PEREKONOMIAN EMPAT
SEKTOR
Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic
Concepts

Open and Closed Economies
A
closed economy is one that does not interact with
other economies in the world.
 There
 An
are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows.
open economy is one that interacts freely with other
economies around the world.
Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic
Concepts

An Open Economy
 An
open economy interacts with other countries in two
ways.
 It
buys and sells goods and services in world product
markets.
 It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets.
THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF
GOODS AND CAPITAL

An Open Economy
 The
United States is a very large and open economy—
it imports and exports huge quantities of goods and
services.
 Over the past four decades, international trade and
finance have become increasingly important.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports


Exports are goods and services that are produced
domestically and sold abroad.
Imports are goods and services that are produced
abroad and sold domestically.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports


Net exports (NX) are the value of a nation’s exports
minus the value of its imports.
Net exports are also called the trade balance.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports

A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports
(NX) are negative.
 Imports

A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports
(NX) are positive.
 Exports

> Exports
> Imports
Balanced trade refers to when net exports are
zero—exports and imports are exactly equal.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports

Factors That Affect Net Exports
 The
tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign
goods.
 The prices of goods at home and abroad.
 The exchange rates at which people can use domestic
currency to buy foreign currencies.
The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports

Factors That Affect Net Exports
 The
incomes of consumers at home and abroad.
 The costs of transporting goods from country to country.
 The policies of the government toward international
trade.
Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy
Percent
of GDP
15
Imports
10
Exports
5
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow

Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign
assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of
domestic assets by foreigners.
A
U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation and
a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor corporation.
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow


When a U.S. resident buys stock in Telmex, the
Mexican phone company, the purchase raises U.S.
net capital outflow.
When a Japanese residents buys a bond issued by
the U.S. government, the purchase reduces the U.S.
net capital outflow.
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow

Variables that Influence Net Capital Outflow
 The
real interest rates being paid on foreign assets.
 The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets.
 The perceived economic and political risks of holding
assets abroad.
 The government policies that affect foreign ownership
of domestic assets.
The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow


Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are
closely linked.
For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must
balance each other so that:
NCO = NX
 This
holds true because every transaction that affects
one side must also affect the other side by the same
amount.
Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the
International Flows


Net exports is a component of GDP:
Y = C + I + G + NX
National saving is the income of the nation that is
left after paying for current consumption and
government purchases:
Y - C - G = I + NX
Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the
International Flows

National saving (S) equals Y - C - G so:
S = I + NX
or
Saving
=
Domestic
Investment
S
=
I
Net
Capital
+
Outflow
+
NCO
Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign
Investment
(a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP)
Percent
of GDP
20
Domestic investment
18
16
14
National saving
12
10
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign
Investment
(b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP)
Percent
of GDP
4
3
2
Net capital
outflow
1
0
–1
–2
–3
–4
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS:
REAL AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES


International transactions are influenced by
international prices.
The two most important international prices are the
nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate.
Nominal Exchange Rates

The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a
person can trade the currency of one country for the
currency of another.
Nominal Exchange Rates

The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a
person can trade the currency of one country for the
currency of another.
Nominal Exchange Rates

The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two
ways:
 In
units of foreign currency per one U.S. dollar.
 And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit of the foreign
currency.
Nominal Exchange Rates

Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese
yen and U.S. dollar is 80 yen to one dollar.
 One
U.S. dollar trades for 80 yen.
 One yen trades for 1/80 (= 0.0125) of a dollar.
Nominal Exchange Rates


Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a
currency as measured by the amount of foreign
currency it can buy.
Depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a
currency as measured by the amount of foreign
currency it can buy.
Nominal Exchange Rates


If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an
appreciation of the dollar.
If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar.
Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person
can trade the goods and services of one country for
the goods and services of another.
Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate compares the prices of
domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic
economy.
 If
a case of German beer is twice as expensive as
American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of
German beer per case of American beer.
Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate depends on the nominal
exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two
countries measured in local currencies.
Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how
much a country exports and imports.
Nominal exchange rate  Domestic price
Real exchange rate =
Foreign price
Real Exchange Rates


A depreciation (fall) in the U.S. real exchange rate
means that U.S. goods have become cheaper
relative to foreign goods.
This encourages consumers both at home and
abroad to buy more U.S. goods and fewer goods
from other countries.
Real Exchange Rates


As a result, U.S. exports rise, and U.S. imports fall,
and both of these changes raise U.S. net exports.
Conversely, an appreciation in the U.S. real
exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become
more expensive compared to foreign goods, so U.S.
net exports fall.
A FIRST THEORY OF
EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION: PURCHASING-POWER
PARITY

The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest
and most widely accepted theory explaining the
variation of currency exchange rates.
The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

Purchasing-power parity is a theory of exchange
rates whereby a unit of any given currency should
be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all
countries.
The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a
unit of any given currency should be able to buy the
same quantity of goods in all countries.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on
a principle called the law of one price.
 According
to the law of one price, a good must sell for
the same price in all locations.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity


If the law of one price were not true, unexploited
profit opportunities would exist.
The process of taking advantage of differences in
prices in different markets is called arbitrage.
Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity


If arbitrage occurs, eventually prices that differed
in two markets would necessarily converge.
According to the theory of purchasing-power parity,
a currency must have the same purchasing power in
all countries and exchange rates move to ensure
that.
Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity


If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the
same at home and abroad, then the exchange rate
cannot change.
The nominal exchange rate between the currencies
of two countries must reflect the different price
levels in those countries.
Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity

When the central bank prints large quantities of
money, the money loses value both in terms of the
goods and services it can buy and in terms of the
amount of other currencies it can buy.
Figure 3 Money, Prices, and the Nominal Exchange Rate During
the German Hyperinflation
Indexes
(Jan. 1921 5 100)
1,000,000,000,000,000
Money supply
10,000,000,000
Price level
100,000
1
Exchange rate
.00001
.0000000001
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity


Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from
one country to another.
Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes
when they are produced in different countries.
MODEL PEREKONOMIAN 4
SEKTOR
Equilibrium in the Goods Market
Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G – ЄQ(Y, Є) + X (Y*, Є)
(+)
(+, -)
(+, -)
(+, +)
Net exports defined as exports minus imports, X ЄQ
NX(Y,Y*, Є) ≡
X(Y*, Є) – ЄQ(Y, Є)
Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G + NX(Y,Y*, Є)
(+)
(+, -)
(-,+, +)
43
Four our purposes the essential implication of
equation :
1.An Increase in the real interest rate leads to a
decrease in the demand for domestics goods.
This leads, through the multiplier, to a decrease
in output
2.An increase in the real exchange rate- a real
depreciation leads to shift in demand toward
domestic goods, and thus in increase in net
exports. the increase in net export increases
demand and output
44
3. Given our focus on the short run, we assumed in
our previous treatment of the IS-LM Model that the
(domestic) price level was given. I shall extend this
assumption to the foreign price level, so the real
exchange rate , (Є ≡ E P*/P) and the nominal
exchange rate (E) move together. A nominal
depreciation leads one for one , to a real
depreciation. If for notational convenience, we
choose P and P* so that P=P*=1 (and we can do
so because they are index number), then Є = E
45
4.As we take the domestic price level as given,
there is no inflation, actual or expected. Thus, the
nominal and the real interest rate are the same,
and we can replace the real interest rate r, in the
equation by the nominal interest rate, i
Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, i) + G + NX(Y,Y*, E)
(+)
(+, -)
(-,+, +)
46
EQUILIBRIUM IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Domestic bonds Versus Foreign Bonds
The Interest parity condition
it = i t* + (Eet+1 – E t)/ E t
The domestic interest rate it must be equal to the
foreign interest rate it* plus the expected rate of
depreciation of the domestic currency
(Eet+1 – E t)/ E t
47
For now, The expected future exchange rate is
given and denote it as E e and under this
assumption, and dropping time indexes, the interest
parity condition becomes :
i = i * + (E e – E)/ E
Multiplying both sides by E, bringing the terms in E
to the left side, and dividing both sides by (1+i-i*)
gives the current exchange rate as a function of the
expected future exchange rate and the domestic
and foreign interest rate
48
E
= E e/ (1+i – i*)
This equation implies a negative relation between
the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate.
Given the expected future exchange rate and the
foreign interest rate, an increase in the domestic
interest rate leads to a decrease in the exchange
rate equivalently, to an appreciation of the domestic
currency. A decrease in the domestic interest rate
leads to an increase in the exchange rate to a
depreciation
49
Domestic Interest rate, i
Interest parity relation (given i*, Ee)
i
Ee
Appreciation of the
domestic currency
50
Exchange Rate, E
Depreciation of the
domestic currency
AL-SHARF DAN HEDGING
Pengertian…..1

Merupakan transaksi jual-beli mata uang asing
(valuta asing) yang dapat dilakukan baik dengan
sesama mata uang yang sejenis, misalnya rupiah
dengan rupiah maupun yang tak sejenis, misalnya
rupiah dengan dolar atau sebaliknya Jual-beli
mata uang yang tidak sejenis ini, penyerahannya
yang harus dilakukan pada waktu yang sama
Batasan Al-Sharf….1

Aktivitas perdagangan valuta asing harus terbebas
dari unsur riba, maisir, dan gharar. Dalam
pelaksanaannya
haruslah
memperhatikan
beberapa batasan sebagai berikut:
1.
Pertukaran tersebut harus dilakukan secara tunai
(spot),
artinya
masing-masing
pihak
harus
menerima/menyerahkan masing-masing mata uang
pada saat yang bersamaan
Batasan Al-Sharf….2
2.
3.
Motif pertukaran adalah dalam rangka
mendukung transaksi komersial, yaitu transaksi
perdagangan barang dan jasa antar bangsa,
bukan dalam rangka spekulasi
Harus dihindari jual beli bersyarat. Misalnya, A
sutuju membeli barang dari B hari ini dengan
syarat B harus membelinya kembali pada tanggal
tertentu dimasa mendatang
Batasan Al-Sharf….3
4.
5.
Transaksi berjangka harus dilakukan dengan
pihak-pihak yang diyakini mampu menyediakan
valuta asing yang dipertukarkan.
Tidak dibenarkan menjual barang yang belum
dikuasai atau dengan kata lain tidak dibenarkan
jual beli tanpa hak kepemilikan (bai’ al-fudhuli
Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…..1

Dengan memperhatikan beberapa batasan
tersebut, terdapat beberapa tingkah laku
perdagangan yang dewasa ini biasa dilakukan di
pasar valuta asing konvensional harus dihindari,
yaitu antara lain:
Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…2
1.
2.
3.
4.
Perdagangan tanpa penyerahan (future non-delivery
trading atau margin trading),
Jual beli valas bukan transaksi komersial (arbitrage),
baik spot maupun forward
Melakukan penjualan melebihi jumlah yang dimiliki
atau dibeli (oversold),
Melakukan transaksi swap
ketentuan Umum Sharf…1
1.
Nilai tukar yang dijual belikan harus telah dikuasai,
baik oleh pembeli maupun oleh penjual, sebelum
keduanya berpisah. Penguasaan ini dapat
berbentuk penguasaan secara material maupun
hukum. Penguasaan secara material, misalnya
pembeli langsung menerima dolar AS yang dibeli
dan penjual langsung menerima uang rupiah.
Adapun penguasaan hukum, misalnya pembayaran
dengan menggunakan cek
ketentuan Umum Sharf…2
2.
3.
Apabila mata uang atau valuta yang diperjualbelikan itu dari jenis yang sama, maka jual beli mata
uang itu harus dilakukan dalam mata uang sejenis
yang kualitas dan kuantitasnya sama sekalipun model
dari mata uang itu berbeda.
Dalam Sharf tidak boleh dipersyaratkan dalam
akadnya adanya hak khiar syarat (khiar) bagi
pembeli. Khiar syarat adalah hak pilih bagi pembeli
untuk dapat melanjutkan jual beli mata uang tersebut
setelah selesai berlangsungnya jual-beli yang
terdahulu atau tidak melanjutkan jual-beli itu,yang
syarat itu diperjanjikan ketika berlangsungnya
transaksi terdahulu tersebut
ketentuan Umum Sharf…3
4.
Tidak ada tenggang waktu antara
penyerahan
mata
uang
yang
dipertukarkan, karena bagi sahnya sharf
penegasan objek akad harus dilakukan
secara tunai dan perbuatan saling
menyerahkan itu harus berlangsung
sebelum kedua belah pihak yang
melakukan jual-beli valuta berpisah.
HEDGING
PENGERTIAN

Lindung nilai atau hedging sebagai salah
satu alat dalam manajemen risiko masih
diperdebatkan hingga hari ini, hal ini
membuktikan adanya gap antara hukum
normatif
dan
positif
mengenai
kesesuaiannya terhadap syari’ah
Derivative….1

Instrumen-instrumen baru dalam bidang ekonomi
seperti derivative dikaji secara mendalam dan
komprehensif oleh para ulama dan pakar ekonomi
Islam yang merujuk pada sumber hukum Islam yang
utama yakni Al-Qur’an, Hadits serta hasil Ijtihad para
ulama sebelumnya. Hasil kajian tersebut kemudian
dituangkan dalam bentuk fatwa yang menjadi dasar
praktik derivative bagi umat Islam.
Derivative….2

Fatwa-fatwa yang berkaitan dengan derivative antara
lain adalah fatwa dari Dewan Syari’ah Nasional
Majelis Ulama Indonesia (DSN MUI) No. 28/DSNMUI/III/2002 tentang jual beli mata uang (Al-Sharf)
dijelaskan bahwa jual beli mata uang pada prinsipnya
boleh dilakukan dengan syarat atau ketentuan tidak
untuk spekulasi (untung-untungan), ada kebutuhan
transaksi untuk berjaga-jaga (simpanan), apabila
nilainya dilakukan terhadap mata uang sejenis maka
nilainya harus sama dan secara tunai (at-taqabudh),
apabila berlainan jenis maka harus dilakukan dengan
nilai tukar (valas) yang berlaku ada saat transaksi
dilakukan dan secara tunai
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi Derivatif ….1
Spot
1.

Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas untuk penyerahan
pada saat itu (over the counter) atau penyelesaiannnya
paling lambat dalam jangka waktu sua hari hukumnya
adalah boleh atau tidak bertentangan dengan syari’ah.
Forward
2.

Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas yang nilainya
ditetapkan pada saat sekarang untuk waktu yang akan
datang, antara 2 x 24 jam sampai dengan satu tahun,
hukumnya adalah haram, kecuali dalam bentuk forward
agreement untuk kebutuhan yang tidak dapat dihindari (lil
hajah).
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi valas
……..2
Swap
3.

Kontrak pembelian dan penjualan valas dengan harga spot
yang dikombinasikan dengan pembelian antara penjualan
valas yang sama dengan harga forward hukumnya adalah
haram.
Options
4.

Kontrak untuk memperoleh hak dalam rangka membeli atau
hak untuk menjual yang tidak harus dilakukan atas sejumlah
unit valas pada harga dan jangka waktu atau tanggal
akhir tertentu hukumnya adalah haram.
fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi
valas ……..3

Fatwa lainnya yang berkitan dengan transaksi
derivative adalah dari negara Malaysia mengenai
derivative future contract untuk crude palm oil (CPO).
Fatwa ini menyatakan bahwa derivative future
contract CPO merupakan transaksi yang termasuk
syariah compliant sehingga dapat digunakan
sebagai lindung nilai.
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…1


Salah satu usaha mengurangi risiko adalah dengan
melakukan lindung nilai (hedging). Konsep hedging
pada dasarnya adalah dengan cara mengambil
posisi yang berlawanan antara cash market dengan
future market yang bertujuan untuk menghindari
kerugian akibat pergerakan harga pasar.
Hedging dapat dilakukan menggunakan instrumeninstrumen derivative seperti forward contract, futures
contract, options dan swaps
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative ..2

Penggunaan instrumen derivative sebagai alat
mengendalikan risiko adalah karena globalisasi
ekonomi dan integrasi keuangan dunia ditambah
pula dengan peningkatan volatility atau sangat
mudahnya pasar keuangan berfluktuasi. Adanya
instrumen derivative memungkinkan barbagai
partisipan (the ”end-user”) untuk melindungi nilai
ktiva yan dimillikinya dari risiko kerugian akibat
kemerosotan nilai hanya pada batas toleransi yang
diinginkan atau direncanakan
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…3

mekanisme futures contract secara sederhana adalah
misalnya suatu perusahaan membutuhkan minyak
mentah untuk dikelola tiga bulan yang akan datang,
maka ia menghadapi risiko fluktuasi harga minyak
karena tidak dapat memprediksi harga bahan baku 3
bulan yang akan datang. Untuk ia dapat melakukan
lindung nilai (hedging) dengan membeli futures contract
di pasar sekunder pada harga futures tertentu dengan
jangka waktu tiga bulan. Future price ini akan bernilai
lebih tinggi dari harga spot minyak mentah pada hari
dilakukannya pembelian kontrak karena ditambahkan
unsur margin berupa carrying cost, interest risk free,
insurance dan lain sebagainya.
Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…4

Ketika jangka waktu kontrak tiba maka futures
contract kembali dijual oleh si pengusaha pada
harga spot. Apabila harga spot pada tiga bulan
yang akan datang melebihi futures price maka si
pengusaha mendapatkan keuntungan atau premium.
Bila sebaliknya harga spot lebih rendah dari futures
price maka posisi ini disebut discount karena
pengusaha mengalami kerugian di pasar keuangan.
Nilai kerugian yang diderita sebesar selisih harga
spot dengan harga futures pada tanggal jatuh
tempo (setllement date).