Mitigation and Adaption
Research in Virginia Workshop
Sandpiper Road, Virginia Beach
Hurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
R. Michael Robinson, PhD
AUG 2015

• Chemical
• Commercial Facilities
• Communications
• Critical Manufacturing
• Dams
• Defense/Industrial Base
• Emergency Services
• Energy
• Financial Services
• Food & Agriculture
• Government Facilities
• Healthcare & Public Health
• Information Technology
• Nuclear
• Transportation Systems
• Water & Wastewater
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Note: Work assessing the rate of sea level rise and extent of inundation is not included (key researchers are here)
• Very significant manufacturing in Mid-Atlantic
• Some manufacturing in Virginia
• CC/SLR related research in sector related to how industry could contribute to solution
• No research found on CC/SLR impact on sector
• Research related to CC/SLR cursory, related to flooded facilities and reduced access
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• CC/SLR could cause heat problems in service centers, exchanges, etc. and reduce wireless signal strength and quality
• Primary concern is the potential impacts failures could have on other infrastructures
• Resiliency planning in progress, but none identified in
Mid-Atlantic
• Very significant manufacturing in Mid-Atlantic
• Some in Virginia
• No CC/SLR related research in sector found
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• Approximately 50 hydroelectric plants in Mid-Atlantic, including 6 in Virginia
• Precipitation rate impacts
• Depending on location, could see either inadequate precipitation or excessive amounts
• No CC/SLR related research in sector found
• Huge presence in Virginia
• Major impacts to local economies
• Most work being led within DOD. Limited published research.
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• Capabilities and effectiveness directly related to transportation systems, communications, IT, etc.
• Increased demand resulting from higher temperatures, forecast storm frequency and intensity
• Alluded to in research of other areas, but little CC/SLR related research in sector found
• Impacts due to rising temperatures, reduced water availability, increased storm rates and strengths
• Research being done, but none identified specifically in the
Mid-Atlantic
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• No CC/SLR related research in sector found
• Little consensus on significance of CC/SLR on changes to farm products, productivity
• Concerns about spread of disease, fungi, effectiveness of herbicides and insecticides at higher temperatures
• New construction design changes
• Extensive changes required to existing infrastructure
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• Emerging health threats as temperature changes allow existing threats to spread
• New demands on healthcare system
• Potential major impacts due to heat in equipment centers
• Ubiquitous. Major concern is the potential impacts failures could have on other infrastructures
• Over a dozen plant sites in Mid-Atlantic
• Two commercial sites in Virginia
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• Existing CC/SLR related research focuses on flooding
(reduced network capability) and environmental impacts on physical infrastructure
• Major impacts on other critical infrastructures
• Weather changes impact type, rate, and timing of precipitation with significant “downstream” impacts
• Lack of “downhill” drainage
• Flooding impacts pump station viability
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Hampton
Infrastructure resiliency
Transportation network viability
Norfolk
Residential area and business sector flooding
Transportation network viability
Port impacts
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Portsmouth
Vulnerabilities Study
Flood prone road network around military installations
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Virginia Beach
Evacuation & SEPG considerations
Beach resilience, tourism
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Statewide spending has been unable to keep up with maintenance and improvements.
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Virginia roads rank
10 th lowest in the nation for rideability
32 nd nationally for the percent of bridges that are functionally obsolete or structurally deficient.
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SLR compounds this by
Flooding evacuation routes
Increasing hydraulic pressure on tunnels
Altering drainage capacity
Accelerating coastal erosion and damaging nearby roads
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Commercial
Facilities
Accessibility
Sanitation &
Logistics
Operational
Support
Tax Revenue Transportation
Systems
Water &
Wastewater
Healthy Workforce
Sanitation
Healthy
Workforce
Accessibility
Healthcare &
Public Health
Emergency
Services
Nuclear
Energy
Food &
Agriculture
Government
Facilities
Chemical
Information
Technology
Communications
Financial
Services
Critical
Manufacturin g
Defense
Industrial
Base
Dams
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Causal Loop Diagram of interdependent population, commercial sector, &investment funding
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Abler, David G. and James S. Shortle. Climate change and agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate
Research, Volume 14, pp. 185-194, 2000. (Considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significantly though there maybe changes in the environmental impacts. Given that agriculture currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high
priority for research.)
Assessing Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure: Hampton
Roads Virginia Pilot. (VDOT, UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems and Center for
Transportation Studies, VCTIR, HRPDC, HRTPO). 2012. At: http://www.virginia.edu/crmes/fhwa_climate/files/finalReport.pdf
Benson, Keith, Patricia Kocagil and James Shortle. Climate change and health in the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 235–244, 2000. (Assesses potential health impacts from climate change.
Morbidity and mortality from extreme events may increase somewhat. Although more speculative, climate change could increase the region’s risk from water-borne and vector-borne diseases. The elderly and those with limited access to health care could be disproportionately affected.)
Fisher, Ann and Ron Smart (ed.). Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region – A Workshop Report.
Sponsored by The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program (Cooperative Agreement No. CR
826554-01) and Office of Policy (Cooperative Agreement No. CR 824369-01) and The Pennsylvania State
University, 1997. At: http://www.epa.gov/eims/global/ccimar.pdf
.
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Ezell, Barry C., R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, and David Flanagan. Cyber risk to transportation, industrial control systems and traffic signal controllers, Environment Systems and Decisions, November
2013, pp. 508-516. (A cyber risk study focusing on bridge/tunnel ICS and a cyber event that tampered with traffic signal operation.)
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization. Hampton Roads Military Transportation Needs
Study: Roadways Serving the Military and Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge. July 2013. At: http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/Roadways%20Serving%20the%20Military%20&%20Sea%20Level%20Rise
-Storm%20Surge%20Report.pdf
Kleinosky, Lisa R., Brent Yarnal, and Ann Fisher. Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge
Flooding and Sea-Level Rise. Natural Hazards, Volume 40, pp. 43-70, 2007.
Neff, Rob, Heejun Chang, C. Gregory Knight, Raymond G. Najjar, Brent Yarnal, and Henry A. Walker. Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Research,
Volume 14, pp. 207-218, 2000. (Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. Projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change, but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.)
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Nichols, Keith M., HAMPTON ROADS CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS: THE STATE OF
TRANSPORTATION IN HAMPTON ROADS 2014, June 2014.
At: http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/State%20of%20Transportation%202014%20Final%20Report.pdf
Rogers, Catriona E. and John P. McCarty. Climate change and ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Climate Research, Volume 14, pp. 245–253, 2000.( Discusses status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential management strategies, and crucial research gaps in 2000.)
Robinson, R. Michael, Barry Ezell, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, and Joseph Weiss. Cyber Risk to
Transportation Industrial Control Systems. Journal of Cyber Security and Information Systems, Volume 1
Issue 4, October 2013, pp. 2-8. (Discusses and provides simulation case study results of consequences of cyber attack on transportation ICS, including estimates of commercial impact due to lost time in transit.)
Stiles, William A. A “Toolkit” for Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Virginia. At: http://www.wetlandswatch.org/Portals/3/WW%20documents/sea-level-rise/ASCE%20Meeting%20Paper.pdf
Tompkins, Forbes and Christina Deconcini. Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Virginia. World Resources
Institute Fact Sheet.
At: http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri_factsheet_virginia_final.pdf
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Tran, Paul, Leonard Weireter, Whitney Sokolowski, Kaleen Lawsure, and John Sokolowski. HAZUS Modeling for Hurricane Effect on a Healthcare Campus: Implications for Health Care Planning. The American Surgeon ,
Volume 75, Number 11, November 2009, pp. 1059-1064(6). (Project modeled the damage sustained by the healthcare campus, in the aftermath of a hurricane, as a tool to facilitate pre- and post-storm planning for provision of healthcare services or campus evacuation. HAZUS was used to estimate disaster associated losses, storm surge, residual flooding, and wind damage. The ability of the healthcare campus to deliver services was assessed as a
function of the residual functional infrastructure. )
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Mike Robinson rmrobins@odu.edu
(757) 638-7010

Sandpiper Road, Virginia Beach
Hurricane Isabel, 2003(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
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