Competências Básicas de Investigação Científica e de Publicação Lecture 9: Trends in the STM information industry 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 1 A brief history of scientific publishing • Scientific societies first began to form the seventeenth century and grew out of informal meetings held by people interested in the new experimental science • The Royal Society began in this way in 1645 [Medical Society of Bahia established 1808] • At that time, the act of publishing academic inquiry was controversial, and widely ridiculed. It was not at all unusual for a new discovery to be announced as an anagram, reserving priority for the discoverer, but indecipherable for anyone not in on the secret: both Newton and Leibniz used this approach • As the Royal Society grew there came a point where it became easier to exchange ideas as written notes and letters. The journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society was first published in 1665. 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 2 A brief history of scientific publishing 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 4 A brief history of scientific publishing • The rapid growth in volume and types of scientific research after the second world war meant that many new journals were launched by commercial publishers • The process of peer review became widespread at this time as editors became more selective, and the volume and complexity of scientific information increased • The emergence of the internet has allowed new forms of scientific publishing to evolve • The technology underlying publishing is becoming increasingly involved in the management and accessibility of huge amounts of complex information – hence linking to bioinformatics 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 5 How is the STM information industry defined? • The sum of the commercial, not-for-profit and government entities directly or indirectly dependent on the creation and/or use of the results of scientific, technological and medical research. • e.g. higher education, knowledge industries (pharmabiotech, aerospace, etc), government. • Challenge: “The world is awash with data. The problem that professionals face is not the overabundance of information. It is the lack of good filters.” [TR] • Much of the new technology has to do with finding things 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 6 STM market statistics • There are 5000–10,000 journal publishers globally, of which around 5000 are included in the Scopus database. • There were about 28,100 active scholarly peer-reviewed journals in mid 2012, collectively publishing about 1.8–1.9 million articles a year. • The number of articles published each year and the number of journals have both grown steadily for over two centuries, by about 3% and 3.5% per year respectively. • The reason is the equally persistent growth in the number of researchers, which has also grown at about 3% per year and now stands at between 6 and 9 million. • The USA continues to dominates the global output of research papers with a share of about 21% but the most dramatic growth has been in China and East Asia. • PubMed indexes almost 21 million articles, with about 800.000 new articles added each year. 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 7 STM market statistics Total market: $29.8b; right panel does not include Geophysical: $23.5b 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 8 Scientific publishing is a very profitable 28 August 2012 Ganesha Associates 9 Some fundamental problems with the ‘print’ business model • Prices linked to the exponential growth in the amount of data being published • Subscription charge increases: 200% in last ten years - pressure on library budgets, reduction in number of subscriptions • Publisher retention of copyright and therefore control • “Excessive” profits: 35%+ profit margins • Restrictive online access - the bundle deal 28 August 2012 Ganesha Associates 11 What are the main drivers of change? • Growth in and complexity of output • Speed, scale and complexity of technological change • e.g. “omics”, massively parallel experimental designs, image-based technologies • Need to manage, coordinate, justify societal investments • Stagnation of traditional markets, breakdown of subscription business model 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 12 What are the catalysts of change? • Digital information technologies, increased importance of metadata • Reinvention of the publishing process – Open access (OA) • Spread of the “soundness not significance” peer review criterion adopted by OA “megajournals” such as PLOS ONE • Quantification of benefits – Altmetrics and the infamous Impact Factor 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 13 The emergence of Open Access Clockwise: Harold Varmus, Michael Eisen, Pat Brown and David Lipman 28 August 2012 Ganesha Associates 14 History of sequence info => open access 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 15 Key features of ‘open access’ business model • Free, immediate access online • Unrestricted use • Author retains copyright (Creative Commons licencing) • Papers are deposited in a public online archive such as Pubmed Central and Pubmed Central Europe • Author/funder pays for publication 28 August 2012 Ganesha Associates 16 Open access mandates • National Institute of Health (NIH) Public Access Policy – 2008 • Hargreaves Review of Intellectual Property and Growth – 2011 • EC says that it is aiming for 60% of all European publicly funded research articles to be open access by 2016 - 2012 • Finch Group Report – June 2012 • RCUK Policy on Open Access – July 2012, amended March 2013 • Fair Access to Science and Technology Research Act (FASTR) – February 2013 • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) – February 2013 • Green almost unanimously favoured over Gold (Exception UK) 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 19 PMC growth 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 20 OA charges 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 24 Beware: predatory publishers • Some publishers and journals have attempted to exploit the business model of open access publishing by charging large fees without providing the editorial and publishing services associated with more established and legitimate journals. • "Beall's List” sets forth criteria for categorizing predatory publications and lists publishers and independent journals that meet those criteria 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 25 PLOS ONE • PLOS ONE (originally PLoS ONE) is an open access journal published by the Public Library of Science since 2006. • It covers primary research from any discipline within science and medicine. • All submissions go through an internal and external pre-publication peer review, but are not excluded on the basis of lack of perceived importance or adherence to a scientific field. • The PLOS ONE online platform employs a "publish first, judge later" methodology, with post-publication user discussion and rating features. 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 32 PLOS ONE size and IF 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 33 Some PLOS ONE clones • • • • • • • Sage Open ca. 150 NPG Scientific Reports, ~500/y BMJ Open CoB Open Biology PLoS ONE 25k IEEE Access BMC Research Notes, BMC tot ca. 24k 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 34 STM Publisher’s response • • • • • • • Organic growth – favors OA Pricing – “big deal”, cost per download Platforms – consortia services Platforms – “content enhancement” Workflow tools and analytics Acquisitions Payer transition – APCs and value 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 40 Workflow - Article 2.0 Articles are automatically annotated to identify all chemical structures mentioned in the text. N2S conversion enables InChI look-up 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 42 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 43 14 August 2013 Ganesha Associates 44 The End! • Make sure your hypothesis is well-rooted in the current literature • Test your main assumptions at the beginning, not the end of data collection • Be clear on which journal you want to publish in and why • Make sure your writing is well-structured and that the purpose of the study is clear from the start • Aim high, and use rejection as a means to do improve 28 August 2012 Ganesha Associates 54