3.
Needs analysis
3.1 Underlying factors of the emergency
The overall underlying and immediate factors that drive Mindanao’s protracted humanitarian situation
are:

Armed conflicts: Armed clan fighting continues to displace civilians in central Mindanao. For
example, in February 2011, the rido over the ownership of land displaced 9,000 people in
Kabacan Municipality in North Cotabato Province. Nearly 130 houses were burned, and school
building and community structures were damaged. Another rido allegedly over a road
construction project between a local elected official (barangay chairman) and a MILF follower
displaced more than 8,000 people in the vicinity of Mangudadatu Municipality in Maguindanao
Province in April. In July, armed skirmishes between two MILF field commanders displaced
48,000 people in Palimbang Municipality in Sultan Kudarat Province. Furthermore, intense
armed fighting between the AFP and elements of MILF broke out in October in Al Barka town
in Basilan Province, displacing at least 4,300 people.1

While the majority of the displacement is short-term, the IDPs require food, non-food items
(NFIs), support for access to safe water and WASH facilities, and protection.

Insecurity: In addition to the armed conflicts, the proliferation of kidnap-for-ransom gangs,
extortion groups and general criminality, including ‘bombs-for-hire’, adds to insecurity,
hampering access for humanitarian actors and progress toward reconstruction and recovery (see
Annex IV for maps on security and natural disaster incidents).2 In September, four roadside
improvised explosive devices (IEDs) exploded in the centre of Cotabato City although they did
not cause any casualties.

Recurrent natural disasters: Year-round floods affect populations across Mindanao. In MayJune 2011, torrential rains triggered widespread flooding in central Mindanao, affecting 860,000
people. Many of the flooded areas were return areas of those displaced by the 2008 conflict
between the GPH and the MILF. For example, in ARMM, 70% of the priority return areas, as
identified by the Government, have been affected by flooding.

Poverty and lack of basic social services: The protracted conflict situation has slowed
progress in development. ARMM has the second highest poverty incidence in the Philippines,
which worsened from 25.0% to 38.1% between 2003 and 2009 (the national average was 20.0%
and 20.9%). Twelve out of the 20 provinces with the highest poverty incidence in the
Philippines are in Mindanao. According to the study by World Bank (WB) and the World Food
Programme (WFP) The Challenges of Displacement and Recovery in central Mindanao
(September 2011), hereafter “WB-WFP Survey”, about one-third of the surveyed households
have poor access to basic social services and infrastructure, such as education, health care and
roads.
3.2 Humanitarian caseload
An estimated 698,000 people affected by the June flooding and armed conflicts need emergency relief
and livelihood support in six provinces in central Mindanao (total population: 5.7 million), according
to assessments undertaken by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and IOM.
This is an 86% increase from 375,000 people targeted in the HAP 2011, which is attributed to the
recurrent flooding since May 2011 and the resumption of IOM’s displacement tracking survey, which
1
2
Provincial Social Welfare Officer in Basilan (20 October 2011).
“Bombs-for-hire”: Experts in bomb-making offering their services for a payment.
had been suspended in November 2010 due to a funding shortage. Approximately 160,000 people are
considered the most vulnerable due to the effects of the 2008 conflict, clan feuds or other types of
armed conflicts and longer-term displacement.
According to DSWD and IOM, of the 698,000 people, 122,000 people who had been displaced by the
flooding have returned to their places of origin. Another 42,000 people are in host communities (i.e.
relatives and friends). An additional 250,000 people have been affected by floods, but are home-based
and in need of ER support. ‘Home-based’ people are those who did not evacuate due to a lack of
means to evacuate or out of fear of their homes being looted. There are 159,000 people who have
been affected by armed conflicts and are home-based, with host-communities or have returned. (See
chart below.)
Population in need of humanitarian assistance for HAP 2012
Province/City
Male
Female*
Affected population
Armed
Natural
conflicts**
disasters***
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)
Lanao del Sur
7,011
10,190
Maguindanao
184,304
297,052
Soccsksargen Region (Region XII)
Cotabato City
49,516
67,291
North Cotabato
6,969
7,466
South Cotabato
437
284
Sultan Kudarat
7,118
11,017
Northern Mindanao (Region X)
Lanao del Norte
19,484
30,112
Total
274,839
423,412
Grand total
698,251
Total
11,140
140,984
6,061
340,372
17,201
481,356
11
1,571
0
4,945
116,796
12,864
721
13,190
116,807
14,435
721
18,135
814
159,465
48,782
538,786
698,251
49,596
698,251
(Source: DSWD IDP registration, 29 July 2011; IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, IOM Site window, 29 September 2011)3
* The gender breakdown is based on the ratio of male and female from the IDP survey of the 2008 armed conflict conducted by
Department of Social Welfare and Development.
** “Armed conflicts” include 2008 GPH-MILF conflict, rido from 2009 to 2011 and other armed clashes.
*** “Natural disasters” primarily include flooding and flash flood.
Number of target beneficiaries by trigger
(Source: DSWD IDP registration, 29 July 2011; IOM Displacement
Tracking Matrix, IOM Site window, 29 September 2011)
The collection of accurate, gender- and
age-disaggregated information on the
IDPs and others who have been affected
by armed conflicts and natural disasters
has been a common challenge across all
clusters due to the fluid and sporadic
nature of the displacement, insecurity
and limited resources to conduct
assessments.
The humanitarian
caseload is expected to increase when
local authorities, IOM and other cluster
partners complete their planned
assessments in the coming months (see
Annex III for a reference list on needs
assessments).
Profile of the conflict- and natural disaster-affected people in central Mindanao: The preliminary
findings of the WB-WFP Survey, made available in September 2011, inform the overall needs analysis
of the HAP. This is a comprehensive population-based survey of select areas in central Mindanao
IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix is an assessment tool used to track displacements in evacuation centres.
IOM Site Windows is an assessment tool used primarily for flood-affected communities, host communities,
return communities and communities for resettlement. The assessments were undertaken between June and
September 2011. The data from DSWD’s IDP registration is the cumulative number of people displaced by
flooding, who were registered from May to July 2011.
3
undertaken in November and December 2010 to support strategies to address the long-term recovery
needs of the conflict-affected people.
The WB-WFP Survey revealed that more than 22% of the households surveyed have been displaced at
least once during 2000-2010, with as many as one in ten of those households displaced five times or
more. The displacements were both short-term (less than six months) and long-term (averaging 15.6
months). The majority do not flee far from their homes and remain in the same province. This may
reflect the fact that many seek the help of family and friends in their locality. The profiles of the
currently displaced, returnees and resettled people in central Mindanao are summarized in the
following table:
Comparative profile of the currently displaced, returnees and resettled people in central
Mindanao

















Currently displaced
Highest exposure to conflict-related violence, including destruction of dwelling (53%) and loss
of assets and harvest (42%)
Highest proportion of households with a poor (10%) or borderline (45%) Food Consumption
Score (FCS)
Poor access to basic services, including access to education (53% ranked bad to very bad)
and health care (61% ranked bad to very bad)
Poor general sense of security (only 53% considered themselves safe or very safe from crime
and violence)
Most frequent use of basic construction material for dwelling, such as wood planks, bamboo
and palm (53%)
Highest proportion of households without a toilet (45%)
Highest proportion of households relying on natural resources and a range of activities such as
charcoal production, mining or hunting for livelihood
Returned to places of origin
High proportion of households with a poor (9%) or borderline (34%) FCS
Limited access to basic services, including access to education (37% ranked bad to very bad)
and health care (53% ranked bad to very bad)
Low general sense of security (63% considered themselves safe or very safe from crime and
violence)
Reliance on basic construction material for dwelling (35%)
Highest proportion of households relying on farming for livelihood (51%)
86% recovered their residential plot and 72% recovered their farmland
Resettled
Low proportion of households with a poor (2%) or borderline (17%) FCS, similar to those who
have never been displaced (1% and 14%, respectively)
Better access to basic services, including access to education (8% ranked bad to very bad)
and health care (24% ranked bad to very bad)
High general sense of security (80% consider themselves safe or very safe from crime and
violence)
Least reliance on basic construction material for dwelling (15%)
(Source: WB-WFP Survey, September 2011)
3.3 Priority humanitarian needs
Mindanao marks low on many of the humanitarian and development indicators in the Philippines.
Crude death rate is worst in Maguindanao at 7.5 per 1,000 people (national average: 5.5). Under five
mortality rate in ARMM is 45 per 1,000 live births (national average: 32). ARMM has the lowest
percentage (14.4%) of deaths attended by health professionals.4 (See Annex II for additional basic and
development indicators for the Philippines.) In this overall condition of generalized vulnerability and
impaired social services, priority needs identified for the HAP 2012 are:
4
The ARMM-wide Investment Plan for Health (2008-2012).
Health, Nutrition and WASH: Many of the health facilities are non-functional due to disrepair, lack
of human resources, essential medicines, supplies and equipment. For example, in Lanao del Sur, only
82 out of 1,068 barangays (villages), have functioning barangay health stations. The routine disease
surveillance system also requires strengthening, as highlighted during the June flooding:
communicable diseases accounted for 30% of the deaths that could otherwise have been prevented.
In Cotabato City, malnutrition, diarrhoea and pneumonia were the leading causes of morbidity
following the June flooding, and caused the only reported deaths in children under five attributed to
the disaster. The trend of acute malnutrition prevalence from 2010 to 2011 has shown a consistent
SAM prevalence of 1-2% in central Mindanao after screening more than 60,000 children under five.
Poor roads and mountainous terrain resulted in gaps in monitoring in Lanao del Sur. The absence of a
national monitoring of SAM highlights the need to expand the current community monitoring of acute
malnutrition in Mindanao.
Malnutrition has proven links to poor access to safe water in the household. According to the
Nutrition Cluster, almost 80% of families with children with SAM reported lack of access to safe
water. The DANA report on the June flooding showed that people in Maguindanao used water from
unprotected wells, which were either destroyed or polluted by the floods. The need to provide clean
water supply and sanitation in flood-affected areas, including health facilities and schools, remains
critical. There is also an urgent need to desludge existing toilets and dispose of waste.
Food Security, Agriculture and ER: Over half of the households in Maguindanao studied in the
WB-WFP survey have either poor or borderline FCS, which measures the diversity, frequency, and
nutritional value of the food items consumed by the household. The FCS for poor or borderline
communities was recorded at 40% in Lanao del Sur, 23% in Lanao del Norte and 18% in Sultan
Kudarat. The Emergency Food Security and Livelihoods Study (EFSL 2011) by Oxfam and partners
revealed that the majority of poor households in Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat and North Cotabato did
not have food stockpiles to last for a week.
Furthermore, the floods in June occurred at a time when most of the farmers were harvesting rice and
corn. Large area of farmlands was inundated, leaving communities in dire need of food and
livelihoods support until the next harvest in March 2012. The replacement of essential planting
materials and agricultural assets is urgently required to help vulnerable crises-affected populations
restore their productive activities.. In Maguindanao, 11,200 farmer households face food and
livelihood insecurity while the fisheries sector reported major damage to fishing equipment and corals.
Floods also damaged irrigation canals and dikes. A number of affected people resort to small incomegenerating activities such as tricycle-driving, given the lack of formal employment opportunities,
reports the ER Cluster.
CCCM: Flood- and conflict-affected communities require hygiene kits, kitchen utensils, sleeping
mats and clothing, according to assessments conducted by IOM in August and September 2011.
Similar needs were reported by cluster partners for communities in temporary shelters and who
experience intermittent rido-related displacement. In addition, displaced and returning families with
damaged and/or dilapidated houses need immediate shelter repair assistance to improve the living
conditions in IDP sites and return areas. Basic facilities in both IDP and return sites also require repair
and rehabilitation towards improved health and security of the families.
Protection, including Gender-Based Violence (GBV) and Child Protection, and Education:
Strengthening awareness on early warning, contingency planning and raising awareness on the guiding
principles and rights of IDPs are priority needs identified by the Protection Cluster. In 2010-2011, the
cluster monitored 70 casualties in ARMM due to mine explosions, 26 in Region IX, 17 in Region XI
and 12 in Region XII.
GBV is often under-reported. In ARMM and Region XII, only 10% of health facilities have post-rape
kits, and only 50% have trained staff to respond to GBV. The GBV Sub-Cluster received 51 reports of
sexual violence against adults and 27 against children in ARMM and Regions X and XII for 20102011. Improving access to quality services and fostering a safe environment for treatment, recovery
and reintegration is a priority for survivors response.
Grave child rights violations in situations of armed conflict remain widespread. The UN-mandated
Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) is in place in the Philippines with the aim of preventing
and responding to these abuses which include killing and maiming, recruitment or use of children
soldiers, attacks on schools and hospitals, rape or other grave sexual violence, abduction, and denial of
humanitarian access for children. The Philippine Country Task Force on Monitoring and Reporting
has noted an increase of recorded grave child rights violations in the past two years. Facilitating
response and access to services, continued monitoring of the development of these cases, and pursuing
advocacy at all levels for mitigation and prevention have to be sustained.
Human trafficking, especially of women and children to both international and national destinations, is
a widely known phenomenon. It is reported in Regions ARMM, XI and XII, and there is anecdotal
and evidence-based data to suggest that areas across Maguindanao, especially Upi, have the highest
flow of children trafficked in the country. A study conducted in GPH-MILF conflict-affected areas
concluded that armed conflict and consequent recurrent displacement make women and girls more
vulnerable to be trafficked. Recruiters take advantage of poverty, cyclic debt and unintentional acts of
family members to traffic women and children; therefore there is a need to educate communities on
preventing human trafficking.
Meanwhile, one in every four children is out of school in ARMM, often owing to intermittent
displacement. The ARMM Government reports that boys constitute the majority of the drop-outs, and
there is evidence that they have been recruited as child soldiers or child labourers and used by armed
groups. Some IDP children who were displaced to urban areas have become juvenile delinquents who
require tracking and assistance.
Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline*
* Sources: Incidents Monitoring, OCHA (January to September 2011); Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA); International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre, Maize in the Philippines (2004); and
the ARMM website.