Why E/3?
Dr. Kelly Kissock
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Department of Renewable and Clean Energy
University of Dayton

What on Earth Are These?
World Energy Use
World Economic
Output
World Population

Converting Heat to Work
Since pre-history we knew how to:
Work
Heat
Industrial Revolution to:
Work
Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine
~1712

Revolutionary Change
 Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%
 Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%
 Transforms family: parents leave home to work
 Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad
 Technology and population explode

Economic Explosion
 From 1700-2000, per capita
US/Europe income grows from $600 to
$18,000 per year
 Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution
Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way…
 Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%
 Watt’s steam engine: 1%
 Gasoline engines: 30%
 Coal Rankine cycles: 35%
 Turbines: 40%
 Diesel engines: 50%
 Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged…
1 . Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
2. Employ combustion to release heat
CH
4
+2 (O
2
) = CO
2
+2 (H
2
0)
3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels
 In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels
 Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

Resource Constraints
M. King Hubbert

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:
US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

Actual U.S. Oil Production
(Peaks in 1972)
Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:
World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

Cambell’s World Oil Peak

ASPO World Oil Peak

World Oil
Near Peak Production
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Hubbert Curve Actual
Peak production = 2015
Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

EIA’s World Oil Peak

Extreme Oil
“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”
Simon Dyer

Canada’s Oil Sands
 Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%)
 GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater
 Surface mining (20%):
•
•
•
•
Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen ; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil
1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings
Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed
1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond
 In situ mining (80%):
•
•
Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface
Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

Deep Water Drilling
 Gulf of Mexico
• 6,000 wells
•
•
Progressively deeper water
Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft water
 Brazil’s Tupi Field:
• 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft sandstone/rock salt
•
•
$1 million/day to operate platform
“The only political fight in
Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.”
Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/
Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/

World Natural Gas
Near Peak Production
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Hubbert Curve Actual
Peak production = 2018
Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

World Coal
Peak Production 2050?
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Hubbert Curve Actual
Peak production = 2060
Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

Consequences of Peak Fuel
• Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices
• Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions
• Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits
• Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks
• Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia,
Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

Environmental Perspective
The Economist, 1990.

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from
Fossil Fuels
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
99%
CO2
95%
SO2
95%
NOx
73%
VOC
70%
CO

Global CO
2
Concentration
• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., “Is There
Still Time to Avoid
Dangerous
Anthropogenic
Interference with
Global Climate?”,
American Geophysical
Union, 2005.

Even (N
2
0
2
) and Odd (CO
2
Atmospheric Molecules
CH
4
)
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001,
“Summary for Policymakers”

Historical Temperature and CO
2
Correlation
“Changing Climate”,
Stephen Schneider,
Scientific American,
10/1989

Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”
Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes
“dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”,
Climatic Change, Vol.
68, No. 3., 2005,
Pages 269-279.

Result: Earth Quickly Warming
Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

Warming Most Pronounced At Poles
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

And the List Goes On…
 Drought
 Severe weather
 Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range)
 Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
• Methane release from thawing “perma-frost”
• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

Debate?
 Consensus view from:
•
•
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
• Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’
 Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):
• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”.
•
•
Found 983 papers
NONE disagreed with consensus position

Time Lags Amplify Effects
 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001

Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil
Fuel
Energy
Economy
CO
2
&
Pollution
Energy Out
Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Ecological Model of Production
Biological Technical

Transition to Sustainability Is
Central Challenge of 21 st Century
21 st century
Industrial revolution
Pre-industrial revolution
Today
Time

OECD / Non-OECD Contributions
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

California Story

California Energy Efficiency
= 1 Billion Cars

US Energy Efficiency
= 77% of Demand for New Energy Services

But We Have to Move Even Faster…

Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
 American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030
•
•
•
50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010
Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.
Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
 U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:
•
•
•
•
50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED
65% Silver
80% Gold
100% Platinum
 ASHRAE
•
•
Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004
Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use
 U.S. Department of Energy
• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025

University of Dayton:
Renewable and Clean Energy Program
 Energy Efficiency
• Energy Efficient Buildings
•
•
•
Energy Efficient Manufacturing
Ground Source Heat Pumps
Design of Thermal Systems
• Building Energy Informatics
 Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Systems
•
•
•
Solar Energy Engineering
Wind Energy Engineering
Environmental Sustainability

Same Week as “Deep Horizon” Sank
 U.S. approves first off-shore wind farm off
Cape Cod
 Virginia offshore wind resource could power 750,000 homes, forever
Source: Audubon, 10-11/2010

 Atlantic offshore wind potential =
70% of U.S. electricity
 North Dakota is
“Saudi Arabia” of wind
 10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012
In Fact:
Source: www.greenzer.com

“Our Choice”

Doing the Math: World
 C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
 Business as usual case 2000-2050
•
•
•
•
• Pop increases by 1.5x
$/Pop increases by 4x
E/$ constant
C/E constant
C
2050
= 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C
2000
 Carbon stabilization case
•
•
• C
2050
= 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C
3x improvement in energy efficiency
2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
2000
 50% carbon reduction case
•
• 6x improvement in energy efficiency
2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

EEB Course Goals
Learn how to design buildings that are:
•
•
•
• Functional
(traditional engineering course)
Economic
(better engineering course)
Improve comfort / productivity
(enlightened engineering course)
E/3
(our course)

Addressing these global problems of resource and environmental constraints on the foundation of our modern economy will no doubt require:
•
•
•
•
Social reform
Economic reform
Political reform
Technological innovation

 C = Pop x $/Pop x C/$ x E/$ x C/E
 Business as usual case 2000-2050

•
•
•
•
• Pop grows at 1% from 275M to 450M is increase of 1.6
$/Pop grows at 2% is increase of 2.7
E/$ constant
C/E constant
C
2050
= 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 4.3 C
2000
Carbon stabilization case: C
C
2050
2050
= 0.5 C
2000
= 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x (E/$) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2 = 0.5 C •
 Continued development requires:
•
• Factor 4 increase in energy efficiency
Factor 2 reduction in carbon intensity of energy
2000

 Atmospheric CO
•
2 concentration
Pre-industrial = 280 ppm
• Current = 380 ppm
• Best case target = stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050
 (1 C above 2000 temperature)
 Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050:
• World: C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU = 14 GtC/yr)
• US: C emissions reduced 50% to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU = 2.7 GtC/yr)
 Possible by realizing “wedges”

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Fossil
Fuel
Energy
Economy
Energy Resources Becoming Increasingly Scarce

4
3
6
5
2
1
8
7
0
Energy
Efficiency
Pulverized
Coal
Coal IGCC w/o carbon
Nuclear Nat. Gas
Combined
Cycle w/ $20/ton carbon
Biomass Wind
Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.

2
Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

 Energy Efficiency
•
•
Increases business competitiveness
Increase resource availability
• Increases environmental health
 Energy Efficiency is
THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT
ECONOMY

 U.S. Department of Energy
•
•
Energy audits


Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers
Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures
Energy system software and best practice case studies
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
 Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020
• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment and retrofits.

ISO Standards
•
•
•
9001 Quality
14001 Environment
50001 Energy
 Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.

 “25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of
3 cents or less per kWh.”
 “New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”
Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

 "Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”
 “Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”
Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon
Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science,
1/2010

U.S. CO
2
Emissions 6 GT/yr
Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost
Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

 1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply
 Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.
 California embarks on energy-efficiency path

 Per capita energy use fourth lowest
 Emits half CO
2 per $ as rest of U.S.
 Generates most renewable electricity
 Most patents and most capital invested in “cleantech” companies



1973
 99% of energy imported
 80% of economy is agricultural
2009


Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job economy
Control world wind turbine market





17% of energy from renewable energy
Net energy exporter
Meet Kyoto CO
2 standards
3.7% unemployment
Trade and fiscal surplus
Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,
Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009

•
•
•
•
•
•
Implemented



Regulatory framework
Incentives and penalties
7 fold increase in renewable energy
“Want to be first movers..”
“Market is colossal”
 Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles
Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.

“Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”
“Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”
“Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”
Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,
Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,
10/2009