John F. Kennedy University College of Undergraduate Studies COR 3303 Statistics for the Social Sciences Fall 2015 College Mission: Our mission is to provide high quality innovative learning opportunities that integrate theory, practice, and life experience in a synergistic collegiate environment. Program Mission: The Liberal Studies program strives to prepare students to think critically and holistically, to live creatively and ethically, and to work responsibly and sustainably in a dynamic global society. Instructor: Phone: Vahid Keyhani 415-797-7015 Email: vkeyhani@jfku.edu vkeyhani@gmail.com (preferred way of contact) Class Starts 10/05/2015 Units: 4 Class Format: Hybrid [On-ground and Online] Online and also in-class meetings on Wednesdays on the following dates and time, 10/7, 11/4, 12/16. 7:15pm - 10:00pm Class Times: Any change will be announced, please see class announcements. First on-ground session is on Wednesday 10/7@ 7:15 pm and additional on-ground or synchronous blackboard sessions will be conducted on announced time and dates. Course Description: This course provides a brief introduction to various forms of statistical methods used in psychology, mental health, education, and the social sciences. Emphasis is placed on the interpretation of data and the understanding of recently published materials and research studies. In this course, our approach will be to have students be "wise and informed consumers" of statistics and its applications to human experiences and the social sciences. We will emphasize having students be better consumers of information by showing the role of statistics in many aspects of psychology, technology, and science, as well as in everyday applications. The course will be using real examples and case studies to build an understanding of the core fundamentals and the key ideas/concepts within statistics that can be applied to a variety of subject areas drawing from the students' life experiences, existing texts, and journal articles. We will be emphasizing the "use" of statistics in human experiences and will focus on the computation of statistics along with the methods of statistical data analysis. Additionally, the course will focus on helping students to become better critical thinkers, systematic planners, and decision makers, which would have applicability in venues such as: (a) working in human services, (b) starting a new business, (c) planning for their financial future, or (d) just making wise decisions at the supermarket. Students will extend their analysis and interpretation of data learned in Statistics and the Social Sciences by applying the tools and. In this one-unit portion of the course, our approach will be to have students use real data to understand statistical concepts and techniques. Program Learning Outcomes: Students completing the BA degree program in Liberal Studies are expected to demonstrate: 1. Proficiency in critical and creative thinking and writing 2. Proficiency in information literacy and conducting academic research 3. Proficiency in understanding global and multicultural perspectives on ideas, persons, events, and trends. 4. Proficiency in comparing disciplinary, interdisciplinary, trans disciplinary, and holistic perspectives. 5. Proficiency in integrating and applying academic learning to complex problems in innovative, effective, and sustainable ways 6. Proficiency in collaborating and communicating effectively to solve academic and social problems COR3303 addresses program outcomes number 1,2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 above. Course Learning Outcomes: At the completion of the course, students will be able to: 1. Explain the strategies and approaches used in statistics to understand and make decisions in our daily life and human experiences 2. Describe the functions of statistics as they translate into many aspects of psychology, technology, and science, as well as in everyday life 3. Summarize the use of statistics within political, economic, sociological, psychological, ecological, and historical perspectives relevant to the individual, family, work, and community venues 4. Highlight strategies that facilitate and help to increase their skills in being "wise and informed consumers" and "performers" of statistics 5. Define key statistical concepts and methods and the importance of these concepts and methods and to enable better critical thinking, systematic planning, and decision making 6. Delineate the major techniques, tools and models for analyzing information and data using real examples and case studies to build an understanding of the core fundamentals of statistics and the key ideas/concepts within statistics 7. Demonstrate an understanding of the use of the Statistical Package 8. Demonstrate proficiency in the use of Statistical tools and methodologies to compute descriptive and inferential statistics 9. Highlight strategies for data analysis and decision-making using different statistical packages Required Texts: Nolan, S. A., & Heinzen, T. E. (2014). Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences. New York: Worth Publishers. 3rd edition Readings: Course material will be made available via links in this document or on myjfku through a combination of available electronic and internet resources, students can research their needed information at JFKU Library. Research databases for faculty and students will include journal articles, ebooks, reference materials, images, links to recommended Internet sources and other resources via search engines. Other equipment / material requirements: Internet capable PC or Mac with MS Office Suite. Teaching Methodology: I will facilitate class discussions and other required activities. I will contribute as a resource person to all members of the class. The success of this course is contingent to active participation of all students in a collaborative and engaging manner. Grading: Online Participation: 55% [All weeks-150 word count requirement for your main response and 100 word participation response -Weeks 1 through 11] Mid-Term Exam: 20% [Second in-class session] Final Exam: 25% [Last in-class session] Grading Scale A+ Exceptional A Exceptional A- Exceptional B+ Above average B Above average 97-100 93-96 90-92 87-89 83-86 BC+ C CD F Above average Average Average Below average but passing1 Below average but passing2 Failure 80-82 77-79 73-76 70-72 65-69 < 65 Bloom’s Taxonomy Levels: 1- Knowledge 2- Comprehension 3- Analysis 4- Application 5- Synthesis 6- Evaluation A = Truly superior work. The student has a firm grasp of the subject matter and demonstrates mastery through written work and in-class responses. The student makes connections among topics and issues areas and is able to link broad theoretical issues with micro-level processes. Written work (papers and written portions of exams) fulfills all necessary requirements and is clearly and properly written. In-class and on-line participation is frequent and engages other classmates, demonstrating a high degree of preparation (careful reading and reflection). B = Good work. The student has a good grasp of the subject matter but may demonstrate some weaknesses or gaps in understanding. The student makes connections among a majority of topics and issue areas. Written work meets acceptable standards and is generally clear and proper. The student participates in class and online often, demonstrating a high-moderate degree of preparation. C = Satisfactory work. The student has an adequate grasp of the subject matter but may not understand connections between topics (sees issues in isolation). Written work fulfills basic requirements, but displays weaknesses in content and style. The student demonstrates only adequate preparation for class (does not display careful reading and/or reflection); participates moderately in class and online. Based on the 2012 JFK University Catalog “Grades of C- and D are not acceptable in an undergraduate major, but can be applied toward a baccalaureate degree. An undergraduate student must achieve a cumulative grade-point average (GPA) of 2.0 to earn a degree. A cumulative GPA below 2.0 will place a student on academic probation.” (11). 2 Ibid 1 D = Less than satisfactory work. The student demonstrates deficiencies in grasping the subject matter. Written work does not meet necessary requirements and is not clear or understandable. The student does not prepare for class and rarely participates (in-class, or does not complete the online participation requirements). F = Failure to meet requirements of the course with even marginal competence. Course Schedule: *Assigned readings may change* Week 1 Introduction to Statistics and research design– Practical Use of Statistics in Life, Daily Living, and Research What Is/Are Statistics? Everyday Two Branches of Statistics: Descriptive statistics/inferential statistics. Distinguishing a sample from a population Sampling – How Do We Determine the Unemployment Rate in the United States? Types of Statistical Studies – How Does Neilsen Determine TV Viewing? Should You Believe a Statistical Study? -- Did You Believe in the Presidential Poll Ratings for the Candidates? Variables: Transforming Observations into Numbers/variables Types of Research Design and Statistics: hypothesis testing Frequency distributions Frequency tables Grouped frequency tables Histograms Shapes of distributions Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 1 and 2: An Introduction to Statistics and Research and frequency Distributions Design: The Basic Elements of Statistical Reasoning Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Please answer the following questions from your Chapter Exercises ANY five EVEN Questions Week 2 Application of Visual Displays of Data in Statistics Frequency Tables – How Can We Best Describe Our In-Class Quiz Results? Portraying Distributions of Data – How Can We Best Display the Declining Death Rates in the United States? Use of Graphics in the Media – Should I Invest in Stocks, Bonds, or Gold? Some Cautionary Guidelines about Graphics Some common types of graphs Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 3: Visual Displays of Data: Graphs That Tell a Story Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to ANY FIVE of the Chapter EVEN Exercises. Week 3. Sampling and Probabilities, Understanding Randomness and the Meaning of Statistical Proof Answer this questions while reading the chapter Why Are Statisticians Stingy? What Does It Mean for Having an Even Chance of Being Selected? What is Statistical Significance? What is the Role of Probability in Statistics? Understanding the Basics of Probability Dealing with Large and Small Numbers in Probabilities Ideas of Risk and Life Expectancies – Using Heuristics to Assess Risks Combining Probabilities – How Combining Probabilities Explains Why I Am Usually Late to Large Gatherings with My Family Type I and Type II Errors in Statistics Individual Statistical Exercise Focusing on Law: Is DNA Fingerprinting Reliable? – Submit by eCollege Drop Box or email Attachment Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 5: Probabilities and Research: The Risks and Rewards of Scientific Sampling Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to ANY FIVE of the Chapter Review Exercises Week 4 Using Measurement in Statistics and Everyday Reasoning and Organized Thinking; Inspecting and Describing Data-Consider the followings: Different Types of Data and Levels of Measurement – How Much Difference Separated a Gold Medal Winner from a Silver Medal Winner at the Beijing Olympics? Measurement of Central Tendency and Variability What Is Average? Can We Calculate "Average" Household Income and Have Different Numbers for the Same Group of Households? What Do We Mean by the Shape of the Distribution? Measuring Variation in a Group -- Would You Expect Variation in Running Times in the Olympic Marathon Compared to Running Times in the Boston Marathon? Statistical Paradoxes – Does a Positive Mammogram Mean Cancer? Dealing with Errors of Measurement – Does the Census Measure the True Population? In-Class Statistical Exercise Focusing on the Stock Market: What's "Average" About the Dow Jones Averages? Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 4: Central Tendencies and Variability Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your EVEN answers to ANY FIVE of the Chapter Exercises Week 5 /6 Correlation and Causality; Regression and Prediction of Behavior Answer this questions while reading the chapters for your own understanding. Understand the following concepts while reading your chapters; Understanding Correlations – When Are We Most Susceptible to Illusionary Correlations? Seeking and Interpreting Correlations How Do We Standardize Two Different Variables on the Same Scale? Using Best-Fit Lines to Make Predictions The Search for Causality Using Correlations to Understand Reliability and Validity The Differences Between Regression and Correlation What Is Regression to the Mean? Regression as a Way to Quantify "Common Sense" Readings: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 15 and 16: Correlation: Quantifying the Relation Between Two Variables, and Chapter 15 and 16 : Correlation and Regression: Tools for Predicting Behavior This is what you have to turn in. Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to (each) 5 EVEN of the Chapter Exercises Mid-Term Exam is during our second class meeting. Week 7 A Normal World – How Do We Properly Make Normative Comparisons? Understand this concepts while reading your chapters. What Is Normal? – What is Normal Heart Rate? What's So Unique About the Normal Curve? Standardization by Comparing z Scores The Central Limit Theorem Understanding Why a Distribution of Means Is So Powerful Estimating Population Parameters from Sample Statistics Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 6: The Normal Curve, Standardization, and the Z scores. The Surprising Story of the Normal Curve Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to FIVE ( Even) of the Chapter Exercises Week 8 Hypothesis Testing Comparing Two Groups and One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Comparing Three or More Groups; Comparing Groups with z Test – Hypothesis Testing Single-Group Design Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing Using the t Distribution The Six Steps of Hypothesis Testing Visualizing Data – Using Graphical Plots What is the F Distribution? Understanding Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in Everyday Life Problems When We Are Fishing for Findings (Using Multiple t Tests) The Effect of Increasing Sample Size In-Class Statistical Exercise Focusing on Economics: Can You Tell a Fraudulent Tax Return When You See One? Readings: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 7: Hypothesis Testing with z Tests; Making Meaningful Comparisons, Chapter 9 : Hypothesis Testing with t Tests: Chapter 10: paired t test; Chapter 12 and 13: Hypothesis Testing with OneWay ANOVA: BETWEEN AND WITHIN Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to two (even) of the Chapter Exercises a total of 10 questions Week 9: Appropriate Statistical Interpretation: Confidence Intervals, Effect Size, and Statistical Power Please discuss the following topics in detail. Beyond Hypothesis Testing: An Accurate Understanding of Men and Women: Differences in Math Abilities Interval Estimation: A Range of Possible Explanation How "Significant" Is "Significant Differences"? What We Have Learned About Effect Size – The Value of Cohen's d Meta-Analysis and the History of Common Factors in Psychotherapy In-Class Statistical Exercise Focusing on Health: What Can a Fourth Grader Do with Statistics? (Would you believe that she got an article into the Journal of the American Medical Association and citations in the New York Times?) Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 8: Beyond Hypothesis Testing: Confidence Intervals, Effect Size, and Statistical Power Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to FIVE of the Chapter Exercises (EVEN) Week 10: Nonparametric Statistics and the Chi Square Test: Parametric and Nonparametric Tests Assumptions Levels of Measurement Revisited and the Chi Square Test Examining the Data to Determine Appropriate Statistical Design Controversies in Nonparametric Hypothesis Testing Individual Assignment Statistical Exercise Focusing on Criminology: Is Simultaneous Lineups Better than Sequential Lineups in Criminal Identification? Readings: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 17 and 18: Chi Square: Expectations Versus Observations, and Chapter 17 and 18: Beyond Chi Square Nonparametric Tests with Ordinal Data Self Check [no need to turn-in]: Write down your answers to Five of the Chapter Exercises ( EVEN) Week 11. Choosing and Reporting Statistical Results; Bayes' Theorem Planning Your Statistical Design: Working Backwards Guidelines for Reporting Statistics Revisiting the I-D-E-A Model Conditional Probability and Baysian Reasoning Understanding the Monty Hall Dilemma Reading: Nolan & Heinzen, Chapter 15: Choosing a Statistical Test and Reporting the Results: The Process of Statistics Written In-Class Multiple-Choice and Short-Answer Final Examination at Session #11 Final Exam [Open book]. Assignments: (Additional criteria and requirements will be provided during the course) Online Participation This course includes online participation. Each week, students will respond to prompts from readings, videos or audios, current debates etc on the eCollege discussion board. Students will engage with the material, respond to the prompt in no less than 150 words. (Notes must be substantive). Posted notes must be your own words or if you have read an article, post a summary of that article using your own words. Attendance: As noted in the University catalog, students are expected to attend all class meetings of course in which they are enrolled. Students missing two (2) or more weeks will be unlikely to pass the course. Additional Policies Contesting a grade: Students must wait at least 24 hours after an assignment has been returned to contest a grade. This policy allows students to carefully review the assignment and their answers. Late Assignments: All assignments must be posted by the due date. In general, late assignments will not be accepted. This course is conducted online and student participation is required. Each week, students will respond to prompts from readings, videos, current debates etc on the discussion board. See the previous section addressing Online Participation for additional details and required participation. New Online Platform: We will use Blackboard Collaborate which is different from ecollege that you may be used to in important areas: Submitting Assignments- In Blackboard, students submit their assignments directly to the assignment link. There is NO Dropbox in Blackboard. See this tutorial: http://help.blackboard.com/enus/Learn/9.1_2014_04/Student/060_Assignments/010_Submit_Assignments Assistance submitting assignments is our top call to the Help Desk. Online Discussion Etiquette Participating in online discussions as part of your coursework is different than blogging or engaging in social media as the protocol is different between friendships and professional relationships. Consider these guidelines for your contributions to online discussion: Only say online what you would also say in person. Be careful of informal tone – sarcasm or joking can be interpreted as offensive or mean-spirited online. Use proper punctuation and formatting – Capital letters online are the equivalent of shouting in person. Proper capitalization and correct grammar will increase your voice online by showing that you are educated, value what others think of you, and that you value professionalism. Be honest and transparent – if you choose to use real-life examples, make sure that they are real and check out under a bit of scrutiny, because people will check and sometimes ask. If you are not honest and open, people will sense this and will not trust you. Contribute to the conversation – Contribute to the conversation with relevant replies that show that you have read, processed and taken seriously the ideas of others. Replying with useful information will encourage increased participation by others, and you will also gain the reputation as someone who cares about others and the ideas that are important to the entire group. University Academic Policy, including Registration information: http://www.jfku.edu/assets/resources/pageResources/JFKU%20Catalog%202011 %20for%20web.pdf, Pages 7-18 Academic Honesty: http://www.jfku.edu/assets/resources/pageResources/Plagarism.pdf Cheating is the act of aiding or abetting any act that a reasonable person would conclude, when informed of the evidence, to be a dishonest means of obtaining or attempting to obtain credit for academic work. Copying, in part or whole, from another’s examination, paper, research or creative project. Submitting as one’s own work which has been purchased, borrowed, or stolen; fabricating data; Employing a surrogate to take an examination, write a paper, or complete, in whole or in part, an assignment; Plagiarism: Plagiarism is the presentation of words, ideas or views of someone else as if they were one’s own. Plagiarism is intellectual dishonesty and, as such, is a serious academic offense. The potential penalties for plagiarism range from an unsatisfactory grade in the course (an ‘F” or ‘no credit’), a letter of sanction placed in the student’s permanent academic file, or even dismissal from the university. Plagiarism includes: passing off another’s written work as your own; failing to give credit to your sources for the ideas, information, and words you have borrowed from them; not quoting when you use another’s exact words; not changing the wording or sentence structure significantly enough when you paraphrase a source. Important note: Your work may be submitted to turnitin.com. Turnitin.com operates a secure database and protects your privacy by assigning report numbers to all work stored in its database. See Turnitin.com for more details. University Student Services: http://www.jfku.edu/assets/resources/pageResources/JFKU%20Catalog%202011 %20for%20web.pdf, Pages 18-20 Academic Support Center (ASC): The ASC provides individual instruction in writing, study skills, and APA citation style. The instructors can act as a second pair of eyes on your paper, working with you to identify your patterns and improve your abilities. Appointments can be held in person or via phone, fax or email. Students may meet with an instructor a maximum of once per week; those who are registered with the Office of Disability Services may have 2 appointments per week. All ASC services are free to registered students, faculty, and staff. Students can make an appointment by calling 925.969.3530 or emailing asc@jfku.edu. National University (NU) Writing & Math Centers: All JFKU students have access to additional free writing and math support through National University’s Writing & Math Centers. Schedule an appointment with the NU Writing Center at: http://www.nu.edu/OurPrograms/StudentServices/WritingCenter/OnlineWritingCenter.h tml. NU Math support: Tutoring is available to students in the fields of mathematics, statistics, sciences, engineering and business mathematics. Schedule an appointment with the NU Math Center at: http://www.nu.edu/OurPrograms/StudentServices/mathcenter.html. Office of Disability Services (ODS) for Students - Educational All students who are in need accommodations related to a documented physical, learning, or mental health disability are encouraged to meet with the Office of Disability Services for Students (ODS) in Room S220, 925-969-3447, early in the quarter, and utilize the support services that they offer. Please note that classroom accommodations cannot be made until you have registered with ODS, received an Accommodation Letter, and provided a copy to your instructor. It is your decision as to when you deliver your Accommodation Letter to an instructor, but accommodations cannot be provided until that time; accommodations are not provided retroactively. Libraries: The JFKU Libraries system consists of the central Robert M. Fisher Library in Pleasant Hill and its branches on the Berkeley and San Jose campuses as well as the Law Library, also located on the Pleasant Hill campus. The Libraries’ collections include nearly 200,000 books, journals and media titles, thousands of which are accessible online. It is the Libraries’ mission to support learning, scholarship, professional development and student success. Librarians are available to assist with your research needs by phone, email, online chat or in person. Please visit your library or the library web site at library.jfku.edu for further information. Course Evaluation During your last class session, you will be asked to complete an evaluation of the course and instructor. The evaluation does not collect any student information, but rather asks you to rate the course (from Strongly Disagree to Strongly Agree) in several areas. You are also encouraged to provide written comments. We appreciate the feedback you provide in the course evaluation and use that feedback as part of our program assessment and to inform possible course and program changes. Please provide your feedback in a thoughtful and professional manner. A student volunteer distributes the evaluation and returns them to the University for scanning and tabulation. The course evaluation is a blind evaluation as the College and instructor are only provided with a summary of the evaluation results (including transcribed comments) and do not receive completed individual evaluation forms.