Enrolment Planning Model
Presentation to the HEDA User Group
November 2013
David Bleazard
Director: Institutional Planning
bleazardd@cput.ac.za
Enrolment_Plan_Nov2013_1
Objective
• To sketch the development of the HEDA Enrolment
Planning Model, from a user perspective
• To demonstrate the functionality and output of the
model
Background
• The development of an Enrolment Planning Model
was discussed at the 2012 User Group
• We had not yet received the request from DHET to
submit a plan for 2014-2019
• IDSC offered to develop an Excel-based model
• The DHET request arrived a few days later after
the User Group meeting, with a deadline of
28 February 2013
Early Development
• CPUT’s initial requirements were ambitious
– The model should combine enrolment data with data on
applications and admissions, and on resources
– It should report according to both the DHET requirements
and the University reporting structure
– It should require as little input as possible from the
envisaged end user, the academic Head of Department
Unit of Planning
• An early question related to the appropriate unit of
planning to be used in the model
• CPUT’s initial proposal was the subject (or module),
based on the need to report FTEs in the DHET
template
• Another contender was the Qualification
• In the end, it was decided to use the Approved
Qualification Description (or Approved Qual ID)
– This simplified the model for the end user, making it more
manageable than either the Qualification or Subject options
Early Planning Template
11 January 2013
CPUT Practice
• In preparing its earlier enrolment plans for
submission to DHET, CPUT had decided on an
overall growth rate and differential growth rates
between faculties, in the light of its strategic plan
• The MIS Office had then extrapolated the historical
numbers in the DHET template according to these
parameters
• A key requirement for the model was that it should
allow the same parameters to be set. The model
should then calculate projections, based on the
parameters
Growth Parameters
6 February 2013
First-time Cluster Enrolments
• The notion of First-time Cluster Enrolments (FCEs) is
a key planning construct developed for HEDA
• It refers to that group (or “cluster”) of students in an
institution who enrol for a particular qualification for
the first time in a particular year
– This number will typically be higher than the HEMIS-defined
First-time Entering students
• The Enrolment Planning Model calculated the
number of FCEs required in each year, based on
past history, in order to achieve the desired growth
rates per faculty
Offering Type
• The original plan was not to go down to the level of
the Offering Type
• In the interests of simplicity, CPUT had argued for a
distinction only between full-time and part-time
enrolments
• The Offering Type was included on request of TUT
– This was a crucial early enhancement of the model, allowing
CPUT to distinguish between enrolments for the same
Qual ID on different campuses, and between full-time and
part-time enrolments
Intervention by HoDs
• The only intervention required of the academic
Heads of Department was to interrogate the
projected FCEs and to adjust them in the light of
information they might have regarding resources
– E.g. the availability of space, of staff, or of likely in-service
training places for the students
• The original idea was that the HoDs would make
these changes themselves, within the model
– This was considered too impractical within the timeframe
– Excel tables showing the projected FCEs were distributed to
the HoDs for amendment and return to Institutional
Planning
Later Planning Template
24 July 2013
Template Graphs
The HEQSF Complication
• The Enrolment Planning Model was implicitly
premised on existing qualifications
– Based on the University’s proposed growth rates, the model
calculated the required FCEs based on the history of each
Qual ID
• The first iteration of the planning process threw up
the need to include new qualification that would be
introduced during the planning period as part of the
HEQSF re-curriculation process
• Such qualifications were not on the University’s
database and had no history
Tweaking the Model
• The Enrolment Planning Model was adjusted to allow
for the capturing of new qualifications
• Depending on the information captured, the model
calculated the required FCEs going forward
• Given the absence of any history, the default
calculation was based on the University’s average
performance
• Provision was made for the override of the default
parameters
Capturing New Qualifications
CPUT Practice
• Without thinking about it much, CPUT developed the
practice of capturing the new qualifications in upper
and lower case, whereas the existing qualifications
came out of the database all in uppercase
• This made it clear in the output of the model which
qualifications were new
• The new qualifications were provided with
provisional qualification codes, in accordance with
CPUT’s coding convention
• IDSC added an identifying prefix to the new
qualifications in the model
Beyond the Call of Duty
• An unanticipated problem was the inordinate length
of time it required (at least at CPUT) to capture
overrides to the calculated values in the model
• Problems also arose with the capturing of the new
qualifications
• In order to assist, Thys offered to capture changes
submitted to him
• As a result, he spent a number of weekends – as well
as weekdays – capturing CPUT data
Model Outputs
• The Enrolment Planning Model provides reports for
both external (DHET) and internal (CPUT) purposes
• Both the plan as submitted to DHET and a pivot table
with the internal report are available via the CPUT
MIS Portal
• The internal numbers are incorporated in CPUT’s
Enrolment Monitor dashboard
DHET Report
Internal Report
Enrolment Monitor