LEAGUE OF INTERNATIONAL VIRAL EXPERTS
TRIAL RUN TRAINING DOCUMENT – CLASSIFIED
In order to ensure that all LIVE members understand the responsibilities before them, you are required
to undergo a trial run training exercise where you will create the Infected and Alive Models and update
a trial version of the Heuristic Outlook of Population Eradication (HOPE) Display as an individual.
These are the tools that your group will create and analyze over the course of the real viral outbreak.
This trial run will model a viral outbreak through the United States, with a population of 313,900,000
people and the largest city of New York with a population of 8,175,000. The initial infection rate (r) is
1.05% and the initial death rate (d) is 0.3%.
1. Use the formula I  t   P 1  r  to create a model for the number of people infected by the virus
t
after t days, where P is 10% of the largest city’s population
Infected Model: I  t   ___________________
2. Use the formula A  t   N 1  d  to create a model for the number of people still alive after t days
t
where N = 313900000, the United States’ national population.
Alive Model: A  t   _____________________
3. The spot where these models cross is the “Tipping Point.” At this point, all of the remaining
population will be infected, and there will be little hope of a recovery. Use the graphs of these
models to find this tipping point.
Days until tipping point: ___________
4. Decide on a scale for your Trial Run HOPE Display and carefully graph the Infected and Alive
Models. Start by plotting a few points for each, including the Tipping Point, and connecting these
dots. Record the days until the tipping point on the table at the bottom.
Weather
Classification
As the virus mutates, the geneticist and virologist will work on understanding what impact the
mutation has on the infection and death rates. The notation used to evaluate these impacts is somewhat
unusual. Look at the example below.
Trait: Resistant to Wet Weather
A
r + 0.005
The “r + 0.005” notation means that for a country classified as
A in weather, the wet-resistant mutation increases the infection
B
r + 0.0025
rate by 0.5%. Similar changes can be made to the death rate,
C
r + 0.001
though in some cases nothing will change or a rate will actually
D
r + 0.0005
decrease.
E
no change
To illustrate the changing rates in the Alive and Infected
Models, you will need to use a new pair of formulas that factor in the number of days that the virus has
passed since the infection began. These new models will be graphed onto the HOPE Display,
positioned to illustrate the fact that they are a change from the previous model.
5. MUTATION 1: Assume that a particular mutation that occurs after 50 days causes r + 0.0025 and
d + 0.001.
a. At the 50 day mark, how many people are infected (this is your new P)
b. How many people are still alive? (this is your new N)
c. What is the new value for the infection rate (r)?
d. What is the new value for the death rate (d)?
6. Update the Infected and Alive models using the formulas below
 t  DaysPassed 
 t  DaysPassed 
Infected Model: I  t   Pnew 1  r 
Alive Model: A  t   Nnew 1  d 
Infected Model: ______________________
Alive Model: ____________________
7. When drawing the new models on the Trial HOPE Display, first draw a thick vertical line through
the number of days that have passed to mark when the mutation happened (in this case, 50). Draw
the new model from where that line crosses the previous curve. Do not draw to the left of the
vertical line, as the virus had not mutated then and so that is not useful information.
8. Calculate the number of days until the Tipping Point based on the new models, and mark it on the
Trial HOPE Display.
9. Repeat this process twice more using the following mutations
a. MUTATION 2: At 150 days, a mutation causes r + 0.005 and d + 0.002
New P = ___________________________
New r = ________________
New N = ___________________________
New d = ________________
Infected Model: _______________________________
Alive Model: _______________________________
Number of days until tipping point: ______________________________
b. MUTATION 3: At 200 days, a mutation causes r – 0.008 and d = no change
10. Answer the following questions based on a nation with Infected Model given by
I  t   37,500 1.024  and an Alive Model of A  t   6, 003, 452  0.975  .
t
t
a. What is the infection rate (r) for this nation?
b. What is the death rate (d)?
c. What is the nation’s population?
d. What is the population of this nation’s largest city?
e. When is the tipping point? What will the nation’s population be at this point?
f. Would the infection be spreading more quickly or less quickly if the Infected Model were
t
instead I  t   37,500 1.004  ? How do you know?
 t 45
11. If the Alive Model for a nation were A  t   4,345, 221 0.982 
a. For how many days has the virus been spreading before its most recent mutation?
b. What was the population for this nation at the time of its most recent mutation?
c. What is the nation’s infection rate (d)?
12. For an equation of the form y  b  m  , what values of m would produce an increasing graph?
What values of m would produce a decreasing graph? What part of the graph does b represent?
x