Saving Our Future
Requires Tough Choices Today
Fiscal Wake-up Tour
St. Louis, MO — April 28, 2008
David M. Walker
President and CEO
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation
and
Former Comptroller General of the United States
Composition of Federal Spending
1967
1987
28%
27%
32%
2007
20%
29%
45%
14%
7%
14%
21%
10%
21%
9%
21%
2%
Defense
Social Security
Net interest
All other spending
Source: GAO analysis of Office of Management and Budget data.
Medicare & Medicaid
Federal Spending for Mandatory
and Discretionary Programs
1967
1987
7%
2007
9%
14%
26%
42%
67%
Interest
Net Net
interest
53%
44%
Discretionary
Discretionary
Source: GAO analysis of Office of Management and Budget data.
Mandatory
Mandatory
38%
Fiscal Year 2006 and 2007
Deficits and Net Operating Costs
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year
2006
2007
($ Billion)
On-Budget Deficit
(434)
(344)
Unified Deficita
(248)
(163)
Net Operating
Cost
(450)
(276)
Sources: GAO analysis of Office of Management and Budget and Department of the Treasury data.
a
Includes $185 billion in Social Security surpluses for fiscal year 2006 and $186 billion for fiscal year 2007; $1 billion in Postal Service
surpluses for fiscal year 2006 and a $5 billion deficit for fiscal year 2007.
Long-term
Fiscal Exposures
Net Operating Cost
Unified Deficit
Source: GAO analysis.
Note: Data are from the Congressional Budget Office and the Department of Treasury. Estimates of the federal government’s long-term fiscal
exposures are based on the Financial Report of the U.S. Government. These estimates include the present value of future social insurance
obligations over a 75-year time horizon as of January 1st of the preceding year. These estimates have not been adjusted for inflation.
Fiscal exposures (trillions)
Unified budget deficit, operating
deficit, and net operating cost (billions)
Short-term Fiscal Position versus
Long-term Fiscal Exposures
Major Fiscal Exposures
($ trillions)
 Explicit liabilities
 Publicly held debt
 Military & civilian pensions
2000
2007 % Increase
$6.9
$10.8
57
0.5
1.1
97
13.0
40.8
213
3.8
6.8
2.7
12.3
6.5
13.4
--
8.4
$20.4
$52.7
& retiree
health
 Other
 Commitments & contingencies
 E.g.,
PBGC, undelivered orders
 Implicit exposures
 Future
Social Security benefits
 Future Medicare Part A benefits
 Future Medicare Part B benefits
 Future Medicare Part D benefits
Total
158
Source: GAO analysis of 2000 and 2007 Financial Report of the United States Government.
Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to rounding. Estimates for Social Security and Medicare are at present value as of January 1
of each year and all other data are as of September 30.
How Big is Our
Growing Fiscal Burden?
This fiscal burden can be translated and compared as follows:
Total –major fiscal exposures
$52.7 trillion
Total household net worth1
$58.6 trillion
Burden/Net worth ratio
90 percent
Burden2
Per person
Per full-time worker
Per household
$175,000
$410,000
$455,000
Income
Median household income3
Disposable personal income per capita4
$48,201
$33,253
Source: GAO analysis.
Notes: (1) Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts, Table B.100, 2007:Q3 (December 6, 2007); (2) Burdens are calculated using estimated total U.S.
population as of 10/1/2007, from the U.S. Census Bureau; full-time workers reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in NIPA table 6.5D (Aug. 1, 2007); and
households reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, in Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2007); (3) U.S. Census
Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2007); and (4) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and
Outlays, table 2, (Nov. 29, 2007).
Potential Fiscal Outcomes
Under Baseline Extended (January 2001)
Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP
Percent of GDP
50
40
30
Revenue
20
10
0
2005
2015
2030
2040
Fiscal year
Net interest
Social Security
Source: GAO’s January 2001 analysis.
aAll
a
other spending is net of offsetting interest receipts.
a
Medicare & Medicaid
a
All other spending
Potential Fiscal Outcomes
Under Alternative Simulation (August 2007)
Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP
Percent of GDP
50
40
30
Revenue
20
10
0
2006
2015
2030
2040
Fiscal year
Net interest
Social Security
Medicare & Medicaid
All other spending
Source: GAO’s August 2007 analysis.
Notes: AMT exemption amount is retained at the 2006 level through 2017 and expiring tax provisions are extended. After 2017, revenue as a
share of GDP returns to its historical level of18.3 percent of GDP plus expected revenues from deferred taxes, i.e. taxes on withdrawals from
retirement accounts. Medicare spending is based on the Trustees April 2007 projections adjusted for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid
Services alternative assumption that physician payments are not reduced as specified under current law.
State and Local Governments Face
Increasing Fiscal Challenges
Percent of GDP
2
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure
0
-2
Net-lending/Net-Borrowing
-4
-6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Sources: GAO’s analysis of historical data from National Income and Product Accounts. Historical data from 1980 – 2006, GAO projections
from 2007– 2050 using many CBO projections and assumptions, particularly for next 10 years.
Current Fiscal Policy Is
Unsustainable
 The “Status Quo” is Not an Option


We face large and growing structural deficits largely due to known
demographic trends and rising health care costs
GAO’s simulations show that balancing the budget in 2040 could require
actions as large as


Cutting total federal spending by 60 percent or
Raising federal taxes to 2 times today's level
 Faster Economic Growth Can Help, but It Cannot Solve the Problem



Closing the current long-term fiscal gap based on reasonable assumptions
would require real average annual economic growth in the double digit
range every year for the next 75 years
During the 1990s, the economy grew at an average 3.2 percent per year
As a result, we cannot simply grow our way out of this problem. Tough
choices will be required
The Way Forward:
A Three-Pronged Approach
1. Improve Financial Reporting, Public Education, and
Performance Metrics
2. Strengthen Budget and Legislative Processes and
Controls
3. Fundamentally Reexamine & Transform for the 21st
Century (i.e., entitlement programs, other spending, and
tax policy)
Solutions Require Active Involvement from
both the Executive and Legislative Branches
Key National Indicators
 WHAT: A portfolio of economic, social, and environmental outcome-
based measures that could be used to help assess the nation’s and
other governmental jurisdictions’ position and progress
 WHO: Many countries and several states, regions, and localities have
already undertaken related initiatives (e.g., Australia, New Zealand,
Canada, United Kingdom, Oregon, Silicon Valley (California) and
Boston)
 WHY: Development of such a portfolio of indicators could have a
number of possible benefits, including




Serving as a framework for related strategic planning efforts
Enhancing performance and accountability reporting
Informing public policy decisions, including much needed baseline reviews of
existing government policies, programs, functions, and activities
Facilitating public education and debate as well as an informed electorate
 WAY FORWARD: Consortium of key players housed by the National
Academies domestically and related efforts by the OECD and others
internationally
Source: GAO
Key National Indicators:
Where the United States Ranks
The United States may be the only superpower, but
compared to most other OECD countries on selected key
economic, social, and environmental indicators, on
average, the U.S. ranks
16 OUT OF 28
OECD Categories for Key Indicators
(2006 OECD Factbook)
 Population/Migration
 Macroeconomic
Trends
 Prices
 Energy
 Environment
 Labor Market
 Education
 Science &
 Public
Tech.
Source: GAO’s analysis of 2006 OECD Factbook.
Finance
 Quality of
Life
 Economic
Globalization
Moving the Debate Forward
 The Sooner We Get Started, the Better
 The
miracle of compounding is currently working against us
 Less
change would be needed, and there would be more
time to make adjustments
 Our
demographic changes will serve to make reform more
difficult over time
 Need Public Education, Discussion, and Debate
 The
role of government in the 21st Century
 Which
 How
programs and policies should be changed and how
government should be financed
These Challenges Go Beyond
Numbers and Dollars—
It’s About
Why this Matters to Me:
The Walker Grandchildren
Christi
Grace
Daniel