart adults, height predicts adult mortality, economic
outcomes and cognitive achievement. The first few years of life have critical life-long
consequences. Physical or cognitive development that does not happen in these first years is
unlikely to be made up later.
So it is entirely appropriate that news reports in India frequently mention child stunting or
malnutrition. Indian children are among the shortest in the world. Such widespread stunting
is both an emergency for human welfare and a puzzle.
Why are Indian children so short? Stunting is often considered an indicator of
“malnutrition,” which sometimes suggests that the problem is that children don’t have
enough food. Although it is surely a tragedy that so many people in India are hungry, and it
is certainly the case that many families follow poor infant feeding practices, food appears to
be unable to explain away the puzzle of Indian stunting.
‘Asian enigma’
One difficult fact to explain is that children in India are shorter, on average, than children in
Africa, even though people are poorer, on average, in Africa. This surprising fact has been
called the “Asian enigma.” The enigma is not resolved by genetic differences between the
Indian population and others. Babies adopted very early in life from India into developing
countries grow much taller. Indeed, history is full of examples of populations that were
deemed genetically short but eventually grew as tall as any other when the environment
improved.
So, what input into child health and growth is especially poor in India? One answer that I
explore in a recent research paper is widespread open defecation, without using a toilet or
latrine. Faeces contain germs that, when released into the environment, make their way onto
children’s fingers and feet, into their food and water, and wherever flies take them. Exposure
to these germs not only gives children diarrhoea, but over the long term, also can cause
changes in the tissues of their intestines that prevent the absorption and use of nutrients in
food, even when the child does not seem sick.
More than half of all people in the world who defecate in the open live in India. According to
the 2011 Indian census, 53 per cent of households do not use any kind of toilet or latrine.
This essentially matches the 55 per cent found by the National Family Health Survey in
2005.
Open defecation is not so common elsewhere. The list of African countries with lower
percentage rates of open defecation than India includes Angola, Burundi, Cameroon,
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and more. In 2008, only 32
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per cent of Nigerians defecated in the open; in 2005, only 30 per cent of people in Zimbabwe
did. No country measured in the last 10 years has a higher rate of open defecation than Bihar.
Twelve per cent of all people worldwide who openly defecate live in Uttar Pradesh.
So, can high rates of open defecation in India statistically account for high rates of stunting?
Yes, according to data from the highly-regarded Demographic and Health Surveys, an
international effort to collect comparable health data in poor and middle-income countries.
International differences in open defecation can statistically account for over half of the
variation across countries in child height. Indeed, once open defecation is taken into
consideration, Indian stunting is not exceptional at all: Indian children are just about exactly
as short as would be expected given sanitation here and the international trend. In contrast,
although it is only one example, open defecation is much less common in China, where
children are much taller than in India.
Further analysis in the paper suggests that the association between child height and open
defecation is not merely due to some other coincidental factor. It is not accounted for by
GDP or differences in food availability, governance, female literacy, breastfeeding,
immunisation, or other forms of infrastructure such as availability of water or electrification.
Because changes over time within countries have an effect on height similar to the effect of
differences across countries, it is safe to conclude that the effect is not a coincidental
reflection of fixed genetic or cultural differences. I do not have space here to report all of the
details of the study, nor to properly acknowledge the many other scholars whose work I draw
upon; I hope interested readers will download the full paper at http://goo.gl/PFy43.
Double threat
Of course, poor sanitation is not the only threat to Indian children’s health, nor the only
cause of stunting. Sadly, height reflects many dimensions of inequality within India: caste,
birth order, women’s status. But evidence suggests that socially privileged and
disadvantaged children alike are shorter than they would be in the absence of open
defecation.
Indeed, the situation is even worse for Indian children than the simple percentage rate of
open defecation suggests. Living near neighbours who defecate outside is more threatening
than living in the same country as people who openly defecate but live far away. This means
that height is even more strongly associated with the density of open defecation: the average
number of people per square kilometre who do not use latrines. Thus, stunting among Indian
children is no surprise: they face a double threat of widespread open defecation and high
population density.
The importance of population density demonstrates a simple fact: Open defecation is
everybody’s problem. It is the quintessential “public bad” with negative spillover effects
even on households that do not practise it. Even the richest 2.5 per cent of children — all in
urban households with educated mothers and indoor toilets — are shorter, on average, than
healthy norms recommend. They do not openly defecate, but some of their neighbours do.
These privileged children are almost exactly as short as children in other countries who are
exposed to a similar amount of nearby open defecation.
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If open defecation indeed causes stunting in India, then sanitation reflects an emergency not
only for health, but also for the economy. After all, stunted children grow into less
productive adults.
It is time for communities, leaders, and organisations throughout India to make eliminating
open defecation a top priority. This means much more than merely building latrines; it means
achieving widespread latrine use. Latrines only make people healthier if they are used for
defecation. They do not if they are used to store tools or grain, or provide homes for the
family goats, or are taken apart for their building materials. Any response to open defecation
must take seriously the thousands of publicly funded latrines that sit unused (at least as
toilets) in rural India. Perhaps surprisingly, giving people latrines is not enough.
Ending a behaviour as widespread as open defecation is an immense task. To its considerable
credit, the Indian government has committed itself to the work, and has been increasing
funding for sanitation. Such a big job will depend on the collaboration of many people, and
the solutions that work in different places may prove complex. The assistant responsible for
rural sanitation at your local Block Development Office may well have one of the most
important jobs in India. Any progress he makes could be a step towards taller children —
who become healthier adults and a more productive workforce.
(Dean Spears is an economics PhD candidate at Princeton University and visiting
researcher at the Delhi School of Economics.)
There is statistical data to show that the height of Indian children is correlated to their and
their neighbourhood’s access to toilets
Putting Bharat on an equal footing with India
British Prime Minister David Cameron was here recently to drum up trade between his
country and India. The visit made big news in the media. A little-covered part of the visit
was Mr. Cameron taking time to focus on the other India, the “Bharat”, and what India
would want to look like in 2030.
Mr. Cameron is co-chair, along with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and
Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, of a 27-member High Level Panel of Eminent
Persons (HLP) to make “recommendations regarding the vision and shape of a post-2015
development agenda”. The Panel was set up by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Kimoon and has met three times till now, most recently in Monrovia on February 1. The Panel
will present its recommendations at the end of May 2013.
The inter-governmental process of negotiating and adopting new goals will start with the
U.N. General Assembly in September 2013 and will conclude by 2015.
India, home to a large segment of humanity and quite far from meeting the present
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), will have a key role to play in the agreement over
a relevant development framework for post-2015. External Affairs Minister Salman
Khurshid recently made a statement on what the new framework might look like. India’s
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views are still evolving and the public debate on the likely new framework has gained
prominence only in recent months.
Prime Minister David Cameron spoke of the MDGs being a fantastic innovation that got the
world to focus on really important things. With three years to go before the 2015 deadline we
can’t lose momentum. After 2015 we need to finish the job and eradicate extreme poverty.
This is the most urgent moral problem facing the world today.
The present goals set out in 2000 helped nations focus on addressing poverty but they were
adopted with very little consultation. This time around, inclusive broad-based consultations
have started in over 100 countries to discuss the new goals. Based on extensive civil society
consultations in India, it is becoming clear that the new goals would need to take into
account a few key principles:
Universal, rights-based goals: A universal set of goals based on principles of human rights
should be applicable to all countries. The world is no longer divided into north-south, or
east-west. The world order has moved from a G7 world to a G20 world, with the poor living
largely in middle-income rather than low-income countries and with aid no longer being the
main way out of poverty.
In such a world, we cannot have one set of goals for the developing world and another one
for the developed world, whose only responsibility in the old world order was to provide aid.
We need to ensure that we live in a “more equal” and sustainable world, adopting principles
of equity and common good but with differentiated responsibilities to attain that.
Tackling social exclusion: Eradication of extreme poverty would mean focusing on the onethird of world’s people with daily income below $1.25 who live in India. However, we need
sharper focus on the bottom 20 per cent of the population and at the root causes of poverty
and inequality. In India, and elsewhere, this group would consist of groups socially excluded
because of discrimination on the basis of caste, religion, ethnicity, or gender. This needs to
be tackled at the policy level, rather than just focusing on secular economic growth as the
sole means to eliminate poverty.
Combating inequality: We also need to look at inequality and the relationship between the
rich and the poor — say the ratio between the income and wealth of the top 20 per cent and
the bottom 20 per cent of the population. This would focus attention on correcting and
adjusting the pattern of development during the last decade that has led to widening
inequalities worldwide, with the rich enjoying a disproportionate share of the gains from
development, and very slow progress in poverty reduction.
Promoting gender equality and women’s rights: We need much stronger emphasis on
gender equality compared to the last round of MDGs. A strong goal — building on the
commitments already made under the Beijing Platform in 1995 and the Convention on the
Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (Cedaw) — ensuring women’s
economic, social and political rights is essential. This could be translated into targets on
equal ownership of property, including land, a violence-free life, and equitable representation
in law-making bodies.
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Combining inclusiveness and sustainability: The Rio+20 Conference in June 2012
established an Open Working Group of 30 members to propose “sustainable development
goals” (SDGs) for presentation to the U.N. General Assembly. The new MDGs and the
SDGs need to be combined into one set of goals that have both inclusiveness and
sustainability.
Introducing monitoring and accountability: The current MDGs have no monitoring
mechanism, eliminating accountability. Once the new goals are adopted, each country needs
to set up a tripartite mechanism — including the government, civil society, and the private
sector — to monitor progress in the attainment of the new MDGs.
(Nisha Agrawal is CEO, Oxfam India.)
Restructuring of the Millennium Development Goals for the post-2015 phase has to
address the problems of inequality and exclusion
Too early to cheer on HIV
It is too early to celebrate the recent news of a breakthrough in the treatment of a baby
infected with HIV. Despite the passage of a year after treatment for HIV was stopped and the
viral load test returning negative results even at age 29 days, the Mississippi, U.S. baby
cannot be described as being cured of HIV. Only a “functional cure” has been achieved at
this point in time, which means the virus has not been able to rebound and replicate, and its
activity remains undetectable even after treatment has been stopped. Traces of HIV DNA,
incapable of replication, were found when last tested at age 26 months. At that time, only
four copies of HIV DNA were detected per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells. This
was eight-fold fewer than what was seen two months earlier, according to the abstract by
Deborah Persaud, the lead author from the Johns Hopkins Children’s Center. The baby was
given a cocktail of three antiretroviral drugs right from 30 hours of age and the treatment was
continued till age 18 months. Now aged two-and-a-half years and being off treatment for the
past one year, there are no signs of viral rebound. One plausible reason is that the early start
of full-fledged treatment might have given insufficient time for the virus to form hideouts
from where it could bounce back when treatment was stopped.
But there is good reason to be cautious interpreting the results. The first and biggest
challenge that the researchers face is to conclusively prove that the baby was indeed infected
with HIV. Also, the baby has to be followed-up for a longer time to assess the outcome of
the treatment, as one year is too short a time to call the experiment a success. The lone case
can serve as proof of concept to treat high-risk infants born to HIV-positive women if it
finally emerges that the baby was truly infected with HIV, and early and aggressive
intervention had brought about the functional cure. The next step will be to repeat it in other
high-risk newborns to see if replicable and positive outcomes emerge. Vertical transmission
accounts for up to 30 per cent of infection in children. But the risk can be cut to less than two
per cent when protocols to prevent vertical transmission are adopted and strictly adhered to.
For instance, in the U.S., where prenatal care to prevent vertical transmission is in place,
fewer than 200 infants are born every year with the infection. Over 300,000 children are born
HIV positive globally every year. So the priority should be to first target the low-hanging
fruit by ensuring that simple measures to prevent infection are in place everywhere.
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New glitter on the golden pagodas
The first and historic congress of the National League for Democracy has just ended in
Yangon. Expectedly, Aung San Suu Kyi was re-elected its Chairperson. Together with seven
other Indians — all keen students of Myanmar affairs — I met Ms Suu Kyi in Naypyitaw for
an hour-long discussion the day before the congress began.
The week-long stay in Myanmar was an invaluable opportunity to study the web of
complexities that defines the country’s politics and foreign policy. Our visit covered
Yangon, Naypyitaw and Mandalay. We interacted with academics, political leaders, and
representatives of business, media and civil society. We participated in a seminar, a
collaboration between Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Affairs (MISIS) and
the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA). Mutual openness and cordiality helped us
explore issues that were uppermost in our mind.
I was returning to Myanmar after a gap of nearly two years, a perfect context to appraise the
journey of ‘new Myanmar’ following its transition from authoritarianism to a kind of
democracy in March 2011. I had four main questions; the journey helped me discover their
answers.
Reform — story so far
After five decades of military rule — ‘the wasted years’ as an old journalist friend depicted
them — the country has made substantive progress in executing its reform strategy. The plan
may have been conceived by the Army, but in its implementation President Thein Sein has
played the key role. In this, he has been helped by several factors: reconciliation with Ms
Suu Kyi, assertiveness of Parliament led largely by Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, invisible
support extended by the Army and synergy with other political forces. Mr. Thein Sein has
moved forward on all three planks of reform — political, economic and administrative,
achieving more progress than anyone imagined two years ago.
But the journey ahead is fraught with uncertainty and even dangers. Challenges facing the
nation include the perennial ethnic problem that leaders starting from Aung San, ‘the father
of the nation,’ had tried to address. Success eluded his successors because, unlike him, they
favoured the Burman majority’s interests over those of ethnic minority groups. At our
meeting marked by exceptional warmth and openness, Ms Suu Kyi told us that she was
waiting for ‘an invitation’ from the government in order to contribute to the current dialogue
process. Considering that armed conflict between the Army and Kachins and MuslimBuddhist clashes in Rakhine state have already extracted a heavy price, the government’s
failure to involve all sides, especially the country’s most popular and charismatic leader,
meant only one thing: politics was trumping national interests.
Although the Constitution bars her from becoming President (as she had a foreign national as
spouse), no issue excites greater interest in Burma today than this: will Ms Suu Kyi become
the President in 2015 when elections are next due? All those attending or watching the party
seemed anxious for a credible answer. Some claimed that a landslide for the NLD was
inevitable if elections were free and fair, while others observed that the ruling party, USDP,
would get “at least 50 per cent.” More than one interlocutor articulated a common belief that
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Myanmar should emulate the ‘Sonia Gandhi model’ that is, Ms Suu Kyi should be content as
party chief and find a leader acceptable to her and the Army as the next President. Who
could that be: President Thein Sein, Speaker Shwe Mann or a dark horse?
Ms Suu Kyi appeared to have become more pragmatic and practical, showing that her
immediate priority is to win over the mainstream Burman constituency and to reduce the
Army’s negativity towards her. While attempting this, she also seemed anxious to retain the
confidence of ethnic groups, evidently a tough balancing act. We asked her if “political
support was building up” for her advocacy of constitutional reform that inter alia might
remove the legal constraint on seeking the top office. She pointed to a recent remark by Mr.
Thein Sein that “if people want,” constitutional reform could be considered. As of now, the
presidency seemed somewhat distant but she was set to play an increasingly central role in
politics.
Engaging the world
The Burmese are happy that their country, isolated earlier, is now the object of
unprecedented international attention. Sanctions have been relaxed. Economic reform
measures have been producing results gradually. A construction boom is visible; foreign cars
are easy to import; Yangon roads have never been so congested. New embassies are opening
up. Foreign delegations are galore. At the famed Karaweik Palace floating restaurant in
Yangon, we watched classical Burmese dances, along with a large number of Japanese and
Korean businessmen. The quality of the cuisine has improved vastly.
In our dialogue on strategic issues, Burma’s narrative remained partially unchanged, that it
was a country surrounded by two giant neighbours — China and India, and Yangon desired
friendly relations with both. But more freedom was visible now. Transcending the
conventional narrative, experts asserted that they felt anxiety about Myanmar’s relations with
China but not over its relations with India. Nonetheless, the Chinese footprint, especially in
the business sector, was prominent. A businessman in Mandalay told us that China was ‘just
beyond those hills’ and consequently he could secure needed goods within a day or two,
whereas imports from India took much longer. Proximity to China coexisted with growing
disquiet over Burma’s dependency. Yet, there was a new recognition that the country had
other options, other suitors. Delegations from western countries have generally been in
exploratory mode even as Japanese, South Korean and Thai business houses are busy
securing new linkages and contracts.
Deputy Foreign Minister Zin Yaw observed that 2014 would truly be the ASEAN year as
Myanmar becomes Chair and hosts two ASEAN summits and ‘a mini summit’ of 18 foreign
ministers of member-states of East Asian Summit. So, regional and international interest in
Myanmar is sure to grow rather than decline.
India, in years ahead
Reconciliation between the government and Ms Suu Kyi, though still imperfect, has paved
the way for closer India-Myanmar relations. The period since October 2011, which
witnessed numerous VIP visits including two visits by Mr. Thein Sein, the historic visit of
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the important visit of Ms Suu Kyi, has proved to be
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productive for bilateral relations. For the momentum to be sustained, however, India Inc
needs to adopt a more forward-looking mindset. New opportunities are coming up even as
the competition heats up. The challenge is to sustain creative endeavours. The Indian
business community, as Ms Suu Kyi conveyed to us, should be respectful of the Burmese
sense of dignity and serve as ‘responsible’ investors. They should offer capital, technology,
capacity-building and products in accordance with Myanmar’s needs rather than as an
imposition from outside.
Governments and strategic communities have been making their contribution to relationshipbuilding. It is time for India’s corporate leaders to leverage new possibilities that may not
appear again.
(A former ambassador to Myanmar, the author is Director General of ICWA. The article
reflects his personal views)
After five decades of military rule, Myanmar needs to overcome many challenges,
including the ethnic issue, in its journey of political reforms
Giving Panthera tigris a chance
India was once the only home to the world’s “big four” cats — the lion, tiger, cheetah and
leopard. It also played host to over 13 per cent of global avian species, an impressive number
of mammalians and an enviable presence of Lepidopterans (a large order of insects that
includes moths and butterflies).
However, once the Mughals, the British bureaucracy and India’s feudal aristocracy
established the hunting of animals to be the ultimate symbol of manhood and nobility, it was
only a matter of time before several species became extinct. The earliest recorded extinction
was that of the Himalayan Mountain Quail in 1876, followed by the cheetah, when the Rajah
of Korwai in northern Madhya Pradesh shot the last three (a mother and her two cubs) on
November 24, 1947. Today, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature,
nearly 84 bird species are endangered while among mammals, the tiger is teetering on the
brink of extinction.
The common Indian is least concerned whether the tiger survives or perishes. Nor does he
care about the consequences of global warming or the diminishing green gene pool and
biodiversity, which are the key to human survival. It is elected governments that have to be
bothered about this but they seem equally untouched. The one person who had foreseen this
apathy by both the common man and the politician in India towards natural habitats in
general and our wildlife in particular, was Field Marshal Archibald Percival Wavell, the
Viceroy of India.
In his Personal Journal , after dinner with the famous Jim Corbett in December 1946, he
once wrote: “His ( sic; Jim Corbett) talk on tigers and jungle life is of extraordinary interest
and wish I could have had more of it. He has rather pessimistic views on the future of
tigers....and that in many parts of India, tigers will become extinct in the next 10 to 15
years……his Chief reason is that Indian politicians are no sportsmen and tigers have no
votes, while the right to gun licence will go with a vote.”
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Revival audit
In our post-Independence milieu, what a damning and a prophetic bit of crystal-gazing that
was. By 1963, an international gathering of conservationists accepted Indian naturalist E.P.
Gee’s conservative estimate that India had only about 4,000 surviving tigers. A decade later,
most experts believed that the tiger had crossed the threshold of a viable population comfortzone and set about encouraging and monetarily supporting WWF International to launch
“Project Tiger.” As many as 2,000 delegates from 177 nations are gathered in Bangkok since
March 3 under the aegis of CITES to help stamp out international trade in endangered
species, their main focus understandably being on the tiger. A lot has been spoken at the
gathering and more will appear in print but that is as far as the world community will go.
Having said that and admitting that India boasts of being home to about 70 per cent of
surviving tigers in the world, do I have a feasible plan of action for the species assured
survival?
Yes, and here it goes:
(a) through an ordinance, place all tiger reserves and contiguous sanctuaries and
protected/notified forests in the country, together with all their current administrative assets
and liabilities, under the existing National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) for a
decade. Offset the loss of revenue to States arising from this ordinance for the period of its
operation, through special budgetary allocations.
(b) concurrently, bring the NTCA under the Prime Minister’s Office.
(c) hold an annual “tiger revival audit” by an independent body of three to five experts,
drawn from within and outside the country. Induct 30 per cent new members to the audit
team each year and retire an equal number from the previous team.
(d) the Prime Minister must take the annual audit findings as fresh inputs, for mandatory
implementation and to keep Parliament informed.
(e) place a moratorium on de-notifications and or alteration of boundaries of existing
national parks, tiger reserves, wildlife sanctuaries and notified forests both by Parliament and
by State legislatures, through the same ordinance.
(f) enact stringent legislation to deal with poaching
(g) create a “save the tiger caucus” (in the phraseology and practice of the U.S. Capitol Hill)
in both Houses of Parliament and State Legislatures, to regularly monitor results and
progress on recommendations of the revival audit and insist on midcourse correction when
circumstances so demand.
Emperor Ashoka chose the Asiatic Lion as the symbol of India’s nationhood. Twenty-two
centuries later, the Democratic Republic of India placed the Royal Bengal Tiger on a similar
pedestal as the national animal. Let us arise to save both.
Let all Indians be fired up by the optimism of Dame Jane Goodall, the British primatologist,
ethologist, anthropologist, and U.N. Messenger of Peace, who, when asked by an interviewer
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in September 2009 if she believed there was “hope for animals and their world,” said: “At
one time (the 1980s) there were just 12 Californian Condors [the largest North American
land bird and on the verge of extinction] in the wild and one in captivity. Now there are 300.
This bird would have gone but for a small group of people who would not give up. As long
as we have people like that, there’s hope for the future.” That spirit alone can assure the
tiger’s passage into the 22nd century.
(Baljit Singh is a retired Lieutenant General of the Indian Army.)
A seven-point plan that can bring the big cat back from the brink of extinction
Stop acid violence
The strong correlation between acid attacks on women and the presence of a large number of
industries using this hazardous material in some Asian countries underscores the need for
strict regulation of production, storage, distribution and sale of these chemicals. India has
neither comprehensive data on the number of acid attacks nor regulatory procedures worthy
of mention. When a question was asked in Parliament not long ago about regulation of acid
sale, the Minister of State for Home Affairs gave the unhelpful reply that since the chemical
industry had been deregulated there was no scope for statutory control over acid distribution.
Moreover, it would adversely affect the growth of the industry. Advocating laissez faire in
the face of rising attacks on women over a whole decade is grossly insensitive. During the
same period, Bangladesh, a country with similar problems, responded with remarkable
concern by passing a law that introduced licensing of distribution and sale of acid.
Unsurprisingly, it has witnessed a downward trend in attacks. The penal provisions against
perpetrators in India have now been strengthened but the question of eliminating easy access
to acid has received little attention. Among States, Tamil Nadu has announced that it will
legislate to control sale, which is welcome.
Concentrated acid sold in India is relatively cheap and can be accessed through a variety of
informal sector users. It is this ease of access that is spurring attacks. A system of licensing
all transactions involving acid must therefore be introduced quickly. This would undoubtedly
cover a wide range of users, including garment dyeing, rubber curing, leather, and gold
purification, but the horrific suffering of acid attack victims makes some form of regulation
essential. The new measures should also cover household cleaning acid, which is implicated
in some attacks. The retail sale of this off-the-shelf chemical, which is sometimes also used
in suicide attempts, can safely be banned because less corrosive alternatives are available.
For effective enforcement, though, it is essential to institute a document trail from production
to point of sale. This can be done even online, if suitable applicant identification is available.
Since concentrated acid is now used as a weapon, its possession without documents should
be made an offence. Evidently, combating these cruel attacks requires a combination of
strong penal laws, an effective scheme of treatment, relief and rehabilitation, and curbing of
easy access to the chemical. India has a deplorable record on all three fronts. It owes a duty
to all women to eliminate the scourge.
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