Inside
Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness
of NEDO Projects
Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey
Sayaka Shishido, Masaru Yamashita,
Yoshiko Yurugi and Mitsuru Takeshita
Evaluation Department
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
Introduction to NEDO Inside Products
NEDO inside products are defined as products that incorporate core technologies developed
through NEDO project results.
R&D
Pioneer in
market creation
●Taking the lead in the creation of new
markets
Strengthening
global
competitiveness
●Achieving competitive advantages
through world-leading technologies
Demonstration
projects
N
E
D
O
Government
funding
Improving
technology in a
wide range of
sectors
Management, evaluation Addressing
and selection by NEDO social issues
●Supporting technological innovation
across a wide range of industries through
basic technology development
●Addressing social issues through new
technology development
Overview of NEDO Inside Product Research
Purpose:
Estimate economic effect and social benefits of NEDO
projects
Target:
*Most recent annual sales: More than $1.25 billion
*Sales between $250 million and $1.25 billion
*Low sales, but significant social benefit
Summary of economic effect and social benefit:
① Economic effect:
Project budget, most recent annual sales, accumulated
sales over the past five years, sales forecast between
FY2011–FY2020
② Social benefit:
CO2 reduction effect, ripple effects, employment growth,
etc.
Data basis:
Questionnaire completed by companies
(Tentatively NEDO’s contributing rate is 100%.)
Official data:
① Economic organizations
② Public institutions, private research institutes
③ In cases of insufficient data, supplemental estimates were calculated using the data
above
Sales calculations:
1) Average cost of project (FY):
(total cost for a project implementation period)
(project period)
2) Most recent FY sales (FY2010):
(aggregate sales over the past five years for the target product)
(five years)
or (single year sales amounts for products with only single year sales estimates)
3)Total future sales forecast：
cumulative sales from FY2011–FY2020 based on FY2020 sales forecasts
Examples of Technological Innovations that Address Environmental and
NEDOインサイド製品が、我が国の環境・エネルギー問題解決に貢献！
Energy Issues
440 mega tons CO2/10 years
Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent)
(FY2011–FY2020)
35 billion gallons/10 years (FY2011–FY2020)
Eco-friendly cement
Wind power
Waste power
generation
Solar power
Hybrid shovels
CFC reduction
technology
Low-emission
diesel cars
Residential
fuel cells
Residential
heat pumps
Lithium-ion
batteries for EVs
and PHEVs
High-efficiency
industrial furnaces
Industrial heat
pumps
Water treatment
plants
Thermal storage airconditioning systems
Sulfur-free
light oil
High-speed
copy machines
Thermal
insulation
Sales Performance and Forecasts for NEDO Inside Products
NEDO budget outlay
Sales performance
Most Accumulate Accumulated
Project
Accumulated
recent d sales over sales forecast
*$1=80yen
costs
project costs
sales the last five (2011–2020 )
years
Unit: million $ Cost/year project period Cost/year
Photovoltaic power
Wind power
Gas turbines
Residential HP hotwater supply systems
Residential fuel cell
Blu-ray
Water treatment
High-efficiency
industrial furnaces
Low-emission diesel
cars
MEMS
Fine ceramics
Other
Total
-
73
5
44
2,169
106
665
19,808
3,299
3,214
58,053
9,125
14,873
311,691
51,341
50,125
15
193
4,250
20,000
48,125
61
15
24
1,100
76
148
150
6,353
465
375
18,125
1,650
14,546
64,423
7,475
14
100
30
446
1,329
8
53
94
706
2,875
16
6
313
154
2,131
7,208
476
131
11,528
49,798
1,526
131
49,455
174,465
8,349
13,125
252,004
825,408
pioneer in
market creation
Strengthening
global
competitiveness
Improving
technology
across a wide
range of sectors
Cost Effectiveness & Employment Growth Effect
・Sales forecast (FY2011–FY2020): $825 billion
Cost effectiveness:
○ NEDO’s budget for 50 products is about $7.2 billion.
○Corporate income tax is about $12.3 billion.
＝ $825 billion X 3.66% (pretax profit rate*) X 40.69% (effective corporate income tax rate)
* Based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises.
Employment effect: Employment growth between 107,000 and 177,000 per year
○ $49 billion (FY2010 sales) X 13.38%* (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000 (average
employee compensation) = 107,000 employees in FY2011
○ $825 billion (FY2011–FY2020 sales) X 13.38% (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000
(average employee compensation) = 1.77 million employees between FY2011-FY2020
* Ratio of personnel expenses to sales is based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises and average employee
compensation is based on the National Tax Agency’s Pay for Private-sector Employees Survey.
CO2 reduction effect: 12 products contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions
⇒ CO2 reduction effect is 440 megatons (FY2012–FY2020)
Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent) is 35 billion gallons /10 years (FY2011–FY2020)
Pioneer in Market Creation
Residential heat pump hot water supply system
Building up basic knowledge was the starting point for developing energy-saving technologies
Identifying new uses for heat pumps and development of multi-purpose practical applications,
including compact and cold climate heat pumps.
FY1984–FY2007 $193 million
Overview:
・ NEDO developed basic heat pump
technologies
from
1984,
like
mechanisms for whole heat pump
system not only CO2 use.
・ Private companies developed a
residential-use heat pump. NEDO
support to develop multi-purpose heat
pumps,
including
high-efficiency,
compact and cold climate heat pumps.
成熟
2020
売
上
（
価
格
Current
status
×
販
売
数
） 開発開始
上市
Project
時間経過
Environmental effect
Total CO₂ reductions are estimated to be
42 mega tons (FY2011–2020 )if total
heat pump sales reach 10 million by
FY2020.
Creation of markets through NEDO projects
Residential heat pump system
Forecast for heat pump market in Japan
・The introduction of heat pumps has accelerated since FY2007 due to the
increase of all-electric homes and price reductions
・The heat pumps are designed for residential use as well as industrial use.
Derivative effect
Knowledge sharing
NEDO
Project
Practical use of heat
pump systems
Capital investment
Research on high-efficiency compressors
and high-efficiency power recovery
equipment
Research on air heat exchanger
Research on compact
performance gas coolers
high8
Strengthening Global Competitiveness
Die Bonding Film
Accelerating development of practical application through collaborative R&D of
mechanisms between industry and academia.
Basic technology makes possible synthesis of materials suitable for requisite properties
FY2001–FY2007: $75million
Overview:
・Achievement of reduced
thickness, and improved
flexibility and adhesiveness
simultaneously by controlling
polymer structures at nano
levels.
・Contributed to size reductions
and improved functionality of
latest electronic devices such as
smartphones, tablets, etc.
成熟
売
上
（
価
格
2020
×
販
売
数
） 開発開始
NEDO
projects
上市
Current status
時間経過
Contributed to enhancing Japan’s competitiveness in semiconductor materials field
Presence of Japanese
companies:
Sales: $127 million/year;
greater than 50% market
share;
achieved de facto
standardization
HS Series
Example（Stacked MCP）
Products using die
bonding film
Effects
Film properties:
Ultra-thin film (10 μm) with
strong bonding properties
(peeling strength 1.0 kN/m
between 60-90°angles)
Environment:
Energy-saving as SSD’s consume lower
amounts of electricity than HDD’s.
Technology: Streamlined manufacturing
processes （multiple processes streamlined
to one bonding film process only)
Technology development: Development of
phase separation control and analysis
technology for power inverters and LED
9
light sealants.
Improving Technology in a Wide Range of Areas
Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS)
Japan is a global leader in micro machining technology as a result of R&D spanning over 20 years .
Accumulation of basic technologies
Development of multi-purpose applications through crossover activities among different fields
FY1991–FY2012: $319 million
Overview:
・R&D on MEMS started in the
late 1980’s.
Japan launched a large-scale
ten year national project in
1991 to build a technological
base for MEMS.
・R&D has been accelerated
recently to develop
applications in multiple fields.
Achievement of high-performance, lightweight devices through micro machining technology
What is MEMS?
MEMS is a micro-mechatronics
systems using semiconductor
processing consisting of miniaturized
sensors, actuators, electronic circuits
integrated onto chips.
1000
Market
900
growth
800
700
600
500
400 38
300 billion
200 yen
100
0
2010年 2012年 2014年
99
billion
yen
2016年
2018年
2020年
Development of multi-purpose uses
成熟
売
上
（
価
格
Cars
Electronic devices
engine
2020
×
販
売
数
） 開発開始
上市
NEDO projects
Current status
時間経過
mirror air bag
tire
navigation system
Manufacturing
Addressing Social Issues
High-efficiency Furnaces
NEDO supports the dissemination and promotion of eco-friendly industrial furnaces
FY1993-FY1999: $102 million
Overview:
・Achievement of more than 30%
energy saving, reductions in NOx and
size
・Adopted by steel and aluminum
industrials; accounted for more than
1/3 of industrial furnace market in
2005
・Project consortium composed of 13
companies from the same industry
・Development of multi-purpose
technologies using simulations and
databases; heat recovery has nearly
reached theoretical limits.
・Field tests conducted at 167
locations contributing to market
growth.
Development of eco-friendly industrial furnaces
フィールドテスト
事業で導入加速
Furnace cross-section
成熟
×
売
上
（
価
格
販
売
数
） 開発開始
上市
Current 2020
status
時間経過
NEDO projects
Environmental effect
CO2reduction effect: 16 million t-CO2/10 years
11
NEDO Inside Product
Stars!★
1. Solar power
Wind power
2. Gas turbines
8. Blue-ray
・high-efficiency
・heat pumps
・1980
・1984
9. Die bonding
films
10. Residential
fuel cells
・streamlining
7. High density
devices (HDD)
・cogeneration
・1992
4. Nano-ion
products
・new markets
・2001
13. EV
batteries
11. Fine ceramics
★
★★
・load leveling
・1992
★
★★
・healthy living,
eco-friendly
・2001
5.Reduction of
CFCs
・address global
warming
・1996
★★
・new materials
・1981
6. Furnaces
★★
★
・1995
★
Addressing
social issues
★
★★
★
★★
★★
・1998
Improving
technology
3. Residential heat
★★
・new media
Strengthening
global
competitiveness
pump system
★
★★
・new energy
・1981
Pioneer in
market creation
★
・energy saving
・1993
12. MEMS
★
★★
・multi-purpose
・1991
14. Water supply
(MBR,UASB)
★★
global business
・1997
Future outlook
Challenges
・More than half of NEDO inside products are viewed as ”addressing social issues”
and should not be evaluated in terms of economic profitability only.
→ In particular, as NEDO’s mission is to address energy and global environmental
problem, we need to carefully consider in-depth evaluation methods for these
products.
・As the number of materials and components in the supply chain increases, it
become more difficult to calculate the value of each unit.
・NEDO not only supports individual companies, but also aims to improve Japan’s
technological strength, therefore we should conduct evaluations in terms of valueadded to Japan’s technology base.
・We should implement evaluation methods based not only economical
viability and energy efficiency but also include benchmarks such as
reductions in environmental burdens (e.g., hazardous materials), and
improvements in user-friendliness, quality of life, levels of happiness, etc.
・Basic and infrastructure technology development is expected to become
broader and we are striving to develop evaluation methods that are
compatible with such change. Currently, we are examining interview
methods related to combustion and polymer chemistry.
Thank you!
（以下、参考）
16
「NEDOインサイド製品」 50製品リスト
＜市場創出の先駆者＞
製品名
太陽光発電
ブルーレイディスク関連
家庭用ヒートポンプ
風力発電
家庭用燃料電池
移動体用蓄電池
ロボット（清掃用、産業用等）
ガスタービン
ロボット（警備用等）
＜国際競争力のブースター＞
製品名
ハードディスクドライブ
電子材料フィルム
エキシマレーザー半導体装置
大型CAT-CVD装置
不揮発性の半導体メモリ
積層DRAM（Dynamic Random
Access Memory）
パワー半導体材料（SiC,GaN等）
宇宙用蓄電池
液晶ディスプレイ用偏光フィルム
電気二重層キャパシタ
＜幅広い分野の底上げ＞
製品名
高機能・信頼性サーバ
樹脂部品用接着剤
金属ガラス
光触媒
高性能セラミックス
MEMS
分野
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー/産業競争力
安全・安心・快適/産業競争力
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適/産業競争力
分野
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
産業競争力
分野
安全・安心・快適
産業競争力
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
産業競争力
産業競争力
＜社会的な課題解決への貢献＞
製品名
廃棄物発電
高性能工業炉
ナノイー応用製品
4次元X線CT診断装置
排ガス後処理システム（尿素SCR
システム）
低公害ハイブリッドディーゼル車
バイオ研究用顕微鏡
高効率嫌気性生物処理(UASB等)
活性汚泥法（MBR）用膜ユニット
エコセメント
電子材料用絶縁材料
液中燃焼法によるフロン破壊
産業用ヒートポンプ
真空断熱材
高速デジタル複写機
サルファーフリー軽油
冷熱蓄熱システム
省エネ型建機
短下肢装具
アスベスト代替ガスケット
半導体製造用クリーニングガス
肝炎等診断システム
糖鎖微量迅速解析システム
ノンVOC塗装システム
ホームITシステム
分野
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
環境・エネルギー
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
安全・安心・快適
将来累積売上予測の計算方法
成熟
凡例：
売
上
（
価
格
：今後 10 年間固定軸
×
A
販
売
数
） 開発開始
上市
時間経過（伸縮可変）
NEDO
プロジェクト
Ｅ
Ｘ
Ｂ
Ｃ
Ｄ
Z